Sketch of the decision factors

Transcription

1 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Cape Town March 28 IRRIGATION, HYDROELECTRICITY AND DRINKING WATER IN THE VOLTA BASIN OF BURKINA FASO: AN ECONOMIC MODEL TO SIMULATE PROSPECTIVE WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY Bruno Barbier Cirad / 2iE Ouagadougou Théophile Mandé 2iE Ouagadougou Patricia Aidam ZEF Bonn Socio economic context Water allocation between irrigation, hydroelectricity and drinking water for humans and animals - Expanding demand for water, power, rice and vegetables (Burkina 4 millions inhabitants by 25) - Food security still a concern for sahelian countries - Increasing gap between production and consumption - Potential for new hydrologic infrastructures but topography not favorable for dams - Water sharing between riparian countries and transfrontier externalities - Climate change Sketch of the decision factors Irrigation food security vs cash crop iiiiiiiiiiiiiii Power security iiiiiiiiiiiiiii Irrigation Risk reduction iiiiiiiiiiiiiii Gas economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 1

2 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Problem interconnexions Light Investment? Thermic power plant Home Appliances Air conditioning Dams Industries Hydroélectricity Irrigation Power Drinking water Irrigation water Fruits and vegetables Animal consumption Human consomption Irrigated rice Biofuel Rainfed crops Hydrologic balance of the Volta in Burkina Faso (billion of cubic meters) Rainfall (a + b + c) Evapotransp. (a) Infiltration (b) Runoff (c) Stored Consumed (e) Exit country(c e) Mouhoun 74,5 59,16 12,4 2,94,29,3 2,64 Nakanbé 62,3 5,82 9,37 3,8 2,2,64 2,44 Niger Source: Ministère de l'environnement et de l'eau 21 51,1 4,64 9,1 1,36,1,5,86 Comoé 19, 15,6 2,53 1,41,8,14 1,55 Total 26, 165,71 32,4 8,79 2,66 1,29 7,5 % total 1, 8,9 15,66 4,24 1,28,62 3,62 Hydrologic balance of the Volta in Burkina Faso (%) Rice production and imports in Burkina Faso 35 % 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 Exit country(c e) Consumed (e) Stored Runoff (c) Allocation Paddy equivalent in tons Production Imports years Source: Ministère de l'environnement et de l'eau 21 economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 2

3 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Urban food consumption Burkina Faso in Vegetables production Kgs/ month kilogrammes Riz Maïs Sorgho Mil Tons année 22 année 23 année 24 année milliards de FCFA in 25 Half a million of Burkinabè involved in irrigation West african markets Moyenne 6 Moyenne Quintiles Source: Savadogo and Kazianga Moyenne Oignon bulbe Oignon feuilles Chou Tomate Aubergine locale Source: Agristat 27 Volta Decision Support System Production module Mathematical programming Market module Demand function Hydro-economic module Investissement optimisation Power market (WAPP) Partial equilibrium model economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 3

4 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Production module Regional agricultural module Mathematical programming Farm typology A dozen agricultural products 13 Basins Recursive Risk aversion (target motad) Rural grain consumption Common sampling survey Survey identical to the Ghana Survey Contracted Statistica a burkinabe consultant firm 3 villages 3 farmers in the Volta Basin Database is available under MS ACCESS Used to build a typology Included in the DSS Urban food demand LES in the first MATA model Currently AIDS (Diego Nodjerim) for the major urban areas with a 1993 dataset Idem Working Leser (master Namory Koné) with the Enquêtes prioritaires 23 from INSD Hydroeconomic module 13 interlinked subwatersheds The major current dams and puming stations Ziga, Bagré, Boromo, Sourou, Kompiega Expected Samandeni, Bougouriba, Noumbiel Cost minimisation Hydroelectricity, potable water, irrigation, animal water consumption Over 5 years economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 4

5 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B 1 persons Population growth in the basin Rural Urban Streamflow in the Mouhoun sub-basin by period Crop area in the basin ye31 ye34 ye37 jach coto oig rizp rizb riz2 riz1 arac mil sorg mais Current reservoir capacity in the basins 3 4.5E E p1 p2 p3 3.5E+3 3.E+3 2.5E+3 2.E+3 1.5E+3 1.E+3 s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 mouhoun 5.E+2.E+ mouhoun nakanbe nazinon kompieg sissili economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 5

6 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Streamflow within the basin Livestock projections 4.E+3 3.5E+3 3.E+3 2.5E+3 2.E+3 1.5E+3 1.E+3 5.E+2.E mouhoun nakanbe nazinon kompieg sissili 2.E+4 1.8E+4 1.6E+4 1.4E+4 1.2E+4 1.E+4 8.E+3 6.E+3 4.E+3 2.E+3.E+ ye5 ye9 3 7 ye21 ye29 ye33 ye37 BOEUF BOVIN ANE OVINS PORC CAPRINS Crop price in FCFA per kilos Simulated dual value of land mais sorg arac land ri1 ri2 rilow rirain economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 6

7 IWRM-IHP, March 28, Cape Town - Session Economy: B Total cost to satisfy projected demand cons1 14 cons2 12 irri 1 elec_h 8 elec_t 6 elec_i 4 barrages Challenges Taking into account energy costs (cf West African Power Pool) Measuring climatic risk in the basin What institutional setting between countries? Role for VBA ye31 ye34 ye37 Thank you economic model for the Volta basin in Burkina Faso 7