Climate Change and its Negative Impacts on European Societies: an Irish Perspective

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1 Climate Change and its Negative Impacts on European Societies: an Irish Perspective. There is no surefire do-it-yourself kit. There is only risk and truth to yourself. The world where we are to make our tarry ark lies before us. Seamus Heaney Courtesy Fáilte Ireland NUI MAYNOOTH Ollscoil na Éireann Má Nuad John Sweeney, National University of Ireland Maynooth

2 John Constable : The Haywain 1821

3 The Landscape of the Haywain as it is today The Landscape of the Haywain 1821

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5 Upsala Glacier, Argentina

6 Arctic Sea Ice Autumn 2012 saw the least Arctic summer sea ice ever recorded

7 Tschudi, a Norwegian shipping company, has bought and revived an idled iron ore mine in the north of Norway to ship ore to China through the Northeast Passage. The voyage to Lianyungang in China took 21 days in 2010, compared with the 37 days typically required to sail to China through the Suez. Tschudi executives estimate they save $300,000 a trip. In 2012, the 288-metre LNG carrier Ob River became the first ship of its kind to transit the Northern Sea Route. The vessel completed the westbound voyage in only six days. 85% of vessels on the Northern Sea Route are carrying gas or oil, and 80 percent were high-capacity tankers

8 For the scientific community the debate over climate change is over Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns *( very likely = 90%) IPCC (2007)

9 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate ± ±0.018 Years /decade

10 Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Increases Decreases Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

11 Intense North Atlantic hurricanes have increased in frequency with higher Sea Surface Temperatures Marked increase after 1994 ( ) SST Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing

12 Short term pauses do not represent a long term change in trend for global temperature

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15 Natural disasters in Europe during

16 Projected changes in annual near-surface air temperature ( C) using multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations for the period (left) and (right). Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods , and (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009).

17 Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between and as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Source: EEA

18 Are we prepared to cope with greater frequencies of extreme flood events associated with climate change?

19 Elbe Flood 2002

20 Summer floods 2002: affected regions Elbe Magdeburg GERMANY # Bitterfeld Leipzig Dessau # # # # # # # # # ## # Dresden # damage area affected cities flooded river Regensburg Danube # Rosenheim # # # # # Passau # Prague # # Pilsen Salzburg # Moldau # # Linz # # # # Krems # CZECH REPUBLIC # Vienna SLOVAKIA 2004 Geo Risks Research Dept., Munich Re AUSTRIA HUNGARY

21 113,00 111,00 109,00 107,00 105,00 103, ,70 m Damage costs of the flood: groundwater 9,2B Germany. Elbe river 6,1B Saxonia 0,9B Dresden Main problems damage by surface water damage to by raised groundwater levels

22 Percentage of the city that would be flooded by a river level rise of 1 m. The background shows the relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge. (Coastal floods nor flood protection measures were considered in the calculations.

23 Ballinasloe (Credit: Sean Collins)

24 Cork November 2009

25 Percent change in simulated monthly Streamflow Boyne Mean Ensemble s 2050s 2020s 20 % Change

26 T2 T10 T25 A 2 B 2 A 2 B 2 A 2 B 2 Barrow B'water Boyne Brosna Inny Moy R'water Suck Suir 20s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s Changes in the frequency of floods of a given magnitude for each future time period. Results are based on the HADCM3 GCM using both A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units

27 Are we prepared to cope with greater frequencies of extreme temperature events associated with climate change?

28 Heat waves are increasing: an example Extreme Heat Wave Summer 2003 Europe

29 Heat Related Mortality will increase substantially across Europe The number of warm days and nights has increased across Europe in recent decades. Heat waves over the last decade have caused tens of thousands of premature deaths in Europe. Length, frequency and intensity of heat waves are very likely to increase in the future. This increase can lead to a substantial increase in mortality, especially in vulnerable groups, unless adaptation measures are taken. Heat related mortality and morbidity will increase in most parts and while this may be offset by fewer coldrelated deaths in northern Europe, this is not likely to be the case in southern Europe.

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31 European heat-wave >35,000 died Swiss Temperature Series for June-August Analysis shows it likely that most of the risk of the event is due to increase in greenhouse gases - also - by 2050, likely to be average event - by 2100, likely to be a cool event extremely rare event (Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, , Stott et al 2004, Nature )

32 Are we prepared to cope with greater frequencies of extreme storm events associated with climate change?

33 New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

34 Hurricane Sandy 2012

35 Hurricane Vince: the first fully fledged tropical cyclone to make landfall in Spain since October 9-11, 2005

36 How will European food security be affected by climate change?

37 Food Security Agricultural production will benefit from higher carbon dioxide concentrations and warmer temperatures in northern parts. However: decreasing average annual and seasonal rainfall will be a problem in many parts more sudden heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods are likely.

38 Barley yield in Ireland under baseline ( ) climate, and the change for the and scenarios

39 Potato yield in Ireland under baseline climate, and the change for the and scenarios

40 Grass yield in Ireland: winter and summer relative change with the 2055 scenario. Black: <25%; red: 25 to 100%; blue: 100 to 200%; yellow % and white >300%

41 Are we prepared to cope with the impacts of higher sea levels of approximately 1m by the end of the century?

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44 Wexford +1m OD +2m OD

45 Are we prepared to accept the changes to our biodiversity associated with climate change?

46 Bogs: Threatened Landscapes of Ireland Increased summer drying may eliminate a substantial part of the suitable climate area over the next 50 years

47 Turloughs: Threatened Landscapes of Ireland Seasonal Lakes which drain in summer when the water table falls Increased summer drying may eliminate 45% of the suitable climate area by 2055

48 Some vulnerable species in Ireland Curlew Kerry slug Irish damselfly Budapest slug Salmon Cowberry Water beetle Buzzard Arctic Char

49 The answer to all of the questions is action in a number of areas: Allowing the science to inform decision making A determined effort at mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation to protect society and ensure Europe is not a loser from climate change Political leadership prepared to face down vested interests and pursue a medium term strategic vision Harnessing the clear vision and energy of the next generation

50 RCM Modelled Temperature Changes RCM Modelled Temperature Changes

51 RCM Modelled Rainfall Changes (mm)

52 Emissions pathways to give 67% chance of limiting global warming to 2ºC Within a decade if emissions globally do not peak, the task will be almost impossible

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54 Caution is needed before jumping into potentially risky mitigation technologies In the aftermath of the Chenobyl accident in 1986, almost 10,000 upland sheep farms in Britain and Ireland had restrictions put on animal movement. These were only lifted finally in 2012, 26 years after the accident. Ireland has no plans for nuclear energy.

55 Tonnes Per Capita 2010 China 6.8 France 5.9 UK 8.1 Ireland 15.9 Germany 10.0 Czech Republic 14.6 USA 16.9 EU

56 Who can we look to to rescue us? Political Leaders?

57 Time to Circle the Waggons?

58 Where are the Cavalry?

59 These are the Cavalry!

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