Energy in the 21st Century John S. MacDonald

Transcription

1 Energy in the 21st Century John S. MacDonald February 25, 2010

2 Energy Issues Security - Dependence Environmental Concerns on Foreign Energy Climate Change Demand and Supply

3 Demand and Supply - A key Question When will the Demand for Energy exceed the gy Conventional Supply?

4 Optimistic Supply Case Primary Energy Su upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Nuclear Hydro Biomass Coal Gas Oil Year

5 Pessimistic Supply Case Primary Energy Su upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Hydro Nuclear Biomass Coal Gas Oil Year

6 Filling the Gap upply [ExaJ Joules/Yr] Primary Energy S Sources: International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Information Agency (EIA) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Hydro Nuclear Biomass Coal Gas What will fill the Gap?? Oil Year

7 Filling the Gap - 2 Solutions Increased use of Nuclear Energy Renewable Energy Sources Solar Wind Tidal Biofuel derived from biomass Geothermal Wave Small Hydro (Run of River) Large Hydro

8 Properties of Renewable Energy Secure A local energy source Environmentally Benign Inexhaustible But it is either intermittent or strongly location dependent or both

9 WBGU s World Energy Vision to 2100 y [EJ/Y] gy Suppl Prim mary Ener 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change Geothermal Other REs Solar heat Solar electricity Wind Biomass adv 400 Biomass trad Hydro-PW Nuclear PW 200 Gas Coal 0 Oil YEAR

10 Solar Energy: Area Requirements (250 km) 2 of Algerian desert covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide electricity to the ENTIRE HUMAN POPULATION The Sun provides the Earth with over 6,000 times as much energy as humans consume. Source: German Aerospace Centre (DLR)

11 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Renewable Energy Sources are either intermittent or strongly gylocation dependent. How can we create a system that can generate FIRM renewable power anywhere? 11

12 Renewable Energy System Structure Big Solar Hydro Small Blending Intermittent Wind and Wind Solar in Minnesota (example) Firm Hydro Renewable Renewable Sources Sources Biomass Geothermal Wave Tidal Large Scale Storage GRID CONTROL SYSTEM LOAD Fossil Fuel & Nuclear Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Solar Wind

13 Environmental Considerations Global Climate Change

14 Muana Loa Data - Mean CO 2 Concentration The Keeling Curve Mean CO 2 Concentration in the Atmosphere I thi th i Is this anthropogenic or part of the natural cycle of warming and cooling?

15 A Changing Climate: Anthropogenic Forcing Warming of the climate system is unequivocal - IPCC Evident from observations of: Increases in average air and ocean temperatures Widespread melting of snow and ice Rising global average sea level 11 of the 12 years from 1995 to 2006 rank among the 12 warmest years since 1850 Global Global Land Global Ocean Temperature e anomaly ( C) Temperature anomaly ( C) Temperature anomaly ( C) models using only natural forcings observations models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

16 Historic CO 2 (Antarctic Ice Core Data)

17 Historic CO 2 & CH 4 Jim Hansen, NASA

18 Arctic Changes (September Coverage) Years Later (2006)

19 Sea ice conditions in context September Sea Ice Extent September million km 2 September million km 2 September million km 2

20 Sea Ice February 1,

21 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Spring 2009 Sep 30/ Avg. Apr 19/ Avg.

22 Helheim Glacier - East Greenland 2005 (June 19)

23 Greenland Ice Loss 3 Ice Mass s (km 3 ) GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) Between 2002 and 2008 Greenland lost ~ 1,200 cubic kilometers of ice

24 The Antarctic Situation

25 Ice Shelves Larsen B Wilkins Ross Ice Shelf

26 Disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf Jan. Jan 31 31, 2002 Feb Feb , 2002 M Mar. 5, 2002 Feb.5 23, 2002 Glacier Images: NASA MODIS What happened? A 3250 km2 Antarctic ice shelf about the size of the state of Rhode Island disintegrated in 35 days. The resulting icebergs drifted out into the Southern Ocean The glaciers trapped behind the ice shelf for about 12 12, years can now flow into the sea. The conditions leading to the breakup resulted from an unusually ll warm summer in i September 2001 to January 2002.

27 Antarctic Mass Loss To infer the ice sheet's mass, ice flowing out of Antarctica's glacial drainage basins was measured using SAR interferometry over 85 percent of its coastline. Spacecraft employed: ERS - 1 (European Space Agency Radarsat - 1 (Canada) Advanced Land Observer (Japan) Rate of Antarctic ice mass loss: billion metric tonnes per year billion metric tonnes per year Antarctic ice loss between 1996 and 2006, overlaid on a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mosaic image of Antarctica. The colors indicate the speed of the ice loss. Purple/red is fast. Green is slow. (Credit: NASA)

28 Sea Ice January 9,

29 Antarctic and Arctic Ice Coverage 29

30 Global Mean Sea Level 30

31 Himalayan Glaciers

32 West Rongbuk Glacier Mt. Everest The Rongbuk glacier is the largest glacier on the north slopes of Mt. Everest.

33 Prosperity, Energy & Climate Change PROSPERITY ENERGY A policy Dilemma CLIMATE CHANGE 33

34 The Pasterze Glacier The Helm Glacier The Athabaska The Muir Glacier (Austria) (Near Whistler) (Alaska) Courtesy Gov t of BC Archives Coutesy Gordon McBean Courtesy David Suzuki Foundation