How much water we have available now, how resilient our resources are and how much water customers are likely to use

Transcription

1 Water in the Future Our vision of a secure and sustainable water supply Our Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP) sets out the measures we are proposing so that we can continue to provide customers with a safe, secure and affordable water supply in the decades ahead. The WRMP covers the following topics: Our policies aimed at putting all stakeholders at the heart of our planning process and ensuring customers continue benefit from secure water supplies How much water we have available now, how resilient our resources are and how much water customers are likely to use How we will ensure that there is enough water in future to cope with forecast population growth of 20% in the area over the next 30 years How we will manage the growing level of demand for water from both households and businesses in future whilst minimising the social and environmental consequences of supplying the water How climate change will reduce the availability of water that can be taken from the local environment The selection of measures which we believe best balances the expectations of all stakeholders and which provides a safe, secure and sustainable water supply in future How to ensure your views as a stakeholder can be represented in the planning process Your water supply now We have supplied water to customers for over 167 years. Over all that time, we have continuously invested in water resources, reservoirs and treatment works to meet the requirements of a successful and growing region. We serve a population of approximately 1.2 million people and associated businesses in an area of 1,000 square miles centred on the City of Bristol. The area of supply stretches from 1

2 Tetbury in the north to Glastonbury in the south and extends east to west from Frome to Weston-super-Mare. The water we provide for our customers comes from a mixture of sources. Half comes from Wales via the River Severn, a third is taken from the reservoirs in the Mendip Hills (Chew, Cheddar and Blagdon), and the remainder is sourced from small wells and springs across the area. These resources are sufficient to meet the current demand of around 300 million litres of water per day (300Ml/d) most of this is for household use. On average each person uses 145 litres per day (l/d) of water in our area. Our past investment in water resources and water distribution systems has provided customers with a reasonable level of supply security. In other words we have ensured that hosepipe bans and other restrictions on customer use are not likely to occur more than once in every 15 years on average. This level of service is our current commitment to our customers. Your Water Supply in the Future We have been successful in the past in meeting our customers expectations of having a secure, safe and affordable water supply. However, most people would agree that the future will bring many new challenges and opportunities that we will need to consider when planning the water supply for our customers in the future. These include: 2

3 Population growth and increased housing provision Changes in personal use of water New and existing sources of pollution affecting water sources The need to reduce the volume of water taken from the environment The ageing condition of water mains and household plumbing Climate change reducing the availability of water Over the next 25 years we expect to see a social and economic environment broadly similar to that of today: a stable democracy, increased globalisation and economic growth at the long term average of 2% per year. Through a series of consultation workshops we know our customers are aware of many of these issues. They have also told us that they would prefer to maintain, and if possible, improve our current level of service, subject to it being done at a reasonable cost. The challenge ahead In our 2009 Water Resources Plan (2009WRP) we forecast that a shortfall of water was likely within the next 10 to 15 years. Although economic conditions have changed since the 2009WRP we continue to anticipate there will be shortfall in future. The projected balance between water available and customer demand is shown on the graph below and is referred to as the supply demand balance. 3

4 In our 2009WRP we set out a programme of measures to be carried out in the period from We are on target to deliver or exceed the reductions in leakage and the increased level of customer metering set out in that plan. If take no action after 2015 to respond and mitigate the growing shortage of water in the future, our customers will no longer enjoy the current level of supply security. This will in effect mean: Greater frequency of temporary restrictions to customers water use in dry weather Higher risk of a total supply failure in a drought Insufficient water to support new business in the local community Increased individual demand for water if we do help customers use water efficiently A deteriorating pipe network resulting in increased leakage There are two primary causes for the projected increasing deficit of available water. These are: Population growth based on the Office of National Statistics projections The impact and uncertainty of climate change Both are beyond our control to influence and both will require us to adopt a flexible and effective strategy to deliver both reductions in water consumption, improving network efficiency and eventually developing additional water resources. Population The latest government (ONS) data predicts a population increase of 20% to 1.4 million people in our supply area by The housing projection will mean that the number of houses will grow by nearly 30% to 620,000 over the same period. We have used forecasts produced for government by the Office of National Statistics as the basis for our planning. However, we are also aware that the current population levels in our area have been growing significantly faster than the government s forecasts. The projected and historic population are shown on the chart below. 4

5 With an increasing population there will need to be more housing and businesses to facilitate growth. We have included these factors in our planning. Climate change The expected impact of climate change is likely to have a greater variation with a higher probability of unprecedented or extreme events. The median estimate is likely to reduce the amount of water available by up to 25 Ml/d by The uncertainty over the range of possible impacts is large and needs to be considered in our plan The assessment of climate change impacts indicates that the effects may be more significant than assessed in our 2009WRP. We have followed statutory guidance for the inclusion and analysis of future climate change effects, using the latest climate change projections provided by the government s climate change impact programme. The revised projections indicate our central estimate of climate change effect is not significantly greater than that used in our WRP09 but the range of probable extreme events has increased. The graph below shows how the impacts may vary across in the future. 5

6 Why does this affect me? In hot and dry conditions we may need to ask customers to reduce their use of water to conserve supplies. In a severe drought we may need to resort to additional measures including partial cuts to supply in some parts of the region in the worst case scenario. The actions we would take to mitigate drought impacts are set out in our Drought Contingency Plan. We do not expect these circumstances to occur often but when they do the impacts could be severe for customers. We want to avoid restrictions on customer water use (as required in the South East in early 2012) as far as possible. These are inconvenient and unwelcome for all our customers, and potentially damaging for businesses. Our research shows that our customers wish to maintain at least our current level of supply security, and they have also indicated that a period of partial supply failure is not acceptable. 6

7 Total supply security may, however, not be affordable or could have adverse environmental impacts. We will need to find ways to reduce the probability of supply cuts during a drought if this can be delivered without large impacts on water charges. Operating a water service during dry weather or drought can exacerbate environmental issues. This could prolong periods of low river levels and reservoirs being operated at very low levels. We are considering how we can help ensure that these conditions do not happen any more frequently than they do now. In our supply area customers use, on average 145 litres of water per person per day (l/c/d). This may increase by an additional 15 l/c/d in a hot and dry year. As a result of our current levels of metering, changes in planning rules and improvements in white goods technology we expect household consumption will fall in future. Unfortunately, this rate of change is not occurring rapidly enough to counteract the increases in population. We will therefore need to do more to help customers reduce the amount of water they use. What can be done to address the deficit? In our WRMP we have set out to maintain supply security at the current level so restrictions to customers use of water, such as hosepipe bans, would be expected once in every 15 years on average. This will require a variety of interventions aimed at reducing demand, reducing leakage and finding additional resources. Over 40 years ago we recognised that our supply area does not have an abundance of available water resources. As a result half our current available water is effectively imported from outside of the supply area. Initially our proposals will focus on the areas of activity set out below: Improving network water efficiency Helping customers reduce their demand for water Developing existing and additional sources of water Investigating opportunities for bulk supplies from other companies We have reviewed over 100 possible solutions and have identified a short list of over 30 feasible schemes that were analysed in detail to understand the costs and benefits of each one. They included a range of water efficiency schemes, leakage reduction schemes and resource developments. In our cost-benefit analysis, we have included all social and environmental costs and benefits including the carbon impacts associated with construction and operation. In 7

8 addition, we have asked customers and other stakeholders what their priority outcomes are, and shaped our plan accordingly. This has informed our plan and resulted in: A plan to make further leakage reductions over the planning period A plan that maintains security of supply, providing enhancement for some periods From our analysis we have identified the best options to maintain the current level of supply security as water available decreases. Our long term strategy comprises the most effective combination and timing of those options that can deliver the required outcome at the least cost. The options and implementation times we are proposing to deliver as part of a 25 year integrated strategy are set out overleaf: 8

9 OPTION DESCRIPTION Programme of work to help customers reduce supply pipe leakage Programme of work to reduce leakage by a combination of measures including pressure reduction and active leakage control 2015 Provide household water efficiency packs and advice to newly metered customers and schools 2015 Introduce selective metering on change of occupier for domestic properties 2015 Negotiate reduction of bulk transfer to Wessex Water 2019 Maintain Non-household customer audits and extend to schools 2023 Implement transfer from disused source near Wells to Cheddar reservoir 2025 Completion of a new 9000Ml reservoir at Cheddar 2025 Enable transfer from the Huntspill to Axbridge by trading licence 2030 Implement compulsory household metering for remaining households not yet measured 2033 Implement bulk supply transfer from Wessex Water Bridgwater to Weston Super Mare 2023Re-develop disused source near Gurney Slade 2039 Complete new 3500 Ml impounding reservoir in the Chew Valley area OPTION DELIVERY Offering customers a subsidy to replace a leaking supply pipe contributing to reductions in leakage A reduction in leakage of 12% from 49 Ml/d to 43 Ml/d in 2020, with further reductions beyond this Helping customers reduce their demand for water 90% metering by 2030 and reduce Per Capita water consumption to near 130 l/c/d Releasing 4 Ml/d for Bristol Water customer use in future Helping customers reduce their demand for water Increasing useable water by 2.4 Ml/d Increasing useable water by up to 16 Ml/d from existing abstractions Increasing system yield by 3 Ml/d Full metering across company area making another 1Ml/d of water available Increase water available by 10 Ml/d Increasing useable water by 1.5 Ml/d from an existing abstraction Increased water abstraction providing additional water for use by up to 8 Ml/d 9

10 What will our proposed plan deliver? Water Resources Management Plan Summary Increase the water available for our own customers from 2015 by reducing transfers to neighbouring companies Target further water efficiency activity at businesses, schools and newly metered households to help them use water wisely. Implement further reductions in leakage of 6Ml/d from 49 Ml/d to 43 Ml/d by 2020 with further reductions beyond this Increase metering of households so that 90% will have a measured supply by 2030 Return small disused, poor quality water supplies to service with new treatment facilities Deliver new resource developments when required. A new reservoir at Cheddar planned for 2025 will the first major new resource. A key element of our plan is a programme to meter properties on change of occupier. We anticipate that this will encourage more customers to use less water. The approach also reflects the views of customers that have told us they consider that overall, metering is the fairest way to pay for water. The effect of our proposals for metering and water efficiency will reduce household consumption of water at a faster rate than if we relied solely only on meter optants. To move 10

11 more rapidly would require compulsory metering. However, this might have unwanted social impacts and be seen as unfair by some customers. The graph below compares the effect of our proposals on average water demand per person over the planning period. From 2020 onwards we plan to re-develop a number of small water sources that have been uneconomic in the past due to poor water quality. These are not low cost sources, but they will help to delay the construction of larger sources, including the Cheddar Reservoir development. At present the planned requirement date for the reservoir extension at Cheddar is Although this over 10 years away, we have started the investigations data collection and consultation processes that will support a planning application later in Current calculations predict this additional water storage will make a further 16 million litres of water available per day, on average. Additionally, by constructing this reservoir we would hope to create an environmental asset for the future that also provides long term social benefits for the surrounding area. 11

12 If we implement our proposed plan as set out, we can maintain customer the current level of supply security for our customers and at the same time deliver social and environmental benefits at modest cost. The overall effect would be to: Maintain security of water supply at current levels Provide environmental assets that help to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions Help customers become aware of water use and water efficiency Improve our own water efficiency by large leakage reductions Deliver a fairer way to pay for water through metering The chart below illustrates the effect of our response to the challenge of declining water availability and can be compared to the graph on page 3. It shows that the options selected have reduced the water deficits from 2020 ensuring sufficient water available to meet dry weather demand and contingency requirements. 12

13 If you have specific enquires relating to our plan, any of the issues raised, or if you require other supporting information, you may write to us at the address below: Corporate Affairs Bristol Water PO Box 218 Bridgwater Road Bristol BS99 7AU Or Or call