Bournemouth Water. Water Resources Management Plan annual review and annual data return

Transcription

1 Bournemouth Water Water Resources Management Plan annual review and annual data return Annual Review June 2016

2 Index Index Overview Introduction Progress implementing the final WRMP14 and review of components Introduction General issues Water resources zones Level of Service Supply Deployable output Outage Bulk supply Sustainability reductions Demand Demand forecasting Per capita consumption Development of the individual household monitor Metering Leakage Water efficiency Behaviour change Climate Change Headroom and Options Actual headroom in 2014/ Options Water Balance Components Table The supply demand situation in 2015/ Review of 2015/16 out turn Report year comparison with dry year scenario Security of Supply Index Conclusions Page 2 of 19

3 Figures Figure 4.3.1: PCC comparison between Actual post MLE UMHH and MHH PCC Figure 3.1.1: Total monthly customer demand (Ml/d) Figure 3.1.2: Comparison of annual customer demand and WRMP forecast (including exports, Ml/d) Tables Table 3.4.1: Overview of installed meters for the period Table 5.1.1: Comparison of the patterns reported in previous annual return and reported year Table 5.2.1: Rainfall from Company records at Alderney treatment works and Met office Hurn station Appendices Appendix 1: Annual return Water Balance Components Page 3 of 19

4 1 Overview In July 2014 we published our statutory Water Resources Management Plan (WMRP). Our final WRMP confirmed that we have sufficient resources to meet forecast demands throughout the planning period to 2039/2040, provided that we continue our current policies for managing demand. This document is our annual review of the WRMP and is based on regulatory year end outturn data for the period from 1 April 2015 to 31 March Demand decreased from 2014/2015 with 2015/2016 being lower as a result of a wetter summer. 2015/16 had the lowest demand recorded in the past 15 years. There were no supply issues in 2015/2016. The summer was wetter and colder than the previous year. Overall 2015/16 was still a wet year; this had the effect of keeping overall demand low. We report a Security of Supply Index of 100% for the report year. We have made no changes to the components of the final WRMP following its publication in July The reported outturn figures for 2015/16 are consistent with the final WRMP and therefore there is no need to change any of the forecasts within the plan. We will continue to implement the WRMP as planned. Page 4 of 19

5 2 Introduction The Water Industry Act 1991, as amended by the Water Act 2003, places a requirement on all water companies to prepare a Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP). Bournemouth Water published its final WRMP in July 2014, setting out the measures needed to maintain the supply demand balance within the Company supply area over the next 25 years to 2039/40. The Water Act 2003 (Section 37A (5)) also states that: Before each anniversary of the date when its plan (or revised plan) was last published, the water undertaker shall (a) review its plan; and (b) send a statement of the conclusions of its review to the Secretary of State. This document is Bournemouth Water s first annual review of the 2014 WRMP. The review is based on outturn data from the Company s annual year end regulatory report for the period from 1 April 2015 to 31 March The review has been prepared in accordance with the Environment Agency guidance for undertaking the annual WRMP review 1. The guidance provides a framework to follow to: Report on the progress against our WRMP; Highlight any changes made to our WRMP; Report on the actions the Environment Agency or Natural Resources Wales and Defra or the Welsh Government have asked us to work on after we have published your final plan; Report an overall summary of the supply-demand situation. Progress on implementing the final WRMP and a review of the components of the final WRMP is set out in Section 3. A summary of the supply demand balance situation for 2015/16 is given in Section 5. The Company has not been asked to carry out any further work on its WRMP by the Environment Agency or Defra since publication of the final WRMP July This WRMP annual update is aligned with the Company annual review process and therefore the additional Appendix submission is not required. 1 Water resource management plan annual review and annual data return. Environment Agency and Natural resources Wales (April 2016). Page 5 of 19

6 3 Progress implementing the final WRMP14 and review of components 3.1 Introduction This section of the annual review reports on progress on implementing the final WRMP and a review of the components of the final WRMP as required by section 1.1 of the Environment Agency guidance. 3.2 General issues Water resources zones There have been no changes to the Company boundaries or number of resource zones following publication of the final WRMP Level of Service There have been no changes to the proposed target level of service following publication of the final WRMP14. Page 6 of 19

7 3.3 Supply Deployable output There have been no changes to deployable output following publication of the final WRMP Outage There were no changes to planned outage in the report year. The Company s outage assessment is set out in the final WRMP. The analysis was based on the observed characteristics of historic events that have affected the output available from each source. On the assumption that such events with similar characteristics could occur in the future, planned outage values at Company level of 5.6 Ml/d for dry year annual average and 4.3 Ml/d for the critical period (peak week) were derived. The historic events on which the final WRMP outage calculations were based could however re-occur in the future and constrain the output available from any of the source works. There is therefore no justification to change the outage values used in the final WRMP. There were no significant outage events during the report year 2015/16. The level of outage experienced is immaterial to our ability to supply our customers Bulk supply There is a change to bulk supply agreements following the publication of the final WRMP. The bulk supply to Wessex Water, where the anticipated volume is 1.27 Ml/d has been in place for 9 months this year and is now treated as a standard tariff Sustainability reductions There are no investigations concerning sustainability reductions within the Company supply area, therefore there is no change following the publication of the final WRMP. Page 7 of 19

8 3.4 Demand Demand forecasting There have been no changes to the demand forecast following publication of the final WRMP Per capita consumption We have continued to derive information on unmeasured consumption from our Companyspecific cul-de-sac monitor, initially set up in 1996/97. The estimated consumption by unmeasured households (excluding supply pipe leakage) this year recorded a value of 151 l/h/d against the WRMP forecast 165 l/h/d (Figure 3.4.1). When comparing the values reported in the previous year (157 l/h/d) we can see a decrease of 6 l/h/d. This is in line with expectations for unmeasured consumption. Measured household consumption decreased from 127 l/h/d to 125 l/h/d, this is lower than the WRMP forecast value of 146 l/h/d (Figure 3.4.1). We can see a steady decrease in PCC when compared to the previous year Actual Post MLE UMHH PCC Acutal Post MLE MHH PCC Figure 3.4.1: PCC comparison between Actual post MLE UMHH and MHH PCC. Page 8 of 19

9 3.4.1 Development of the individual household monitor For some years we have been developing an individual household monitor (IHM) to be used to calculate unmeasured household UMHH PCC. However, this monitor has not been used in this round of planning. Progress has been made rectifying the problems with the monitor. The uncertainty in results has been caused by self-selection of participants during the original recruitment, general attrition to measured billing and issues with both the data logging devices and associated equipment. In 2013 we commissioned RPS consultants to do a survey of 25,000 properties (including the IHM properties) for micro-component usage and occupancy. Included as part of this project they were also commissioned to do an analysis of our IHM properties. The results of this project has confirmed that there is an over representation of certain customer groups within the IHM properties. This coupled with incorrect occupancies, has caused the uncertain results that we have been experiencing for the past few years. The RPS occupancy data is consistent with the forecast occupancy data in the 2014 WRMP. At present we continue to use our Cul de Sac monitor which has provided consistent reliable data for the past number of years and is an accepted means of calculating unmeasured household PCC. We acknowledge that a functioning IHM has the potential to provide better results. However due to the Company s large headroom and decreasing demand implementing the IHM is not a priority at the present moment. Getting the IHM and related micro-component monitor up and running will be reviewed and implemented in the next round of water resources management planning. In addition, within the wider business we will be looking at allowances including consumption monitors to see where we can improve property selection, data collection and reporting. Page 9 of 19

10 3.4.2 Metering Table presents an overview of installed meters during the year 2015/2016. As it can be seen from the table the yearly goal has been exceeded by 37%. Table 3.4.1: Overview of installed meters for the period Meter Project Overview 2015 to 2020 Reason for metering 15/16 TOTALS YTD Overall Meter Target Selective meters installed Meter optants installed Target Totals Actual Totals Selective metering Over the reporting year we continued to fit meters on change of occupier. We also have a policy of metering customers who we know have prescribed high water usage items such as power showers and swimming pools. Our entry for selective meters installed (line 2 in Table 3.4.1) represents this category of customer. The number of selective meters has again decreased this year and although we have installed 1096 meters, this represents a decrease of 253 meters from last year. We believe that the lower numbers this year has been due to the prolonged financial conditions causing less movement in the housing market, our low level of bill combined with a price freeze and also the fact that due to our high meter penetration the number of occupier changes of non metered properties is falling year on year. We have publicised our policy through: regular articles in our newsletters, our website and metering-related literature. We also continue to add a statement regarding our policy on our reply to solicitors when they request a search. This was agreed with Wessex Water and Southern Water who have put a statement regarding this policy in any of their replies to searches. Customers are informed at the time of their initial contact if by phone that we will survey the property with a view to fitting a meter. A letter is also sent confirming our policy. We plan a Page 10 of 19

11 delay of 2 days from the date of new owner/tenants occupation, giving the new occupier time to contact us with any questions Leakage Total leakage (pre Maximum Likelihood Estimate MLE) for the year was Ml/d, this is already below the 2020 regulatory target of 20 Ml/d. The main focus on reducing leakage has been pressure management. The project was introduce as a phased approach where Phase 1 was a trial to see if the benefits identified were achievable, hence the highest benefits came from phase pressure management valves (PMV) were installed during phase 1, and 62 during phase 2. As the number of PMVs installed during phase 2 was significantly higher when compared to phase 1, this phase gave the next most benefits in leakage and overall volumes Water efficiency We have continued to follow our demand management strategy, the key component of which is metering. In addition to meter options, we undertake compulsory metering for garden sprinkler users and those with swimming pools. We also exercised our right to meter properties on change of occupier although we have agreed to change our approach and to encourage customers to have a meter installed, rather than requiring them to do so. This includes a programme of opportunistic metering where we install meters at unmetered properties during pipe renewal schemes and advise customers that they may opt to be billed on a metered basis as a matter of choice. For AMP6, we set ourselves a target to reduce per capita consumption (PCC) to 140 l/d by Our metering and education programme, together with a mild summer, resulted in us exceeding this target in 2015/16, ending the year with a PCC figure of l/d. We continue to offer customers devices such as tap and shower flow restrictors, cistern displacement devices and shower timers to help them save water, although uptake continues to fall. Education As changing behaviour associated with water use will have the greatest impact and long-term benefit, we have refreshed our education programme which has been running since June Getting involved in our local schools not only serves to better inform the public about Page 11 of 19

12 water efficiency to help change consumption patterns, it enhances our reputation as an organisation serving the community and caring for the environment. Early in 2015, we appointed Life Education Wessex (LEW) as our delivery partner for our bespoke Waterwise education programme available free to all schools within our area of supply, and which is integrated into the school curriculum. LEW, with whom we have a longstanding relationship, is a local charity dedicated to educating children about healthy living. With their knowledge and experience of the local school community, they began to deliver our programme in March 2015 and in the past year, delivered 44 sessions, up from 28 delivered by our previous partner in the preceding year. Feedback from teachers whose pupils have attended these sessions is universally favourable, but the best indication we have of our objective being achieved comes from parents who tell us that their children are now policing their home water usage! In addition to our Waterwise programme, we continue to build relationships with local schools in other ways. For example, in regularly hosting school visits to our treatment works and getting involved in STEM, enterprise challenges and career events. We consider time spent with schools an excellent way to get involved with the local community and to ensure that the efficient use of water becomes second nature to our next generation of customers Behaviour change The impact of water efficiency promotions is difficult to measure. We are confident that we are helping to change customers views toward use of water by promoting water efficiency messages. This has contributed to, we believe, the lower peaks in demand experienced in past years. This year we incorporated water savings tips and a self-audit in our Water Matters newsletter that went out to all customers in spring 2014, this included an offer for free water efficient devices. We delivered copies to all domestic customers including indirectly metered customers which include those customers who are supplied through a bulk meter such as found at a mobile home park. For the purpose of BSWE targets we only count metered household properties in the calculation of savings as they have an incentive to be water efficient. We promote water efficiency to our domestic customers by means of the following: The in-bill Your Water Company 2014/15 booklet; press releases and advertisements in the local press; Page 12 of 19

13 Our website (which includes all the information provided in the literature given out to customers; Talks to local special interest groups; Local energy and environment exhibitions. We also attended events and give talks to schools and community organisations to promote metering and water efficiency. We have distributed copies of Your Water, a publication we have had printed explaining water treatment from start to finish, and how it should be used wisely. These are given to all recipients of our water efficiency programme to re-enforce the message of the session. We distributed information on water efficiency, free low flow shower heads and save-a-flush bags at all water efficiency talks and events. In addition to these measures we show nonmetered customers the size of a projected bill for their homes based on average consumption for the number of occupants living there compared with their current bill to see if there are any financial benefits of them having a meter. Talks and events attended in 2015/16 Green Week hosted at Bournemouth University, The Christchurch Food and Wine Festival, The Bournemouth Natural Science Society s open day, Sustainable Business Leaders events including Climate week, Happy Healthy Living event at Bournemouth School for Girls, Fresher s Week at Bournemouth University, Water efficiency events at a number of customers premises. Page 13 of 19

14 3.5 Climate Change There is no change during the reporting year. As per analysis conducted for WRMP14 all our sources remain licence constrained. 3.6 Headroom and Options Actual headroom in 2014/2015 Actual headroom in year end return was Ml/d for the dry year annual average scenario compared with the forecast of Ml/d. The actual values are therefore in line with the planned headroom allowances included in the final WRMP. No changes to the final WRMP are required Options The baseline supply-demand balance presented in the final WRMP 2 shows that the Company has sufficient supplies to meet forecast demands throughout the planning period to 2040/45, provided that we continue with our present policies for managing demand that we have consistently followed since the late 1990s. It follows that no new measures are needed either to reduce demand or to increase resources during the planning period. We will continue to fit meters where customers opt for them; We must continue to keep leakage at or below our Committed Performance Level (Ofwat target level), (recognising that the targets may change in the near future); and We will continue to promote and implement measures to improve the efficiency of water use where it is economic and cost-effective to do so. 4 Water Balance Components Table A completed copy of our Water Balance Components table is presented in Appendix cuments%20september%202014/final_water_resources_management_plan_2014_techni cal_report.pdf Page 14 of 19

15 5 The supply demand situation in 2015/ Review of 2015/16 out turn The main movements in the components of water delivered in 2015/16, compared with the previous year, are as follows: An on-going increase in water delivered to measured households, compared to last year, by 1.1% from Ml/d to Ml/d. A corresponding decrease in water delivered to unmeasured households by 9.6% from Ml/d to Ml/d. Some of the data continue the patterns reported in previous annual reviews, as shown in the table below (Table 5.1.1). A change in billing system and corresponding data cleansing is the only cause of inconsistent trends. Table 5.1.1: Comparison of the patterns reported in previous annual return and reported year. Measured households Unmeasured households Distribution input Change from 07/08 to 08/09 Change from 08/09 to 09/10 Change from 09/10 to 10/11 Change from 10/11 to 11/12 Change from11/ 12 to 12/13 Change from12/ 13 to 13/14 Change from13/ 14 to 14/15 Change from14/ 15 to 15/ % +6.4% +5.3% +1.08% % -6.8% -2.7% -8.01% % -1.0% +0.9% -3.28% Distribution input is 2.8 % lower than the preceding year. Summer peak demand was lower due to the increased rainfall over this period. Overall distribution input remains on a downward trend. This is clearly illustrated in the Figure 5.1.1, which shows the trend in monthly actual distribution inputs ( Present). Page 15 of 19

16 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Water Resources management Plan Annual review Total distribution input Ml/d Water available for use (critical period) Water available for use (dry year) Figure 5.1.1: Total monthly customer demand (Ml/d). We still believe that customers are changing attitudes and behaviour towards water use that this will lead to further reductions in demand over time / / / / / / /16 Dry year forecast Actual Figure 5.1.2: Comparison of annual customer demand and WRMP forecast (including exports, Ml/d). Page 16 of 19

17 5.2 Report year comparison with dry year scenario Dry year forecasts take summer rainfall and temperature from April-September into account. In a dry summer we expect to see an increase in temperatures and a decrease in rainfall. These have been shown to increase demand. Table 5.2.1: Rainfall from Company records at Alderney treatment works and Met office Hurn station. Year Annual Rainfall [mm] Summer Rainfall [mm] April-Sept JR JR JR JR JR JR AR AR AR14* AR 15* AR 16* *From Met Office Hurn station historical data (Hurn is geographically close to Alderney) The 2015 summer rainfall of 391 mm was higher than the WRMP dry year rainfall threshold of 225mm and higher than the LTA of mm*. When compared with the previous year, the summer was in general wetter. Met Office data also showed a mean monthly maximum temperature for April-September during 2015 of 18.3ºC. We can see that the summer monthly maximum temperature was low When compared with the previous year where it was 19.3ºC and a dry year such as 2006 where it was 20.1ºC*. 5.3 Security of Supply Index Security of supply in the Bournemouth and Hale zones are the same as a result of a past successful completion of a link between the resource zones. Consumers in Hale now share a Page 17 of 19

18 100% SoSI with those in the Bournemouth zone and we therefore report only one zone as per the 2014 WRMP3. The SoSI of 100% for the single zone now known as the Bournemouth zone is consistent with our FBP/FD supply demand annual outputs. 6 Conclusions This review confirms that demands continue to remain low as can be seen from measured and unmeasured household per capita consumption; There have been no issues regarding supply in 2015/2016. Summer rainfall was above the dry year threshold and corresponding summer peak demand was lower than the preceding year; Security of Supply index has been reported as 100%; The Company has made no changes to the components of the WRMP following its publication in July 2014; The reported outturn figures for 2014/2015 are consistent with the final WRMP and there is no need to change any of the forecasts within the final WRMP. 3 on%20pd.pdf Page 18 of 19

19 Appendix 1: Annual return Water Balance Components ANNUAL RETURN - WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS Issued April 2016 Water Company: Bournemouth Water Number of resource zones: 1 Year of data submission: 2015/16 Row numbering in line with WRMP structure SUPPLY Resources Component Units DP Data requirement Resource zone 1 data 1AR Raw water abstracted Ml/d 2dp Required AR Raw water imported Ml/d 2dp Required 0 3AR Potable water imported Ml/d 2dp Required 0 Free text 4AR Raw Water Losses and Operational Use Ml/d 2dp Required 3.09 Rapid gravity filter backwash. 5AR Raw water exported Ml/d 2dp Required 0 5.1AR Non potable water supplied Ml/d 2dp Required 0 6AR Potable water exported Ml/d 2dp Required 0.77 Export critchel and corfe hills. 7AR Deployable output Ml/d 2dp Optional Process Losses 9AR Treatment works losses and operational use Ml/d 2dp Optional AR Outage experienced Ml/d 2dp Required 0 DEMAND 11AR Distribution input Ml/d 2dp Required Consumption 23AR Measured non household - consumption Ml/d 2dp Required AR Unmeasured non household - consumption Ml/d 2dp Required AR Measured household - consumption Ml/d 2dp Required AR Unmeasured household - consumption Ml/d 2dp Required AR Measured household - pcc l/h/d 0dp Required AR Unmeasured household - pcc l/h/d 0dp Required AR Average household - pcc l/h/d 0dp Required AR Water taken unbilled Ml/d 2dp Required AR Distribution system operational use Ml/d 2dp Required 1.09 Leakage 34AR Measured non household - uspl Ml/d 2dp Required AR Unmeasured non-household - uspl Ml/d 2dp Required AR Measured household - uspl Ml/d 2dp Required AR Unmeasured household - uspl Ml/d 2dp Required AR Void properties - uspl Ml/d 2dp Required 0.13 Total mains and trunk mains leakage (Distribution 39AR Ml/d 2dp Losses) Required AR Total leakage Ml/d 2dp Required AR Total leakage l/prop/d 2dp Required CUSTOMERS Properties 43AR Unmeasured household - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Measured household - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Unmeasured non household - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Measured non household - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Void household - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Void non households - properties 000's 3dp Optional AR Total properties 000's 3dp Optional Population 50AR Unmeasured household - population 000's 3dp Optional AR Measured household - population 000's 3dp Optional AR Unmeasured non household population 000's 3dp Optional AR Measured non household - population 000's 3dp Optional AR Total population 000's 3dp Optional Occupancy 55AR Unmeasured household - occupancy rate h/pr 2dp Optional AR Measured household - occupancy rate h/pr 2dp Optional 2.15 Metering 57AR Total Household Metering penetration (incl. voids) % 2dp Required 68.15% Total numbers of household meters installed 000's 3dp Required % Page 19 of 19