Optimizing energy production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil

Transcription

1 Optimizing energy production in sugarcane biorefineries in Brazil Dilip Khatiwada, PhD Energy and Climate Studies/Department of Energy Technology KTH Royal Institute of Technology 8 October,

2 Presentation outline Introduction Sugarcane energy systems Research questions??? Methodology: BeWhere model Technological options Data sources/inputs of the model Results and discussion Conclusion 2

3 Introduction Sugarcane energy systems in Brazil 3

4 Sugarcane and ethanol production in Brazil Source: UNICA, 2012 Sugarcane for sugar: 44% Sao Paulo contributed with 58% (360 MT) 56% of ethanol is produced in Sao Paulo We can convert all sugarcane mills located in SP into biorefineries dedicated for energy production (i.e., juice ethanol, bioelectricity and/or second generation ethanol Sugar can be produced from other states/regions in Brazil 4

5 Sugarcane bioenergy systems Bagasse 25-35% Electricity kwh/t-cane Sugarcane One tonne Trash 25-30% Juice Sugar Molasses Ethanol liters/t-cane 9-14% 4-5% by-product Energy equivalent: 1 tonne of sugarcane = 1.2 barrel oil (source: UNICA, 2008) 1.2 boe = 7034 MJ = 168 koe 5

6 Sugarcane biorefinery Adopted from Grisi et al. (2011) with modifications 6

7 Research questions??? How can we optimally produce energy services from sugarcane biomass in Brazil? Does 2 nd generation ethanol compete with bioelectricity production? How will policy influence production of 2 nd generation ethanol in Brazil and export to the EU? 7

8 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production The BeWhere model for Brazil A schematic diagram of the BeWhere model for sugarcane biorefinery in Brazil It is a mixed integer linear program, techno-economic model Objective function is to minimize Σ(Total cost) + Σ(Total emissions) * (Carbon cost) It provides the optimum locations of biorefinery in terms of technology, investment, prices, and total fuels chain environmental burden/costs Does not maximize the profit of a plant but considers the total cost of the whole supply chain for the welfare of the region 8

9 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production The BeWhere model for Brazil Data source/model inputs Size and location of existing sugarcane mills in the state of Sao Paulo in Brazil (60% of the total cane production) Feedstock availability Size and location sugarcane mills Costs and emissions of biomass production Annualized investment and O&M costs Conversion efficiencies Costs and emissions during biomass/biofuel transportation Emission factors of avoided transport fuel and/or power Prices of fuel and power 9

10 Sugarcane biorefinery: schematic diagram 10

11 Data source/model inputs 11

12 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Key findings Results of the reference scenario Share of lifecycle costs and emissions in the biofuel supply chain Optimal to produce 2 nd generation ethanol in all plants 2 nd generation ethanol export contributes to 2.5% of the transport fuel share in the EU Avoided emissions: 81 MtCO 2eq y -1 (i.e. 79% savings) 12

13 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Scenario analysis Investment and O&M costs Plant efficiencies: Technological innovation Price of fuels and power Biofuel support Carbon tax Biofuel target in EU and Brazil 13

14 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Key findings Market and technological impacts Type of marginal electricity (left) and investment cost (right) with low EU fossil price Export is set by gasoline price in the EU Type of biorefinery highly sensitive to electricity source (i.e. natural gas or coal) in Brazil High 2 nd generation ethanol investment cost favors bioelectricity option 14

15 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Key findings Policy impacts Impact of biofuel support (left) and carbon tax (right) Increase of biofuel support, plants shift towards 2 nd generation ethanol option Increase of carbon tax, bioelectricity option selected 15

16 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Conclusions Biofuel support and higher fossil fuel price in the EU help promote the production and export of 2 nd generation ethanol from Brazil Increased price of electricity from fossil sources will promote bioelectricity production Technological innovation/improvement in conversion efficiency will determine 2 nd generation ethanol and/or bioelectricity option 16

17 Optimizing biorefinery for energy production Future works Further investigation on stand alone, clustered, and integrated sugarcane biorefineries To develop the BeWhere model for identifying the optimum size/location of the future sugarcane biorefineries, also considering alternative configurations and feedstocks Linkage to the BeWhere Europe model 17

18 Collaborators and Funders International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis The Swedish Research Council Formas 18

19 Thanks for your attention! Comments & questions are welcome!! Contact: 19