Optimizing bioenergy supply chains: the BeWhere model

Transcription

1 Optimizing bioenergy supply chains: the BeWhere model P.Patrizio, S.Leduc, S.Mesfun, P.Yowargana, F.Kraxner Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM)

2 Outline Background Model description Input data Example of case studies Online application Capacity building 2

3 Background Bioenergy is promoted as a key to reach the 2020 renewable targets Biofuels currently constitute the major option regarding renewable energy in transport. Increased use of biofuels is not without complications: uncertainties regarding CO2 mitigation potential and issues related to ecosystem conservations 3

4 Background: Economy of Scale 4

5 General BeWhere structure Domestic biomass Sawmill residuals Biomass import Biomass Forest industries CHP Existing industries New bioenergy plants Heat & power Transport fuel Demand Fossil fuel Biofuel Import Reference system Existing flows Environmental constraint Optional flows 5

6 BeWhere Model Techno-economical model, geographic explicit Spatially explicit to 0.5 grid cell Mixed integer linear program (GAMS) Static - yearly basis, with fluctuation of heat demand over the year Minimize the total cost of the whole supply chain for the region s welfare min [ Cost + Emissions * (Carbon Tax) ] Does not maximize the profit of a plant 6

7 BeWhere answers Size and locations Technology mix Policy tool Economic incentives Biomass flow Biofuel trade Total costs and emissions Carbon penalty RES potential Economic potential 7

8 Input Data Protected areas Existing plant Fossil fuel price Emission factors Feedstock Production sites Demand Distribution Distribution Availability Location Cultivating cost Road network Train network Transport cost Technical param. Setup costs O&M costs Road network Train network Energyinfrastructure Transport cost Heat Transport Electricity 8

9 GIS data: feedstock availability Karthikeyan et al. (2014) 9

10 GIS data: transport network Karthikeyan et al. (2014) 10

11 Techno-economic data 11

12 BeWhere Applications 12

13 BeWhere Applications 13

14 BeWhere Applications 14

15 BeWhere Applications 15

16 The BeWhere Umbrella Forest resources Crop residuals Biofuel MSW Heat Algae Biochar Solar Fertilizers Wind Biogas Hydro Power Ecosystem services Power to liquid/gas Co-firing Electrobus Geothermal BECCS 16

17 Results 17

18 Sweden: Biofuel production target 2 TWh/y 4 TWh/y 6 TWh/y Wetterlund et al. (2013) 18

19 Sweden: Ethanol Production Cost ( /GJ) Leduc (2009) 19

20 EU: Optimal methanol production Wetterlund et al. (2012) 20

21 Latest BeWhere Version Alpine regions: - optimal localization of bioenergy production plants, solar PV plants, wind parks, and hydropower stations - Eco- system services protection EuropePlus (28 + Balkans regions) - 18 technologies for heat/power and biofuel production - 15 type of agricultural feedstock BECCS in INDONESIA Electro-bus in Stockholm: - optimal distribution of charging infrastructure for electric bus - exploring synergies with biofuels currently in use and different bus charging technologies. 21

22 Alpine case study 22

23 National Park National Park National Park National Park - Core Area National Park - Integrale Reserve Alps Convention Serrano León et al. (2015) 23

24 Nature Reserve Nature Reserve Nature Reserve Alps Convention Serrano León et al. (2015) 24

25 Natural Park Natural Park Natural Park Alps Convention Serrano León et al. (2015) 25

26 Particular Protection Particular Protection Serrano León et al. (2015) 26

27 Particular Protection Particular Protection Biosphere Park Biosphere reserves Biotope Protection Order Dry Grasslands Ecological Important Area Emerald Sites Federal Hunting Reserves Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I* Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of * Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures * Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa* Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Fenlands of National Importance Flora Protection Area Forest Biological Reserve Forest Reserve Horticultural Monument Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur* Landscape Park Landscape Protection Area Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo* Mire Landscapes of National Importance National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve Natural Monument Natural Monument or Site Serrano León et al. (2015) 27

28 Natura 2000 Natura 2000 Natura 2000 Alps Convention Serrano León et al. (2015) 28

29 UNESCO Protection UNESCO Protection UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Alps Convention Serrano León et al. (2015) 29

30 IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN Categories Ia Strict Nature Reserve Ib Wilderness Area II National Park III Natural Monument or Feature IV Habitat/Species Management Area V Protected Landscape VI Protected Area with Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Serrano León et al. (2015) 30

31 IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN Categories Ia Strict Nature Reserve Ib Wilderness Area II National Park III Natural Monument or Feature IV Habitat/Species Management Area V Protected Landscape VI Protected Area with Sustainable Use of Natural Resources UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Natura 2000 Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC. 31

32 Harmonized Protected Areas Scenario 1 General protection level Production restrictions High protection Medium protection Low protection Serrano León et al. (2015) 32

33 IUCN Categories IUCN Categories Ia Strict Nature Reserve Ib Wilderness Area II National Park III Natural Monument or Feature IV Habitat/Species Management Area V Protected Landscape VI Protected Area with Sustainable Use of Natural Resources UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Natura

34 JECAMI 34

35 BECCS in Indonesia 35

36 Biomass and managed forest Produced from G4M Harvest potential per year 10% used for biofuel production

37 Feedstock Assumptions Only forest biomass used Competition with pulp & paper mills Wood demand for pulp = 40 Mm 3 /a to be met first Max allowed fraction of increment to be used 20% or 50% Natural parks and protected areas are excluded. PJ Mm 3 Managed 8, Unmanaged 4, Total Forest Biomass in Indonesia

38 Pulp & Paper Mills

39 CHP - only managed 20% increment # plants with suitable storage access Captured CO2 at 80% capture efficiency Carbon 5 US$/ton 1,185 MW 2.5 Mt CO2/yr 12.5 mill. US$ Only a small fraction of Indonesia s emission reduction target, but much bigger if allowing for bundling, taking into account other feedstocks (only managed forest used now) and adding other technologies (relatively low cooling demand now).

40 Electro-bus in Stockholm 40

41 Bus electrification: a challenge S1 S2 S3 d1 d2 - Multiple lines crossing a station - Charging time need to be considered - Harmonizing charging time and bus schedule 41

42 Electro-bus 526 lines Electric Conductive Inductive Biodiesel 11,436 stations 42

43 Bus station as biomass terminals? S1 S2 S3 d1 d2 43

44 Bus station as biomass terminals? S4 Ter2 S5 S3 Ter1 Plant S2 - Optimal terminal location/ size - Transport requirements S1 - Multiple supply points/transport modes - Different biomass type - Balance biomass flows/plant demand - Distance matrix (from the supply to the plant) - Truck loading time 44

45 BeWhere and YSSP

46 BeWhere Thesis Leduc, S. (2009) Development of an optimization model for the location of biofuel production plants. Schmidt, J. (2009) Cost-effective CO 2 emission reduction and fossil fuel substitution through bioenergy production in Austria: a spatially explicit modeling approach. Wetterlund, E. (2012) System studies of forest-based biomass gasification. Slegers, PM (2014) Scenario studies for algae production. Campana, PE (2015) PV water pumping systems for agricultural applications. Patrizio, P (2016) Prospects for agricultural biogas as a vehicle fuel in Northern Italy Khatiwada, D. (2013) Assessing the sustainability of bioethanol production in different development contexts a systems approach Mesfun, S (2016) Process integration to increase woody biomass utilization for energy purposes Karthikeyan, K (2016) Potential of forest based bioenergy in Finland. 46

47 Thank you! 47