The Risks from Sellafield and the UK New Nuclear Vision to Ireland. Nuclear Free Local Authorities. Why is is it Important?

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1 The Risks from Sellafield and the UK New Nuclear Vision to Ireland NFLA Annual Policy Seminar, Dublin Dr Paul Dorfman Nuclear Free Local Authorities NFLA invited by Environmental Protection Agency to join Radiation Advisory Committee. Why is is it Important? Represents the concerns of local authorities and environmental groups over the health risks of low level radiation in the Irish Sea and wider concerns in the event of a major nuclear accident in the UK. Representing such views at the highest level.

2 Irish Environmental Protection Agency Sponsor in Government is Department of Environment, Community and Local Government. EPA is an independent public body. Powers to act derived from EPA Act (1992) & the Radiological Protection Act (1991). Statutory obligations in Acts and National Regulations. Freedom to act on own initiative. Role of Office for Radiation Protection (ORP) National Emergency Plan for Nuclear Accidents (NEPNA). Framework for Major Emergency Management (lead by DECLG). National contact point. Measurement and Assessment. Technical Advice. Radiation Advisory Committee in EPA Structure Advisory Committee - Director General & Directors. Office of Radiological Protection. Office of Environmental Enforcement. Office of Climate, Licencing, Research & Resource Use. Office of Environmental Assessment.

3 Stakeholders Irish Government. Government Departments. Medical Institutions. NGOs. Citizens. Industry.

4 Hinkley Point C Wylfa Reactor Accidents Reactor accidents are the single largest financial risk facing the nuclear industry. Far outweighing the combined effect of market, credit, and operational risks.

5 Fukushima Health Impacts Too Early to Tell Cancer Induction Time-Lag Japanese regulators raised dose constraints to 20 msv/yr - subjecting schoolchildren to exposures normally only tolerated by adult nuclear workers. Economic Social Research Institute The Potential Economic Impact of a Nuclear Accident - An Irish Case Study. otential%20economic%20impact%20of%20a%20 nuclear%20accident%20- %20An%20Irish%20Case%20Study%20ESRI.pdf The Potential Economic Impact of a Nuclear Accident - An Irish Case Study A nuclear disaster in northwest Europe could cost Ireland 161 billion. Agricultural production would grind to a halt, with the tourism industry and exports also incurring substantial damage.

6 Even the most benign scenario considered by ESRI, where no contamination occurs - total loss estimated at 4 billion. By comparison, total value of corporation tax collected in the first nine months of the year was 4.16 billion. The report says their analysis underestimates true extent of cost to the Irish economy. Health risks from high levels of contamination could put a significant strain on the health service. Total cost of a low-level contamination scenario, which requires the imposition of food controls to reassure the public, would cause restrictions on food imports from Ireland, would be 18 billion.

7 The impact on tourism would also be significant, with long-term reputational damage resulting in an economic cost of 80 billion. Worse Case Scenario Not only would exports be decimated but the need to import much of the country s food would lead to far higher domestic costs. There could also be significant emigration. Under this worst-case scenario, the estimated economic loss was 161 billion. Forthcoming Report on Health consequences of an Accident in Sellafield. To be published 5 Dec Based on a Probablistic Risk Assessment from Sellafield. Key findings: No significant health risks.

8 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Black Swans Beyond design-based cascading accidents. Japanese Fukushima Investigation Committee The accidents present us with crucial lessons on how we should be prepared for incidents beyond assumptions.

9 EDF EPR Nuclear Safety Case For the very worst reasonably foreseeable event, including terrorist attack, the maximum rate of release in the form of a containment bypass would not exceed 0.03% of the reactor core volume per day. UK National Security Strategy All UK civil nuclear infrastructures are uniquely implicated in all four tier-one threats. Sods Law: Accidents Happen Accidents are accidental.

10 Espoo Convention UNECE Global Warming Nuclear sites, based on the coastline, may need considerable investment to protect them against rising sea levels, or even abandonment or relocation in the long term. UK Institute of Mechanical Engineers Meanwhile

11 The Renewable Evolution Low carbon renewable energy is a growing economic sector with huge potential for job creation. Flexible, safe, productive, cost-effective and affordable technologies. Solar will become the dominant electricity source around the world as it beats conventional fuels. Generating $5 trillion in revenue over the next 15 years, and displaces large amounts of fossil fuels. 50% reduction in solar costs over last 5 years. Wind Power Worldwide wind power added 51GW in New additions represented 44% year-on-year growth. Wind's cumulative installations to GW at the end of Majority of the development came from China, with 23.35GW of new wind power installed.

12 German Energiewende As the first big industrialized nation, we can achieve a transformation toward efficient and renewable energy - with all the opportunities that brings for exports, developing new technologies and jobs. Angela Merkel

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14 Thank You