SOUTH AFRICAN COAL ROADMAP
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1 SOUTH AFRICAN COAL ROADMAP The True Cost of Electricity Options and the Choices for South Africa Fossil Fuel Foundation: South Conference 15 Ian Hall: Chairman, SA Coal Roadmap Steering Committee
2 CONTENTS Coal: global perspective Coal: the SA context Why coal? Conclusion SA Coal Roadmap 2
3 CONTENTS Coal: global perspective Coal: the SA context Why coal? Conclusion SA Coal Roadmap 3
4 CONTEXT issues affecting the industry and to present some key actions required for the benefit of all in South Africa rather than its individual stakeholders * A future where there is a resilient, diversified supply of sufficient, affordable electricity is desirable This objective is shared by the participants of the SA Coal Roadmap Key objectives must be met Sufficient, affordable Access to electricity for all its citizens (energy poverty is still widely prevalent) part, for a long time coal will be part of the future electricity mix and a very large * The SA Coal Roadmap and its supporting reports are available on the websites of the Fossil Fuel Foundation ( or the South African National Energy Development Institute ( SA Coal Roadmap 4
5 ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH Since the start of the 21st century, coal has dominated the global energy demand picture Mtoe Renewables Oil Natural gas Total non-coal Coal Coal alone accounted for 45% of energy demand growth over Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 SA Coal Roadmap 5
6 THE LONG-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK Primary energy demand will increase by over one-third between 2010 & 2035 (IEA New Policies Scenario) Mtoe Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario Growth is underpinned by rising living standards in emerging economies Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 SA Coal Roadmap 6
7 EMERGING ECONOMIES DRIVE ENERGY MARKETS Rising living standards in China, India and the Middle East SA also aspires to raising living standards 100% 80% 60% 40% Mtoe Mtoe Mtoe Non-OECD Rest of non-oecd Middle East India China OECD 20% Share of global energy demand Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 SA Coal Roadmap 7
8 COAL DEMAND WILL CONTINUE TO GROW Coal will retain second place as source of primary energy and first for electricity generation Mtoe World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear Fossil fuels account for 60% of increase in demand, remaining the principal sources of energy worldwide Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 SA Coal Roadmap 8
9 ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX WILL CHANGE But coal will remain the largest source of electricity generation TWh Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil Growth in coal generation in emerging economies outweighs a fall in the OECD Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 SA Coal Roadmap 9
10 CONTENTS Coal: global perspective Coal: the SA context Why coal? Conclusion SA Coal Roadmap 10
11 SA COAL ROADMAP SCENARIOS High global response to climate change Lags Behind Low Carbon World World pushes ahead with emissions mitigation, but South Africa continues to pursue coal as its primary energy source Strong action is taken globally and locally on emissions mitigation Low local response High local response to climate change More of the same At the forefront to climate change Limited action is taken on emissions mitigation globally and in South Africa South Africa joins the global leaders in emissions mitigation, while much of the remainder of the world takes limited action Low global response to climate change SA Coal Roadmap 11
12 SCENARIO MODELLING Example of modelling outputs: clear trade-offs between scenarios LAGS BEHIND LOW CARBON WORLD MORE OF THE SAME AT THE FOREFRONT Widely divergent scenarios with alternative generation mix and investment profiles Extensive modeling of a large number of parameters Source: SACRM, 2013 SA Coal Roadmap 12 12
13 COMMON CONCLUSIONS Under all scenarios, SA cannot afford to shut down its coal power plants To meet the same electricity demand projections, the At The Forefront and Low Carbon World scenarios will require overall installed capacity by 2040 to be significantly higher (110, ,000MW net max capacity) than in more coal-intensive scenarios (~90,000MW net max capacity) This is due to lower capacity and availability factors of renewable energy technologies Under all scenarios, demand for coal in the 20-22MJ/kg quality range continues beyond 2020 and for 22-24MJ/kg coal up to at least 2038 Several coal-fired plants will be required well beyond 2040 Coal fired generation in SA will be required for several decades more under any scenario Source: SA Coal Roadmap, 2013 SA Coal Roadmap 13
14 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN The ambitious IRP2010 build plan suggests that coal will still contribute Revised iterations of this plan - under revised demand growth assumptions - cannot significantly reduce coal generation Further delays in the nuclear programme suggest that new coal-fired base load plant must be added to this mix Some new coal capacity is planned - Committed new builds Existing fleet (2010) Policy-adjusted IRP 15% 23% 6% 6% 9% 42% Subject to later revision Binding Import Coal Nuclear Hydro Gas - CCGT Peak - OCGT Renewables Share of total new GW Solar PV CSP Wind Energy share In 2010 In 2030 TWh TWh 90% 5% 5% 0% <0.1% 0% 65% 20% 5% 1% <0.1% 9% SA Coal Roadmap 14
15 NEW COAL PRODUCTION URGENTLY REQUIRED Eskom has significant demand to 2035 and at least 5 stations still in operation after 2040 New supplies of 60Mtpa (or more) needed in next 5 7 years Plans to strengthen infrastructure to unlock the large Waterberg coalfield must proceed Source: Eskom SA Coal Roadmap 15
16 CONTENTS Coal: global perspective Coal: the SA context Why coal? Conclusion SA Coal Roadmap 16
17 WHY COAL? (1) 1. Coal is essential for base load supply and as backup for intermittent technologies The intermittent nature of renewable energies requires base load stations coal remains the backstop source of base load supply in SA failing significant other base load supply, % Average load factors for various technologies and fuels Coal Gas Nuclear BiomassOnshore Offshore wind wind Hydro Solar PV Solar Thermal Mitigating the impacts of intermittent energy supply requires widely interconnected, significant adjoining electricity networks not available in the medium- to longer-term in Southern Africa - Northern & Western Europe depend on cross-border energy trades - Reducing nuclear has meant increasing coal plant capacity in Germany, despite being leaders in renewable energy Source: European Commission SA Coal Roadmap 17
18 WHY COAL? (2) 2. Coal remains the most cost-effective and widely available energy source for electricity generation Key challenges for SA are to address energy poverty and to provide affordable electricity to sustain growth and competitiveness Comparison of levelised cost of electricity generation across international studies (US$/MWh) IEA/NEA CBO EC EPRI House of Lords MIT Coal Gas Nuclear Biomass n/a n/a Hydro n/a n/a n/a n/a Wind n/a n/a Solar PV n/a n/a n/a n/a Coal is widely available in South Africa, technology is mature and coal-fired electricity can be competitively produced Coal will continue to be the largest source of electricity production worldwide until >2030 and beyond this in SA Source: IEA, 2010 IEA/NEA: International Energy Agency/Nuclear Energy Agency, CBO: Congressional Budget Office. EC: European Commission, EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute, MIT: Massachusetts Institute of Technology SA Coal Roadmap 18
19 WHY COAL? (3) 3. Clean coal technologies can contribute to significantly reducing carbon footprint Substantial CO 2 savings can be made by improving coal plant efficiencies: 1% improvement = 2-3% reduction in CO 2 46 Average coal-fired generation efficiencies Current state-of-the-art efficiency rate is 45% % OECD USA South Africa India China Upgrading older, smaller coal plants would reduce total global emissions by 5.5% - more than the intended effect of all measures included in Kyoto Protocol In Germany, new, efficient coal plants with ~5,300MW capacity will start generating electricity in 2013 (1,000MW to be decommissioned) Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) provides further opportunity for CO 2 reduction Source: IEA Clean Coal Centre, IEA, IWR renewable energy institute SA Coal Roadmap 19
20 WHY COAL? (4) 4. South current saleable coal production of ~250Mtpa is a key sector of our economy Coal is one of the top 2 components of the SA mining industry Top 3 commodities by total sales value ZAR billions Coal Platinum Gold Coal employed some 78,580 people & paid ZAR16.1 billion in wages in 2011 Comprised ~18% of all commodity exports by value: ZAR50.5 billion in foreign revenue The Coal Resources and Reserves Study of SA (CRRSA) not yet released suggests that SA still has >60Bt* of recoverable coal reserves Source: South African Chamber of Mines, Department of Mineral Resources * Note: Not per SAMREC Code SA Coal Roadmap 20
21 CONTENTS Coal: global perspective Coal: the SA context Why coal? Conclusion SA Coal Roadmap 21
22 CONCLUSION Regardless of how the future evolves, significant coal-fired electricity generation will be required in South Africa for several decades The question is how much (more) coal will be required Coal will be required in the electricity mix for the following reasons Unless planning for new nuclear and / or significant gas-fired base load power commences soon, the next baseload plants must be coal-fired Coal is abundant and can provide the most cost-competitive electricity to SA - using safe, known technology New coal plants will have a significantly reduced carbon footprint Coal is a key contributing sector to the economy - also providing significant export revenues Once the current shortage of generation capacity is overcome (Medupi and Kusile commissioned), maintaining electricity supply will depend on securing coal supplies Significant investment and regulatory alignment are required development of new mines both currently present major challenges to SA Coal Roadmap 22
23 THANK YOU SA Coal Roadmap 23
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