Hydropolitics: International Water Issues

Transcription

1 Hydropolitics: International Water Issues ITWRM Training Workshop Amman, Jordan 6 November, 2006 Dr. Anthony Turton AWIRU

2 Objective of this Presentation To enable the audience to understand that hydropolitics is an emerging field of study with relevance to their own areas To get a basic theoretical understanding of basic hydropolitics concepts To begin to use those concepts in their areas To begin to understand how hydropolitics can be a valuable tool in understanding institutional development in their area

3 Key Definitions (1a) What is hydropolitics? Hydropolitics is the authoritative allocation of values in society with respect to water (Turton, 2002:16). Values? What values are considered? Whose values count the most? Allocation? How is this done? What institutional arrangement is used? What is being allocated? Water or the ecosystem or both?

4 Key Definitions (1b) Authoritative? Who is the authority? How is this authority to be enforced? In a complex basin like the Nile, is there one supreme authority? Should there be one supreme authority or a cascade of authorities? If not what limitations should exist on that authority? It is the study of who gets what, when, where, why and how? It focuses on solutions.

5 Key Definitions (2a) What about the issue of scale? At what level is the study to be relevant? Local Provincial National River Basin Regional Hydropolitics is therefore embedded in issues of scale. Ask yourself what level of scale are you dealing with. Know that other levels of scale exist.

6 Key Definitions (2a) What are the core drivers? The Stakeholder Mapping exercise in your IP helps you to start to understand these. Accurately identifying the core drivers enables a viable solution to be developed. What are the key impacts? All management solutions have an impact. Where are they felt? These are often remote from the centre of decision-making. Who benefits and who pays? Key to benefit sharing as a solution.

7 Key Definitions (3a) What is a watershed? This is the geographic feature that defines the outer limit of a hydrological entity such as a river basin. What is a river basin? This is one unit of scale relevant to hydropolitics, but not the only unit of scale. It corresponds to IWRM with the river basin as the fundamental unit of analysis.

8 Key Definitions (3a) But is the river basin the only relevant unit of scale? No The Problemshed is the place where the fundamental problem confronting water resource managers is defined. It is the place from where the solutions are sourced.

9 Key Definitions (4) The Problemshed Water scarcity occurs at the river basin or sub-basin level There is no scarcity of water at a global level The Hydrological Cycle tells us this

10 Key Definitions (4a) VAPOUR TRANSPORT PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION + TRANSPIRATION SURFACE RUNOFF EVAPORATION PERCOLATION LAKE RIVER OCEANS LAND GROUNDWATER FLOW

11 Geophysics Respects no Political Boundaries

12 Key Definitions (5) When managing water scarcity what do we do? We build dams and hydraulic infrastructure to increase assurance of supply. We build inter-basin transfers to make more water available in a basin that is overallocated. We manage demand through a variety of methods.

13 Key Definitions (5a) We import Virtual Water. Roughly 1,000 tonnes of water is needed to grow one tonne of cereal (Allan, 2000) By importing 1 tonne of cereal we effectively import the benefit of 1,000 tonnes of water into our economy This is applicable to all commodities Raises the issue of comparative advantage so it is a strategic issue

14 Key Definitions (6) How does water security link up with national security? When water scarcity poses a finite limitation to the economic growth potential of a province, country or region, there is a tendency for water to be elevated to an issue of high politics. This is known as the process of securitization

15 Key Definitions (6) Water resource management gets taken away from the domain of the technocrat and starts to become the domain of the securocrat Secrecy becomes the order of the day Knowledge is seen to be power so information is not shared Asymmetry in power relations becomes translated into asymmetry of water resource development and access

16 Key Definitions (7a) Highly securitized river basins tend to have stunted institutional development Water becomes a political weapon or tool Most vivid example today is the Jordan River Basin Securitization occurs in different levels of intensity

17 Key Definitions (7b) The Nile Basin is securitized but less so than the Jordan Under conditions of securitization, everything (including water resource management) becomes subservient to national security interests This can be reversed: South Africa as an example

18 Key Definitions (8a) Desecuritization is a healthy tendency It fosters institutional development This institutionalizes the rules of the game and therefore reduces the conflict potential to manageable levels conflict potential to manageable levels It promotes the sharing of information

19 Key Definitions (8b) This generates learning and creates a movement away from conflict to a cooperative solution It allows innovative solutions to be explored by making the pie bigger for all Virtual Water trade is one such solution Interbasin Transfers is another

20 Some of the Inter-Basin Transfers sustaining the South African Economy

21 Key Definitions (8a) Desecuritization allows another very important thing to happen. Benefit-sharing is a strategic issue in which the pie is made bigger by linking specific issues into a basket of potential benefits This is a way of getting buy-in and therefore reducing conflict potential

22 Key Definitions (8b) Benefits consist of a range of elements Most authoritative study is the recent Swedish Foreign Ministry report by the Expert Group on Development Issues Phillips, D., Daoudy, M., Mc Caffrey, S., Öjendal, J. & Turton, A.R Transboundary Water Cooperation as a Tool for Conflict Prevention and Broader Benefit-Sharing. Stockholm: Ministry for Foreign Affairs Expert Group on Development Issues (EGDI). (Available from egdi.secretariat@foreign.ministry.se)

23 Key Definitions (9a) What is a hydropolitical complex? It is a sub-component of a Regional Security Complex. It occurs when water resource management as an issue is strategic enough to define the actions of the Government towards other riparian states.

24 Key Definitions (9a) It is a unit of analysis defined by the analyst and not the water resource manager. It is typically surrounded by a zone of indifference. The Southern African Hydropolitical Complex is one example (Turton). The Tigris and Euphrates Hydropolitical Security Complex was the first example ever described (Schulz, 1995)

25 Regional Security Complexes

26 Transboundary River Basins in Africa As a result of our colonial legacy Africa has 53 sovereign states Sharing 63 transboundary river basins Containing 93% of the total water Covering 61% of the surface area In which 77% of the human population live

27 Africa s Fundamental Development Constraint Africa has the lowest conversion of MAP to MAR in the world And that is our fundamental development constraint hydrological insecurity Or what the World Bank calls being hostage to hydrology

28 High Variability Reduces Hydrological Security Natural variability in streamflow reduces hydrological security Exacerbating our fundamental development constraint further Hydrological insecurity.

29 MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL D. R. C. TANZANIA ANGOLA ZAMBIA MOZABIQUE MALAWI = 860 mm isohyet = World average rainfall SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm Pete Ashton km NAMIBIA SOUTH AFRICA BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE LESOTHO SWAZILAND Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)

30 Perennial River Basins and Dispute Potential Disputes tend to occur along the transition between perennial and ephemeral river systems. They can have negative impacts that undermine investor confidence. River Basin Commissions mitigate conflict and therefore restore investor confidence. Think Investor Confidence as a strategic policy objective.

31 Africa s Hydrological Future Endemic water scarcity is closely associated with economic stagnation Which can result in political instability That makes Africa an unattractive destination for foreign direct investment So a strategic objective in all policy has to be the management of investor confidence.

32 So What are We Doing About It? It is all about economic development. And that is about regional integration. Which in turn is about political organization. Driven by fundamental geophysical factors such as local hydrologies, geographies, cultures and histories. How do we know this? The European Union grew from: Iron and Steel Agreement Coal dependence Energy (Euratom) SADC as an African example: Founding Treaty Protocol on Shared Watercourses Harmonized water policy despite different legal systems

33 What are we observing in the SADC Case? +ve Utility National Self-Help This is the trend if you get it right This is the difficult transition that needs regional political groupings to structure Time -ve International Cooperation This is about learning how to cooperate and getting the process and incentives right Benefit-sharing is a key strategic mindset to have when developing policy

34 Hydropolitical Complexes in Africa A hydropolitical complex exists where states share strategic water resources Southern African HPC with extensive reliance on IBT s by most developed States To the extent that inter-state behaviour is influenced in a discernable way Either as a driver of potential conflict Or as a driver of cooperation and regional integration. It is a theoretical construct that exists above the level of the river basin but beneath a regional political or economic grouping.

35 Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Mainland SADC is the ordering structure Most well defined HPC in Africa for a variety of reasons Southern African HPC High level of harmonization of water policy Four most economically developed states have severe water scarcity limitations to future economic development potential... High reliance on IBT s already with trend to greater reliance in the future...

36 Lake Chad Dams and hydraulic infrastructure in the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Kunene Cuvelai Angola Congo Congo (DRC) Zambezi Zambia Zimbabwe Nile Tanzania Rovuma Mozambique Malawi South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built (WCD 2000) Namibi a P Ashton Okavango/ Makgadikgadi South Africa Botswana Orange Limpopo Lesotho Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Swaziland 0 Pungué Buzi Save-Runde N 25 0 Kilometres 50 0

37 Lake Chad Nile Water transfers in the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex Congo Congo (DRC) Tanzania Angola Rovuma Kunene Zambia Mozambique Zambezi Cuvelai Zimbabwe Malawi Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme Namibi a Okavango/ Makgadikgadi South Africa Botswana Orange Limpopo Incomati Umbeluzi Maputo Swaziland Pungué Buzi Save-Runde N Pete Ashton Lesotho Kilometres 50 0

38 Nile Basin Hydropolitical Complex Nile Basin HPC Nile Basin Initiative is the ordering structure 1929 and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the legal foundation This is at odds with contemporary customary international water law The Nyerere Doctrine is a key legal and political challenge to the perceived inequity of the 1959 Agreement The right to transfer water out of the channel is a fundamental driver of potential dispute.

39 West African Hydropolitical Complex West African HPC ECOWAS is a potential ordering structure French law is a potential ordering system Largest number of transboundary basins Key basins are Niger, Volta and Senegal... Lake Chad Basin is a driver of regional instability and needs urgent attention... Hydropower is a major stakeholder...

40 North African Hydropolitical Complex Most isolated and least coherently formed of all African HPC s Hydrologically linked with the Mediterranean region North African HPC Politically linked to Middle East but also with linkages to Africa Groundwater is a major strategic component... Very little research on this structure so it is largely unpredictable.

41 So When Thinking About Policy Start off by understanding MENA s fundamental development constraint as being a very low conversion of MAP to MAR. Which is exacerbated by high levels of temporal variability. And spatial maldistribution of water. Combined these are what the World Bank calls being hostage to hydrology. Stated differently a major development constraint is hydrological insecurity.

42 So When Thinking About Policy Think first about the economies that they will sustain. Gauteng produces 10% of the economic output of Africa and is 100% reliant on IBT s. These bring growth, prosperity and political stability to the continent. This attracts investor confidence which in turn stimulates growth. Combined this creates WE²A³LTH². So think WE²A³LTH² and make this your strategic objective in MENA s high-level policy.

43 WE²A³LTH² is what it is all about W = water security as a foundation for all else. E² = energy and education. A³ = access to justice, food security and finance. L = land tenure as driver of investor confidence. T = technology that is appropriate to Africa. H² = health, both human and ecosystem. And consider this be the strategic foundation of all future policy for MENA.

44 Never forget the strategic Water Energy Nexus It takes water to generate energy It takes energy to move water But water also stores energy to manage peak demands

45 The Water Energy Nexus Namibia Windhoek Botswana Zimbabwe Bulawayo Limpopo River Basin Mozambique Southern Africa already makes major use of IBT s Gaborone Orange River Basin Pretoria Johannesburg Lesotho Maputo Swaziland Usuthu Vaal IBT Thukela Vaal IBT Durban Capital cities and centres of growth are situated on watersheds Lesotho Highlands Water Project Atlantic Ocean East London Indian Ocean Cape Town South Africa Port Elizabeth Orange - Fish Sundays IBT

46 IBT s, if correctly planned and managed, mean hydrological security as a foundation for economic growth and political stability Think WE²A³LTH² AWIRU

47 Today the Cold War guns stand silent in Africa. Having fallen prey to the forces of erosion and changes in the tide of international politics As Southern Africa engages in post-conflict reconstruction The first regional protocol signed when South Africa joined SADC was the Protocol on Shared Watercourse Systems. Restoring investor confidence and growing economies. A R Turton, 1999

48 Thank You And Remember to Think WE²A³LTH² AWIRU