The Nile Basin DSS. Grenzübergreifendes Managementsystem für Wasserressourcen im Einzugsgebiet des Nils

Transcription

1 The Nile Basin DSS Grenzübergreifendes Managementsystem für Wasserressourcen im Einzugsgebiet des Nils A transboundary DSS for water resources management in the Nile River Basin DHI Group Presentation Monday, 22 June

2 DHI in brief 50 years of experience in Software development, Consulting and Capacity development We are independent highly qualified staff We are global DHI

3 We are dedicated and committed to Water sufficiency Food security Sustainable cities Efficient infrastructure Climate adaptation Environmental protection DHI

4 Whatever your need in water environments We can help you Save water Improve its quality Share it fairly Quantify its impact Protect from its effects Manage its flow DHI

5 Whatever your need in water environments We can help you Save water Improve its quality Share it fairly Quantify its impact Protect from its effects Manage its flow DHI

6 The Nile Basin World s Longest km Area: 3.2 million sq.km shared by 10 countries Population in basin > 200 mill. Water scarce area Rich natural and environmental assets 6

7 The Nile Basin at a glance Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y Atbara (at Mouth); 11.1 BCM/y White Nile (@ mogren); 11.1 BCM/y 4 Blue Nile (@ Khartoum); 48.3 BCM/y 9 Sudd outflow; 16.5 BCM/y 10 Sobat(@ Hillet Dolieb); 13.5 BCM/y 15 Bahr el -Jebel (@ Mongala); 36 BCM/y Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y 20 Kagera (@ fery); 6.3 BCM/y

8 The Nile Basin at a glance Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y 2 Atbara (at Mouth); 11.1 BCM/y 3 19 White Nile (@ mogren); 11.1 BCM/y 4 Blue Nile (@ Khartoum); 48.3 BCM/y 9 Sudd outflow; 16.5 BCM/y 10 Sobat(@ Hillet Dolieb); 13.5 BCM/y 15 Bahr el -Jebel (@ Mongala); 36 BCM/y Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y 20 Kagera (@ fery); 6.3 BCM/y

9 The Nile Basin at a glance 1 2 Nile (at Dongola); 80 BCM/y The Blue Nile Atbara (at Mouth); 11.1 BCM/y Lake Victoria basin The 3 Sudd Wetlands White Nile (@ mogren); 11.1 BCM/y Unique The Nile ~ large Delta, 60 per transboundary tropical Egypt cent of annual lake flow wetland (RAMSAR) 4 ~50% Nile Blue at of fully Nile Aswan, incoming regulated 2 (@ nd largest Khartoum); Egypt flow (Aswan lost freshwater to 48.3 ET High BCM/y lake Dam source Close 9 Very of to water zero and seasonal rainfall for largest domestic, in Africa livestock, and Well wildlife Sudd outflow; Major 16.5 source BCM/y of water for 10 Limited developed use (and water water fishery) infrastructure resources Major infrastructure interest Urban to conserve use, irrigation, water lost Sobat(@ Hillet Dolieb); 13.5 BCM/y by evaporation Main Very challenges: fishery, large (Jonglei HPP navigation decline Canal) potential in per 15 capita Bahr Opportunities el water -Jebel Key availability, challenges: (@ Mongala); for declining regional lake 36 BCM/y level 19 water quality, sea level rise, soil cooperation decline, water quality salinization Lake Victoria (@ outflow); 28.6 BCM/y Potential 20 impact of upstream developments Kagera (@ fery); on 6.3 water BCM/y availability?

10 The situation in short Downstream countries that rely almost completely on the Nile water Upstream countries with a desire and potential to develop water infrastructure Environmental issues and important ecosystems (e.g. the Sudd, Lk. Vic) Water allocation agreements that inhibit upstream development projects DHI Group Monday, June 22,

11 Background Key Treaties and Events Various Bi-lateral Agreements Sudan/Egypt and upstream riparians (no downstream Impacts unless agreed with Sudan/Egypt) High Aswan Dam (1955) Capacity 111 BCM. Nile Basin Treaty (1959): 55.5 BCM/yr for Egypt 18.5 BCM/yr for Sudan. Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Established (1999) Under the NILE COM (Ministers of Water Affairs) promote cooperation and co-ordination in the Basin

12 The Nile Basin - Countries BUR EGY SUD - 3 year project - 10 countries - 8 priority concerns RWA DRC NBI SSUD ETH TAN KEN UGA DHI Group Monday, June 22,

13 Nile Basin DSS Water Resources issues

14 Decision Support System: Requirements Nile Basin perspective Provide a generic framework Have a flexible architecture whereby different approaches for modeling can be employed Support modeling, scenario building and evaluation Support multi-objective optimization and tradeoff analysis facility Provide user extendable toolset for addressing specific issues; case of environmental, socio-economic objectives Provide transparent and simple facility for stakeholder dialogue in evaluation of scenarios Support collaboration and learning among riparian professionals Process as important as the final product 14

15 Nile Basin Water Resources Management Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda Cost benefit System optimization Multi criteria analysis Time series GIS Scenarios Solution The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates climatological, hydrological and environmental data with sophisticated water simulation models, together with sector economic production models, cost benefit and multicriteria analysis tools.

16 Nile Basin Water Resources Management Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda Solution Cost benefit System optimization The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates data: Climatological Hydrological Environmental Multi criteria analysis Time series GIS with the following: sophisticated water simulation models sector economic production models cost benefit analysis multicriteria analysis tools Scenarios

17 Building a Decision Support System Implementation and testing Scoping and solution design Maintenance and Support NB DSS DHI Group Monday, 22 June

18 How it was done Inception High level software requirements High level software architecture Project Implementation Plan Release 1 Requirement and design workshop Detailed requirements Detailed software design Refined implementation plan Release 2 Requirement and Design Document Software Release Release 3 Training Acceptance Test Acceptance DHI Group Monday, June 22,

19 DSS components Data/information management system Time Series analysis toolkit Basic GIS functionality Integrated database Ensemble generator (for probabilistic analysis) Modeling System Water balance and allocation model Rainfall-runoff modeling tools Hydrodynamic modeling Soil erosion process model Evapotranspiration modeling Decision making/analysis tools Scenario management including indicator calculation Multi-objective optimization Economic analysis tools Multi-criteria analysis tool 19

20 Implementation A Typical RealTime Solution Customised UI RT data sources RT data sources RT data sources DIMS Database RealTime UI Web publishing Tasks DIMS Configuration Create jobs Prepare data Run models Extract results Dashboard Manager Config Roles MC Solution Designer Client business processes Use cases Requirement documentation User interface design MC Configurator: System knowledge Scriptin MC Solution Developer Develop custom made components Develop Custom made UI DHI Group Monday, 22 June

21 NB DSS Technology Framework NB DSS RT data sources Time series Spreadsheets RT data sources GIS Scenarios MCA/CBA Dashboard (web publishing) RT data sources RT data sources RT data sources Optimisation Ensembles Work spaces Meta data Scripting Indicators RT data sources RT data sources Data base

22 The Nile Basin Decision Support System in brief The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a:. comprehensive analytical framework that integrates: - Real time data - Information management system (database, GIS, data processing tools,..) - Water Resources Modeling system - Analytic tools (optimization, benefit-cost analysis, multi-criteria analysis,...) In a user friendly graphical user interface (GUI) 22

23 Nile Basin baseline model (from NB DSS) 23

24 Scenario management tool Tool to support defining, simulating, analyzing and evaluating scenarios Interactive (graphical) scenario definition/editing Simple visualization of scenarios Scenario simulation Scenario Comparison 24

25 NB DSS a lot more than hydrology Hydrology/Hydraulics Indicators of What matters Response functions; other data DSS Toolset 25

26 Decision making tools - Economic analysis of scenarios (CBA) - Tradeoff analysis 26 - Multi-Criteria

27 Example of key issues being explored using NB DSS Understanding how the water resources system of the Nile Basin operates Climate Change Impacts Assessing likely future scenarios Downstream impacts of upstream developments Finding mutually beneficial development/management paths Intelligent operation schemes for new dams upstream to minimize impacts downstream? How much water can be conserved from the wetlands? What are the trade-offs (sectoral, country-wise, upstream-downstream) if hydropower dams are developed in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia? 27

28 The developper s view: DHI Preparation NBI secured buy-in by key stakeholders before the project starts Know what they want and have made that clear in solid TOR/Project documents Knowledge a strong group of competent and dedicated people to manage the project to interact and challenge the consultant That there is a real need and a clear vision Responsibility Take ownership and responsibility (through involvement of all key stakeholders) Political backup Complex in the Nile Basin but DHI felt a genuine interest and back-up from water authorities and some concern from political level Sustainability Capacity (organisational and institutional) Ability to sustain and further develop capacity Money, funded through governments rather than donors DHI Group Monday, June 22,

29 DHI Photo credits: DHI / istock / Nestlé Dr. Elimar Precht epr@dhigroup.com