DAVE METZ & LORI WEIGEL

Transcription

1 Key Findings from Qualitative Research and a Statewide Voter Survey March 2016 DAVE METZ & LORI WEIGEL /

2 Research Methodology 801 telephone interviews with registered New York voters likely to participate in the November 2016 election Conducted February 27 March 2, 2016 via landline and cell phones Margin of sampling error +/-3.5% at the 95% confidence interval Additional findings from qualitative online interviews held January 26 28, 2016 Due to rounding, some percentages do not add up to 100% Bipartisan research team of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) 1

3 FM3 and POS have partnered to complete energy and environmental research in 44 states 2

4 Introducing REV Let me tell you more about the Reforming the Energy Vision program. New York State is proposing to modernize the electrical grid to reduce costs, increase reliability and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, New York State could require electric utilities to offer consumers options that achieve these objectives like generating more electricity from clean and renewable sources, and providing new technologies to allow consumers to better understand and manage their use of electricity. Q10. Let me tell you more about the Reforming the Energy Vision program. Having heard this, does the Reforming the Energy Vision program sound like something you would support or oppose? 3

5 REV has strong support, from four in five New York voters Does the Reforming the Energy Vision program sound like something you would support or oppose? Strongly support Somewhat support 37% 52% Support 89% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 4% 4% Oppose Don't know/na/refused 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q10. 4

6 This support is robust even in the face of negative messaging Initial Opinion After Negatives Strongly support Somewhat support 37% 52% Support 89% 34% 47% Support 82% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 4% 4% Oppose 6% Oppose 14% Don't know/na/ Refused 3% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q12. Split Sample 5

7 A majority of New Yorkers rates global warming as a serious problem The cost of health care The economy and unemployment Crime and drugs Global warming Climate change Not using enough clean, renewable energy sources New York not doing enough to meet its potential for developing clean energy The cost of electricity Too much dependence on fossil fuel Extreme weather Air pollution and smog Ext. Ser. Very Ser. Smwt. Ser. Not Ser./DK/NA 26% 26% 23% 21% 15% 12% 13% 1 12% 13% 3 26% 27% 24% 21% 19% 20% 31% 30% 27% 44% 31% 37% 22% 25% 37% 34% 34% 31% 36% 2 19% 23% 25% 26% 6% 15% 23% 26% 29% 31% 37% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ext./Very Ser. Prob. 75% 69% 57% 53% 4 41% 39% % 33% Q1. I m going to read you a list of issues, and I d like you to tell me how serious a problem you think each one is in your community. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a serious problem. Split Sample 6

8 New York voters strongly support using more wind and solar power Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt. Opp. Stng. Opp. DK/NA Supp. Opp. Solar 74% 20% 94% 5% Wind 64% 25% 5% 89% 9% Hydropower 5 30% 6% 8 6% Natural gas 40% 37% 12% 77% 20% Nuclear 14% 22% 24% 36% 5% 36% 60% Coal 21% 21% 47% 29% 6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q3. Here is a list of specific sources of energy. Please tell me whether you would support or oppose increasing the use of that source of energy to meet New York State s future needs. 7

9 More than three in five strongly support rooftop solar, smart grid and CCA concepts Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt./Strng. Opp. DK/NA Supp. Creating a smart electricity grid 76% 19% 95% Providing incentives to encourage more development of rooftop solar 63% 27% 91% Community Choice Aggregation 61% 30% 7% 91% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q11 a, b & f. I am going to read you a list of specific strategies that might be pursued as part of the Reforming the Energy Vision Program. Please tell me whether it sounds like something you would support or oppose. 8

10 A majority is willing to act to reduce demand on the system I am going to read you a series of ways that New Yorkers may have the opportunity to change the way they use electricity to achieve the goals I have been describing. Please tell me if you would be very willing, somewhat willing, not too willing, or not at all willing to undertake that action. If you already do that action, please tell me that, too. Already Doing Very Willing Smwt. Willing Not Too Willing Not At All Willing DK/NA Reduce your electricity use during times of the day when there is great demand on the system Replace your appliances with energyefficient models Make energy-efficiency improvements to your home itself, such as installing new windows or insulation Use technology such as a smart thermostat to monitor and adjust your energy use Reduce your electricity use during times when it is more expensive Opt in to a program through your electric company which provides electricity from clean, renewable sources 21% 26% 20% 43% 40% 41% 35% 36% 40% 25% 26% 35% 21% 23% 23% 32% 36% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Will. Will./ Already Doing 69% 90% 46% 89% 49% 89% 63% 89% % Q14. 9

11 More than seven in ten acknowledge that they could do at least a little more to reduce their energy use Which of the following statements best describes the way you use electricity: I am already doing everything I possibly can to reduce my electricity use I try hard to reduce my electricity use, but could probably do a little more I try not to waste electricity, but I do not focus very much on the amount of electricity I use Q8. 10

12 New York voters strongly endorse the principles of having more choice and control over their energy use Strng. Agr. Smwt. Agr. DK/NA Smwt. Disagr. Strng. Disagr. Agr. *I would like to have more control over my choice of energy services 43% 41% 10% Disagr. 84% 14% *I would like to have more options for energy services 46% 31% 11% 77% 19% In my day-to-day life, I think a great deal about how my actions and choices affect climate change 29% 35% 17% 16% 64% 34% Other than the total cost, I don t pay much attention to my electricity bill 2 25% 17% 27% 54% 44% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q9. I am going to read you a few statements. Please tell me whether you generally agree or disagree. *Spit Sample 11

13 Voters support use of technology that makes it easier for them to adjust their energy use Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt./Strng. Opp. DK/NA Supp. Demand response 59% 29% 9% 8 Smart meters 57% 30% 10% 87% Smart thermostats 41% 33% 22% 75% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q11 c, d & e. I am going to read you a list of specific strategies that might be pursued as part of the Reforming the Energy Vision Program. Please tell me whether it sounds like something you would support or oppose. 12

14 People are willing to change behavior even if it costs them money Suppose you knew that implementing these programs would lead to a small increase in your utility bills in the short term as the program was implemented (HALF SAMPLE: but over the long-term, would lead to lower electricity bills). In that case, would you support or oppose the Reforming the Energy Vision program? No Reference to Savings With Long-Term Savings Strongly support Somewhat support 30% 42% Support 72% 36% 44% Support 80% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 10% 15% Oppose 25% Oppose 17% Don't know/na/ Refused 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q12. Split Sample 13

15 A majority saw a cost increase of as much as $10 per month as acceptable Suppose you knew that by making these changes, in the long term, this program would reduce costs, increase reliability and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in New York. In the short term, implementing this program would cost the average household in your community. Would you find that cost acceptable or unacceptable? Comp. Accept. Smwt. Accept. DK/NA Smwt. Unaccept. Comp. Unaccept. Accept. Unaccept. $10 per month 30% 27% 14% 2 56% 42% $5 per month 49% 25% 7% 17% 74% 25% $2 per month 70% 17% 87% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q13. Would you find it completely ACCEPTABLE/UNACCEPTABLE, or just somewhat? 14

16 Majorities believe more than 25% of New York s electricity is renewable and want the state to use more than 70% If you had to guess, what percentage of New York State s electricity needs currently come from clean renewable sources like wind and solar power? Mean Score: 25.9% If it were up to you, what percentage of New York State s electricity needs would come from clean renewable sources like wind and solar power? Mean Score: 70.6% 0% - 20% 52% 21% - 49% 30% 50% - 70% 9% 24% 71% - 100% 4% 5 Don t know/na 6% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Q4 & Q5. Split Sample 15

17 In this context of these perceptions, support for the Clean Energy Standard is nearly universal Currently, New York gets 19% of its electricity from clean and renewable sources. In November, the Governor announced a Clean Energy Standard: the goal is for 50% of all electricity consumed in New York to come from clean energy sources by Does this goal sound like something you would support or oppose? Strongly support Somewhat support 22% 67% Support 90% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose 3% 4% Oppose 7% Don't know/na/refused 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Q6. 16

18 Top 3 Support Messages (FUTURE) The time has come for us to take hold of our energy future so that our children and grandchildren will live in a state that is less dependent on fossil fuels, and runs more on new clean, efficient, and affordable renewable energy. (CLIMATE) Adopting clean energy technologies will give everyday consumers the ability to help reduce carbon pollution that causes climate change. (CLIMATE PLUS COST) We have a unique opportunity where we can help protect clean air, clean water and the environment, while at the same time saving money over the long run. Q16. Here are a series of statements from people who support New York State s Reforming the Energy Vision plan. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing. 17

19 Among voters, a message about a leaving a generational legacy resonated most strongly Very Conv. Smwt. Conv. Future 49% 35% 84% Climate 42% 3 80% Climate Plus Cost 41% 42% 82% Reliability 37% 43% 80% Cost 33% 3 71% Tech 30% 50% 80% Control 27% 45% 71% Market-based 24% 49% 74% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q16. Here are a series of statements from people who support New York State s Reforming the Energy Vision plan. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing. 18

20 Clean energy, renewable energy, and energy efficiency are very positive terms Next I would like to read you some words and phrases people might use in describing different aspects of energy. Please tell me whether each term sounds positive or negative to you. I am not asking you to define or explain the term, just tell me whether the term has a positive or negative ring or feeling to it when you hear it. We will use a scale of one to seven, where one means VERY NEGATIVE and seven means VERY POSITIVE. Four on this scale means neither positive nor negative. 1 (Very Negative) (Neither) (Very Positive) DK/NA Energy efficiency 11% 12% 25% 47% Mean Score 6.0 Clean energy 10% 14% 21% 49% 5.9 Renewable energy 15% 9% 15% 51% 5.8 Locally-generated clean power 5% 19% 13% 16% 40% 5.5 Rooftop solar 22% 21% 15% 29% 5.2 Greenhouse gas reduction 5% 15% 16% 16% 32% 5% 5.1 Smart meters 5% 6% 2 14% 12% 17% 15% 4.7 Micro-grids 6% 41% 13% 25% 4.4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q2. Next I would like to read you some words and phrases people might use in describing different aspects of energy. Please tell me whether each term sounds positive or negative to you. I am not asking you to define or explain the term, just tell me whether the term has a positive or negative ring or feeling to it when you hear it. We will use a scale of one to seven, where one means VERY NEGATIVE and seven means VERY POSITIVE. Four on this scale means neither positive nor negative. Split Sample 19

21 Voters are most likely to trust friends and neighbors on these issues Trust A Great Deal Trust Smwt. Smwt. Susp. Very Susp. NHO DK/No Opin. Friends and neighbors 22% 47% 11% 6% 13% Trust Susp. 69% 17% Local small businesses 17% 49% 17% 6% 9% 66% 24% Clean energy businesses such as solar and wind providers 19% 45% 22% 7% 6% 64% 2 Environmental organizations 21% 37% 22% 12% 5% 59% 34% Electrical workers 17% 3 17% 6% 17% 55% 21% The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority 15% 36% 21% 12% 51% 29% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q18. Here is a list of people and organizations that could provide information about personal and community choices relating to energy. Please tell me if you would generally trust each person or organization s opinion, or if you would be suspicious of it. If you have never heard of the person or organization, or do not have an opinion, you can tell me that too. Split Sample 20

22 Conclusions The REV plan is strongly supported, as is the Clean Energy Standard. New Yorkers are willing to change their behaviors to reduce energy use. A majority of New Yorkers rates global warming as a very serious problem facing the state. Voters want more choices and more control over the way they use energy, and strongly support the adoption of technologies that will empower them. New Yorkers care about the cost of their electricity but are willing to invest in the REV vision and find cost increases of as much as $10 per month acceptable. The strongest message was a future for our children that is less dependent on fossil fuels and is cleaner, followed by we can have the best of both protecting the environment and saving money in the long term. 21

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24 Full Text of Support Messages Tested (FUTURE) The time has come for us to take hold of our energy future so that our children and grandchildren will live in a state that is less dependent on fossil fuels, and runs more on new clean, efficient, and affordable renewable energy. (CLIMATE) Adopting clean energy technologies will give everyday consumers the ability to help reduce carbon pollution that causes climate change. (CLIMATE PLUS COST) We have a unique opportunity where we can help protect clean air, clean water and the environment, while at the same time saving money over the long run. (RELIABILITY) Our state s electrical grid is more than 50 years old in some places. Making the change to a decentralized smart grid with many small sources of electricity will reduce risks of failure. (COST) More use of clean energy and better energy efficiency will reduce energy costs over the long-term, while continuing to rely on coal and fossil fuels will lead to uneven and sometimes higher costs. (TECH) Smart grids give us the ability to carefully and efficiently manage our electric use, using less electricity to power all our devices, from high-tech tablets to old-fashioned toasters. (CONTROL) With modern technologies, consumers can choose to use clean, locally produced energy sources, control the amount and cost of the energy they use, and no longer be subject to the utility companies price increases. (MARKET-BASED) This program will give companies who can offer efficiency and choice, including cleaner energy options, a fair chance to compete against the electric companies monopoly. Q16. Here are a series of statements from people who support New York State s Reforming the Energy Vision plan. Please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing. 23