CAS/WWRP/SSC7/ DOCX.X (10-November 2014) Report of WG SERA

Transcription

1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (CAS) 7 th Scientific Steering Committee Meeting of the World Weather Research Programme WMO HQ, Geneva, Switzerland (17-20 November 2014) CAS/WWRP/SSC7/ DOCX.X (10-November 2014) Report of WG SERA Context, mission and focus As indicated by the annual loss figures below (MunichRe 2014), and despite incredible advances in prediction, societal knowledge, and technology, there remains considerable room for improving the outcomes of weather-related hazard events. Societal and economic research can aid in explaining this somewhat paradoxical observation and expose its intricacies. For example, few people ask how much steeper would the trend, or how much greater the absolute loss, have been in the absence of historical improvements to weather prediction and associated services. Alternatively, one could ask how much lower the losses could be with better communication and application of information in decision making. SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 1

2 The primary purpose of the WG SERA then is to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services. This is accomplished in part through the provision of advice to WWRP and WMO and through the development, review and promotion of societal and economic-related research focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and information. While the broad intent of the WWRP strategic plan remains valid through 2017, the clear direction to WG SERA and the 5 other WWRP WGs now in place is to have a strong presence within, and make contributions to, the 3 Thorpex legacy projects: Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project High Impact Weather (HIW) project Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Meetings The SERA WG has formally met five times since the third WWRP-JSC meeting in Monterey, CA: Inaugural meeting, October, 2009, at the ITCP, Trieste, Italy; Second meeting and joint session with the JWGFVR, September, 2010, at Météo France, Toulouse, France; Special side meeting involving a subset of members held in conjunction with the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme Scientific Conference, 30-October to 3- November, 2012, Beijing, China; Third meeting, July 2012, at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, Australia; and Fourth meeting and World Weather Open Science Conference, August 2014, Montréal, Canada. Reports documenting all of these meetings may be obtained through the SERA WG page on the WMO-WWRP web site ( Membership, Management, Communication, and Funding Current membership: Linda Anderson-Berry (Co-chair, Australia), Kwabena A. Anaman (Ghana), Jan Eichner (Munich Reinsurance Company AG), Ben Jong-Dao Jou (Taiwan, China), Paul Kovacs (Canada), Jeffrey Lazo (USA), Nanette Lomarda (WG SERA Secretariat), Brian Mills (Past Chair, Canada), Adriaan Perrels (Finland),Eugene Poolman (South Africa), Sally Potter (alternate for David Johnston, New Zealand), Joanne Robbins (United Kingdom), Jane Rovins (Co-chair, USA). The recent addition of the following new members enable the WG to broaden its expertise in economics and disaster risk management, add needed representation from Asia, and strengthen ties to the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme: Adriaan Perrels (Finnish Meteorological Institute), Jane Rovins (Disaster Reduction & Resilience Solutions, Ltd.), Jan Eichner (Munich Reinsurance Company AG), Ben Jong-Dao Jou (APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society) and Sally Potter (Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University). It would be desirable to have additional representation from Asia and South America, and expertise in anthropology, sociology and psychology as future membership evolves. SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 2

3 Brian Mills stepped down as chair of the WG in August but will remain a regular member for at least the next year. Two members have volunteered to become Co-chairs of the WG: Linda Anderson-Berry and Jane Rovins. The WWRP SSC is asked to recommend both the nominations and new co-chair model to WMO Executive Council, with the same justifications (i.e., breadth of topics and networks necessary to move the SERA agenda forward in and outside of WMO) and conditions that were identified for the JWGFVR when it moved to this management format. During the last WG meeting members noted the need to find better and more frequent means of communication annual fora (sometimes 1.5 years) cannot facilitate and sustain substantive involvement in WWRP projects and activities. Actions are being taken to enhance use of social media, webinars, and video conferencing, and to develop an interactive Internet presence to store documentation (resource clearing house) and to facilitate two-way exchanges, receive feedback and communicate outwards. Greater use of WMO member surveys and efforts to coordinate with other parts of WMO interested in user/client evaluation and social science applications (e.g., Public Weather Services) will be undertaken over the coming year. Clearly the need for developing and conducting social science and research applications has grown considerably over the past 10 years and, with the recent emphasis on impact forecasting, will undoubtedly continue to grow. However, aside from occasional or ad hoc national activities, this has not resulted in a commensurate and sustained increase in the number of funding opportunities and available resources. WMO and NMHSs are unlikely to offer more than seed resources and have expressed little desire to meet the data collection and processing challenges required to sustain a long-term R&D commitment to impact forecasting and evaluation. WG SERA members will be advancing the actions below to begin addressing this challenge: Clarify exactly what is required to support WWRP projects through WG SERA Utilize available resources from WMO and NMHSs to consolidate efforts, concentrating on engaging people to develop proposals for various foundations or granting agencies; Piggy-back on related continental and national research programs such as those oriented to climate change; and Coordinate and leverage within and outside WMO on projects, activities, and advice related to hazard and disaster risk reduction, for example through the Hyogo Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and national-level programs (e.g., Australian actions related to increasing resilience). Coordination and integration with IRDR A formal working arrangement between the WMO WWRP and the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) programme, which is supported by the International Council for Science (ICSU), International Social Science Council (ISSC), and United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN ISDR), was established to facilitate greater interaction between SERA (and other WWRP WGs) and IRDR to realize shared goals and objectives. A new executive director, Rudiger Klein, has taken over from Jane Rovins in the Beijing office. New national or regional committees have been established in Austria, Columbia, and Latin America and the Caribbean while new International Centers of Excellence, including ones for community resilience, understanding risk and safety, and vulnerability and resilience metrics have been added. A second international science conference was held in June and the IRDR working groups most closely aligned to WG SERA (Forensic investigations of disasters, Risk SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 3

4 interpretation and action, Disaster loss data), have been active holding seminars and workshops and publishing reports and case studies. IRDR is intent on expanding collaborations with WG SERA and WMO through the existing MOU, including sharing and deliberating progress IRDR has made on hazard classifications, socio-economic impacts, and communication issues related to warning and alert systems for a variety of hazards. As terms for many members of the IRDR Science Committee end in 2015, there will be new opportunities for expanding WG SERA representation within IRDR, subject to their terms of reference. IRDR encouraged the identification of WG SERA and WWRP programs and projects that could become affiliated with both organizations. Research and Application Activities World Weather Research Programme Open Science Conference (WWRP-OSC) WG SERA played an active role in chairing and executing the WWOSC User and Social science (UAS) Programme. The event was likely the largest international gathering of social and interdisciplinary scientists and application specialists focused on weather-related research ever convened with 5 high profile morning plenary addresses paired with 5 science presentations delivered to an estimated audience of each day. Ten panel and 17 parallel sessions involving 107 speakers plus an additional 31 posters addressed several important themes, including: Energy, transportation, agriculture and health; Bridging disciplinary and practitioner boundaries; Hazard and disaster risk reduction and management; Communication of weather and related risk information; and the Future of the weather enterprise. Sessions were well-attended, especially those focused on communication, risk perception, hazard/disaster risk, and specific projects (lunch sessions). Next steps include soliciting broad UAS participant input into a white paper (February 2015) intended to be published as a chapter in a WMO book and developing communication and collaboration mechanisms to maintain the network that grew through the conference. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. WG SERA members are involved in S2S through the Needs and Applications pillar of the project. Joanne Robbins is the official WG liaison who actively participates in project steering group meetings. The WG has also contributed a draft bibliography of relevant application literature which will be updated and reviewed to better inform and support 5 newly defined sub-projects: (1) Madden-Julian Oscillation, (2) Monsoons, (3) Africa, (4) Extremes, and (5) Verification. In addition to providing input on the initial sub-project descriptions, WG SERA members have been tasked with assessing their on-going activities with the aim of identifying potential key areas (research questions or application topics) for SERA contributions and projects. Low-hanging fruit might be picked, for example associated with the Recast climate change project and Nordwest program on multi-hazard preparations in Finland. Other areas where WG SERA will assist or at least provide some input to S2S include: Definitions of common but often misunderstood terms such as high impact weather event and/or forecast or value Approaches to better plan, develop, prioritize, and coordinate user and practitioner engagement (perhaps begin with other UN agencies and decision needs such as SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 4

5 programs for disease vector spraying; also key international organizations such as the International Emergency Management Association) Methods to conduct impact-based verification (and/or evaluation) in collaboration with WG JWGFVR Identify, increase project awareness, and solicit involvement of social scientists (i.e., through use of existing distribution lists and networks such as those developed through the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) Risk Interpretation and Action and Data Working Groups and WAS*IS) More generally related to the overall organization of the project, WG SERA strongly recommends to the S2S management and WWRP-SSC that a third co-chair be defined on social science for the project (i.e., liaison and sub-project roles are insufficient if the intent is to develop a strong societal component). Polar Prediction Project (PPP) WG SERA is presently represented on the PPP Steering Committee by Brian Mills. A SERA sub-committee is in the process of being formed largely drawing upon the existing network of social scientists involved in climate change related research in the Arctic. A meeting is being tentatively planned for March 2015, most likely in Ottawa or Waterloo, Canada, to take advantage of a limited window for resources. The objectives would be to inform a group of active polar social scientists about PPP, revisit/critique/improve elements of the science and implementation plans of both PPP and Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and solicit interest in forming both a small, formal SERA sub-committee, and a broader network that could contribute at the project level of activity. High Impact Weather (HIWeather) Project WG SERA members were involved in the June 2014 organizational workshop in Silver Spring, USA, facilitated a special HIWeather project session at the WWOSC, and have provided input to the latest HIWeather proposal. Members have been tasked to identify their interest in specific roles and contributions to the project; these will take shape over the next year. A potential activity to compare risks across HIWeather priority hazards, beginning with mortality/morbidity and damage, will be proposed and it is expected that the SERA RDP concept on Understanding the societal and economic dimensions of weather-related warning systems would be realized through, if not folded into, the HIWeather project. Coastal Flood Inundation Demonstration Project (CIFDP) This project, led from the CBS side of WMO, has requested additional support from WG SERA. Linda Anderson-Berry and a contracted social scientist (Khan Rahaman) have provided SERA input to the project which aims to integrate and apply existing models, tools and knowledge to improve coastal flood hazard forecasting in particularly vulnerable countries. The process involves bringing hydrologic and atmospheric expertise together with forecasters and key users. Originally piloted in Bangladesh and Dominican Republic cases, the project has broadened to include Fiji, Indonesia, Southern Africa, Philippines, and the Caribbean. Funding and capacity are not commensurate with the demand especially for the SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 5

6 SERA elements of engagement, communication and system evaluation. Linda and WG SERA members will be looking to tie this activity into efforts to support the HIWeather Project. Guidance Document on Assessing the Socio-economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services This initiative is designed to aid WMO members, especially developing countries, in understanding and making sound choices with respect to designing and contracting studies to assess the socio-economic costs and benefits of services as well as communicating and making use of the results of such research. The preparation of the guidance book has involved a dozen authors and editors, supported by WMO (Public Weather Services), the World Bank, and Climate Services Partnership through the USAID-funded Climate Change Resilient Development Project. The book Forecast Value: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services is expected to be published by WMO in WG SERA is represented by Jeff Lazo, Adriaan Perrels, and Brian Mills others have been recommended to be chapter reviewers but this decision is up to the management team. Following publication, the intent is to solicit country or service-level applications to use and test the effectiveness of the document. It is hoped that such applications will be executed as joint activities with WG SERA. Other activities Paul Kovacs represents WG SERA (and the larger WWRP and Commission of Atmospheric Science) on the Disaster Risk Reduction Focal Points of WMO Technical Commissions and Technical Programmes (DRR FP TC-TP) coordinating committee. This body was recently established to provide guidance for hazard monitoring and impact analysis. WG SERA members are also investigating opportunities to pursue socio-economic valuation work in Ghana (K. Anaman) and for the SWFDP program and South Africa Flood Forecasting System (E. Poolman). These activities as well as an on-going World Bank funded study, led by SERA member Jeff Lazo to estimate the costs and benefits of a program to improve the capacity of the hydrological and meteorological (hydro-met) services in Mozambique, will potentially contribute to various aspects of the HIWeather and S2S prediction projects. Meetings, workshops and conferences Fifth WWRP-SERA WG meeting (location and timing in 2015 tbd) Recent member/organization publications Andrey, J., D. Hambly, B. Mills and S. Afrin, Insights into driver adaptation to inclement weather in Canada, Journal of Transport Geography, 28: DOI /j.jtrangeo Becker, J.S., D. Paton, D.M. Johnston, and K.R. Ronan, Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness, Risk Analysis, 33(9): SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 6

7 Buadi, D.K., K.A. Anaman, and J.A. Kwarteng, Farmers' perceptions of the quality of extension services provided by non-governmental organisations in two municipalities in the Central Region of Ghana, Agricultural Systems, 120, DOI: /j.agsy Demuth, J.L., R.E. Morss, J.K. Lazo, and D.C. Hilderbrand Improving effectiveness of weather risk communication on the NWS Point-and-Click web page, Weather and Forecasting, 28(3): DOI: /WAF-D Doyle, E.E.H., J. McClure, D.M. Johnston, and D. Paton, Communicating likelihoods and probabilities in forecasts of volcanic eruptions, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 272:1-15. Doyle, E.E.H., J. McClure, D. Paton, and D.M. Johnston, Uncertainty and decision making: Volcanic crisis scenarios, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 10(PA): Hambly, D., J. Andrey, B. Mills and C. Fletcher, Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada, Climatic Change, 118(3-4): DOI /s IRDR Annual Report Integrated Research on Disaster Risk, International Programme Office, Beijing. Johnson, VA., K.R. Ronan, D.M. Johnston, and R. Peace, Implementing disaster preparedness education in New Zealand primary schools, Disaster Prevention and Management, 23(4): Kovacs, P. and D. Sandink Best practices for reducing the risk of future damage to homes from riverine and urban flooding: A report on recovery and rebuilding in southern Alberta. ICLR research paper series No. 53, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto. Kron, W. and A. Schuck (eds.), Topics-Geo: Natural catastrophes Analyses, assessments, positions. Munich Re. Mahama, A.M., K.A. Anaman, and I. Osei-Akoto Factors influencing householders' access to improved water in low-income urban areas of Accra, Ghana, Journal of Water and Health, 12(2): DOI: /wh Morrow, B.H., J.K. Lazo, J. Rhome, and J. Feyen. Forthcoming. Improving storm surge risk communication: Stakeholder perspectives, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Early on-line release. Morrow, B.H. and J.K. Lazo Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication, Journal of Emergency Management, 12(2): DOI: /jem SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 7

8 Nurmi, P., A. Perrels, and V. Nurmi, Expected impacts and value of improvements in weather forecasting ontheroad transport sector, Meteorological Applications, 20(2): DOI: /met Porthin, M., T. Rosqvist, A. Perrels, and R. Molarius, Multi-criteria decision analysis in adaptation decision-making: a flood case study in Finland, Regional Environmental Change, 13(6): DOI: /s Robbins, J.C., M.G. Petterson, K. Mylne, and J.O. Espi, Tumbi Landslide, Papua New Guinea: Rainfall induced? Landslides, 10(5): DOI: /s Rosqvist, T., R. Molarius, H. Virta, and A. Perrels, Event tree analysis for flood protection-an exploratory study in Finland, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 112:1-7. DOI: /j.ress Sander, J., J.F. Eichner, E. Faust, and M. Steuer, Rising variability in thunderstormrelated US losses as a reflection of changes in large-scale thunderstorm forcing, Weather, Climate and Society, 5(4): DOI: /WCAS-D Sinclair, H., E.E.H. Doyle, D.M. Johnston, and D. Paton, The use of emergency operations centres in local government emergency management, International Journal of Emergency Management, 9(3): Yu, Y.C., B.J.D. Jou, H.H. Hsu, C.T. Cheng, Y.M. Chen, and T.J. Lee, Typhoon Morakot meteorological analyses, Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, 37(5): DOI: / SSC-7 Status Report: WWRP SERA WG 8