World Climate Research Program-Update

Transcription

1 World Climate Research Program-Update Ghassem R. Asrar D/WCRP at the ICSC session

2 Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and planning adaptation to climate change by developing science required to improve (1) climate predictions and (2) our understanding of human influence on climate for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society (WCRP Strategic Framework ).

3 Projects & Activities WCRP Core Projects on climate and... Cryosphere Stratospheric Processes WCRP flexible response to recent thrusts & research needs: Cross-Cutting Activities Extremes Monsoons Sea Level Energy & Water Cycle Ocean WCRP expertise in modelling & observations/data assimilation Seasonal & Decadal Predict. Regional Modelling etc. (WCRP Strategic Framework )

4 Future Horizons : WCRP activities and core projects implement the Strategic Framework COPES (Coordinated Observation and Prediction of Earth System) Post-2013: to achieve a more effective interfacing with the users of climate informational products a new WCRP structure will be needed (JSC-29, Arcachon, France, April 2008)

5 ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review 2008 (1) Rationale: last review over a decade ago; ICSU s Strategic Plan called for reviews of all GEC programmes; WCRP and IGBP reviews conducted in parallel. Summary: The WCRP Review Panel recognizes the many important achievements of this international scientific research programme, and we conclude that WCRP can play a significant role in helping society meet the challenges of global climate change. But at present time, WCRP lacks the focus, planning and funding to meet these challenges.

6 ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review 2008 (2) Re-focus 2005 WCRP Strategic Framework by: Setting priorities (respond to IPCC needs) Strengthening links to key user groups Aligning science to societal needs i.e. climate adaptation and predictability Leading the Earth system modelling initiative

7 ICSU-WMO-IOC-IGFA Review 2008 (3) Re-focus 2005 WCRP Strategic Framework by: Building resource capacity Building scientific capacity Expanding strategic outreach activities Developing a framework for future joint research operation together with other GEC programmes

8 Research Areas of Common Interest (1) Seasonal prediction New experiments: Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) on untapped coupled predictability, climate change & seasonal prediction communities ENSEMBLES data protocol WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, Barcelona, June 2007

9 Research Areas of Common Interest (2) MAHASRI Monsoon WCRP Integrated Monsoon Study: Asian Monsoons Years for integration of monsoon activities with ongoing CLIVAR-GEWEX/ESSP-MAIRS activities GEWEX Hydrologic Applications Project (HAP) links to regional users; Hydrological Ensembles Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

10 Research Areas of Common Interest (3) Tropical Convection YOTC: a year of coordinated observing, modelling, and forecasting with a focus on organized tropical convection, its prediction, and predictability Scientific challenges: ENSO, monsoons active/break periods, tropical cyclones YOTC Science Plan (2008)

11 WCRP & WWRP Cooperation (1) Current and Future Themes: Aerosols and air quality Regional modelling Model development and verification Atmospheric chemistry and climate Tropical cyclones and climate Extreme weather and climate events Observations and information management, WIGOS and WIS (with other WMO Depts.)

12 WCRP & WWRP Cooperation (2) Seamless Prediction of Weather and Climate Brunet et al. (white paper) Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: The advancement of subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Shapiro et al. (white paper) The socioeconomic and environmental benefits of a weather, climate and Earth-System prediction initiative for the 21st century. World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction (Reading, UK, May 2008) Establish World Climate Research Facility The Climate Prediction Project

13 EC Research Task Team Mandate: Identify climate research activities Promote concept of an enhanced weather, climate, water and environmental ( seamless ) prediction WWRP/WCRP and other partners Draft report on challenges and opportunities online: (to be published: 4/09)

14 Summary We envision many opportunities to bridge the artificial gap between the weather and climate research. The global network of science and technical experts together with observations and models offer unique and exceptional capabilities. THORPEX, YOTC, Monsoon studies are excellent examples of how we can benefit from these resources. The limits to our cooperative efforts will only depend on our imaginations!