WCRP Update. Boram Lee, WCRP Joint Planning Staff

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1 WCRP Update Boram Lee, WCRP Joint Planning Staff

2 Mission & Objectives... to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society (WCRP Strategic Framework )

3 WCRP Structure & Modus Operandi

4 WCRP Structure & Modus Operandi A New Look: How to structure our approaches, methods and organizations? Focus on the scientific priorities consolidate on existing achievements and simplify the structure Identify a central theme, around which our science develop Highlight synergies with other international programs

5 Cross-analysis: uncertainties.vs. ongoing activities Lessons Learnt for Climate Change Research (2014, Switzerland) Ocean (particularly, deep ocean) heating and ocean circulation Increased WCRP sea level predictive Grand Challenge, skill on decadal prediction time scales challenges (within several GCs) Seamless coupled weather-climate Understanding natural variability and forced change on annual to decadal time scales WCRP GCs on climate extremes and regional climate Better and more systematic sources of and access to data Better descriptions of and incorporation of aerosols and other short-lived climate forcers (decadal time scales and on local to regional spatial scales) Direct input from climate prediction to decision support systems Interactive components of the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, including terrestrial and oceanic geochemical and ecological sources and sinks, into analyses and models

6 Actionable Climate Science: WCRP Grand Challenges Cross-Cutting, Integrating Core-projects re. Earth Components (Atmosphere, Ocean ) Coupled activities towards an Earth System approach (energy, chemistry, water ) Linking with other programmes (IGBP, WWRP, GCOS, GFCS )

7 Actionable Climate Science: Challenges & Opportunities

8 Proposed WCRP coastal megacities Initiatives Global map showing the location of urban agglomerations with 750,000-plus inhabitants projected for 2025 (derived from statistics in UN DESA Population Division, 2012).[IPCC AR5 WGII, Fig. 8-2]

9 Proposed WCRP coastal megacities Initiatives Importance 50% global population (70% by 2050) 70% global carbon emissions 90% of GDP huge built infrastructure extensive water & food footprints massive mitigation co-benefits funding & resources Global map showing the location of urban agglomerations with 750,000-plus inhabitants projected for 2025 (derived from statistics in UN DESA Population Division, 2012).[IPCC AR5 WGII, Fig. 8-2]

10 Proposed WCRP coastal megacities Initiatives Needs for Improved Climate Information Microclimate Massive economic implication for climate adaptation & disaster risk reduction Multi-dimensional, multi-sectoral requirements for climate information Global map showing the location of urban agglomerations with 750,000-plus inhabitants projected for 2025 (derived from statistics in UN DESA Population Division, 2012).[IPCC AR5 WGII, Fig. 8-2]

11 Planet Data Initiative

12 Planet Data Initiative Included in ERA-Interim (daily)

13 Planet Data Initiative M From other sources: ice core CO 2 & temperatures (paleo), carbon emissions (global), ocean carbon sink, heat index (land), growing season precipitation (land, paleo), etc. D D D D D M M M M M A A A A A A A A A Included in ERA-Interim (daily) Data available (global) from ESSD, Scientific Data, Geophys. Data Jnl. * US only

14 Planet Data Initiative Broad effort to gather and assimilate existing but so far narrowly-used data products from across the physical, chemical, biological and ecological communities M extreme technical challenges over time scales and variables From other Impact sources: and ice benefit core CO to 2 & entire temperatures community (paleo), of carbon emissions (global), ocean carbon climate sink, science heat index and (land), applications growing season precipitation (land, paleo), etc. D D D D D M M M M M A A A A A A A A A Included in ERA-Interim (daily) Data available (global) from ESSD, Scientific Data, Geophys. Data Jnl. * US only

15 Coast, Megacities, and Climate With observed climate change, trend Large urban agglomerations and temperature change (maps drawn from IPCC, 2013; urban agglomeration population and population growth data from UN DESA Population Division, 2012). [IPCC AR5 WGII, Fig. 8-3]

16 Coast, Megacities, and Climate With projected climate change for mid-21 st century, RCP8,5 Large urban agglomerations and temperature change (maps drawn from IPCC, 2013; urban agglomeration population and population growth data from UN DESA Population Division, 2012). [IPCC AR5 WGII, Fig. 8-3]

17 Coast, Megacities, and Climate Example: current & future climate risk in New York [IPCC AR5 WGII, Table. 8-6]

18 Coast, Megacities, and Climate Example: current & future climate risk in New York Adaptation policy setting & implementation requires: - Sound understanding on climate variability, change and implications - Interdisciplinary, long-term data collection and analysis systems; along with an inclusive, transparent process for stakeholder engagement to interpret the data - Reliable prediction of weather and climate prediction in various time scales, with acceptable credibility & uncertainties - Etc.

19 Coast, Megacities, and Climate Example: current & future climate risk in New York [IPCC AR5 WGII, Table. 8-6] GC-Extremes Heavy Precipitation / Draught Heatwave / Storm GC-Water Availability

20 Coast, Megacities, and Climate Emphasis Example: on developing current & future & providing climate risk in New York [IPCC AR5 WGII, Table. 8-6] science-based climate information New partnership (e.g. WWRP / HIW) Considering local/user relevance Leveraged by communication GC-Extremes Heavy Precipitation / Draught Heatwave / Storm GC-Water Availability

21 Coast, Megacities, and Climate Challenges, one of many: Multi-scale, Multi-components data collection, assimilation and modelling opportunistic data sources from different sectors high resolution weather coupled regional models storm surge models air quality simulations hydrologic models ecoscape models economic models transportation models

22 WCRP Joint Planning Staff David Carlson Director??? Senior Scientific Officer Boram Lee Senior Scientific Officer Michel Rixen Senior Scientific Officer Catherine Michaut WCRP Support Unit Anne Chautard Administrative Assistant Roberta Boscolo Communications Officer Pepi Potter Administrative Assistant Isabel Hall Administrative Assistant