The challenges on the way to a 2030

Transcription

1 The challenges on the way to a 2030 EU governance for renewables Prof. Dr. Mario Ragwitz Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research From COP21 to COP22: Renewables and Mediterranean Integration T u n i s, Seite 1

2 Motivation Strong role of renewables in Europe s future energy mix ephasised by the Energy Road Map (COM(2011) 885/2): Strong growth in renewables is the so-called 'no regrets' option. General motivations are security of supply, economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability The European Council adopted a RES target of 27% by 2030 based on 40% GHG savings and 27% energy efficiency i targetst The debate on detains of the 2030 governance is currently ongoing with a COM proposal of RED II expected by the end of 2016 The solid assessment of impacts needs quantitative modeling of energy system and macro-economic effects based on detailed techno-economic data Employ-RES II Study; DiaCore Study; Towards 2030 Study; Dii Study eu/ Seite 2

3 Ambition level of 2030 target on EU-28 level - net versus gross increase of total RES generation In ncrease of RE ES generatio on by decad e [TWh/a] ,800 Net and gross increase of renewable 1,600 generation at EU level by decade ( vs ) across all ,400 energy sectors 1, , Net increase Gross increase to to 2030 Source: Towards2030 project Seite 3

4 Ambition level of 2030 target on EU-28 level - net versus gross increase of RES-E generation on by decad de [TWh/a] Incr rease of RES S E generati Net and gross increase of renewable electricity generation at EU level by decade ( vs ) Net increase Gross increase 2010 to to 2030 Source: Towards2030 project Seite 4

5 2030 governance for RES: Deliver on the 2030 targets while ensuring MS flexibility 1. The European Council agreed in October 2014 on an EU binding RES target, but excluded national binding targets. 2. What are the requirements for the future RES governance? EU target should be fulfilled through Member States contributions guided by the need to deliver collectively the EU target All Member States t should contribute t need to define their fair share Member States should be aware that EU-wide binding target means financial commitment for all Member States Increased flexibility for Member States (compared to 2020 framework) Increased use of cooperation measures RES investors will need transparency and reliability to deliver the target need for transparent and reliable planning framework; enforcement of EU target Reliable national commitments also needed to coordinate investments in grids and generation assets Seite 5

6 Possible benchmark example: Applying the 2020-logic to 2030-target Seite 6 Source: Towards2030 project

7 General policy pathways currently possible w.r.t. rt cooperation with 3 rd countries EU COM Policy EU RE target and Status quo, national RE Pathway harmonized support targets, but policy schemes convergence Policy Pathways analyzed Pathway A Harmonized FIP Pathway B Harmonized Quota Scheme Pathway C National converged schemes Pathway C* National converged schemes,,joint EU import tenders Decarbonisation without RE targets (carbon market and a revised ETS) Seite 7 Source: Dii 2013

8 Next steps for EU-MENA integration of RES policy Transition towards a long term reliable framework: 1. Pooling of Art. 9 Projects to facilitate transition of pathway C to C* 2. Definition of comparable RE targets in MENA countries 3. a) Extension of EU Energy Community to MENA countries and application of Art. 6 virtual transfer possible but full market liberalization required b) Continuation of pathway C* to ease the coordination of build up of interconnectors, combining RES tenders with tenders for interconnectors 4. Introduction of fully harmonized premium system after full market integration including a common CO 2 market, energy subsidy phaseout and a reliable regulatory framework for grid investments have been accomplished. Seite 8

9 Next steps for EU-MENA integration of RES policy No regret options valid for all pathways: Introduction of on-discriminatory grid access and taxation regime Dfiiti Definition of national lmenarest targets t comparable to EU Creation of regional power and balancing markets Unbundling of generation-, transmission- and distribution activities Regime for full IPP participation (transparent and non-discriminatory) Stepwise implementation of cost-reflective electricity prices Introduction of metering and certification schemes for RES Convergence of financing conditions Additional elements for harmonized policy options: Existence EU-MENA power, balancing and carbon markets Common approach for burden sharing of RES support cost Seite 9

10 Let s make the EU-MENA the world leader in renewable energy! Contact: t Prof. Mario Ragwitz Mail: mario.ragwitz@isi.fraunhofer.de Seite 10

11 Financing costs increase with (i) general country risk (ii) policy design risk Weighted average cost of capital for wind reported by European investors in 2014 Reliable targets and policy are crucial for competitiveness of renewables Source: DiaCore project Seite 11