Hearing Organised by the European Parliament

Transcription

1 Hearing Energy Roadmap 2050 European Parliament 18 Sept Hearing Organised by the European Parliament Energy Roadmap 2050 Examining, analysing and understanding the scenarios with a focus on the elctricity system Based on the Power Sector Decarbonisation Metastudy, prepared by e & Öko-Institut on behalf of SEFEP Dr. Stefan Lechtenböhmer, e Director Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures

2 Comparison of Scenario Studies Focus on electrictiy system as crucial part of overall energy system Eurelectric (2009) / EREC (2010) Source: e & Öko-Institut % (2010) European Com. (2011) 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 2

3 Energy Roadmap Scenarios in Comparison Shares of Different Low Carbon Electricity Generation Options (EU vs. Range of Scenarios) % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% - highest - lowest CCS Nuclear Renewables 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% - highest - lowest CCS Nuclear Renewables 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 3

4 Demand Side Mitigating strong (reference) growth in electricity demand assumed as common strategy in all scenarios 70% Change in electricity demand compared to base year (2005/2007) in nontransport sectors 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Reference Commissioned by Reference Reference Source: e & Öko-Institut 2012 Energy Efficiency Diversified Supply Rev. Adv. Rev. Eurelectric Power Choices all policy scenarios 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 4

5 Demand Side Net growth of electricity demand due to large penetration of electric mobility 70% Change in intotal electricity electricity demand demand compared compared to base to base year year (2005/2007) in nontransport to change sectors by and contribution sector 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Reference Commissioned by Reference Reference Energy Efficiency Diversified Supply Rev. Adv. Rev. Eurelectric Power Choices all policy scenarios Transport Other sectors Total change 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 5 Source: e & Öko-Institut 2012

6 Supply Side RES-E share as main characteristic of power system 80-98% RES-E world Challenges of different worlds variability + flexib. needed 60-65% RES-E world 32-42% RES-E world add. nuclear + CCS needed no climate policy or high shares of nuclear and CCS needed Source: e & Öko-Institut Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 6

7 Underlying assumptions determine results PV capital cost assumptions scenarios and reality (system costs, real prices) Eurelectric EU GP Source: e & Öko-Institut 2012 Note: Capital costs assumptions for Eurelectric (2009) study is estimated from levelized generation costs as no capital cost assumptions are provided. 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 7

8 Conclusion The EU s Energy Roadmap 2050 Similar targets are pursued in other scenario studies from various stakeholders Results point at key areas where political action is required Decarbonising electricity is a core strategy Policy driven demand side efficiency gains are crucial in all decarbonisation scenarios (this should include also aspects of sufficiency) No room for unabated power generation from fossil fuels by 2050 Renewable energies are the backbone anyway Mostly variable sources (mainly wind, but also solar to a significant extent) Electricity system needs to adopt to high shares of variable sources Respective roles of CCS and Nuclear are highly uncertain Both have limited roles to play (max: 30% each) Low probability of high nuclear and high CCS 18 Sept Lechtenböhmer / ITRE Hearing Seite Slide 8

9 Hearing Energy Roadmap 2050 European Parliament 18 Sept Thank you for your attention! For details see:

10 Backup slides Seite Slide

11 Eurelectric (2009) / EREC (2010) (2010) European Com. (2011) Scenario philosophy and numbers Find a costeffective pathway (1) Show that deep CO 2 reductions are possible (2) Practical, independent & objective analysis (3) Explore different pathways of the energy system (5) Reliance on CCS technology Reliance on nuclear power Supply mix (largely) predetermined? No (but cost assumptions have an effect) Implicitly, as nuclear, CCS is excluded Yes, explicitly Partly, some RES-E targets considered Model used/ general approach PRIMES model (part. equilibrium, focussing on market interact.) Simulation model, normative approach Detailed power sector simulation model PRIMES model (part. equilibrium, focussing on market interact.) Seite Slide

12 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual (EU-27) Shares in net electricity generation by source (including imports) Eurelectric Power Choices 40% RES Diversified Supply 60% RES Delayed CCS Energy Efficiency Low Nuclear 80% RES High RES Rev. Adv. Rev. Commissioned by Renewables (non-import) Net imports and other fuels Fossil - CCS Fossil - conventional Nuclear Seite Slide

13 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual (EU-27) Shares in net electricity generation by source (including imports) Eurelectric Power Choices 40% RES Diversified Supply 60% RES Delayed CCS Energy Efficiency Low Nuclear 80% RES High RES Rev. Adv. Rev. Commissioned by Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Natural gas with CCS Solids with CCS Net imports (GP: RES) Natural gas w/o CCS Solids w/o CCS Nuclear Other fuels Seite Slide