Calculating the Cost of Energy for Offshore Wind under Uncertainty: An Open Source Methodology and Case Studies

Transcription

1 Calculating the Cost of Energy for Offshore Wind under Uncertainty: An Open Source Methodology and Case Studies Deniz Ozkan Michael R. Duffey Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Science The George Washington University International Workshop on Wind Energy Development - Cairo, Egypt March 22-24, 2010

2 Offshore Wind Farm Prinses Amaliawindpark Complex June System 2008 High COE Wind turbines: 60 Vestas V80 / 2 MW Capacity: 120 MW Water depth: Inadequate, 19 Traditional - 24 meters LCC Distance from shore: 23 kilometers Surface area: 14 km² Hub height: 59 meters Relatively New Technology Rotor diameter: 80 meters Annual power production: 435 GWh Various, Interrelated CO2-emissions Uncertain avoidance: Parameters tons/year Enough to power: households Prinses Amaliawindpark

3 Physical Uncertainty Technical Environmental Economical Social Political

4 Offshore Wind Plants Installed Capacity (MW) , ,134 + Under Construction (MW) , , ,502

5 Offshore Wind Energy Models, Projects, Tools NASA MOD Sunderland Model University of Sunderland OPTI-OWECS TUDelft WINDPACT NREL, DOE OWECOP ECN DOWEC NEG Micon, LM Glasfiber, ACZ, ECN OWFLO UMASS, GE, DOE RETSCREEN Energy Diversification Research Laboratory, Canada Others

6 OWEC Offshore Wind Energy Converter

7 OFfshore Wind Integrated Cost OFWIC Integrated Uncertainty Cost of Electricity Environment Financing Scheduling Power Network Risk Analysis Optimization

8 OFWIC Flow Chart Section I

9 OFWIC Flow Chart Section II

10 OFWIC Flow Chart Section III

11 Wind Module

12 Wave Module

13 Turbine Module

14 Energy Output Annual Energy Output Turbine Power Curve Theoretical Wind Power Wind Speed

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16 Environment Module REC REC escalation factor Avoided Emissions Replaced generation type Biomass, Coal, Diesel, Geothermal, Hydro, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Oil CO 2 emission ton/mwh CH 4 emission ton/mwh N 2 O emission ton/mwh Fuel conversion efficiency Transmission and distribution losses GHG emission factor tco 2 /MWh Cost of avoided emissions

17 Financing Module Back Leveraged Cash & PTC Leveraged Cash Leveraged Corporate Institutional Investor Flip Pay-As-You-Go Strategic Investor Flip Financing structures are adopted from report Wind Project Financing Structures: A Review & Comparative Analysis

18 Scheduling Module Allocation of Funds during Construction (AFUDC) Interest During Construction (IDC) Task Durations Project Scheduling Gantt Chart

19 Power Network Module OFWIC Power Market Model Bilateral Contracts Generators Generators B I D S Auction ISO Distributor Distributor U S E R S U S E R S Generators Bilateral Contracts Historical Time Series LMP, Load, WS Forecasted Time Series LMP, Load, WS Forecast Errors LMP, Load, WS

20 Power Network Module OFWIC Load Forecasting ANN Architecture Season, Month, Day, Hour, Day Ahead Load Real Time Load, Dry Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Dry Bulb Temp. Forecast, Dew Point Temp. Forecast Hidden Layer Load Forecast OFWIC Electricity Price Forecasting ANN Architecture Season, Month, Day, Hour, Day Ahead Load Real Time Load, Dry Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Dry Bulb Temp. Forecast, Dew Point Temp. Forecast Day Ahead LMP, PCC, MLC Real Time LMP, PCC, MLC Day Ahead Load Forecast Hidden Layer Price Forecast

21 Simulation - Optimization Parametric optimization Complex, large stochastic system Formulation of objective function is difficult Non-linear probabilistic elements Simulation-based evaluation of the objective function Genetic algorithms

22 Cape Cod Cape Wind Project Proposed in 2001 Wind turbines: Installed Capacity: Water depth: Distance from shore: Surface area: Hub height: Rotor diameter: 130 GE / 3.6 MW 468 MW ~ 10 meters ~ 13 kilometers 83 km² 75 meters 104 meters Annual power production: 1491 GWh GHG-emissions avoidance: tons/year Enough to power: households

23 Cape Cod Results

24 Cape Cod Cost Breakdown

25 Cape Cod Cost of Electricity for Base Case w/o PTC and REC ($/kwh)

26 Cape Cod Cost of Electricity for All Cases including Base, Financing and Scheduling ($/kwh)

27 Cape Cod Average COE for Financing, REC, Scheduling and Network ($/kwh) Bidding Strategy Marginal Cost Actual Sale Accepted Bid Actual Generation Min 466,097, ,656,488 Max 2,272,903,487 2,213,013,718 Annual Electricity Sale Amount (kwh) Mean 1,209,993,983 1,373,540,100 Min 1.23% 1.05% Max 31.43% 43.87% Penalty / Sale Mean 7.49% 8.66% Financing Structure vs. Average COE ($/kwh) Back Leveraged Cash & PTC Leveraged Cash Leveraged Corporate Institutional Investor Pay-As-You-Go Strategic Investor

28 Cape Cod Sensitivity Analysis

29 Cape Cod Optimum Design Optimum Design Rotor Diameter (m) 131 Hub Height (m) 75 Rated Power (MW) 4.95 Design Wind Sp. (m/s) 14 Number of Turbines 72 Spacing Ratio (D) 8 Foundation Type Gravity Shore Conn. AC-DC AC COE ($/kwh) Mean $0.07 TLCC ($) Mean ($687,504,391) AEP (kwh) Mean 1,176,463,193 GHG Red. (tons/yr) Mean 638,153

30 Egypt- Wind Atlas (50 m)

31 Questions

32 Back Leveraged

33 Cash & PTC Leveraged

34 Cash Leveraged

35 Corporate

36 Institutional Investor Flip

37 Pay-As-You-Go

38 Strategic Investor Flip