Critical Global Environmental Issues. Dr. Frederic K. Pfaender Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering UNC School of Public Health

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1 Critical Global Environmental Issues Dr. Frederic K. Pfaender Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering UNC School of Public Health

2 Environmental Services Food Shelter- or materials to make shelters Drinking water Places to live Raw materials of all kinds Climate and weather- direct and indirect effects

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4 A Little Basic Ecology All environments are related to all others Changes in one environment will often result in unanticipated changes in others We are getting better at predicting relationships Distribution of organisms (and their health) dictated largely by their adapting to particular environmental characteristics When you change environment you change the places where organisms can live.

5 Sea Surface Temperature

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8 Climate and Weather More energy from the sun intercepted at the equator Redistribution of this excess energy around the globe causes different patterns of temperature and rainfall around the planet Temperature and moisture are major determinants of what kinds of plant life can exist in a particular environment Plant life dictates animal life

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10 Fish - Limits of Tolerance

11 Distribution of Life Over time life has evolved to fill all environments The range of environmental conditions at any place will dictate which organism s s tolerance ranges will be successful Temperature and moisture are major determinants of what is where but many other factors can be important

12 Major Terrestrial Biomes

13 Ecological Processes Energy from the sun and primary productivity. Materials for growth of organisms cycles in the environment. These cycles are driven by the biology, mostly through activities of microorganisms Cycles can be disrupted by man changing environments

14 Environments change all the time Change is a natural part of all environments. We have tried to put names and explanations on many of the changes we observe. Remember- no one told mother nature she had to work the way we want. There is a great deal we don t t understand.

15 Primary Succession - Land The rate of succession and the climax community achieved depends on soil structure, temperature and moisture

16 Secondary Succession- what happens to abandoned agricultural field

17 Eutrophication- natural aging of lakes

18 High Diversity Disturbance Gradient Low Diversity Climax No Impact Succession Begins Again Total Elimination This is a way to visualize how disturbance changes ecosystems New Climax New Climax Ecosystems tolerate a certain amount of change then get new climax

19 Disturbance- Ecosystem changes are natural. Man can change both the rate of change and the eventual outcome. Man can change nutrient cycles, land use changes impact succession, and recently we realize that man can change weather and therefore temperature and moisture.

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21 Temperature deviation from long term normal

22 Solid = coal Liquid = fuels Gases = methane Flaring = industry

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28 Potential Climate Change Impacts Health Impacts Weather-relat ed Mortality Infectious Diseases Air Quality-Respirat ory Illnesses Climate Changes Temperature Precipitation Sea Level Rise Agriculture Impacts Crop yields Irrigati on demands Forest Impacts Change in forest composit ion Shift geographic r ange of forests Forest Health and Producti vity Water Resource Impacts Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competit ion for water Impacts on Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend coastal comm unities Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecologi cal zones Loss of habitat and species Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health Course: Global Environment and Health Source: EPA, Global Change Research Program

29 Global Change We have examples of all the types of changes A change in one environment will result in changes in other environments The same stressor can cause different effects in different environments Most effects are indirect

30 50% higher death rate for elderly in high heat

31 Source: Colwell et al. Bay of Bengal SST and Cholera Dhaka 1994

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33 Models do not consider catastrophic weather events

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35 Major changes in NC- most in eastern NC Based on average of 5 models

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37 Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health Course: Global Environment and Health

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39 Emerging and Re-emerging Infections

40 Malaria Risk- 60% maybe at risk by 2050

41 Hantavirus Story More Rain More plant growth More deer mice More mice in dwellings Hantavirus Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic More human contact with Hantavirus

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47 Recent Evidence of Climate Change Previous 100 years most benign weather in last 5,000 years Since 1995 increases in hurricanes, floods, other catastrophic weather events. 5 of last ten years have highest temperatures in history 2005 hurricane season- any questions?

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50 Sea Level Rise Sea level has been rising slowly for last 500 years There are enough Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere now to give 0.5M rise. Much larger rises predicted for next 100 years It will impact all of us

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52 30M sea level rise

53 What are the challenges? How do we prepare for the future- mitigate or adapt? Who decides? How do we decide? UN- by 2015 climate change costs 15 billion pre year We need better data on factors that control environmental processes Multi-disciplinary teams to look at causes and effects Society/environment- decisions

54 All is Not Lost We are much better at recognizing problems We have a large array of options for dealing with most problems Global awareness and commitment are growing We have time The longer we wait the more expensive the solution will be

55 Panasonic Cell Phone Manufacture

56 Positive Signs Many countries, even non-kyota signers, are adopting CO 2 reduction policy NAS unequivocal statement that it is real Bush acknowledges reality 21 US States have energy policy in place to reduce emissions Alternative energy vehicles becoming hot as are alternative fuels Biodiesel from Hog Wastes Ethanol Increases in solar and wind energy use

57 Individual behavior change Suddenly, Bob realizes that he s part of the problem.