DETERMINATION OF THE MOST PROSPECTIVE RAW MATERIAL USING ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS (ANP) AND LINEAR GOAL PROGRAMMING (LGP)

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1 DETERMINATION OF THE MOST PROSPECTIVE RAW MATERIAL USING ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS (ANP) AND LINEAR GOAL PROGRAMMING (LGP) Fauza Danawat, Ist Surandar, and Deasy Kartka Rahayu Industral Engneerng Departement, Faculty of Engneerng, Unversty of Indonesa, Depok, Indonesa. Tel: (6221) Fax: (6221) Emal: ABSTRACT Indonesa has been sufferng from energy crss for nearly two decades. Therefore, accommodatve energy strategy from the government s requred by explotng of vegetaton fuel (bofuel). Bofuel can be made from varous sources. The analyss for choosng raw materal conssted of wde regon wth dfferent land condton. Research conducted by choosng alternatve of raw materal whch are palm tree, castor ol plant, coconut, and ceba plant, focusng n perspectve crtera control of beneft, cost, opportunty, and rsk (BCOR) wth Analytc Network Process (ANP) method wth superdecsons software. Result from ANP gve the sequence of prorty of raw materal to be developed that s palm tree, then followed by coconut, castor ol plant, and ceba plant. When gong to be developed more than one raw materal wth a number of specfed constrant, wth Lnear Goal Programmng (LGP) obtaned by raw materal of palm tree and coconut. Ths result s equal to obtaned at calculaton by ANP. The result not such an absolute value. Ths matter s caused by a global weght value obtaned dffer by sgnfcant. At calculaton wth the model assgnng global value s whch not too dfferng can be obtaned by a dfferent result. Key Words: ANP, LGP, Bodesel 1. INTRODUCTION Indonesa has been sufferng from energy crss for nearly two decades. The real proof that energy crss has been attackng the country may be seen from ts dependency to ol mport. Therefore, accommodatve energy strategy from the government s requred. In ths case, energy supply should be based on four mportant components,.e., ntensfcaton, dversfcaton, conservaton, and ndexaton. As stated n Presdent Regulaton No 5/2006 on Natonal Energy Polcy, the use of bofuel s targeted to 5% n The polcy s used as the reference by the Department of Energy and Mneral Resources n managng natonal energy so that the government creates substtuton target for desel fuel and gasolne of 2% by bodesel n 2010 and 5% n Although the percentage s low, the volume requred s at least 702 thousand klolter of bodesel for desel fuel and 420 thousand klolter of boethanol gasolne replacement n Bofuel can be made from varous sources. Based on Presdent Regulaton No 5/2006 on Natonal Energy Polcy, up to 2010, the government decdes to cultvate palm tree and castor 29.1

2 ol plant as the raw materals for bodesel and molases and starch as the raw materals for boethanol. Because Indonesa s wde and has dfferent land condton for each regon, nowadays there are many studes on varous raw materals that can be cultvated based on respectve regonal condton. Moreover, as stated n Presdent Regulaton No 5/2006 on Natonal Energy Polcy, begnnng n 2010, bodesel from raw materals other than palm and castor ol plant wll be cultvated. East Kalmantan contans wde estate area wth bg potental and ths can be the bggest place for developng raw materal of bofuel. As one of potental provnces for cultvatng bofuel materals, many studes on the possblty to develop bofuel producton have been carred out here. The study to be carred out s to evaluate the choce of the most sutable bodesel raw materal to cultvate n East Kalmantan by usng Analytc Network Process based on envronment, fnancal, socal, techncal aspects, and the use of Lnear Goal Programmng (LGP) to observe raw materal alternatves f more than one raw materals wll be chosen. 2. METHODS The analyss for choosng bodesel raw materal to cultvate n East Kalmantan s targeted for 4 raw materals. These nclude kelapa sawt, arak pagar, kelapa, and kapuk randu that can be cultvated n dry land. East Kalmantan s very potental for ts dry land estate. Wde land area wth hgh populaton avalable becomes basc captal. ANP s a decson makng method for choosng alternatves based on prorty wth some crtera and sub crtera (mult crtera) whch possble have relaton or lnk between them. Prncple work of ANP s problem structure whch s n form of network, wth relaton of clusters where network can accommodate the two ways functonal dependence that s nterdependent between upper level and lower level. ANP usng network wthout havng to specfy the level strctly herarchcal structure lke n Analytc Herarchy Process (AHP) and therefore can treat problems havng complex nterrelatonshps among multcrtera (dependences and feedbacks). Fgure 1. Herarchy and Network Sample Analytc Network Process or ANP s a general theory on relatve measurement to decrease composte prorty rato of mutually nteractve elements related to control crtera (Saaty, 1999). ANP s a mathematcal theory to enable us n systematcally managng dependence and feedback to capture and combne tangble and ntangble factors. Control herarchy ncludes hgh level crtera nvolved n decson makng. Ths provdes a way to compare each nteracton n the network. Saaty (1999) categorzes 4 basc control herarches ncludng many aspects,.e., beneft, opportunty, cost, and rsk, known as BCOR model. The control crtera may not absolutely be used when there are rrelevant crtera to the 29.2

3 case of decson makng nvolved. BCOR concept s to further focus when decdng crtera and sub-crtera for a decson makng model. Besdes, BCOR model facltates source persons wth dfferent background resultng n dfferent vew ponts n assessng problems nfluencng evaluaton when dong pared comparson. Fgure 2. BCOR Analyss Assessment conducted n the form of parwse comparson between elements whch s n network model. In ths research, parwse comparson entangles 5 responders from Dnas Perkebunan, Dnas Pertanan, and Research Insttute of Mulawarman Unversty n East Borneo who understandng well to gve assessment. Crtera and subcrtera referrng to BCOR (beneft, opportunty, cost, and rsk) can be seen n table 1. Table 1. Crtera and Sub crtera BCOR (beneft, opportunty, cost, and rsk) Crtera Sub crtera Indcator Beneft Socal Techncal Opportunty Envronment Fnancal Cost Envronment Fnancal Techncal Economc growth Communty actvty Productvty of ol effcency Plantng perod Productve age Sol structure Preparaton process Storage Utlzaton of sde results Waste Land development Industry expanson Economc Return Investor nterest Waste Land development Operatonal cost Labor cost Productvty of ol effcency % Years Years hectare Rp/year hectare Rp./ton Rp./hectare % 29.3

4 Rsk Envronment Techncal Plantng perod Manufacture process Waste Land development Sol structure Storage years hectare The pared comparson s carred out on crtera and sub crtera to obtan global weghts from each control crtera. The weght s multpled and entered nto a matrx known as weghted supermatrx. Each column of the supermatrx s normalzed to obtan the each value called lmtng supermatrx (Mongkut Pantanakulcha, 2006). Supermatrx (W) wll ncrease as n formula (1) to obtan global prorty. k lm W (1) k If W has ts effect on the system, then two or n lmtng supermatrces are possble. In ths case, Cesaro (2) calculaton s used to obtan average prorty weght. lm k 1 N N 1 W k (2) Convergent value for each element show global weght of the system. The global weght s normalzed to obtan relatve weght of each alternatve. Raw materal alternatve s evaluated based on control herarchy of beneft, cost, opportunty, and rsk. If each control herarchy s gven the same weght, all evaluaton of each alternatve s obtaned wth formula (3). Benefts Opportuntes Multplca tve Score (3) Costs Rsks The use of Lexcographc or Lnear Goal Programmng (LGP) model as mathematcal technque ncludes measures and sub crtera. In mathematcal calculaton wth Lnear Goal Programmng (LGP), weghtng stage was carred out usng ANP weghtng to get crtera evaluaton wth obectve functon to mnmze the devaton from each crteron. FT Mn Z = [(P beneft * d1 - ) + (P cost *d2 + ) + (P opprtunty *d3 - ) + (P rsk *d4 + )] (4) LGP s used when a decson makng want to choose 2 or more alternatves by consderng optmzaton obtaned from the exstng constrans of the system. Wll be developed two choce of alternatve of raw materal wth the obect functon and constrans as follows. Lnear Goal Programmng Functon Z max = B xx As beneft obectve functon (5) 29.4

5 Z mn = C xx As cost obectve functon (6) Z max = O xx As opportunty obectve functon (7) Z mn = R xx As rsk obectve functon (8) Wth constrans as follows. X D (9) Q max x Y X, (10) Q max x Y X, (12) Y n (13) Wth: B same as beneft level for raw materal that planted at area C same as cost level for raw materal that planted at area O same as opportunty level for raw materal that planted at area R same as rsk level for raw materal that planted at area D sum of wde area that planted by raw materal Q max area lmt of area for raw materal n number of raw materal whch wll be choose for product. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Processng for ANP s carred out wth Superdecsons software. Fgure 3. Subnet Cost, Opportunty, and Rsk 29.5

6 Fnal results of raw materals choce can be seen from alternatve lnes of raw materal n convergent fnal supermatrx. Raw materal alternatves chosen to be cultvated are those wth hghest fnal values. From the results of Superdecsons processng, raw materal alternatve of kelapa sawt gvng value 45,95%, arak pagar, kelapa, and kapuk randu gves respectve fnal value of 13.38%, 34.68%, and 5.99%. Table 2. BCOR Shynteszed Alternatf Ideal Normalzed Raw Kelapa Sawt Jarak Pagar Kelapa Kapuk Randu Before mathematcal calculaton wth Lnear Goal Programmng (LGP), weghtng stage was carred out usng ANP weghtng to get crtera evaluaton rank based on BCOR perspectve. Table 3. Weght of BCOR crtera No. Crtera Weght 1. Beneft Cost Opportunty Rsk Consstency rato10% From the result of LGP calculaton wth LINGO software, the result found from each BCOR crtera or as a whole s equal to the result obtaned from ANP method n the case of the most sutable raw materals choce to cultvate. The most prospectve bodesel s raw materal have to be developed f there are two alternatves wll be chosen are kelapa sawt and kelapa. Crtera of maxmze Beneft functon gves obectve value of weght unts. Mnmze obectve of Cost functon gves weght unts. Maxmze obectve of Opportunty functon gves weght unts. Mnmze obectve of Rsk functon gves weght unts. 3.1 Senstvty Analyss In superdecson, senstvty analyss obtans by changng frst formulaton from multplcatve to addtve. It s because multplcatve formula s formulatons whch multply ther own weght so the result s very stable. From ths superdecsons senstvty analyss result, decson nfluence by the changng of varable value. 29.6

7 Fgure 4. Senstvty Analyss for Beneft Fgure 5. Senstvty Analyss for Cost Fgure 6. Senstvty Analyss for Opportunty Fgure 7. Senstvty Analyss for Rsk 29.7

8 Defnton: : Kelapa sawt : Kelapa : Kapuk randu : Jarak Pagar ANP focus on prorty sequences. But f decson makng want to choose 2 or more alternatves, t wll be better that the decson not only pursuant to prorty sequence. LGP assst n decson makng more than one alternatve to be selected by reckonng best value. At ths case, because of nexstence of concernng farm whch s avalable to each alternatves, hence assumed that wll be developed two alternatves of raw materal wth the value s n equal sze. From LINGO result, when weght of beneft, cost, opportunty, and rsk n alterng, hence happened the change of selected raw materal. 4. CONCLUSION In decdng to choose whch raw materal most sutable to cultvate n East Kalmantan, palm tree s chosen from 4 alternatves,.e., palm tree (kelapa sawt), castor ol plant (arak pagar), coconut (kelapa), and slk-cotton tree (kapuk randu). East Kalmantan has wde estate area, and based on Presdent Regulaton No 5/2006 about Natonal Energy Polcy, more than one type of plantaton wll be cultvated as the raw materal of bodesel. Based on the rank of ANP calculaton result, prorty obtaned frst s kelapa sawt, and followed by kelapa, arak pagar, and kapuk randu wth respectve value of 45.95% % %. dan 5.99%. The result form LGP optmzaton for cultvatng 2 raw materals, kelapa sawt and kelapa are chosen. LGP optmzaton gves smlar result wth ANP method. Ths s because global value for each alternatve s sgnfcantly dfferent. From senstvty analyss result of ANP calculaton, the alternatve wll change f control crtera value (BCOR) changes sgnfcantly, although kelapa sawt generally s n the frst prorty. From the LGP calculaton, dfferent result may be obtaned f global values are not too far dfferent. REFERENCES 1. Paper on Journal Azz, Mad, Usng ANP for Locaton Analyss of Plywood and Veneer Industry Plants, MCDM, 2004, hal. 6 Wnmalen, Dederk JD Analyss of Beneft, Opportuntes, Cost, and Rsk wth AHP-ANP, ISAHP, 2005, hal.1 Sarksh, Joseph, Quanttatve Model for Performance Measurement Systems Alternate Consderatons, Internatonal Journal of Producton Economcs 86, 2003, hal 88. Ferhan, Ceby, An Integrated Approach for Suppler Selecton, Logstc Informaton Management, Emerald Insght, Vol 16, 2003, hal Ghodyspour, A Decson Support System for Supler Selecton usng an Integrated Analytc Herarchy Process and Lnear Programmng, Int. Journal of Producton Economc, 1998, hal Woo Lee, Jm, Usng Analytc Network Process and Goal Programmng for Interdependent Informaton System Proect Selecton, Computer and Operatons Research, Elsever Scence,

9 2. Electronc Publcaton, Informaton from Internet Pantanakulcha, Mongkut, Mult Crtera Evaluaton of Materals for Doors and Wndows Usng Analytcal Network Process (ANP): A Case Study from Sr Lanka, Internatonal Conference on Green and Sustanable Innovaton, Thaland, Rahmad, Are, BRDST-BPPT, Workshop KMI, 2005 Blueprnt Pengelolaan Energ Nasonal Bodesel Technology Roadmap. Mahd, Syaful, From Economc Valuaton to Polcy Modellng Usng Analytcal Network Process: A Case of Leuser Ecosystem n Aceh, Indonesa, Cornell Unversty, Saaty, Rozann W., Decson Makng In Complex Envronments, Superdecsons, The Analytc Network Process for Decson Makng. Soerawdaa, Tatang H., Membangun Industr Bodesel d Indonesa, Forum Bodesel Indonesa (FBI), Bandung, 16 Desember