Improving the use of models in RBMP

Transcription

1 Improving the use of models in RBMP Turo Hjerppe Sirkka Tattari Finnish Environment Institute 8 th Nordic WFD conference , Trondheim

2 What s the problem? There is lack in uptake of model results in RBMP There is a wide range of models and assessment tools available for the river basin management Not effectively used Malve et al Participatory operations model for cost-efficient monitoring and modeling of river basins A systematic approach. Science of the Total Environment 540: 79-89

3 Solution(s)? 3

4 The effectiveness of information In the research of science-policy interfaces, three attributes have been identified regarding the effectiveness of information in influencing decision making (Cash et al. 2003) Credibility Relevance Legitimacy Also model results should meet these attributes in order to be efficient in knowledge transfer to policy processes

5 Credibility Credibility concerns the scientific basis of the models (model complexity) and assessment of model uncertainty.

6 Relevance Relevance concerns the societal and political relevance and its output can answer questions that have been brought up in the context usability of the models e.g. in terms of resources needed or timeliness

7 Legitimacy Legitimacy concerns the perception that the production of models and their results has been respectful of stakeholders divergent values and beliefs, unbiased in its conduct, and fair in its treatment of opposing views and interests thelogicofscinece.com 7

8 Trade-offs (Sarkki et al. 2014) Clarity-complexity trade-off Simple, clear, strong messages (relevance) vs. thorough treatment of uncertainties and systemic dimensions (credibility and legitimacy) Speed-quality trade-off Timely and rapid responses to policy needs (relevance) vs. timeconsuming quality assessment (credibility) and/or consensus building (legitimacy) Push-pull trade-off Following strongly policy demand (relevance) vs. more supplyoriented research strategies to enable identification of emerging issues or development of innovative solutions (credibility and legitimacy)

9 Assessment framework 9

10 Interviewee 1 Interviewee 2 Interviewee 3 Interviewee 4 Interviewee 5 Interviewee 6 Weight elicitation Stakeholder workshop (n=17) Authorities 0,36 0,39 0,25 Credibility Stakeholders Modelers 0,35 0,35 0,35 0,36 0,31 0,28 Relevance Legitimacy 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 Personal interviews (n=6) 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Legitimacy Relevance Credibiliy Authorities Stakeholders Modelers 10

11 Results an example Weight elicitation of Interviewee 1 Most weight on relevance The performance of evaluated models divided on the main assessment criteria COHERENS KUTOVA INCA SWAT DEMCROP DREMFIA VIHMA VEMALA RUSLE LLR 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 Usability index [0-1] Credibility Relevance Legitimacy 11

12 Conclusions and other aspects affecting usability Usability of a model is balancing between credibility and relevance Timing is crucial Legitimacy goes often hand in hand with credibility Visualisation of model results plays crucial role The model and/or results should be simple In addition, logical and easy to use user interface Communication of uncertainties Active dialogue between modelers, authorities and stakeholders is needed To improve mutual understanding To increase the awareness on models 12

13 A good practice: Road map for modeling in RBMP A strategic document for model development and use of models in RBMP Part A: Describes the models and their potential use in RBMP States the essential development needs related to individual models Prioritization of model development projects for upcoming 3 years Long term vision and development needs of the modelling environment Part B: A plan for the use of models in the RBMP process States the information needs and related schedule of the RBMP process 13

14 References Cash, D.W., Clark, W.C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N.M. et al Knowledge systems for sustainable development. PNAS 100/14: Malve, O., Hjerppe, T., Tattari, S., Väisänen, S., Huttunen, I., Kotamäki, N., Kallio, K., Taskinen, A. & Kauppila, P Participatory operations model for cost-efficient monitoring and modeling of river basins A systematic approach. Science of the total environment 540: DOI: /j.scitotenv Sarkki, S., Niemela, J., Tinch, R., van den Hove, S., Watt, A., and Young, J Balancing credibility, relevance and legitimacy: A critical assessment of trade-offs in science policy interfaces. Science and Public Policy 41: Modelling & Software 83: Thank you! 14