Predicting the Markets Chapter 4 Charts: Predicting Inflation

Transcription

1 Predicting the Markets Chapter Charts: February, Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents - February, / Chapter Charts: www.

3 Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 9s 97s 9s 99s s s Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CPI Inflation Headline Core* * Excluding food and energy. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

4 7 7 7 Figure. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE 97-9 (dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale) * Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 9 to 9, daily thereafter. Source: Haver Analytics. Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 97-9 Inflation Average Hourly Earnings* CPI * Production & nonsupervisory workers. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

5 9 7 Figure. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS* T * Production & nonsupervisory workers. Note: T = President Reagan fires members of PATCO on August, 9. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. UNION MEMBERS (as a percent of private wage & salary employment) Private Sector Union Membership Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

6 Figure 7. AGE WAVE & INFLATION 9 7 Age Wave* Inflation Trend** * Percent of labor force - years old. ** Five-year percent change in CPI at annual rate. Figure. PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS (-quarter percent change, annual rate) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

7 Figure 9. GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS (9=) Price Deflators Information Processing Equipment Software Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. RETAIL SALES: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES (GMS) & ONLINE SHOPPING (as percent of total In-Store + Online GAFO*) Figure. Percent of Total GAFO* Online** GMS: Warehouse Clubs & Super Stores GMS: Department Stores & Others Nov * GAFO (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture, and other sales) includes retailers that specialize in department-store types of merchandise such as furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliances, clothing & accessories, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music, general merchandise, office supply, stationery, and gift stores. ** Electronic shopping and mail order houses. Source: Census Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

8 Figure. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: -97 War of (-) 9 CPI** 9 9 Cold War (97-99) Oct World War I (9-9) World War II (99-9) Civil War (-) * Annual data. Base index from to 97 is 97 =. ** 9-=. Source: Census Bureau, Historical Statistics of the United States. Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED ECONOMIES Source: IMF. - Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

9 Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN Source: Haver Analytics. - Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES: DURABLE GOODS (percent change) US Eurozone Japan Sweden Switzerland Taiwan UK Page 7 / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

10 Figure. CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX Source: China National Bureau of Statistics. - - Figure. CHINA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Source: Haver Analytics. - Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

11 Figure 7. OUTPUT GAP: ACTUAL DIVIDED BY POTENTIAL REAL GDP (percent) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Congressional Budget Office and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 9 Figure. RESOURCE UTILIZATION RATE & OUTPUT GAP (percent) Resource Utilization Rate* 9 Output Gap** 9 Q * Average of all industries capacity utilization rate and employment rate, i.e., percentage of labor force that is employed. ** Actual divided by potential real GDP in percent. Source: Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Board. Page 9 / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

12 . Figure 9. NON-ACCELERATING INFLATION RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT (NAIRU): ESTIMATED & PROJECTED (percent) Source: Congressional Budget Office. Figure. NAIRU* MINUS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (percent) Q * Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. Source: Congressional Budget Office. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

13 Figure. US MONEY MULTIPLIER (M as a ratio of Monetary Base) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure. M VELOCITY (Nominal GDP as a ratio of M) Q Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

14 Figure. WAGE INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (using average hourly earnings) Unemployment Rate (percent) Average Hourly Earnings* * Production & nonsupervisory workers. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa) Underemployment Rate* Plus Unemployment Rate U- Rate** Unemployment Rate * Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force. ** Unemployed plus marginally attached Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

15 .... Figure. JOB OPENINGS: NATIONAL & SMALL BUSINESS (percent, -month average) JOLTS: Job Openings Rate* NFIB: Small Business with Job Openings** * The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus job openings level. ** First month of every quarter from 97 to 9, then monthly. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business. Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NFIB: Small Business with Job Openings* (percent, -month average) Unemployment Rate (percent) * First month of every quarter from 97 to 9, then monthly. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

16 Figure 7. WAGE INFLATION & SMALL BUSINESS JOB OPENINGS 9 7 Average Hourly Earnings* NFIB: Small Business with Job Openings** (percent, -month average, months ahead) * Production & nonsupervisory workers ** First month of every quarter from 97 to 9, then monthly. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business. Figure. QUITS RATE & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX. Quits Rate* (percent, sa). Consumer Confidence Index (9=, sa) Nov * Private industry. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

17 7 Figure 9. TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS 7 Nov Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & QUALIFIED APPLICANTS (percent, sa) Percent Small Business With Few or no qualified applicants for job openings With Job Openings* * First month of every quarter from 97 to 9, then monthly. Source: National Federation of Independent Business. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

18 Figure. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average Hourly Earnings Private Industry (.9) Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Figure. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: MANUFACTURING* * Production & nonsupervisory workers. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

19 Figure. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: PRIVATE INDUSTRY Employment Cost Index Total Compensation Wages & Salaries Benefits Q Figure. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI) Average Hourly Earnings* ECI Wages & Salaries** * Production and nonsupervisory workers. ** All private industry. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Page 7 / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

20 Figure. HOURLY COMPENSATION & AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm Business AHE: Production & Nonsupervisory Workers Q Figure. HOURLY COMPENSATION & EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX Hourly Compensation: Nonfarm Business ECI: Private Industry Workers Q Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

21 Figure 7. ATLANTA FED S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER Wage Growth Tracker* Average Hourly Earnings** * Three-month moving average of median wage growth. ** Production & Nonsupervisory Workers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. 7 Figure. ATLANTA FED S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER* 7 Job Switcher Job Stayer Nov Nov * Three-month moving average of median wage growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Page 9 / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

22 Figure 9. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Unemployment Rate (percent) Core CPI* * Excluding food and energy. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure. NONFARM BUSINESS: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR & HOURLY COMPENSATION Nonfarm Business Implicit Price Deflator Hourly Compensation Q Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

23 Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN CPI Inflation Headline Core* BOJ s Inflation Target * Excluding food. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications... Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: EUROZONE ECB s Inflation Target.... CPI Inflation Headline Core* * Excluding energy and unprocessed food. Source: Haver Analytics. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

24 Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS PCED Headline Core* Fed s Inflation Target * Excluding food and energy prices Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure. S&P INDEX & QE QE QE QE / / S&P Index US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS (trillion dollars) Note: QE (//) = Fed starts buying $.tn in mortgage securities. QE expanded (//9) = Fed starts buying $bn in Treasuries. QE (//) = Fed starts buying $bn in Treasuries. QE (9//) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended). QE expanded (//) = Fed starts buying $bn/month in Treasuries. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor s Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

25 Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (indexed 99 =, ratio scale) Headline Consumer Price Index Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX & PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (indexed 99 =, ratio scale) Ex Food & Energy Consumer Price Index Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

26 7 Figure 7. CONSUMER PRICES 7 Headline Inflation CPI PCED* * Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics..... Figure. CONSUMER PRICES Core Inflation* CPI PCED** * Excluding food and energy. ** Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

27 .. Figure 9. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX.... CPI Inflation Rent of Shelter Core Excluding Shelter Figure. CONSUMER PRICES 9 Medical Care Services CPI PCED* * Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

28 .. Figure. CONSUMER PRICES.... Consumer Durable Goods CPI PCED* * Personal consumption expenditures deflator. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR Core PCED Official Market Based* * Market-based PCE is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, financial services furnished without payment) and the final consumption expenses of nonprofit institutions serving households. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / February, / Chapter Charts: www.

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