US Economic Indicators: Business Sales & Inventories

Transcription

1 US Economic Indicators: Business Sales & Inventories January 1, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Business Sales 1-2 Inventory Investment 3 Business Inventories 4-6 Real Inventories-To-Sales Ratio 7 Manufacturing & Trade Sales 8-9 Railcar Loadings & ATA Truck Index 1 Manufacturing & Trade Sales & Goods GDP 11 Inventories-to-Sales Ratios January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

3 Figure 1. MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (trillion dollars, saar) Business Sales MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (yearly percent change) Ex Petro REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (trilions of 29 dollars, saar) REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (yearly percent change) BUSINESS INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES- TO-SALES RATIO Source: US Department of Commerce. Page 1 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

4 Business Sales Figure 2. MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS (trillion dollars, saar) MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS (yearly percent change) WHOLESALE SALES (trillion dollars, saar) WHOLESALE SALES (yearly percent change) RETAIL SALES (trillion dollars, saar) Ex Gasoline & Heating Oil Sales RETAIL SALES (yearly percent change) Ex Gasoline & Heating Oil Sales Source: US Department of Commerce. Page 2 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

5 Figure 3. INVENTORY INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) Inventory Investment Q GDP Accounts: Change in Private Inventories Real Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) INVENTORY INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) GDP Accounts: Change in Private Inventories Nominal Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) INVENTORY INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) Q * Manufacturing finished goods inventories plus wholesale and retail inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nominal Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) Real Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) Page 3 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

6 Business Inventories Figure 4. MANUFACTURING & TRADE INVENTORIES* (billion dollars, sa) Nominal Dollars 29 Dollars * Manufacturing finished goods inventories plus wholesale and retail inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 5. INVENTORY INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) Q GDP Accounts: Change in Private Inventories Nominal Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) Real Business Inventories* (3-month change, saar) * Manufacturing finished goods inventories plus wholesale and retail inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 4 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

7 Business Inventories Figure 6. MANUFACTURING & TRADE INVENTORIES* (billion dollars, sa) WHOLESALE INVENTORIES (billion dollars, sa) MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES* (billion dollars, sa) RETAIL INVENTORIES (billion dollars, sa) Ex Autos * Manufacuturing inventories are finished goods inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 5 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

8 Business Inventories Figure 7. MANUFACTURING & TRADE INVENTORIES* (billions of 29 dollars, sa) WHOLESALE TRADE INVENTORIES (billions of 29 dollars, sa) MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES (billions of 29 dollars, sa) RETAIL TRADE INVENTORIES (billions of 29 dollars, sa) Ex Autos * Manufacuturing inventories are finished goods inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 6 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

9 Real Inventories-To-Sales Ratio 1.65 Figure 8. REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO* REAL WHOLESALE TRADE INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO REAL MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO REAL RETAIL TRADE INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO Ex Autos * Manufacuturing inventories are finished goods inventories. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page 7 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

10 9 6 Figure 9. Manufacturing & Trade Sales REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) Q Real Business Sales* (3.5) Real GDP (2.3) * Inflation-adjusted manufacturing & trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 1. REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES vs. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Real Business Sales* (3.5) Industrial Production: Manufacturing (2.4) * Inflation-adjusted manufacturing & trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Federal Reserve Board. Page 8 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

11 Manufacturing & Trade Sales Figure 11. REAL GDP: GOODS vs. REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (billions of 29 dollars, saar) Real Business Sales* Real GDP: Goods Q * Inflation-adjusted manufacturing & trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 12. REAL GDP: GOODS vs. REAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES (yearly percent change in 3-month moving average) Real Business Sales* (3.4) Real GDP: Goods (4.5) * Inflation-adjusted manufacturing & trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 9 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

12 Figure 13. Railcar Loadings & ATA Truck Index RAILCAR LOADINGS & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 12/ Business Inventories (billions of 29 dollars, sa) Intermodal ex Trailers (thousand units, 26-wa) Source: Atlantic Systems and Census Bureau Figure 14. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & REAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES Business Inventories (billions of 29 dollars, sa) ATA Truck Tonnage Index (2=1, 3-ma, sa) Source: American Trucking Association and Census Bureau. 9 Page 1 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

13 Figure 15. Manufacturing & Trade Sales & Goods GDP RATIO NOMINAL MANUFACTURING & TRADE SALES TO NOMINAL GDP OF GOODS Q Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 16. US BUSINESS SALES* (yearly percent change) (7.8) leum (5.7) * Manufacturing and trade sales. Source: US Department of Commerce. Page 11 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

14 1.8 Figure 17. BUSINESS INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO Inventories-to-Sales Ratios Nominal (1.3) Real () Source: US Department of Commerce. 2.2 Figure 18. MANUFACTURERS INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO Nominal () Real (1.6) Source: US Department of Commerce. 1. Page 12 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

15 1.5 Figure 19. Inventories-to-Sales Ratios WHOLESALERS INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO 1.5 Nominal () Real (1.3) Source: US Department of Commerce Figure 2. RETAILERS INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO Nominal () Real (1.3) Source: US Department of Commerce. Page 13 / January 1, 218 / Business Sales & Inventories www.

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