Performance Derby: S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Forward & Annual Earnings Change Since Passage of TCJA

Transcription

1 Performance Derby: S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Forward & Annual Earnings Change Since Passage of TCJA April 18, 2018 Dr. Ed Yardeni Joe Abbott Please visit our sites at blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents % Change in 2018 Earnings Since TCJA 1 % Change in 2019 Earnings Since TCJA 2 % Change in Forward Earnings Since TCJA 3 April 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward & Annual Earnings Since TCJA

3 % Change in 2018 Earnings Since TCJA Table 1: S&P Earnings (percent change since passage of TCJA on 12/20/2017, Thursday data as of April 12, 2018) Oil & Gas Drilling -/+ Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 85.4 Department Stores 35.4 Steel 28.9 Copper sub industry 28.1 Energy Sector 23.6 Independent Power Producers & Energy Tr Trading Companies & Distributors 20.7 Health Care Facilities 19.6 Trucking 19.0 General Merchandise Stores 18.9 Integrated Oil & Gas 18.7 Health Care Services 18.6 Integrated Telecommunication Services 17.7 Broadcasting 17.2 Construction & Engineering 17.1 Computer & Electronics Retail 16.9 Agricultural & Farm Machinery 16.7 Specialized Consumer Services 16.7 Telecommunications Services Sector 16.3 Railroads 16.0 Diversified Support Services 15.8 Human Resource & Employment Services 15.4 Managed Health Care 14.9 Aerospace & Defense 14.9 Regional Banks 14.5 Environmental & Facilities Services 14.2 Construction & Farm Machinery 14.1 Financial Exchanges & Data 13.7 Air Freight & Couriers 13.3 Diversified Banks 13.1 Semiconductors 12.7 Commodity Chemicals 12.7 Apparel Retail 12.3 Consumer Finance 12.1 Hotel & Resort REITs 11.8 Semiconductor Equipment 11.8 Investment Banking & Brokerage 11.7 Airlines 11.3 Home Improvement Retail 11.3 Application Software 11.3 Cable & Satellite 11.0 Financials Sector 11.0 Movies & Entertainment 10.9 Paper Packaging 10.9 Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 10.8 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 10.7 Automotive Retail 10.6 Multi-Sector Holdings 10.6 Real Estate Services 10.6 Multi-Line Insurance 9.8 Industrials Sector 9.5 Brewers 9.0 Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 9.0 Asset Management & Custody Banks 9.0 Homebuilding 8.9 Apparel & Accessories 8.9 Distributors 7.9 S&P Property & Casualty Insurance 7.8 Consumer Discretionary Sector 7.7 Data Processing & Outsourced Services 7.7 Materials Sector 7.6 Restaurants 7.3 Reinsurance 7.3 Agricultural Products 7.1 Communications Equipment 7.1 Life & Health Insurance 6.8 Systems Software 6.8 Hypermarkets & Super Centers 6.2 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 1 / April 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward & Annual Earnings Since TCJA Publishing & Printing 6.2 Hotels 6.2 Food Distributors 6.1 Advertising 5.6 Information Technology Sector 5.5 Distillers & Vintners 5.3 Industrial Machinery 5.3 Health Care Distributors 5.2 Packaged Foods 5.2 Casinos & Gaming 5.2 Industrial Gasses 5.1 Home Furnishings 5.1 Tobacco 5.0 Health Care Sector 4.9 Personal Products 4.7 Food Retail 4.4 Automobile Manufacturers 4.3 Consumer Staples Sector 4.2 Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 4.2 Home Entertainment Software 4.1 Soft Drinks 4.1 Building Products 3.9 Internet Software & Services 3.5 Biotechnology 3.4 Consumer Electronics 3.4 Electrical Components & Equipment 3.2 Diversified Chemicals 3.0 Gold 3.0 Household Products 2.6 Auto Parts & Equipment 2.4 Life Sciences Tools & Services 2.3 Health Care Equipment 2.1 Drug Retail 2.0 Pharmaceuticals 1.9 Metal & Glass Containers 1.9 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 1.8 IT Consulting & Other Services 1.6 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 1.6 Utilities Sector 1.6 Insurance Brokers 1.6 Construction Materials 1.4 Multi-Utilities 1.4 Health Care Technology 1.3 Speciality Chemicals 1.2 Tires & Rubber 0.7 Footwear 0.6 Electric Utilities 0.6 Industrial Conglomerates 0.5 Electronic Equipment & Instruments 0.2 Water Utilities -0.3 Health Care Supplies -1.5 Office REITs -3.0 Retail REITs -3.2 Electronic Manufacturing Services -3.5 Electronic Components -3.5 Household Appliances -3.7 Industrial REITs -5.2 Real Estate sector -5.4 Speciality Stores -7.2 Specialized REITs -7.4 Research & Consulting Services -9.3 Residential REITs -9.3 Housewares & Specialities -9.5 Motorcycle Manufacturers Health Care REITs Alternative Carriers Leisure Products -27.7

4 % Change in 2019 Earnings Since TCJA Table 2: S&P Earnings (percent change since passage of TCJA on 12/20/2017, Thursday data as of April 12, 2018) Oil & Gas Drilling Department Stores 43.5 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 39.5 Broadcasting 27.9 Copper sub industry 23.7 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 22.8 Trading Companies & Distributors 21.5 Computer & Electronics Retail 21.3 General Merchandise Stores 21.2 Homebuilding 21.2 Trucking 20.8 Steel 20.4 Specialized Consumer Services 19.6 Agricultural & Farm Machinery 18.5 Human Resource & Employment Services 18.1 Integrated Telecommunication Services 17.9 Construction & Engineering 17.7 Health Care Facilities 17.6 Railroads 17.5 Airlines 16.8 Health Care Services 16.8 Independent Power Producers & Energy Tr Telecommunications Services Sector 16.1 Energy Sector 15.9 Aerospace & Defense 15.4 Environmental & Facilities Services 15.2 Commodity Chemicals 15.2 Managed Health Care 14.8 Food Distributors 14.5 Semiconductors 14.4 Regional Banks 14.3 Real Estate Services 14.3 Air Freight & Couriers 13.8 Financial Exchanges & Data 13.6 Consumer Finance 13.3 Movies & Entertainment 13.2 Apparel Retail 12.5 Automotive Retail 12.2 Diversified Banks 12.1 Communications Equipment 12.1 Construction & Farm Machinery 12.1 Diversified Support Services 12.0 Investment Banking & Brokerage 11.7 Paper Packaging 11.7 Home Improvement Retail 11.1 Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 11.0 Financials Sector 10.5 Application Software 10.5 Asset Management & Custody Banks 10.3 Casinos & Gaming 10.2 Food Retail 9.8 Industrials Sector 9.6 Integrated Oil & Gas 9.2 Data Processing & Outsourced Services 8.9 Multi-Line Insurance 8.7 Consumer Discretionary Sector 8.6 Property & Casualty Insurance 8.5 Apparel & Accessories 8.4 Distributors 8.2 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 8.1 Reinsurance 8.0 S&P Semiconductor Equipment 7.9 Life & Health Insurance 7.7 Gold 7.6 Multi-Sector Holdings 7.6 Cable & Satellite 7.4 Brewers 7.3 Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 7.3 Agricultural Products 7.2 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / April 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward & Annual Earnings Since TCJA Information Technology Sector 7.2 Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 7.1 Restaurants 7.0 Materials Sector 6.4 Hotels 6.4 Hypermarkets & Super Centers 6.2 Distillers & Vintners 6.2 Industrial Machinery 6.1 Health Care Distributors 6.0 Packaged Foods 6.0 Tobacco 5.9 Industrial Gasses 5.5 Health Care Sector 4.9 Consumer Staples Sector 4.8 Advertising 4.6 Consumer Electronics 4.6 Publishing & Printing 4.6 Systems Software 4.5 Electrical Components & Equipment 4.5 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 4.4 Soft Drinks 4.3 Biotechnology 4.1 Personal Products 4.1 Internet Software & Services 3.5 Automobile Manufacturers 3.3 Construction Materials 3.3 Household Products 3.2 Building Products 3.2 Auto Parts & Equipment 2.6 Home Furnishings 2.6 Health Care Equipment 2.6 Life Sciences Tools & Services 2.6 Diversified Chemicals 2.6 Home Entertainment Software 2.6 Health Care Technology 2.4 Insurance Brokers 1.8 Utilities Sector 1.7 Pharmaceuticals 1.5 Footwear 1.4 Hotel & Resort REITs 1.3 Drug Retail 1.3 IT Consulting & Other Services 1.1 Electric Utilities 1.1 Multi-Utilities 1.0 Speciality Chemicals 0.2 Electronic Equipment & Instruments 0.0 Water Utilities -0.3 Motorcycle Manufacturers -0.8 Metal & Glass Containers -1.3 Tires & Rubber -1.5 Electronic Components -1.8 Health Care Supplies -2.2 Household Appliances -2.3 Electronic Manufacturing Services -2.8 Office REITs -3.2 Industrial Conglomerates -3.2 Retail REITs -5.1 Real Estate sector -5.7 Speciality Stores -5.9 Specialized REITs -5.9 Industrial REITs -6.8 Research & Consulting Services -7.2 Residential REITs -8.0 Housewares & Specialities Leisure Products Health Care REITs Alternative Carriers -24.3

5 % Change in Forward Earnings Since TCJA Table 3: S&P 500 Forward Earnings (percent change since passage of TCJA on 12/20/2017, Thursday data as of April 12, 2018) Oil & Gas Drilling -/+ Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 98.7 Department Stores 32.9 Energy Sector 28.9 Steel 27.5 Trucking 26.4 Trading Companies & Distributors 25.1 Broadcasting 24.9 Agricultural & Farm Machinery 24.7 Independent Power Producers & Energy Tr Construction & Engineering 23.6 Health Care Facilities 23.2 Health Care Services 22.2 General Merchandise Stores 21.3 Railroads 21.1 Aerospace & Defense 20.5 Diversified Support Services 20.1 Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 19.8 Managed Health Care 19.8 Computer & Electronics Retail 19.7 Application Software 19.3 Integrated Oil & Gas 19.3 Human Resource & Employment Services 19.0 Homebuilding 18.8 Regional Banks 18.4 Construction & Farm Machinery 18.3 Air Freight & Couriers 18.3 Integrated Telecommunication Services 18.2 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 18.0 Airlines 17.9 Environmental & Facilities Services 17.7 Diversified Banks 17.7 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 17.6 Financial Exchanges & Data 17.5 Specialized Consumer Services 17.2 Telecommunications Services Sector 17.0 Consumer Finance 16.7 Food Distributors 16.7 Investment Banking & Brokerage 16.3 Cable & Satellite 16.1 Automotive Retail 16.0 Apparel Retail 15.4 Home Improvement Retail 15.0 Paper Packaging 15.0 Financials Sector 14.9 Casinos & Gaming 14.9 Movies & Entertainment 14.7 Semiconductors 14.6 Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 14.4 Industrials Sector 14.2 Copper sub industry 14.1 Multi-Sector Holdings 13.9 Data Processing & Outsourced Services 13.7 Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 13.6 Multi-Line Insurance 13.5 Commodity Chemicals 13.3 Real Estate Services 13.2 Communications Equipment 12.6 Asset Management & Custody Banks 12.6 Apparel & Accessories 12.5 Consumer Discretionary Sector 12.2 Semiconductor Equipment 12.1 S&P Brewers 11.5 Hotels 11.3 Restaurants 11.1 Materials Sector 10.9 Distributors 10.8 Publishing & Printing 10.3 Construction Materials 10.1 Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 3 / April 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward & Annual Earnings Since TCJA Reinsurance 10.1 Personal Products 10.0 Property & Casualty Insurance 10.0 Internet Software & Services 9.9 Agricultural Products 9.8 Information Technology Sector 9.6 Industrial Machinery 9.5 Life & Health Insurance 9.5 Gold 9.1 Health Care Distributors 9.1 Hotel & Resort REITs 9.0 Diversified Chemicals 9.0 Distillers & Vintners 8.9 Hypermarkets & Super Centers 8.8 Home Entertainment Software 8.7 Tobacco 8.5 Industrial Gasses 8.4 Home Furnishings 8.4 Health Care Sector 8.3 Advertising 8.1 Systems Software 8.0 Electrical Components & Equipment 7.5 Metal & Glass Containers 7.5 Biotechnology 7.5 Packaged Foods 7.4 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 7.3 Building Products 7.1 Consumer Staples Sector 7.1 Soft Drinks 6.9 Food Retail 6.4 Life Sciences Tools & Services 6.4 Tires & Rubber 6.1 Health Care Equipment 5.8 Auto Parts & Equipment 5.8 Health Care Technology 5.5 Insurance Brokers 5.5 Household Products 5.3 Speciality Chemicals 5.3 Footwear 5.2 Consumer Electronics 5.0 Drug Retail 4.7 Pharmaceuticals 4.1 Automobile Manufacturers 4.0 IT Consulting & Other Services 3.9 Industrial Conglomerates 3.7 Multi-Utilities 3.6 Utilities Sector 3.4 Electronic Equipment & Instruments 3.2 Health Care Supplies 2.6 Electric Utilities 2.2 Water Utilities 2.1 Office REITs 1.0 Household Appliances 0.6 Electronic Components 0.3 Electronic Manufacturing Services -0.9 Industrial REITs -0.9 Retail REITs -1.0 Specialized REITs -2.1 Real Estate sector -2.3 Speciality Stores -3.4 Research & Consulting Services -5.2 Motorcycle Manufacturers -6.0 Residential REITs -7.0 Housewares & Specialities -7.1 Health Care REITs Leisure Products Alternative Carriers -17.4

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