SDG Progress Assessment (in Asia-Pacific region)

Transcription

1 Data that leaves no one behind: Expert consultations August 2017, Bangkok SDG Progress Assessment (in Asia-Pacific region) Arman Bidarbakhtnia Statistician, UNESCAP Content 1. Methods for regional SDG progress assessment a) Setting regional Target values b) Measuring progress 2. ESCAP SDG Snapshot and dashboard 2 1

2 Need to specify. How far have we progressed? How much unfinished work is left? How far will be from here? How much acceleration is needed? Need to specify. How far have we progressed? How much unfinished work is left? How far will be from here? How much acceleration is needed? Since 2000 Until 2015 Compared to Target value By 2030 By 2030 To reach Target value 2

3 Challenges.. Lack of data for 2015 Predicted values for 2030 Lack of SDGs target values Since 2000 Until 2015 By 2030 To reach Target value Ingredients Data for 2000 Target values Predictions for 2015 & 2030 Measurement methods 3

4 Predictions for 2015 & 2030 Applied a weighted regression model for extrapolation More recent data, greater weights Target values 51 Specific target value 96 Clear direction 22 Not specified? Distribution of SDG targets by specificity of target values Setting regional targets: Champion area Guiding Principles Data efficiency: optimum use of scarce data Objectivity: facilitate objective policy evaluation over time Feasibility: aspirational, but at the same time, realistic, given available resources. 4

5 Setting regional targets: Champion area Guiding Principles Data efficiency optimum use of scarce data Objectivity facilitate objective policy evaluation over time Feasibility aspirational, but realistic Setting regional targets: Champion area Step1 select one major indicator under target Step2 Step3 Step4 Create champion area (top five countries in terms of rate of change) Estimate average rate of change among top performers apply average rate to the baseline value (2015) to reach target value for

6 Setting regional targets: Champion area Setting regional targets: Champion area Example: Intentional homicide/per 100,000 population Macao, china Singapore French Polynesia Samoa Tonga Average annual rate of change (r) Regional target value= (1+r) 15 I base Champion area 6

7 Setting regional targets: Champion area Exceptions: Sufficient data are not available to estimate the rate of change Many countries started from a very low level and have made significant progress (e g. internet users) Alternative approach: latest available indicator value instead of rate of change Measures for tracking progress Baseline status (takes into account previous progress) Progress made since 2000 in relation to the progress needed by 2030 Anticipated progress Assuming the same pace of progress, how close we can get to the target by the end of 2030? 7

8 Progress assessment: baseline status Step1- Normalize at the scale of 0 to Step 2- Average over indicators under each goal 0 10 Or 0 Asia-Pacific SDG Snapshot: baseline status 8

9 Progress assessment: anticipated progress

10 References: Asia and the Pacific SDG Baseline Report Bidarbakhtnia. A. (2017): A weighted extrapolation method for measuring the SDGs progress, ESCAP working paper series SD/WP/04/March Bidarbakhtnia. A. (2017): Tracking progress towards the SDGs: measuring the otherwise ambiguous progress, ESCAP working paper series SD/WP/05/May

11 THANK YOU! 11