Lecture 1. Decision Making and Decision Theory

Transcription

1 References

2 Lecture 1 Decision Making and Decision Theory

3 Policy resistance DPSIR John D Sterman, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking for a Complex World, Irwin/McGraw-Hill (2000) ISBN X The European Environmental Agency, brochure/brochure_reason.html Decision Theory Herbert Simon, The New Science of Management Decision, (see also: Multi-attribute Value Theory R. Keeney and H. Raiffa, "Decisions with Multiple Objectives", John Wiley & Sons, IMA-PIP R. Soncini-Sessa, MODSS per decisioni integrate e partecipate, McGraw-Hill, Milano, 2004

4 Lecture 2 Modelling Environmental Systems

5 Systems Thinking, Conceptual Modelling and Casual Loop Diagrams Sterman s book (see previous reference) Modelling Environmental Systems Ralf Seppelt, Computer-Based Environmental Management, Wiley-VCH, New York, Weinheim, 2003, 304 Pages Systems Theory George Klir, Facets of Systems Science, Plenum Pub Corp., 1991, ISBN: X Model paradigms (mechanistic, empirical, etc.) Chapter 4 of Soncini-Sessa s book

6 Lecture 3 The role of Operations Research

7 Introduction to Operations Research for Environmental problems: C.S. ReVelle, E. Whitlatch, J. Wright, Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering, Prentice-Hall, 1996 (1st edition) Metaheuristics the Methaheuristic Network: Genetic Algorithms: David Goldberg, Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization, and Machine Learning, Addison-Wesley Pub Co; (January 1, 1989), ISBN: Simulated Annealing: S. Kirkpatrick, C. D. Gelatt, Jr., M.P. Vecchi, Optimization by Simulated Annealing, Science, Number 4598, 13 May 1983 Ant Colony Systems: Eric Bonabeau, Marco Dorigo, Guy Theraulaz, Swarm Intelligence, Oxford University Press, 1999 Marco Dorigo s home page:

8 Lecture 4 The role of Artificial Intelligence

9 History of AI Machine Learning Tom Mitchell, Machine Learning, McGraw-Hill, 1997, 414 pages. ISBN Artificial Neural Networks: Introduction to Neural Networks, Data Mining Software: Knowledge Representation Marvin Minsky, The Society of Mind, New York: Simon and Schuster, The Semantic Web: Rule-based systems Expert Systems: Turban, Efraim, and Jr. Louis E. Frenzel Expert Systems and Applied Artificial Intelligence. New York: Maxwell Macmillan International.

10 Case-based reasoning Schank, R., & Abelson, R. (Eds.) (1977). Scripts, Plans, Goals and Understanding. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Schank, R. (Ed.) (1982). Dynamic Memory: A Theory of Learning in Computers and People. New York: Cambridge University Press. Riesbeck, C.K., and Schank, R. (1989). Inside Case-Based Reasoning. Northvale, NJ: Erlbaum. Kolodner, J.L. (1993). Case-based reasoning. Morgan Kaufmann, Calif., US. Leake, David B Case-Based Reasoning: Expriences, Lessons, & Future Directions. Menlo Park, California: AAAI Press.

11 Lecture 5 Decision Support Systems and Environmental Decision Support Systems

12 Decision Support Systems Ralph H. Sprague, Jr., Eric D. Carlson, Building Effective Decision Support Systems, Prentice Hall, 1982, ISBN: DSS resources: Environmental DSS Giorgio Guariso, Hannes Werthner, Environmental Decision Support Systems, John Wiley & Sons, 1989, ISBN: Ulises Cortès, Miquel Sànchez i Marrè, Luigi Ceccaroni, Ignasi R-Roda, Manel Poch, Artificial Intelligence and Environmental Decision Support Systems, Applied Intelligence, 13(1), 2000 A.E. Rizzoli and W.Y. Young, "Delivering environmental decision support systems: Software tools and techniques," Environmental Modelling and Software, vol. 12, no. 23, pp , 1997

13 Integrated Modelling Environments SME: IMA: ICMS: TIME: productdetails?productid= OpenMI: Simile: