FINDING AND USING STATISTICS IN DEVELOPMENT

Transcription

1 FINDING AND USING STATISTICS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WEDC - Oct. 30, 2012

2 Many Uses of Data in Economic Development 1. Marketing 2. Community/Investor Profiles 3. Performance Measurement 4. Project tanalysis 5. Communicating with Stakeholders

3 Basic Data Sources 1. Statistics Canada Census Community Profiles pd/prof/index.cfm?lang=e d f Highlight Tables, by release eng.cfm Topic-based Tabulations, by release 2. BC Stats Statistics by Subject p (this is BC Stats homepage see Statistics by Subject heading at top of screen)

4 Economic Impact tanalysis

5 What is Economic Impact? Changes in economic outputs in response to some new input Typical outputs: Employment Output Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Tax revenue (Federal, Provincial, Local) Sometimes wage income

6 Economic Impacts Cheat Sheet Direct (Initial Shock) Indirect (Suppliers) Induced (Personal spending)

7 BC Input-Output p Model BC Version of StatsCan Model BC recipes for industries Imports/Exports from BC perspective Three Ways You Might Use It 1. Provincial Economic Multipliers report 2. Local Area Economic Dependencies report 3. Custom use of BCIOM through BC Stats

8 1. Provincial Economic Multipliers

9 Interpreting Provincial Multipliers Employment (Jobs/$M) = Jobs per $1 million in direct output These multipliers can be found: f031-40ba-975d- 4b3acbbb2360/2004BritishColumbiaProvincialEc onomicmultipliersandhowtousethem.pdf p

10 Example: Crop and Animal Prod. Top line in table above is Crop and Animal Production Assume new orders for $10 million in product (This is Direct Output) Employment multiplier: Direct (9.16) + Indirect (4.96) + NSN Induced (2.86) = Total employment = 10 x (16.98) = 170 jobs 92 direct 50 indirect 17 induced Very Important: These are total BC Impacts, not Local

11 2. Local Area Economic Dependencies

12 Local Area Dependencies Can be calculated only for Census years (and maybe never again) Provides LOCAL employment multipliers for 63 areas Local multipliers vary based on: Use of local suppliers of goods and services Average incomes higher-income industries have higher local induced impacts

13 First Steps 1. Identify the direct impact (same as before) 2. Determine the direct employment impact You may know this easily You can calculate it using provincial multipliers

14 Interpreting Local Area Employment Ratios Agriculture Example We earlier calculated 92 direct jobs. (Need to verify it s reasonable these are all local.is all of the $10 million in sales produced locally?) Total local jobs: 92 direct x 1.30 multiplier = 120 total local jobs These multipliers can be found: b9d3a76a/BCLocalAreaEconomicDependencies2006.pdf

15 Performance Measurement

16 Possible desired outcomes Financial return (ROI) usually a minor consideration Employment Quality of employment Investment Tax base Income Education and skills Number of visitors, visitor spending, occupancy rates Number of businesses, new businesses, expanding businesses Floorspace growth, land absorption, amount and type of development Area revitalization (e.g., downtown, harbour) Exporting Value-added production Customer & stakeholder satisfaction Community reputation, awareness Link to other, non-economic goals (environmental sustainability, social objectives)

17 Different Types of Measurements 1. Inputs (into ED programs) 2. Outputs (of ED programs) 3. Outcomes (impacts on broader economy) All can be useful, depending on circumstance

18 1. Inputs (into ED Programs) Distribute promotional magazine Identified 50 target companies for BRE interviews Host 4 educational seminars for business Expanded local communications more tweets, newsletters, website updates, etc.

19 2. Outputs (of ED Programs) Inquiries from magazine ad 46 completed interviews 52 businesspeople attended seminars More website views, more local media o e ebs te e s, o e oca ed a requests

20 3. Outcomes (Impacts on Economy) Investments, jobs, tax base, floorspace, etc. 7 troubled companies retained, X jobs saved, $Y in new investment assisted Better business decisions? Or enhanced education itself as a desired outcome Higher stakeholder satisfaction (through anonymous survey)

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22 Practical considerations 1. Start t with objectives, goals, strategies t 2. Inputs & Outputs relatively easy to measure 3. Outcomes very difficult to measure Broad economic statistics typically not useful for measuring EDO performance 4. Have a regular schedule at least annual 5. Think about tracking BEFORE projects start 6. Performance measurement has costs Incorporate tracking into program design Use information already being tracked 7. Communicate the results

23 Extending Performance Measurement to Local Economy 1. Uses broad economic statistics 2. Much greater insight through benchmarking

24 Don t Just Collect Data, Compare Data

25 Ucluelet Benchmark Group 15-community comparison group Population between 1,000 and 5,000 Not part of metro area or Census Agglomeration (mini-metro metro area like Courtenay) Located on Vancouver Island OR mainland Located on Vancouver Island OR mainland coast OR BC resort municipality

26 Comparison Group 1. Ucluelet 9. Golden 2. Tofino 3. Port Hardy 4. Port McNeill 5. Gold River 6. Lake Cowichan 7. Gibsons 8. Fernie 10. Invermere 11. Radium Hot Springs 12. Valemount 13. Rossland 14. Osoyoosoos 15. Harrison Hot Springs

27 Median Age of the Population, 2006 (Source: Statistics Canada Census)

28 Uses of benchmarking 1. For competitive purposes We are #1 in BC among. 2. For insight into local economy Identify unexpected strengths and weaknesses 3. Use information to inform strategies & initiatives 4. Raises profile of economic development (people love comparing their community!)

29 Generate Your Own Data 1. Simple tracking Inquiries, sales calls, website hits, jobs created 2. Surveys (online, cheap) Q: Last year, did your sales/employment jobs increase or decrease or stay flat Q: Coming year, anticipate sales/employment increasing, decreasing, flat Q: What is top economic development issue? 3. BRE Results Top issues, planned expansions, number of companies expanding, etc. Under-utilized data sources: Municipalities can better use their data Business licence data woefully under-used BC Assessment data Development data?

30 Group Discussion Questions Topic #1 Employment Impacts 1. Your community attracts a new 50-employee resort and 20-employee custom lumber manufacturer. How many additional local jobs are created? Which has a larger impact? 2. A local l food manufacturer sees a $5 million increase in annual sales. What is the local employment impact? Topic #2 Performance Measurement 1. Your community creates a new social media marketing strategy. How do you measure its performance? (Think Inputs, Outputs, Outcomes)

31 Contact Info Jamie Vann Struth th Twitter: JamieVannStruth