Arke Ltd. MOSAIC (Modular Open System Architectures Integrated Cost model)

Transcription

1 Arke Ltd MOSAIC (Modular Open System Architectures Integrated Cost model)

2 Open Systems: Background Open Systems: Wider Viewpoint OSA Framework and MOSAIC Introduction MOSAIC usage context MOSAIC Walkthrough Contents Open Systems What? Open Systems Why? Policy Push Open Systems Assessment Framework and MOSAIC: The Requirement Open Systems Stakeholders for OSA assessment framework Not a silver bullet Earlier is better Challenges to developing an OSA assessment framework Example OSA benefits and disadvantages An OSA Assessment Framework MOSAIC Introduction and the link with the OSA Framework Who and What for? MOSAIC uses and example projects MOSAIC features and limitations Inputs Outputs Case Studies Land Open Systems Architecture (GVA) Benefits and Disadvantages summary Maritime Open Systems Architecture Benefits and Disadvantages summary Final Notes Summary and next steps Discussion / Questions / Suggestions

3 Open Systems What? An Open system is one that implements sufficient open specifications or standards for interfaces, services and supporting formats, to enable properly engineered components to be ported with minimal changes across a wide range of systems from one or more suppliers. System of Systems Approach Community Forum Working Group 1 Open Systems and Architectures. A System whose major components and interface specifications adhere to specific, freely-available standards (although such standards may have a price tag associated with them). AOF Openness is defined as the use of published and freely available standards to define software and hardware interfaces, in order to allow a common approach to be taken. An open standard has no barriers to implementation by a third party. Open standards facilitate rapid replacement and upgrade of equipment as required Generic Vehicle Architecture (GVA) Defence Standard 23-09

4 Open Systems Why? National Security Through Technology: Technology, Equipment and Support for UK Defence and Security (Whitepaper) Open systems enable us to join together and use equipment that was made in different times and places, thus creating more scope for upgrading and easing interoperability with new capabilities. Further, they allow the use and replacement of high-volume generic components within systems, opening up opportunities for off the-shelf components

5 OSA / MOSAIC Recent work The Dstl sponsored requirement To support decision makers in making the financial case for (or against) the acquisition of capability based on open and modular principles, DSTL required the following: Research into the potential cost benefits and disadvantages of associated with OSA systems; An OSA framework (common and consistent approach); An OSA Cost Model. The task was placed through the competed Expeditionary Logistics Support (ELS) contract.

6 OSA / MOSAIC Stakeholders Consulted Type 26 Project Team. Wanting to avoid being the proving/de-risking project for OSA systems. MCS Project Team: Interested in understanding baseline and its relation to options. Land Equipment Operating Centre (GVA): Interested in assessing an existing OSA system deployed on UOR vehicle and its implications in future. Dstl: Interested in identifying ways of exploiting OSA research within wider MoD, single version of the truth a go-to source of cost information. Cost Assurance and Analysis Services (CAAS): Interested in the voracity of data, the technical complexity and challenge of assessing OSA systems. BAE Systems Maritime Naval Ships: Wanting to consider how the maintenance and implementation of standards outside of industry control would affect internal processes.

7 Open Systems Not a silver bullet A means to an end, not an end in itself Set the desired outcomes and benefits required first (updateability, reconfigurability, etc.) rather than pursuing openness for the sake of it. Spectrum of openness Not an on/off switch Everything is a degree of open or closed, where and how openness is implemented will affect benefits / disadvantages (including cost). Openness / Modularity Modularity as a system design, openness usually related to system connectivity (interfaces, standards, specifications). New standards to be specified need to be carefully considered to ensure good system design. Commercial Openness - Need to prevent a closed market Without effective competition many of the benefits of OSA can evaporate. Ownership of IPR and system complexity can be inhibitors here. Beware of the development of new proprietary standards reducing competition.

8 Open Systems Earlier is Better OSA Considered at the URD/SRD level of specific system on specific platform This offers a view of the benefits/disadvantages of using OSA, but provides a disconnected picture at the system of systems level. This can lead to OSA benefits not being fully maximised and disadvantages not being understood. OSA Considered at the capability level across systems and platforms provides a better chance of maximising any benefits and mitigating disadvantages

9 Assessing Open Systems Challenges Organisational Challenges Acquisition policy, Treasury Guidance, Budgetary Advocacy, Scrutiny Buy-In, Industry Buy-In. Technical Challenges Complexity Cost to MoD, Pan DLoD & Industry; Uncertainty (Modularity / Openness); Map OSA benefits/disadvantages to CBS (CADMID); Technology Insertion Update/Upgrade, Planned/Unplanned; Maintaining Openness: through life and as part of technology insertion. Implementation and Application Challenges Model Usability, User Pre-Requisites, SME support

10 Open Systems Example Benefits / Disadvantages CONCEPT ASSESSMENT DEMONSTRATION MANUFACTURE B E N E F I T S IN- SERVICE DISPOSAL Early Risk Reduction Through TDP/Trials due to less complex integration Greater Component Availability Less long lead items required Simpler Integration Due to agreed open standards Increased Learner effect Shared components across systems and platforms increases learner effect D I S A D V A N T A G E S Shared Training Same training can be repeated across systems / platforms Reduced Quantity Less spares held as components easier to obtain: less to dispose of at end of life Agreement on standards Stakeholder buy-in to cross system/platform standards may take longer. Increased supplier base More competition means longer downs select.. Extra Security Measures Use of COTS may increase security vulnerability as interfaces are well known outside MoD Sub Optimal Architecture Common enabling systems may not be optimised for specific systems / platforms COTS Update Cycle Market driven COTS may increase frequency of updates Sell-on If the system has no enhanced features it is less likely to be sold on

11 An OSA Assessment Framework Open systems are a complicated topic and a general framework is needed to assess any OSA options in the context of both financial implications and system benefits/disadvantages. This diagram to the right summarises a framework through which such an assessment can be carried Step 2: Define Baseline Option Step 4: Produce Baseline Forecast Step 1: Objective Identification and Setting Ensure Consistency Step 6: Capture Risks Step 3: Define OSA Options Step 5: Produce Option Forecasts out. OSA Potential Benefits and Disadvantages Step 7: Analysis and Assessment

12 MOSAIC Introduction Risk Assessment OSA Benefits & Disadvantages EPP + ESP Monte Carlo Simulation Baseline + 3 options JSP507 Compliant CADMID DLODs

13 MOSAIC and the OSA Framework

14 MOSAIC Who / What for? Anyone who needs to assess the financial impact and benefits/disadvantages of a range of procurement options where Open System Architectures may be involved in part of any of the options. MOSAIC is specifically designed for: Options Comparison Pre-Concept and high level WLC assessment Investment Appraisals Business Case Support Strategic Studies COEIA Support In this context MOSAIC should be useful to: CAAS Project teams Front Line Commands DSTL Industry

15 MOSAIC Uses and Example Projects Obsolescence Management during a programme (MCCS Study) Deal with obsolescence within current programmes through the development of a full WLC estimate identifying components to be replaced (as in MCCS study). Alternatively use incremental support CBS lines (min/major updates) with ISS delivery/management lines to model periodic/continuous obsolescence management. Pan-Service Programmes (T26 CMS) Scale and complexity of T26 CMS study demonstrated the ability to attribute across multiple budget holders then isolate and report results for specific teams or at cost to MoD level. System of System Programmes MOSAIC is able to marshal and aggregate multiple project cost assessments to show the total financial outcome. Ensure like for like basis of input cost assessments. Beware double/under accounting. Lower Category programmes (Pre-Concept, CAT C, D etc.) Provides Level 1 (Headline) and Level 2 (Detailed) CBS to assist both rapid WLC with limited information or detailed assessment of individual items.

16 MOSAIC Limitations MOSAIC is not a parametric model. The model will not automatically apply metrics across the estimates. The model requires a user who is a knowledgeable and experienced WLC practitioner. To realise the benefits sought by UK MoD, a careful and tailored approach is required in programmes to both the systems architecting and (concurrently) the commercial context. A generic, formulaic open systems/open architectures approach is neither feasible nor desirable. - SOSA Community Forum Working Group 1 OSA. Assessment of Open Architectures within Defence Procurement.

17 MOSAIC Features System Definition Compare a baseline and up to 3 options Record OSA benefits/disadvantages per CBS line Customisable Work Breakdown Structure Define system fit/isd, quantity and life Cost Attribution Use default CBS or user defined 2 Tier CBS: rapid WLC / detailed assessment Flexible and customisable cost profiling Setup financial and economic conditions Correlation Budget holders: who pays and how much? Three point estimates & key assumptions Estimate maturity Sanction estimates against the MoD CRBS Year-on-Year cash profiling Risk register Pre and post mitigation Outputs By EPP/ESP, CADMID phase, with/without risk Calculate and display outputs: constant cost, present value and outturns. Breakeven chart Cost drivers by system Calculate and show Equivalent Annual Cost Monte-Carlo simulation Outputs analysis: 5 th - 95 th percentile results Cumulative Density function S-curve Probability density function Sensitivity analysis

18 MOSAIC Inputs: Globals Step 1 Objective Identification And Setting

19 MOSAIC Inputs: CDAL Step 1 Objective Identification And Setting

20 MOSAIC Inputs: Baseline Step 2 Define Baseline Step 4 Produce Baseline Forecast

21 MOSAIC Inputs: Options Options Step 3 Define OSA Options Step 5 Produce Option Forecasts Step 6 OSA Benefits / Disadvantages System Definition List the work breakdown structure for use in estimating the option. This screen is the same as the system definition page in the Baseline section of the model. PASE This screen is the same as the system definition page in the Baseline section of the model. Estimate This screen has the same features as the estimate page in the Baseline section of the model plus a benefits/disbenefits section to describe any applicable OSA benefits/disadvantage s for a particular item in a given option

22 MOSAIC Inputs: Risk Step 6 Capture Risks

23 MOSAIC Outputs: OSA Benefits / Disadvantages Step 6 OSA Benefits / Disadvantages

24 MOSAIC Outputs: Part 1 Step 7 Analysis and Assessment

25 MOSAIC Outputs: Part 2 Step 7 Analysis and Assessment

26 MOSAIC Outputs: Part 3 Step 7 Analysis and Assessment

27 Summary The Open Systems Architecture (OSA) assessment framework and MOSAIC provide a method for assessing open systems that: - Provides a consistent process for data input and processing; - Assists in the identification and selection of applicable OSA benefits and disadvantages and provides a method to link them to lifecycle phases; - Produces a set of management outputs consistent with organisational policy (Business Case Submission / Investment Appraisals guidance and rules). By using MOSAIC and the OSA assessment framework, the user can put together a strong, auditable and evidence based case for why a given option has been selected or recommended.

28 General Discussion and Questions Suggestions?