Skills Forecasting in Ireland

Transcription

1 Skills Forecasting in Ireland Can the data tell a useful story? Prepared for: Mutual Learning Programme Dublin, 13 th June 2016

2 INTRODUCTION This presentation The context for skills forecasting in Ireland Institutional landscape and key characteristics of the Ireland model Occupational employment and skills forecast The National Skills Database Impact to date and in future Success factors, constraints and transferability 2

3 CONTEXT A renewed post-crisis focus on skills demand and supply The recovery: Rising employment from 2012 to 2015 Reform of public services Declining labour market participation Young, highly-qualified labour force Evidence-based approach return on investment Focus on labour market relevance of employment support and training High levels of emigration Emerging skills shortages (ICT, science, engineering) Identified growth sectors 3

4 INSTITUTIONAL LANDSCAPE & KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODEL Key characteristics of the Ireland approach A finely-grained level of occupational disaggregation Over 130 occupations at the most detailed level Sometimes analysed and reported as 17 higher-level occupational families with shared skill sets An integrated approach to occupational forecasting and the capture and presentation of related data The National Skills Database compiles and makes publicly-accessible a wide range of skills related data by occupation The close connection between the work of skills anticipation research and the mechanisms for informing policy Expert Group on Future Skills Needs - advises Government on skills needs and labour market issues; key lever for tackling mismatches identified by data and research. Skills and Labour Market Unit (SLMRU) In-house facility for skills monitoring and analysis 4

5 OCCUPATIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS PROJECTIONS From sector forecasts to occupational and educational projections ESRI macroeconomic forecast (HERMES-13) ESRI Medium-Term Review sector forecast SLMRU occupational forecast SLMRU educational projections National income and expenditure data External environment: NiGEM global econometric model 11 sectors Recovery scenario Constrained credit scenario Zombie EU scenario Additional competitive manufacturing scenario 133 occupational categories Sector by occupation matrices Log-linear extrapolation 17 occupational families 4 ISCED categories Illustrative extrapolation 5

6 NATIONAL SKILLS DATABASE The holistic picture of supply and demand Employment data Vacancy data Job and redundancy announcements Jobseeker data Employment permit data Graduate destination data Data on education and training provision and participation QNHS (Central Statistics Office) PES data (Department of Social Protection) Job adverts (The Irish Times and IrishJobs.ie) Annual recruitment agency survey (SLMRU) Irish Development Agency Department of Social Protection Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation Higher Education Authority Higher Education Authority Department of Education and Skills Quality and Qualifications Ireland SOLAS 6

7 REFLECTIONS ON THE IRELAND APPROACH (1) Results and future plans Impacts: Providing accessible data and intelligence Dissemination channels Packaging and presentation Influencing policy design Shift in public policy focus Informing re-skilling and employment programmes (Momentum; Springboard+) Future plans: New occupational forecast in 2016 New structures to support employer dialogue and gain employer intelligence National Skills Council Regional Skills Fora 7

8 REFLECTIONS ON THE IRELAND APPROACH (2) Success factors, constraints and transferability Success factors Time spent to develop and refine the model Organisational continuity to build analytical capacity Relationship building to support data access Focus on occupations as the main unit of analysis and key to data matching Constraints Varying data quality Data granularity Key requirements for transferability Macroeconomic forecasts provide a starting point Central resource for data access, handling and analysis 8

9 Thank You

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