IDENTIFICATION OF SKILLS NEEDS IN IRELAND; THE CONTRIBUTION OF MUTUAL LEARNING

Transcription

1 IDENTIFICATION OF SKILLS NEEDS IN IRELAND; THE CONTRIBUTION OF MUTUAL LEARNING John McGrath, Labour Market Economist, Skills and Labour Market Research Unit (SLMRU) (Irish Further Education and Training Authority) and Expert Group on Future Skills Needs 9 th December 2016

2 THE IDEAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM Database of all possible professions or occupations A course calendar showing when, where and how these skills are delivered The skills required by employers to work in these professions An index of the employability associated with each profession

3 LEARNING FROM OUR PEERS Acquired substantial knowledge and insights from our peers Both from formal mutual learning workshops and informal peer gatherings Have not taken on-board everything which is implemented in other Member States Adopted those that were appropriate for our labour market and for our limited resources

4 LEARNING FROM OUR PEERS Surveys the Labour Balance Model Denmark (very detailed occupation codes definition of shortages) Surveys the Annual Skills Needs Survey Sweden (involvement of PES in the fieldwork) Austrian Skills Barometer (use of social security data) Croatian PES (use of salary data for approximating professional status) Finland; CEDEFOP, University of Milan (use of data mining to produce competency profiles) Germany (use of regional labour market profiles) Denmark (major data warehousing system based on unique ID) Denmark, Austria, Germany for web-based dissemination methods

5 LEARNING FROM OUR PEERS Decided not to engage in annual in-depth surveys Due primarily to resource constraints Instead adopted major data warehousing approach Integrating all data relevant to skills demand and supply which is collected by public agencies At lowest level of disaggregation As soon as it is collected Kept primary research to a minimum Only twice yearly survey of recruitment agencies to detect emerging skill requirements that cannot be identified through warehousing system

6 WE INTEGRATE THE DATA THE SKILLS AND LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH Since 2002

7 SKILLS AND LABOUR MARKET RESEARCH UNIT: NATIONAL SKILLS DATABASE Award 2008 Since 2003 National Skills Databas e

8 FURTHER REFINEMENTS REFLECTING INSIGHTS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES Sought and obtained unique identifiers from LFS data in 2012 Created powerful analyses of transitions at occupation level Allows us to measure replacement demand and identify churn And measure the volume of additional jobs (Expansion + replacement)-churn Measure the volume of vacancies by occupation which create additional jobs Important for PES for return on investment in ALMP s

9 144, ,000 LABOUR MARKET TRANSITIONS 2015 Unemployment 81, ,000 Employment Intraoccupational 166,000 Interoccupational 100, , ,000 Inactivity Source: SLMRU analysis of CSO data

10 REPLACEMENT AND CHURN: LABOUR MARKET TRANSITIONS Unemployment Employment Inactivity

11 DEMAND COMPONENTS AND CHURN Source: SLMRU

12 LINKING RESEARCH WITH POLICY + > < + Replacement demand Expansion demand Shortage Surplus Graduate supply Job seekers

13 MORE RECENT REFINEMENTS Creating model for the systematic evaluation of outcomes from ALMP s (Austria; Germany; Croatia; many European PES) Just completed database to carry all details of all participants on further education and training course (PLSS) Conducted pilot evaluation based on integrating four major databases; social insurance database; unemployment benefits database; ALMP participant databases; education enrolment databases requires agreement on data protection protocols with different departments and agencies

14 MORE RECENT REFINEMENTS Creating model for the systematic web-scraping of vacancies (Finland; CEDEFOP; University of Milan) To identify the changing competences associated with different occupations Using text analyses for key words and frequency tables Seeking permission of directors of large vacancy companies In return for profiling their companies Project is at pilot stage

15 OTHER SYSTEM FEATURES Created centralised high level expert group incorporating supply side ministries and demand-side ministries Expert Group on Future Skills Needs meets quarterly Adopted web-based skills dissemination systems (European Skills Barometers; Austria; Denmark) Developed new regional based skills structure (Germany etc.)

16 WE INTEGRATE THE PEOPLE THE EXPERT GROUP ON FUTURE SKILLS NEEDS

17 RECENTLY ADDED REGIONAL DIMENSION CONSISTING OF LOCAL EMPLOYERS AND LOCAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROVIDERS Dublin South- East Midlands North East Expert group on Future Skills needs South- West North West Mid East Mid West West

18 WE DISSEMINATE THE RESULTS

19 WE DISSEMINATE THE RESULTS

20 EXAMPLES OF POLICY DECISIONS Problem: Not enough young people studying STEM disciplines Policy decision: Double points for entry to university for those that pass applied mathematics Problem: Many unemployed and many skill shortages. Policy decision: Offer a place on a third level course to unemployed who can keep unemployment payments if they study for a qualification in short supply (i.e. springboard)

21 EXAMPLES OF OUTPUTS National Skills Bulletin 2016 Monitoring Ireland s Skills Supply 2015 Vacancy Overview 2015 Regional Labour Markets Bulletin 2016 Occupational Employment Projections

22 CONTACT DETAILS John McGrath Senior Research Officer, and Expert Group on Future Skills Needs Tel Relevant reports: National Skills Bulletin 2016 Monitoring Ireland s Skills Supply 2015 Occupational Employment Projections 2020 Regional Labour Markets Bulletin 2016 Vacancy Overview