Big sets of modelling data available from preparedness phase in emergency context: use in different contexts to support countermeasure strategies
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1 Big sets of modelling data available from preparedness phase in emergency context: use in different contexts to support countermeasure strategies F. Gering, T. Hamburger Federal Office for Radiation Protection BfS Germany ALLIANCE-NERIS Workshop 28th-29th March; BfS, Munich, Germany 1
2 Outline Hazard assessment for emergency planning based on modelling results Concept Practical implementation Analysis of the results (some examples) Support for countermeasure strategies 2
3 Hazard assessment as basis for emergency planning List of scenarios 0. Unclear situation 1. NPP accident in Germany 2. NPP accident in neighbouring countries 3. NPP accident within Europe Source terms (for planning) Radiological consequence assessment 4. NPP accident outside Europe 5. Accident in a nuclear facility Dirty Bomb 6. Terroristic attack 7. Transport accident 8. Radiological emergency situations 9. Satellite crash 3
4 Hazard assessment as basis for emergency planning List of scenarios 8 Selection of release sites x 1-5 Selection of source terms x 2-6 Selection of weather data x 365 RODOS Simulations Parameter for statistical analysis of results x 12 Grid points x 8056 Values 1E+9 4
5 Hazard assessment site selection 1. NPP accident in Germany 2. NPP accident in neighbouring countries 5. Accident in a nuclear facility 7. Transport accident Research reactor 3. NPP accident within Europe 870 Olkiluoto Grohnde Borssele 170 Flamanville Philippsburg Temelin 1360 Saporoshje Leibstadt Alamaraz 4. NPP accident outside Europe Belojarsk 2940 Surry
6 Hazard assessment source terms (for severe NPP accidents) INES 5 INES Figure 6 3: Plant INES status 7and associated releases INES rating 0 I II III Plant Status 0, PetaBecquerel I 131 -eq Source Terms (examples) 6
7 Hazard assessment weather data / RODOS simulations For 365 days of a year: 7
8 Hazard assessment analysis of results Resulting doses: Exposure pathways: Monitoring data: 8
9 (msv) Results of hazard assessment: doses to the public 0. Unclear situation 1. NPP accident in Germany 2. 1E+5 1E+4 1E+3 1E+2 1E+1 1E+0 1E-1 1E-2 Eff. dose, infant, inhalation + external exposure over 7 days NPP Grohnde - FKA, FKF, FKI FKA FKA Alle 1 FKA 10 FKA 20 FKA 100 FKA 500 FKF Alle FKF 1 P10-P50 FKF 10 FKF 20 FKF 100 P50-P90 FKF 500 FKI Alle FKI 1 FKI 10 FKI 20 FKI 100 FKI 500 9
10 Hazard assessment analysis of results Resulting doses: Exposure pathways: Monitoring data: Exceedance of dose criteria for protective actions: Maximum distance RODOS Beispielgrafik Affected sectors RODOS Beispielgrafik Affected area Affected persons 10
11 Results of hazard assessment: protective actions 0. Unclear situation 1. NPP accident in Germany 2. Maximum distance for protective actions, source term FKA Dose / contamination criteria 1000 msv bone marow dose (infants) 100 msv eff. dose in 7d (infants) 10 msv eff. dose in 7d (infants) 50 msv thyroid dose in 7 d (infants) 2000 Bq/kg iodine in leafy vegetables Protective action Maximum distance () in which intervention level is exceeded (median) (Priority evacuation) 0.8 Evacuation 15 Sheltering 100 ITB (children) 180 Food ban >800 11
12 Results of hazard assessment: protective actions 5. Accident in a nuclear facility Dose / contamination criteria 1000 msv bone marow dose (infants) 100 msv eff. dose in 7d (infants) 10 msv eff. dose in 7d (infants) 50 msv thyroid dose in 7 d (infants) 2000 Bq/kg iodine in leafy vegetables Maximum distance for protective actions, Research reactor Protective action Maximum distance () in which intervention level is exceeded (median) (Priority evacuation) 0 Evacuation 0.7 Sheltering 4 ITB (children) 9 Food ban
13 Visualization and further analysis of data Relative frequency of exceedance of dose criteria (cartesian coordinates, site KKP, source term FKA, protective action sheltering ) 13
14 Visualization and further analysis of data Relative frequency of exceedance of dose criteria (polar coordinates (log scale), site KKP, source term FKA, protective action sheltering ) 14
15 Support countermeasure strategies: Emergency planning zones for NPPs (before 2014) Emergency planning zones: <100 : ITB for children and pregnant women <25 : ITB for all persons < 45 years <10 : Evacuation, Sheltering 15
16 Emergency planning zones for NPPs (since 2014) Territory of Germany: ITB for children and pregnant women Emergency planning zones: <100 : ITB for all persons < 45 years, sheltering <20 : Evacuation, Sheltering <5 : Evacuation (priority), Sheltering 16
17 Results of hazard assessment (2016) 0. Unclear situation 1. NPP accident in Germany 2. NPP accident in neighbouring countries 3. NPP accident within Europe 4. NPP accident outside Europe 5. Accident in a nuclear facility 6. Terroristic attack 7. Transport accident 8. Radiological emergency situations 9. Satellite crash 17
18 Thank you 18
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