Feedback Models of System Transition

Transcription

1 Feedback Models of System Transition Prof. R. John Hansman (in collaboration with, Aleksandra Mozdzanowska, Prof Annalisa Weigel, and Dr. Karen Marais) MIT International Center for Air Transportation

2 National Air Transportation System (NAS) Example of a complex adaptive system evolved over 70 years

3 Global Air Transportation System (GAS) Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz

4 Global Air Transportation System (GAS) Multiple Interacting Subsystems Regional and Global Evolution Dynamics, Phasing, Harmonization Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz

5 Simple Feedback Model of System Adaptation Disturbances Performance # Operations Throughput RPM, RTM Flight Hours # Airports Implementation System Capability Selected Change Process Corrective Awarness Aviation Community Loop Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Safety & Capacity Drivers Elements Technologies Procedures Policies Time Constants (long) Awareness Change Process Implementation

6 Transition Barriers 24/7 Operating System Competing Objectives Reversion to the Status Quo Labor Concerns Safety Considerations Off Nominal Conditions Drive System Acceptability Certification Human-Automation Trades Safety Veto Technical Maturity (TRL X) Equipage Critical Mass Resource Limitations Operating vs Modernization Investments Competing National Objectives

7 Predictive, Reactive, Catalytic Transitions Safety vs Capacity Drivers Disturbances Performance Precipitating Change Event or Condition Implementation System Capability Monitoring & Forecasting Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness

8 Event Driven Transitions Safety Transition Examples Grand Canyon (1955) > Positive Radar Control Los Cerritos (1986) > TCAS Source: Boeing Statistical Abstract

9 Capacity Driven Transitions eg LGA 2000

10 Increasing System Capacity vs Management Management Management Fast Implementation 2001 Delays > LGA Management 2004 Delays > ORD Management Performance Precipitating Event or Condition System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness

11 Role of Research and Development to Provide Capability Options Management Performance Precipitating Event or Condition System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness Capability Options Technologies Infrastructure Procedures Roles & Respons. Policies Research and Development

12 Role of Transformative System Concepts Management Performance Precipitating Event or Condition System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness Capabilities Road Map Innovation Research and Development Research Needs System Concepts

13 Role of Transformative System Concepts Stepwise Transitions and Configuration Control Management Performance Precipitating Event or Condition System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness Capabilities Road Map Innovation Research and Development Research Needs System Concepts

14 Transition Barriers 24/7 Operating System Competing Objectives Reversion to the Status Quo Labor Concerns Safety Considerations Off Nominal Conditions Drive System Acceptability Certification Human-Automation Trades Safety Veto Technical Maturity (TRL X) Equipage Critical Mass Resource Limitations Operating vs Modernization Investments Competing National Objectives

15 Multi- Considerations Performance System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Objectives O i Values V i Decisions Decisions i Optimization Decisions Monitoring & Forecasting Awareness or Perception A i Capabilities Road Map Research and Development Research Needs System Concepts

16 Value Distribution How are costs and benefits distributed between stakeholders? stk 1 stk 2 stk n stk 1 stk 2 stk n b 1 (t) c 1 (t) b 2 (t) c 2 (t) b m (t) c m (t) Benefits Costs Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation

17 Time-phased Value Distribution Costs and Benefits Σc i (t) Reduce the gap Σb i (t) time Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation

18 Critical Mass for User Equipage Service Provider Benefits User Equipped A/C (%) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation

19 Incentivization or Leveraging Approaches Technology Value Positive Incentives Mandates Punitive Measures Infrastructure and Technology Development Support Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation

20 Early Benefit Incentivization eg Airspace Access, RVSM User Benefits Equipped A/C (%) Adapted from: (Dr. Karen Marais & Prof. Annalisa Weigel (MIT) Encouraging and Ensuring Successful Technology Transition in Civil Aviation

21 Resource Issues System Maintenance and Operation Performance System Capability Available Resources Implementation System Improvement Monitoring & Prediction Competing National Concerns Selected Change Process Awareness Capability Development Research and Development Capabilities

22 Aviation community responsible for adaptive change. We must also anticipate catalytic events and be prepared when the public awareness force transformative change. Management Performance Precipitating Event or Condition System Capability Aggregate Inefficiency Metrics Implementation Monitoring & Forecasting Media Selected Change Process Corrective Transformative Awarness Aviation Community Loop Public Pressure Loop Public Awareness Capabilities Road Map Innovation Research and Development Research Needs System Concepts

23 Must collaborate and consider the Global Air Transportation System in System Transitions Traffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitz