Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services

Transcription

1 Concept Disposal In-service Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services Assessment Demonstration Manufacture Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services Delivering essential, independent, expert services to Defence Acquisition OSCAM Presentation to April 2011 SCAF Workshop Dr Stephen Curram and Dale Shermon 1 0. Agenda 1. What is OSCAM? 2. What is System Dynamics? 3. OSCAM Development 4. Using OSCAM 5. Applications of OSCAM 6. Key Success factors JSF engine configuration mock-up 2 1

2 1. Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services In-Service - Change response during the life of the solution Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services In-service by managing the on-going configuration of requirements, including safety and environmental advice and support, and evaluating change options, including cost and risk analysis 3 1. In-Service Cost and Risk Analysis 4 2

3 1. In-Service Cost and Risk Analysis 5 1. OSCAM the Operating and Support Cost Analysis Model Joint UK/US program to develop a family of tools used for analysis of equipment in-service support costs The UK Suite of Models: OSCAM Ship OSCAM Shipboard System OSCAM Land The US Suite of Models: OSCAM Ship v8.0 OSCAM Air v3.0 OSCAM EFV OSCAM USAF OSCAM JSF OSCAM Shipboard System v7.0 Land ADGE Ship & System NCCA MOD The OSCAM models are built using System Dynamics Theory MOD FASH EFV MOD Air MOD DRPM EFV NCCA / NAVAIR USAF C-17 SPO Ship v8 JSF NCCA JSFPO 6 3

4 2. What is System Dynamics? System Dynamics models the relationships, behaviors, and influences of entities in the system being studied The OSCAM models use System Dynamics to model each month of the life cycle of the platform This provides a more powerful technique than traditional methods like Excel based models System Dynamics promotes an understanding of O&S processes, O&S costs, and the interdependencies that exist + EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY OIL IN GROUND COST OF PRODUCTION & EXPLORATION Example: Drivers for oil production + INVESTMENT IN EXPLORATION & NEW OIL WELLS OIL PRODUCTION PROFITS + OIL PRICE 7 3. OSCAM Development Influence diagrams developed in a workshop environment using customer subject matter experts to ensure that the real world is modelled 8 4

5 3. OSCAM Development Influence diagrams interpreted into software code for example PowerSim Scheduled Base maintenance SB1_Scheduled_Actions_per_1000hrs SB1_Consumables_cost_per_action Total_Cum_sched_Consumables_Cost Aircraft_in_op_env LC1_Harshness_Scheduled_Factor scheduled_harshness_factor harshness_impact_on_aircraft Total_Flying_rate onem Out_Ann_Sched_maint_cons_Cost Cum_sched_Consumables_Cost Rate_incur_sched_cunsumables_cost rte_clr_sched_consumables_cost Rate_sched_actions_baseline Aircraft_Average_Age Sched_base_Labor_hours_per_month scheduled_age_factor SB1_labor_hours_per_action SB1_age_related_Scheduled_action_factor number_unsched_actions_arising Rate_sched_base_maint_actions SB1_percentage_unsched_actions_arising LC1_Aircraft_Lifetime scheduled_cats_traps_factor SB1_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost_per_year Total_Cum_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost LC1_CatsTraps1000 SB1_cats_traps_Scheduled_action_factor Average_cat_traps onem Rate_Incur_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost Rate_Clr_Supp_Equip_Maint_Cost Out_Ann_Support_Equip_Maint_Cost Cum_Supp_Equip_Maint_Costs cat_traps_aircraft_per_1000fh Quantity_of_systems_in_service Aircraft_in_op_env Demand_Aircraft_in_op_env 9 3. Typical Structure of an OSCAM Model OPERATIONS TRAINING Fuel Ordnance PERSONNEL Crew Supplies Publications Crew Other Unit Level Personnel Purchased Services Other Unit Level Personnel Class PROGRAM PROFILE Introduction Lifecycle Disposal O/I MAINTENANCE DEPOT MAINTENANCE INDIRECT OTHER O-Level Scheduled Unscheduled Installation Support Software Maintenance I-Level Continuous Maintenance Other Indirect Personnel ETS Aging 10 5

6 11 Deployment of equipment over the life cycle within different categories 12 6

7 Population of parameters with deviation from default data set identified 13 Comprehensive help system to aid learning and accelerate deployment of model including details of influence diagrams 14 7

8 Ability to consider complex influences including obsolescence effects 15 Unique compiled simulation software to accelerate analysis 16 8

9 Cost Breakdown structure for all cost and noncost results through life Graphical representation of the results for ease of interpretation 17 Sensitivity analysis of selected input parameters with defaults values for the change 18 9

10 Graphical representation of sensitivity analysis 19 Uncertainty analysis of selected input parameters with defaults minimum and maximum values 20 10

11 S-curve graphical representation of uncertainty analysis How is OSCAM different? Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In-service Disposal OSCAM models are a time based simulation which makes it more powerful than Excel based models OSCAM can discretely model depot maintenance periods and account for Obsolescence, for example, because of the time based approach Model openness OSCAM is not a black box model OSCAM users have complete insight into the equations and relationships that are used via the built-in help functions and model structure document The model facilitates understanding of O&S processes, O&S costs, and the interdependencies that exist SD Conference 2011 UNCLASS DIST A 22 11

12 4. How is OSCAM different? Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In-service Disposal Powerful user interface Easy handling of scenario data with audit trail Powerful analytical tools for comparing results and performing uncertainty analysis Interactive influence diagrams provide insight of relationships and structure in the model Historical databases For US users VAMOSC based historical datasets are provided with the OSCAM Ship, OSCAM Sys, and OSCAM Air models. Historical datasets are prepared for most platforms in the VAMOSC database Supports a team approach OSCAM encourages a team approach; it can be used throughout the life cycle by logisticians, cost analysts, engineers, etc., because the results offer both cost and non-cost outputs SD Conference 2011 UNCLASS DIST A Applications of OSCAM Concept Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In-service Disposal Source Selection Analysis of Alternatives Milestone Estimates Breakeven Analysis Budgeting Parametric Cost Tool (PCT) Data Management Tool (DMT) Contract Usage SD Conference 2011 UNCLASS DIST A 24 12

13 5. Breakeven Analysis Example Model: OSCAM Ship A study required the breakeven point between two options to be determined based on a changing cost per barrel of fuel Advantage of Using OSCAM: Since OSCAM results show expected expenditures year by year, it was easy to use this information, coupled with the acquisition information to find year where option A became cheaper than option B for the fuel price in the baseline estimate Once the baseline was established, re-running the simulation for multiple fuel prices to see the impact on the breakeven point took only seconds to complete SD Conference 2011 UNCLASS DIST A OSCAM Applications Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) O&S Estimates The JSF Program Office validated OSCAM as the official O&S tool to support cost estimates for the production, sustainment and follow-on development of aircraft. OSCAM provides a common baseline for reconciliation purposes. It is a way of sharing and understanding costs, with partner-specific estimates. Cost estimators from each partner country are currently being trained in the use of OSCAM JSF. Source selection Dry Cargo Ship A Cargo ship program office mandated that OSCAM form the basis for its O&S estimate and each of the bidder s O&S estimates. OSCAM was used to develop and maintain the program office s cost estimate, validate each of the cost proposals, compare proposals and to perform sensitivity analysis. OSCAM provided an extremely rapid method for the source selection team to analyze the proposals 26 13

14 6. Key Success Factors OSCAM is in widespread use across the US Navy for O&S cost analysis. Key reasons for this are: OSCAM provides a common structure for developing cost estimates that conforms with DoD policies and allows for easy handover between analysts OSCAM provides flexibility in the level of detail used, allowing the detail of the analysis to grow as the program matures OSCAM is designed to work with the data that is routinely collected by the US Navy, providing the analyst with a wealth of actual and analogous data OSCAM is designed to reflect the approach used by cost analysts and provides them with enough information to support and defend their estimates The user interface allows the system dynamics model to be used without being an expert in system dynamics and has a wealth of analytical tools SD Conference 2011 UNCLASS DIST A 27 Concept Disposal In-service Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services Assessment Demonstration Manufacture Defence Acquisition Lifecycle Services Delivering essential, independent, expert services to Defence Acquisition 28 14