Technology Maturity Cost Benefit Forecasting. Presented by Mark Jones Industrial PhD Research Engineer

Transcription

1 Technology Maturity Cost Benefit Forecasting Presented by Mark Jones Industrial PhD Research Engineer

2 Mark Jones (MEng Hons) IMechE WhSch Industrial PhD Researcher working in collaboration with Cranfield University and Airbus Based within Airbus, Filton Research currently being implemented within Airbus Research and Technology Further collaborations include: The University of Arizona Rolls Royce Plc Bath University

3 Total Life Cycle Cost R & D Investment O & S Disposal Research Concentration

4

5

6 NASAs Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)

7 Rolls Royce s Manufacturing Capability Readiness Levels (MCRLs)

8

9 Both Rolls Royce and Airbus hand Manufacturing Technologies over to their Operation/Manufacturing divisions post Maturity Gate 6 Manufacturing technologies do not make a return on investment prior to entering Maturity Gate 7 NRC

10 Benefit Forecast NRC Forecast Benefit Forecast

11 (max-min) quadrant (Max-max) quadrant Benefit Forecast (min-min) quadrant (min-max) quadrant Total Development Effort - Parametric

12 Development Effort (Cost) = (Size) * Cost Drivers Development Effort (Resources) = (Size) * Effort Multipliers

13 Development Effort (Resources) = A * Size B * EM Where: Development Effort is in Person Months A is a constant derived from historical project data Size is a measure of the process functionality B is an exponent for the diseconomy of scale EM is an effort multiplier

14 Development Effort Cost = A * Size * CD Where: Prototype Cost is in A is a constant derived from historical project data Size is a measure of the process working envelope CD is a Cost Multiplier

15 Each of the Size, Cost and Effort factors for both the Resource and Cost Model were captured using the Delphi Technique The Delphi Wideband Technique is currently being carried out within various Aerospace Manufacturing sectors to apply the required weightings The weightings will then be validated using historical data and expert opinion

16 We are here

17 Application Functional Size Easy Nominal Difficult # Parts for Manufacture # Test Pieces/Development Units # Process steps # Demonstrations/trails #Datums Scale Drivers # Technology Interdependencies

18 Cost Drivers Weighting Or Enter Data Development Team Factors Development Process/Pack Experience Application Experience (yrs) Process Experience (yrs) Requirements Understanding Supplier Network Availability and Capability Stakeholder Team Cohesion Demonstration & Application Factors Test Process Requirements Process Capability Requirements Current Process Capability Manufacturing Technology Complexity Degree of Process Novelty Qualification and Verification Time Project Factors Documentation of Requirements Required Development Schedule Location of Trials Multisite Development Product Factors Required Rate Product Complexity

19 Size of Process Width Height Length Working Envelope Size Facilities Footprint Cost Drivers Weighting Or Enter Data Demonstration & Application Complexity Factors Geometric Accuracy Requirements Facility Requirements Material Complexity Degree of Process Novelty Process Capability Requirements Test Process Requirements Current Process Capability Metrology Requirements # Test Pieces/Development Units # Demonstrations/Trails Qualification and Verification requirements Process Complexity Product Factors Required Rate Product Complexity

20 PRED(30) Development Effort PRED(25) PRED(20) Size

21 (max-min) quadrant (Max-max) quadrant Benefit Forecast (min-min) quadrant (min-max) quadrant Total Development Effort

22 Example of Uncertainty in Forecasting a Technology

23 Uncertainty Distributions Forecast Technology Impact Metrics Baseline Minimum Most Likely Maximum Metric weighting K Factor 1 0 K Factor 2 0 K Factor 3 0 K Factor 4 0 K Factor 5 0 K Factor 6 0 K Factor 7 0 K Factor 8 0 K Factor 9 0 K Factor 10 0 K Factor 11 0 K Factor 12 0 Cpk = Cp (1- (B - M)) (Min - Max) / 2)

24 NRC Limit (max-min) quadrant (Max-max) quadrant Performance Enhancement Application Performance Threshold (min-min) quadrant (min-max) quadrant Total R&T Development Effort (NRC)

25 Future will focus on implementing the discussed Cost Benefit Toolset within Airbus R&T Data for further validation is also being collected from Rolls Royce Plc using their MCRL development data Interested in furthering outside each of the discussed organisations

26 At the start of the research process NOT a Cost Engineer Special thanks to SCAF and it s members Paul Baguley introduced in January 2011 Since joining I have met some extraordinary and generous individuals, whom without, this journey would have been unsuccessful Rapid leaning curve significantly speeded up Confidence for research provided Very warm community SCAF has been the main contribution hub for my extensive networking Advice for future PhD s Networking = Vital!

27 Questions? Mark Jones