Providing a Highway System with Reliable Travel Times

Transcription

1 F-SHRP Web Document 3 (NCHRP Project 20-58[3]): Contractor s Final Report Providing a Highway System with Reliable Travel Times Study 3 Reliability Prepared for: Future Strategic Highway Research Program Submitted by: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Knoxville, TN Texas Transportation Institute College Station, TX University of Washington Seattle, WA Dowling Associates Oakland, CA September 2003

2 ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and it was conducted in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies. DISCLAIMER The opinion and conclusions expressed or implied in the report are those of the research agency. They are not necessarily those of the TRB, the National Research Council, AASHTO, or the U.S. Government. This report has not been edited by TRB.

3 The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board s mission is to promote innovation and progress in transportation through research. In an objective and interdisciplinary setting, the Board facilitates the sharing of information on transportation practice and policy by researchers and practitioners; stimulates research and offers research management services that promote technical excellence; provides expert advice on transportation policy and programs; and disseminates research results broadly and encourages their implementation. The Board's varied activities annually engage more than 4,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation.

4 Table of Contents NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities PREFACE A. SUMMARY... 5 B. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM. 7 B-1. Definition of Travel Time Reliability. 7 B-2: Sources of Unreliable Travel Times (Travel Time Variability).. 8 C. APPROACH.. 10 C-1: The Research Team.. 10 C-2: Approach to Developing the Research Plan D. OBJECTIVES AND DESIRED OUTCOMES D-1: Major Research Objectives. 13 D-2: Goals of the Reliability Research Program.. 14 D-3: Monitoring Progress Toward Goals. 17 D-4: Research Strategy: Expected Benefits/Payoffs of Treating Unreliable Travel Times.. 17 D-5: Types of Research Products.. 19 E. OVERVIEW OF RELATED WORK.. 21 E-1: Introduction. 21 E-2: Traffic Incident Management and Institutional Issues. 21 E-3: Data and Analytic Methods.. 22 E-4: Traveler Information E-5: Work Zones. 24 E-6: Weather 25 E-7: The Surface Transportation Security and Reliability Information System Model Deployment. 26 F. RELIABILITY RESEARCH PLAN 28 F-1: Overview of Research Plan.. 28 F-2: Research Project Definitions 33 F-3: Prioritization of Reliability Research Reports 82 1

5 Table of Contents (Continued) NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities G. MANAGEMENT OF THE RESEARCH 85 G-1: Basis of Cost Estimates 85 G-2: Contracting Requirements.. 85 G-3: Coordination with Other F-SHRP Areas.. 89 H. IMPLEMENTATION H-1: Expected Research Products.. 91 H-2: Implementation Procedures I. SCHEDULE AND BUDGET. 97 J. RESEARCH PROJECTS NOT INCLUDED IN F-SHRP K. REFERENCES APPENDIX: CHARACTERIZATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY

6 W PREFACE Improving Travel Time Reliability Developing and Applying Solutions to Improve Your Trip hat Is Travel Time Reliability? When you want to know how long it will take to get to work, a meeting or your child s recital you would like a predictable and consistent travel time. When the assembly line has to shut down because the replacement part or the key component is stuck behind an accident in a traffic jam, you feel the pain of unreliable travel times. T ravel Time Reliability Goal Research included in this Program will improve travel conditions to a standard of by the year Ninety percent of the time you will know your travel time within 10 percent of the actual time. The work required to get to by 2010 is significant, but achievable. It builds on a combination of proven techniques and innovative research ideas. W hat Does Reliable Travel Time Mean To Travelers And Businesses? Predictable travel times mean fewer early or late arrivals, improved personnel and equipment efficiency and reduced frustration. Several types of manufacturing processes have been altered to take advantage of more efficient scheduling and communication methods. Products and partially manufactured goods are stored in the trucks and trains that move freight from the end of one assembly line to the beginning of another, arriving just-in-time to be installed. Slowdowns or stoppages in this chain of events cost businesses and workers time and money. H ow Will Travel Time Predictions be Communicated? Before you leave you check the website, your personal digital assistant or your cell phone to see what conditions are. You get information on route or travel mode options, and make a decision to leave based on historic trends and current information. During the trip you are alerted to changes in conditions and route alternatives. And on arrival, you are less stressed and ready to begin work or play. W hat Will it take to Improve Reliability? Just as there are many causes of travel time problems, the solutions are also varied. Some of the solutions are construction or operational changes such as more aggressively removing collisions or stalled vehicles or coordinating signals to move traffic more efficiently. These changes will, in turn, benefit from improvements in construction and maintenance practices that reduce disruption from roadwork. Other solutions will be the result of improved communication about weather, special events, and other unexpected slowdowns. 3

7 H ow can the research sponsored by the F-SHRP Program help? The F-SHRP Reliability Research Program has been crafted to address the root causes of unreliable travel times. These causes include such things as traffic incidents, adverse weather, work zones, and special events. Only recently has the transportation profession come to grips with these barriers to efficient operation of the highway system, and our experience with how to deal with them is limited. The Reliability Research Program is specifically designed to address the gaps in our knowledge about these events and how to handle them. By concentrating research resources over the six-year lifespan of F-SHRP, significant gains can be made in effectively dealing with these causes of unreliable travel times. 4

8 A. SUMMARY NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Traffic congestion is a growing problem for the transportation system. The need for a reliable transportation system is seen every day. It is apparent that the morning and evening rush hours could be termed the stop-and-go several hours in most large cities. The problem is evident when business travelers have to allow an extra 15 to 30 minutes of travel time to go to a meeting in the middle of the day because they cannot rely on free-flow conditions. Freight transporters who avoid the peak period or allow more time or dedicate more vehicles to accomplish similar tasks as previous years also feel the effect. Travel time unreliability is the direct result of the variable and often unpredictable events that occur in the highway environment. Not only is the congestion experienced by travelers on an average day growing, but the impacts of several traffic events cause congestion to vary substantially from day-to-day. These events include incidents, adverse weather, work zones, special events, fluctuations in daily travel demand, and poorly coordinated traffic signals. The congestion caused by unreliable transportation events is roughly as large as the congestion caused by insufficient highway capacity. Traditionally, the focus of the highway program both in terms of improvements and monitoring of conditions has been concentrated on adding physical capacity, such as building more lanes and improving interchanges and intersections. Within the past decade, increasing emphasis has been placed on Transportation Operations strategies geared to optimizing the performance of the existing infrastructure rather than major physical expansions. Most of what is embodied by Transportation Operations can be traced to addressing the causes and impacts of unreliable events, as discussed above. Therefore, improving the practice of Transportation Operations is a major outcome of this research plan. The Reliability Research Plan outlined in this report will lead to reduction in congestion and an improvement in the ability of commuters, shippers, and travelers to predict their trip time and reduce the amount of variation in their expected travel time. By treating unreliable transportation events, there is a double benefit: not only do travel times become more reliable (that is, less variable and more predictable), but the total amount of congestion experienced by travelers will decrease. The improved transportation system can provide faster travel speeds for people and goods, decrease the variation in travel time from day-to-day, and produce better information about conditions and the alternative routes and modes available to travelers. Reducing reliability-related delay also improves safety and reduces fuel consumption and shortterm emissions. A significant number of crashes in urban areas are secondary in nature they are caused by the unexpected congestion and driver distraction ( rubbernecking ) produced by an earlier (primary) crash. Therefore, strategies that reduce the duration of the primary crash also reduce the likelihood that a secondary crash will occur. Delay reductions also lead to reduced fuel consumption and vehicular emissions, at least in the short-term. The Reliability Research Plan builds on current practice and research activities to move Transportation Operations to the next level. There are a variety of tools that are currently used to address the problem in some cities. The holes in the reliability solution set, however, are that no 5

9 city uses all of the best practices identified in the knowledge base, and many other improvement ideas lack the data, policy, or analytical support to make a compelling case for change. This research plan addresses these shortcomings in areas such as technology, working relationships, procedures, or operating policies. The activities in the Reliability Research Plan are based on a comprehensive assessment of the needs of transportation professionals engaged in Operations. There is a need for a clear message, clear explanation of the objectives of the research plan, and a research program targeted at important issues and achievable solutions. To take the great step forward envisioned by the Future SHRP Executive Committee requires innovative ideas to interest and excite funding agencies and researchers alike, as well as a practical orientation that answers the need for responsible and effective use of public funding. This research plan includes an aggressive search for new technologies and working relationships that can lead to quicker incident scene clearance that reduces delay and decreases the potential for additional crashes. There will be research to develop safer, more rapid and more efficient operating strategies for agencies, first responders, and a variety of other groups associated with roadway information and operation. The research needs also point to improvements in institutional relationships and operating practices that are already used in some locations, but not widely applied for a variety of reasons. The Reliability Research Plan produces a variety of near-term and intermediate-term products. In addition there are numerical goals, measurable outcomes, process improvement suggestions, and outreach efforts that will continue to reduce congestion and variations in travel time after the research plan itself are completed. 6

10 B. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM B-1: Definition of Travel Time Reliability By its very nature, roadway performance is at the same time consistent and repetitive and yet highly variable and unpredictable. It is consistent and repetitive, in that peak usage periods occur regularly and can be predicted with a high degree of reliability. (The relative size and timing of rush hour is well known in most communities.) At the same time, it is highly variable and unpredictable, in that on any given day, unusual circumstances such as crashes can dramatically change the performance of the roadway, affecting both travel speeds and volumes. The traveling public experiences these large performance swings, and their expectation or fear of unreliable traffic conditions affects both their view of roadway performance, and how and when they choose to travel. For example, if a road is known to have highly variable traffic conditions, a traveler using that road to catch an airplane, routinely leaves lots of extra time to get to the airport. In other words, the reliability of this traveler s trip is directly related to the variability in the performance of the route she or he takes. Reliability and variability in transportation are being discussed for a variety of reasons. The two terms are related, but different in their focus, how they are measured, and how they are communicated: Reliability is commonly used in reference to the level of consistency in transportation service. Variability might be thought of as the amount of inconsistency in operating conditions. These concepts are both useful, but the term reliability may have a more marketable connotation for measurement purposes because it relates to an outcome of transportation the quality of the service provided. Variability might be defined as the amount of change in a phenomenon. The traveling public and a variety of companies or product sectors use the term reliability in their goal statements and it would seem this is the term that should be used with a performance measure. Measures can be developed to relate the reliability/variability concept to average measures of mobility (i.e., measures that capture average conditions such as average delay, average speed, etc.) and to identify differences in performance by time-of-day, assessing the methods to measure reliability for long and short trips, different trip purposes, trip locations, etc. With this discussion in mind, from a practical standpoint, travel time reliability can be defined in terms of how travel times vary over time (e.g., hour-to-hour, day-to-day). This concept of variability can be extended to any other travel time-based metrics such as average speeds and delay. For the purpose of this study, travel time variability and reliability are used interchangeably. 7

11 B-2: Sources of Unreliable Travel Times (Travel Time Variability) The traditional way of measuring and reporting travel times experienced by highway users is to consider only average or typical conditions. However, the travel times experienced by users are never constant, even for travel on the same facility in the same time period. Travel time variability is due to changes in several underlying conditions present in the roadway environment that vary over time: 1. Traffic Incidents are events that disrupt the normal flow of traffic, usually by physical impedance in the travel lanes. Events such as vehicular crashes, breakdowns, and debris in travel lanes are the most common form of incidents. In addition to blocking travel lanes physically, events that occur on the shoulder or roadside can also influence traffic flow by distracting drivers, leading to changes in driver behavior and ultimately to the quality of traffic flow. 2. Work Zones are construction activities on the roadway that result in physical changes to the highway environment. These changes include a reduction in the number or width of travel lanes, lane shifts, lane diversions, reduction, or elimination of shoulders, and even temporary roadway closures. Delays caused by work zones have been cited by travelers as one of the most frustrating conditions they encounter on trips. 3. Weather environmental conditions can lead to changes in driver behavior that affect traffic flow. Due to reduced visibility, drivers will usually lower their speeds and increase their headways when precipitation, bright sunlight on the horizon, fog, or smoke are present. Wet, snowy, or icy roadway surface conditions will also lead to the same effect even after precipitation has ended. 4. Fluctuations in Demand day-to-day variability in demand leads to some days with higher traffic volumes than others. Varying demand volumes superimposed on a system with fixed capacity results in variable in travel times. 5. Special Events are a special case of demand fluctuations whereby traffic flow in the vicinity of the event will be radically different from typical patterns. 6. Traffic Control Devices intermittent disruption of traffic flow by control devices such as railroad grade crossings, drawbridges, and poorly timed signals also contribute to travel time variability. 7. Inadequate Base Capacity by itself, the physical capacity of the roadway does not contribute to travel time variability. However, the interaction of capacity with the six other sources of variability (above) does have an effect on variability. This is due to nonlinear nature of the relationship between delay, volume, and capacity: when saturation levels are approached, small changes in volume or capacity lead to large changes in delay. Further, facilities with greater base capacity are less vulnerable to disruptions: an incident that blocks a single lane has a greater impact on a highway with two travel lanes than a highway with three travel lanes. Identifying these contributing factors is a valuable step in establishing the Research Plan because they indicate the root causes of travel time variability. Ideally, knowledge of the relative importance of the contributing factors would indicate which areas have the highest potential payoff. 8

12 However, the profession s understanding of how these factors contribute to travel time variability is embryonic at best. Recent work conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory 1 provides an assessment of the relative contribution of the factors, although it must be viewed as a first step in this direction because of the indirect methods used to quantify each factor (Figure B.1). That is, there is still a great deal of uncertainty in decomposing delay into its component sources; due to a lack of measured data on the subject, modeling efforts must be used instead. Even with these limitations, a few broad statements may be made based on the information in Figure B.1: The contribution of non-recurrent delay to total delay is substantial. Most of the seven factors affecting travel time variability are classified as non-recurrent. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing travel time variability will also have the effect of reducing total delay. This is an extremely valuable point to be made crafting and promoting the Research Plan. Traffic incidents, weather, and work zones are the major components of non-recurrent delay. Regardless of their relative size, it is clear that these three sources dominate the picture. Figure B.1. Comparison of ORNL and TTI Delay Estimates Total Delay (Million Veh-Hrs) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Signal Timing Weather Work Zones Breakdowns Crashes ORNL Recurring Non-recurring TTI 1 Chin, S.M., Franzese, O., Greene, D.L., Hwang, H.L. and Gibson, R., Temporary Loss of Capacity Study (Draft Final Report), Prepared for Office of Operations Technology Services, Operations Core Business Unit, U. S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, November 1,

13 C. APPROACH C-1: The Research Team The Research Team was led by Co-Principal Investigators: Dr. Richard Margiotta of Cambridge Systematics and Dr. Tim Lomax of the Texas Transportation Institute. Together with Mark Hallenbeck of the University of Washington and Dr. Richard Dowling of Dowling Associates, they formed the core team developing the Research Plan. Other staff from Cambridge Systematics and the Texas Transportation Institute also contributed to the Plan, including Lance Grenzeback, Dan Krechmer, Shawn Turner, Gerald Ullman, Cesar Quiroga, and Carol Walters. C-2: Approach to Developing the Research Plan Chronology The project was initiated with a Panel meeting immediately following the National Conference on Traffic Incident Management held on March 11-13, 2002 in Irvine, California. The proceedings of the Conference were used as a major input to Reliability Research Plan. Following guidance provided at the first Panel meeting, the Research Team developed a white paper defining the travel time reliability problem (Characterization of Travel Time Reliability; included as the Appendix). Research goals for the Reliability Research Plan were also first stated in this white paper. This white paper also included a list of high-level research topics around which individual project statements could be developed. Based on Panel comments to the white paper, the Research Team developed the first draft of the Research Plan on September 13, A second Panel meeting was held on November 4-5, As a result of the comments received at the meeting, the second version of the Research Plan was developed (dated November 15, 2002). Outreach Activities No formal outreach activities were conducted beyond the input of the Panel. However, Research Team members presented the project in technical sessions at several professional meetings including: Institute of Transportation Engineers Annual Meeting ITS World Congress UCLA/Caltrans Conference on Tackling Traffic Congestion FHWA Infrastructure Research Conference in Chicago AASHTO Systems Operations and Management Subcommittee meeting San Antonio 10

14 In addition, the Research Team sought the advice of several FHWA staff, especially with regard to coordinating the F-SHRP research with proposed Federal research plans. Framework for Project Definitions The basic approach taken by the Research Team in developing the Plan was to build broad topic areas around addressing the seven sources of travel time reliability. Once these topics were defined, individual project statements were developed under each topic. Because there is substantial overlap in strategies to address the seven sources, the topic areas do not match one-toone to the sources of unreliable travel times. Table C.1 shows how the topic areas track to the sources. In developing the Research Plan, the Team oriented most of the research toward projects dealing with transportation operations ( Operations ) and the interface of Operations and the physical infrastructure. There is a growing interest in Operations in the transportation community as a way to manage existing highways more effectively, as opposed to constructing new capacity (wider highways or highways on new alignment). With regard to the Reliability Research Plan, Operational strategies are ideally suited to addressing the seven sources of unreliable travel times (e.g., traffic incident management programs). As defined in the project statements, Operations include both transportation agencies and nontransportation agencies that cooperate in developing response strategies to events that cause unreliable travel times (e.g., traffic incidents, and weather). Thus, many of the projects have scopes that deal outside of the traditional transportation realm. The Research Team also felt it was important to emphasize the implementation of the research results in practice. To accommodate implementation, many of the project scopes include mechanisms for promoting implementation directly. In general, these mechanisms include: Demonstrations and field tests of the research results; Software development built around research findings; and Training and outreach programs. The individual project scopes and Section H provide more detail on implementation issues and methods. 11

15 Table C.1. Research Topic Areas Mapped to Source of Unreliable Travel Times Source of Unreliable Travel Times Unplanned Planned Systemic Day-to-Day Traffic Work Special Demand Control Research Topic Area Incidents Weather Zones Events Fluctuations Devices 3.1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times 3.2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability 3.3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations 3.4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response 3.5: Incorporating Weather Information into Traveler Information and Agency Operation Functions 3.6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Bottlenecks 3.7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions 3.8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability 3.9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss Inadequate Base Capacity Primary Impacts Secondary Impacts 12

16 D. OBJECTIVES AND DESIRED OUTCOMES D-1: Major Research Objectives The major objective of the Reliability portion of F-SHRP is to greatly improve the reliability of highway travel times by reducing the frequency and effects of events that cause travel times to vary from day to day. This objective is tied to the overall goal summarized as 90/10 by We believe the research program outlined here and the actions of local, state, and national agencies can result in travelers and shippers knowing their travel time within a 10 percent window on 9 out of 10 trips by The improvements will include a range of elements that include reducing the number of crashes, reducing the slowdowns associated with traffic incidents, improving the driver response to weather conditions, decreasing the time to perform construction and maintenance on the roads, reducing the congestion and reliability effects of special events, improving the reliability of traffic control devices, expanding and improving the information available to travelers so that they can make more informed decisions, and implementing improved roadway system designs that get the maximum productivity out of the available roadway. The improvements are represented by the seven potential sources of unreliable travel times (i.e., events that cause variable travel times) identified in the Reliability Research Program: traffic incidents; work zones; weather; demand fluctuations; special events; traffic control devices; and inadequate base capacity. The Reliability Research Program targets the variation in travel times that frustrating characteristic of the transportation system that means you must allow an hour to make a trip that normally takes 30 minutes. Not only is reliability an important component for travelers and freight shippers, it is also a piece of the congestion problem where transportation agencies can make significant gains even as travel demand grows. The seven unreliability sources account for approximately half of the total delay. If we could implement the improved practices, policies, operating strategies and communication mechanisms envisioned to come out of the Research Program this year, we could reduce the reliability-related delay 2 by 40 to 50 percent. And looking into the future, travel delay would not grow as rapidly because several of the growth factors have been reduced or contained. 2 Reliability-related delay is the total of delay caused by the seven sources of unreliable times. 13

17 Reducing reliability-related delay will also result in fewer crashes, reduced vehicle emissions and fuel use and other benefits. These benefits will come from a mix of leading edge research into new technology and practices, as well as a focus on reducing institutional barriers and improving communication mechanisms so that our existing knowledge can be more fully exploited. D-2: Goals of the Reliability Research Program Introduction The goals of the Reliability Research Program are built around the sources of travel time variability. For the most part they track directly to the seven sources, but several goals are overlapping in nature. For example, shifts in travel demand and improvements in driver reactions to adverse situations and traveler information will affect all of the seven sources. A component of the reliability effects is uncertainty improvements in communication can reduce the frustration levels of travelers even in serious cases where large delays occur. The goals have been expressed in terms of quantifiable targets that will serve the Program s major research objective. Although the objective of the program is primarily to reduce reliability-related delay, the goals have been expressed in terms that are easier to track and will have more meaning to the personnel who will be responsible for accomplishing the goal (e.g., traffic incident duration). It will be easier to track the elements that generate each delay component rather than the delay attributable to each component. Further, many agencies and companies have experienced the phenomenon of what you measure is what you get ; the goals are the way to tie actions to outcomes. Figure D.1 shows the linkage between the specific goals and reliability-related delay. For instance, reductions in the duration of traffic incidents, work zones, and weather events lead directly to reductions in reliability-related delay. Traffic Incident Duration Goal 1: Reduce the total duration of all traffic incidents (from initial detection through final clearance) by 25 percent. Goal 2: Reduce the time to clear a crash scene by 30 percent and clear all traffic incidents on the National Highway System in less than 90 minutes. Of all the sources of travel time variability, traffic incidents are seen as the area with largest potential payoff. Clearly, traffic crashes and breakdowns are key causes of increased travel times. Severe traffic crashes fatal crashes, hazardous material spills, etc. comprise a smaller portion of total incidents, but their effects on travel time and traffic flow are greater than that of breakdowns because: 1) they tend to block more lanes, last longer and provide more serious driver distractions, and 2) they require significant coordination between personnel from several agencies and much greater effort and equipment deployment to accomplish. Strategies for identifying and clearing crashes and breakdowns quickly and safely are developed in the Research Plan. Strategies developed in the Research Plan include those that emphasize more aggressive and effective scene management as well as more rapid detection, verification and dispatch. 14

18 Figure D.1 Goals, Actions, and Outcomes of the Reliability Research Program Reliability Research: Goals Reliability Research: Actions Reliability Research: Outcomes Traffic Incident Duration Reduction Work Zone Duration Reduction Weather Effect Reduction Demand Shifts Improved Knowledge Base Improved Mitigation Strategies Better Understanding of Conditions, Performance, and Effects Reliability-Related Delay Reduction Improvements in Travel Time Reliability Other Benefits Emissions Reductions Fuel Use Reductions Traffic Control Improvements Physical Infrastructure Improvements Reduce Secondary Crashes Caused By: Congestion Unexpected Queues Driver Distraction Driver Behavior Improvements Work Zone Duration Goal 3: Reduce the total duration of work zones by 25 percent. Achievement of this goal relies strongly on cooperation with the Renewal area of the F-SHRP program. Accordingly, the Reliability Research Program does not extensively address the duration of work zones, but rather mitigating the impacts of existing work zones through improved scene management, traffic control, and communication. The efforts would attempt to ensure that travelers do not encounter an unexpected work zone, and that work zones provide for efficient traffic handling. 15

19 Weather Effect Duration Goal 4: Reduce the duration of roadway effects caused by weather events by 25 percent. Little can be done to change actual weather events (snow, ice, flooding), but much can be done to reduce the time that weather events affect roadways and drivers and the unexpected nature of some events. Improved methods for predicting micro- and macro-scale weather events and incorporating this information into agency operations will cause agencies to change the way they communicate with travelers, conduct business and improve their planning for and response to weather-related events. Shifts in Demand and Travel Patterns Goal 5: Reduce traffic exposed to congestion, especially that caused by unpredictable events, by 10 percent. Communicating system conditions to travelers allows them to change routes, modes, departure times, and even trip destinations. The Program will also examine how to help system users anticipate and respond to recurrent and non-recurrent congestion by providing relevant, easy-tounderstand information in a timely fashion through effective communications and media. The impact of this information on travel choices will be assessed as will the resulting impact on system operation. Improved communication tools and techniques will result in better customer service. Physical Infrastructure Improvements Goal 6: Increase the throughput of incident scenes and work zones by 10 percent through the use of advanced geometric design procedures. Incident response and work zone activities are often restricted by current geometric design practices. It is anticipated that by implementing the results of the Reliability Research Program, throughput at these critical locations will be increased and secondary crashes reduced. There are also geometric features and highway system design elements that cause travel time reliability problems. These might include bottleneck locations, alignment problems, vertical or lateral clearance deficiencies, visual obstructions or distractions, etc. that contribute to volatility in traffic flow and variations in travel time. Driver Behavior Goal 7: Increase the throughput of both recurrent and non-recurrent bottlenecks by 10 percent by improving driver behavior and bottleneck design. Relatively little is known about how drivers negotiate bottlenecks. Anecdotally, driver behavior is thought to be a major source of delay that is both significant and treatable. The slow speeds in the opposite direction of an incident and erratic behavior at merging zones are two examples of the problems. The Research Plan includes studies that will lead to greater understanding on human behavior as it relates to reliability factors. The results of this research can be linked to a variety of deployment programs including improved geometric design, educational programs, and methods to reduce secondary crashes. 16

20 Traffic Control Improvements Goal 8: Improve the throughput during reliability-related congestion events by 15 percent through the use of advanced traffic control strategies. Most traffic control strategies are currently oriented toward typical conditions. While some emerging control strategies dynamically adapt to minor fluctuations in demand, major planned and unplanned events with significant systemic effects such as special events, severe weather, evacuations, and major incidents are not addressed. These major events cause drivers to behave differently and produce major shifts in demand. Further, the state of the practice in traffic control for planned events such as work zones and special functions is highly limited. Advances in traffic control strategies including how to plan better control strategies are a major feature of the Reliability Research Plan. D-3: Monitoring Progress Toward Goals The lack of comprehensive congestion and event monitoring data hinders monitoring progress toward this objective (as well as the specific goals discussed in the next section). Therefore, establishing travel time reliability metrics and the data to support them will be an important part of the research. These metrics should be useful to transportation agencies in planning as well as operating their system. In addition, the establishment of a monitoring program to gauge changes in several aspects of congestion and mobility will have value to the entire F-SHRP program, not just Reliability. The Reliability research topic is much less conventional than Capacity, Renewal, and Safety. This unconventional nature will require unique F-SHRP program oversight provisions for the Reliability topic. A structured and sustained topic area oversight group for reliability will need to include a broad segment of transportation and public safety professionals and administrators. This group will also need to aggressively coordinate their efforts with transportation security, traffic incident management, and other national research activities led by transportation and non-transportation communities. D-4: Research Strategy: Expected Benefits/Payoffs of Treating Unreliable Travel Times Many cities are coming to the realization that the major roadway system will be congested during the peak hour or two during each commuting period for the foreseeable future. While transportation agencies are developing programs and projects to reduce the growth of congestion and provide mobility options, they are also attempting to improve the reliability of the transportation system. While the two issues are related and some strategies can improve both mobility and reliability of transportation service, there are also a variety of techniques and practices that have more effect on improving travel time reliability. 17

21 Commuters and freight shippers are both concerned with travel time reliability. Variations in travel time can be more frustrating and are valued highly by both groups. Previous research 3 indicates that commuters value the variable component of their travel time between one and six times as much as average travel time. And the increase in just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing processes has made a reliable travel time almost more important than an uncongested trip. Significant variations in travel time will decrease the benefits that come from lower inventory space and the use of efficient transportation networks as the new warehouse. Therefore, in both the passenger and freight realms, some evidence suggests that travel time reliability is valued at a premium by users. Work zone management programs and special event planning may present special opportunities for improving reliability and trip planning information for travelers and shippers. Holidays and variations in condition on different days of the week are similar to work zones and special events their effects can be estimated, communicated ahead of time, and travelers and shippers can adjust their trips, start times, or routes. While the reliability performance measures obtained from automated monitoring processes may show the negative effects of all these events, better planning, incentive contracts and different construction methods can provide significant benefits to travelers. Information about the travel time effects can assist the travelers, shippers, and also increase confidence in transportation agencies. A single value or concept cannot really describe the variations caused by the seven sources of delay and their effect on all travelers or shippers. Trips that enter a freeway downstream of an area where incidents frequently happen or where weather, events, or other constraints occur may actually see improved travel times on event days. The bottlenecks that are created by incidents improve downstream travel times. Sorting out the relationships between location and type of event and the magnitude of the effects will require a level of detail and study beyond the scope of areawide analyses. If cause records are sufficiently detailed and electronically recorded, there may be ways to automate much of the analysis. Until then, the measures, data requirements, and public understanding can be tested. The incident experiences can be instructive in estimating the travel time and delay effects. Studies 4 indicate that a nonlinear relationship exists between incident duration and the delay caused by incidents. That is, small reductions in incident duration can lead to disproportionately larger reductions in delay. For example, a Cohen and Southworth study indicated that the total delay due to an incident varies with the square of incident duration. For example, if the duration of incidents is reduced by 10 percent, then the total delay caused by the incident is reduced by 19 percent ( ). Reducing incident duration by 10 percent (therefore reducing the traffic volume caught in the queue by 10 percent) and each vehicle caught in the queue will spend 10 percent less time in the queue. Regardless of the exact nature of the relationship, it is clear that incident delay is a nonlinear function of duration. This fact has strong implications for the other causes of unreliability and the Reliability Research Plan. It means that incident management strategies that on their face appear to 3 Cohen, Harry, and Southworth, Frank, On the Measurement and Valuation of Travel Time Variability Due to Incidents on Freeways, Journal of Transportation Statistics, Volume 2, Number 2, December 1999, 4 Ibid. 18

22 be only marginal improvements in practice actually can have a major impact on travel time reliability. Another important point on the expected benefits of addressing unreliable transportation events is that there is a double benefit: treating the impacts of or eliminating unreliable events not only reduces the variability experienced by travelers, but also reduces the total amount of delay. This effect is graphically illustrated in Figure D.2. If the travel time impacts of certain events (say, incidents) can be reduced, then the distribution becomes less skewed ( tighter ). Further, both the average travel time and the total delay (the areas under the curves) are also reduced. Several second order benefits are also achieved by reducing reliability-related delay. Chief among these is the reduction in secondary crashes these are crashes that occur because an earlier crash has produced unexpected queues and rubbernecking by curious motorists. Any reduction in the duration of the primary crash reduces the opportunity for a secondary crash to occur. Further, reductions in fuel consumption and short-term improvement in air quality can also be expected by reducing delay. D-5: Types of Research Products The results of implementing the research projects specified in the Reliability Research Program will be in the form of multiple products, depending on the nature of the research undertaken in each project. Research products are discussed in both the individual project scopes as well as in Section H: Implementation. 19

23 Treating Excessive Travel Times Tightens the Variability of the Distribution and Reduces the Both Mean Travel Time and the Total Delay Mean Mean 10 8 Travel Time Travel Time = Reducing the impacts of extreme events Figure D.2. Effects of Reducing the Travel Times Caused by Unreliable Events 20

24 E. OVERVIEW OF RELATED WORK NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities E-1: Introduction In addition to the work cited in Section D, the Research Team is aware of several recent efforts that bear directly on the development of the Reliability Research Plan. These efforts are discussed below. Many of them have been used in defining the scopes of the projects in the Research Plan. In particular, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has research efforts that related to a few of the projects in the F-SHRP Reliability Research Plan. E-2: Traffic Incident Management and Institutional Issues Institutional issues have been recognized as being very important in managing incident detection and clearance. FHWA s Traffic Incident Management (TIM) Program includes a project (Development of Case Studies of Formal Regional and Statewide Traffic Incident Management Programs) that is similar to Project ( Institutional Architecture ). The purpose of the FHWA project is to investigate six Traffic Incident Management Programs, both formal and less formal, across the United States and produce Case Study Reports that describes the programs. The programs will be a mixture of regional and statewide programs that involve some formal or informal (structured by not supported by formal agreements) partnerships among transportation, public safety and private sector parties. The final case studies report will discuss how the programs were formed, what events or decisions lead to their formation, how they are sustained (institutionally, technically and financially), successes and failures (lessons learned), changes made since inception to support or strengthen the programs and recommendations on program structure needed to support multiagency programs to effectively manage and resolve traffic incidents. Project 3.3-1, is envisioned as a key element of the F-SHRP Reliability Research Plan; the scope and products of the FHWA project should be further investigated if any similar project is considered in the F-SHRP process. If necessary, Project should be re-scoped rather than eliminated to address scope elements that are not covered by the FHWA project and any follow-on studies. (Project was conceived as major study to look at institutional issues is an in-depth and multidisciplinary way there may be no major overlaps with the FHWA study.) The critical nature of the study and the need to incorporate results from several different institutional relationships and multiple systems are important to several other projects in the plan. The most recent and comprehensive effort aimed at traffic incident management issues was the National Conference on Traffic Incident Management held in Irvine, CA on March 11-13, The conference brought together stakeholders from many different types of agencies involved in traffic incident management. A series of breakout sessions produced a list of issues of three categories that must be addressed for effective traffic incident management: (1) operational issues, (2) technological issues, and (3) institutional issues. Many of the projects in the F-SHRP Reliability Research Plan are based on the issues identified at this conference. 21

25 E-3: Data and Analytic Methods NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Several states, MPOs and FHWA have research efforts aimed at improved measures and estimation procedures. California is investigating methods to estimate recurrent and non-recurrent congestion from archived data and traffic count-based data. Florida is examining a variety of reliability performance measures as part of their statewide transportation plan. Washington has incorporated measures of reliability in their real-time travel time displays as well as in their operations program evaluations. Cambridge Systematics and Texas Transportation Institute are using the archived data generated from traffic management systems for a project with Federal Highway Administration. The Mobility Monitoring Program is investigating issues related to data quality and database development as well as developing reliability performance measures. The archived data will be important elements of any reliability measurement program. A limited amount of research has been conducted on incorporating travel time reliability into transportation planning models. 5,6 These studies have focused on how travel time variation and travel time savings affect travelers route choices. These studies provide a base from which to launch the proposed F-SHRP Reliability projects through California is investigating methods to estimate recurrent and non-recurrent congestion from archived field sensor data and traffic count-based data. The method under development will provide estimates for non-recurrent congestion in terms of time of day, day of week, season, highway functional class, urbanization, and congestion cause. Two different methodologies are proposed: One for freeways with surveillance and one for all other freeways and conventional state highways in California. The methodology for freeways with surveillance starts with the actual measured total congestion and divides it by cause: recurrent congestion, traffic incidents (crashes, breakdowns, debris), work zones, weather, special events, and other non-recurrent congestion. This method uses loop detector data and incident information from the California Highway Patrol s Computer Aided Dispatch database to calculate the total, recurrent and incident delay. Two measures of delay are computed: one that compares actual travel time to the ideal free-flow speed travel time, the other compares actual travel time to the theoretical travel time at Caltrans target of 35 mph. Both estimates of total delay (free-flow speed, and 35 mph) are then each divided among the various causes of recurrent and non-recurrent delay using a series of rules plus historical information on accident rates and weather. The recommended methodology for all other freeways and highways in California that do not have field sensor data uses count-based data, traffic management center incident logs, highway patrol accident reports, lane closure records, and weather records and builds up an estimate of total delay through estimates of the various component causes of delay: recurrent congestion, weather, traffic incidents, work zones, special events, and other non-recurrent events. The method relies on input regarding the geometric and demand characteristics for the facility and previous studies of the probability of occurrence for 5 Abdel-Aty, M.A., R. Kitamura and P.P. Jovanis. "Investigating the Effect of Travel Time Variability on Route Choice Using Repeated-Measurement Stated Preference Data," Transportation Research Record 1493, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, pp , Abdel-Aty, M.A., R. Kitamura, and P. P. Jovanis. "Exploring Route Choice Behavior Using GIS-Based Alternative Routes and Hypothetical Travel Time Information Input," Transportation Research Record 1493, Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, pp ,

26 various non-recurrent congestion causes. Historic data on accident rates and weather is desirable, but can be circumvented with default rates, if necessary. FHWA has several initiatives under its Archived Data User Service (ADUS) Program. ADUS is geared to promoting the use of ITS-generated data for uses beyond real-time control strategies. Current and past research has focused on: revision to the National ITS Architecture; development of the Federal Five-Year ADUS Program; development of outreach brochures; the potential of ADUS to supply data to traditional transportation information systems; development of a data model for ITSgenerated traffic and incident data; and data quality concerns for ITS traffic data. A major ADUS initiative is a field operational test, TMC Applications of Archived Data, which will highlight how archived data can used to develop performance measures and sophisticated operational control strategies. The results of this field operational test will feed directly into Project Another FHWA initiative that bears on several projects in the Reliability Research Program is the Next Generation Simulation Model (NGSIM) effort. The goals of the NGSIM effort are to produce: Validation data sets. These are the sets of real-world traffic data with its corresponding data descriptions that will be used to validate the core algorithms. These validation data sets may also be used by the traffic simulation community as a resource to assist in the calibration and validation of existing models. Core algorithms. These are the set of algorithms necessary to describe the fundamental behavioral models associated with the driver-vehicle-highway systems. Some examples include lane change logic, gap acceptance logic, and response to traffic control devices. Including reliability estimation into simulation models is not currently an aspect of NGSIM. However, it is expected that the project will assemble existing data sets as well as collect original data that will have application for several of the Reliability Research projects (especially those related to driver behavior). Coordination of these data collection efforts will provide a high valueadded to both programs. MitreTek s HOWLATE program was developed to test the ways that the public might use traffic information and to perform several tests of the effects on their experience. The program can provide a good test bed for ATIS evaluations by simulating a variety of model travelers each of whom has a different set of travel expectation and decision-making processes. This presents a method to see how the performance measures react to a range of conditions. It is not a data analyzer or presentation of congestion information. The program is an application of the congestion information to a set of uses that other programs or survey methodologies may not be well-suited for. It can form a base from which to incorporate reliability into planning models and the planning process (Projects and 3.2-4). FHWA has also been involved in developing dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) procedures that are directly relevant for Projects and The DTA project recognizes that the success of ITS deployment depends on the availability of advanced analysis tools to predict traffic network conditions and to analyze network performance in the planning and operational stages. The FHWA R&D initiated a Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) research project in 1994 to develop procedures to meet these data needs and to address complex traffic control and management issues in the information-based, dynamic ITS environment. The DTA project is dedicated to two primary objectives: (1) to develop a deployable real-time estimator to meet information needs in the ITS context and (2) to leverage the same technology to develop a new generation of tools to support 23

27 transportation network planning and traffic operations and control decisions within the ITS environment. E-4: Traveler Information Washington State DOT has made several recent changes to both their operations and their traveler information web pages to improve both the reliability of trips, and their ability to communicate the current level of trip reliability to travelers. To improve trip reliability, WSDOT recently added a large number of publicly funded service patrols. To determine the effectiveness and to provide management control of those services, WSDOT is actively measuring the occurrence of traffic incidents and is building the analytical capabilities within their freeway performance monitoring system to measure the effects of those incidents on freeway performance. This information will be used to both report on the effectiveness of the system, and to identify changes to operational strategies (location of services, times of operation, etc.) needed to optimize the benefits those services provide. On their web site, WSDOT has recently added a "travel time" page. This page lists the currently expected travel time for 11 representative trips in the region. The travel time web site also lists the average travel time for each trip at this time of day, so that the traveler can compare current performance with "normal" performance. (The "average" is computed from the freeway performance archive as the average trip time for that time of day during the previous year.) The current travel time is highlighted in color to quickly inform the traveler if the freeway is performing better than (green), the same as (blue), or worse than (red) the average. This allows a traveler to quickly determine if a trip s/he plans to take requires more or less time than normal. A major U.S.D.O.T. effort in traveler information is the establishment of the 511 phone advisory system for conveying highway conditions and transit services to travelers. The 511 Program is seeking to integrate data from a variety of sources (roadway surveillance, road closures, work zones, traffic incidents, and weather) in order to provide up-to-date information to travelers. In this sense it is similar to Project However, we expect that many technical and institutional issues will not be resolved under the current 511 Program. In fact, lessons from implementing 511 may actually provide valuable input to the scope of Project as the program develops. In any event, it is clear that the research undertaken in project must be closely coordinated with 511 activities. E-5: Work Zones A recent FHWA report on work zones outlines several research needs. 7 Most of the recommendations are related to construction and maintenance methods, and are therefore more relevant to the Renewal F-SHRP area. 7 U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Meeting the Customer's Needs for Mobility and Safety During Construction and Maintenance Operations, HPQ , September

28 E-6: Weather NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities The Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) and the Transportation Research Board (TRB) have recently announced a new study, "Weather Research for Surface Transportation: The Roadway Environment," sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration. This 18-month study will examine the research opportunities and required services needed to support improved weather products and services for users and operators of the nation's roads. Specifically, a committee of approximately 12 members will be appointed to gain an overview of road weather issues and general economic impacts, characterize the state of surface transportation weather research, identify gaps in the scientific knowledge base needed to support improve road weather forecasting, and discuss practical ways to make research findings useful for improved operations and implementation. This project is extremely relevant for Topic 3.5 of the Reliability Research Program since it essentially will define similar or additional research needs. The progress of this study bears close watching, and there may be opportunities to undertake research it identifies under the Reliability Research Program. To coordinate with the study s schedule, it may be conducive to delay the start of any weather-related research projects under Topic 3.5 until later years of the Program. The Foretell Field Operational Test (FOT) is a multi-state initiative covering the Upper Mississippi Valley region, and funded in part by the Federal Highway Administration. Its mission is to create a road and weather information system fully integrated within a wider set of ITS services to enhance safety and facilitate travel throughout North America. By making use of state-of-the-art National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) and Environment Canada data sources and models, Road/Weather Information Systems (RWIS) sensors and mobile platforms, Foretell generates detailed weather and road condition information for its users. Foretell delivers the benefits of advanced weather systems and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to transportation and trucking professionals, every day commuters, long distance travelers, shippers and transportation system operators. Foretell collects, forecasts and distributes detailed road weather information and creates a widely accessible, real-time road and weather information system that supports seamless information sharing for travelers and highway maintenance managers. The results and evaluation of the Foretell FOT should be closely monitored as they may indicate areas that require additional research. Again, delaying weather-related projects until later years of the F-SHRP program appears warranted. Another weather-related FOT sponsored by FHWA is the Advanced Transportation Weather Information System. This goal of this FOT is to provide an evaluation and demonstration of how current technologies in mesoscale meteorological analysis and forecasting can be effectively used to produce precise spatial and temporal weather information for integration into an Advanced Transportation Information System for safer and more efficient operations. Through this evaluation and demonstration, a prototype information and management center to support traffic weather analysis and forecasting in a responsive decision support environment will be developed. This system will be capable of providing immediate assessment of difficulties in travel arising from changing weather conditions. This project will demonstrate a prototypical advanced weather information system that may be implemented on a larger national scale. ATWIS is an on-going service. Other weather-related programs at FHWA must also be closely monitored. Future FHWA efforts will focus on all technical aspects of the road transportation system, including weather data 25

29 collection, assimilation, processing and dissemination, as well as the institutional challenges surrounding system implementation. The institutional challenges include coordination within state and local Departments of Transportation, such as between maintenance and travel management offices, as well as across the transportation and meteorological communities. With regard to technical areas of interest, data collection efforts will include optimizing the siting of environmental sensor stations, as well as incorporating road weather observational data, such as pavement and subsurface observations, into broader meteorological observation networks. Better processing includes the application of high-resolution weather models, and the development of other road condition prediction models (e.g. heat balance models) needed to develop appropriate weather information. Such products will be incorporated into better decision support systems, whose design is based on current efforts to document road weather decision support requirements. As these topics come to fruition at FHWA, F-SHRP staff should look for opportunities to combine resources. E-7: The Surface Transportation Security and Reliability Information System Model Deployment This FHWA-sponsored effort is a major project that encompasses all of the topics discussed above. This model deployment is focused on enhancing the security and reliability of the surface transportation system through the widespread availability of real-time information. The model deployment will examine how security and reliability can be improved under the five specific situations or scenarios described below: Major metropolitan areas The collection and dissemination of real time information on all principal arterials, freeways, major rail and bus systems, and intermodal connectors and facilities to support security management and emergency evacuation and response. On a day-to-day basis, this real-time information will also support improved congestion management and traffic incident response, enhanced travel time reliability, improved safety and better overall operational performance of the metropolitan area surface transportation system. Statewide reporting system The widespread collection and dissemination of information on traffic incidents, weather events, and other scheduled and non-scheduled lane and road closures that can significantly impact security management and emergency response by reducing travel capacity on major highways. Security of critical infrastructure The surveillance and monitoring of critical bridges and tunnels; major rail and bus facilities; freight and intermodal connectors and terminals; and major hazardous materials and military routes to detect potential security problems, provide alerts and assist in postevent analysis. Non-metropolitan evacuation Traffic and weather monitoring of key roadways or corridors outside of metropolitan areas to support emergency evacuations caused by either man-made or natural disasters. Weather response The collection and use of road weather information to improve safety and operational response to weather events such as flood, fog, snow or ice. The project is expected to develop: 26

30 Innovative approaches and technologies for providing security monitoring and management of critical infrastructure, particularly tunnels, bridges and key intermodal freight and transit facilities. Collection and operational use of traffic and weather data to support emergency evacuation. The data needed to support security management, emergency evacuation, congestion management, freight management, safety management, weather response, and traveler information. This includes learning about the spacing, coverage, frequency, and mix of innovative and traditional data sources. Innovative approaches and technologies for monitoring and collecting traffic, transit, truck and intermodal freight, weather and transportation security information. The amount of surveillance or monitoring needed to support improved transportation security and reliability as a function of traffic volumes and geographic area. New institutional arrangements needed for the integration and sharing of data. 27

31 F. RELIABILITY RESEARCH PLAN NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities F-1: Overview of Research Plan As discussed in Section C, nine topic areas were defined under which individual project statements were developed. These nine topic areas may be grouped into three broad categories as follows: 1. Improving the Knowledge Base 3-1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times 3-3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations 2. Improvements in Analytic Methods 3-2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability 3-6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurrent and Non- Recurrent Bottlenecks 3. Reliability Improvement Strategies (including new technologies and improved practices) 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response 3-5: Incorporating Weather Information into Traveler Information and Agency Operation Functions 3-7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions 3-8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability 3-9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss With this grouping, the Research Plan may be viewed as a blend of improving fundamental knowledge and directly developing practical products for use in dealing with reliability issues. The project topics might also be thought of as relating to functional elements of a typical transportation agency. That grouping might look like this: 1. Operations 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response 3-5: Incorporating Weather Information into Traveler Information and Agency Operation Functions 3-7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions 3-8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability 3-9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response 28

32 2. Infrastructure 3-6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurrent and Non- Recurrent Bottlenecks 3. Administrative or Managerial 3-1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times 3-2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability 3-3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations There are other ways to look at the projects as well. The Research Plan contains many cross-linkages between projects within the Reliability Research Program, as well as with other F-SHRP Topic areas. Table F.1 presents a summary of the Research Plan by listing the project titles, expertise needed, and anticipated project durations and budgets. Details on the projects statements follow. 29

33 Table F.1. Summary of Reliability Research Plan NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Topic and Project 3-1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices 3.2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability 3-2.1: Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring 3-2.2: Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability 3-2.3: Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Improvement Strategies 3-2.4: Incorporating Reliability Estimation into Planning and Operations Modeling Tools 3-2.5: Incorporating Mobility and Reliability Performance Metrics into the Transportation Programming Process 3-2.6: Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability 3-3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations 3-3.1: Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies 3-3.2: Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations 3-3.3: Highway Funding and Programming Structures to Promote Operations Research Expertise Needed Institutional, technology, operations practices Information librarian, web site preparation Duration (Months) Budget ($K) 24 1, ,000 Statistics, Operations 24 1,200 Statistics, database design 60 3,000 Operations practices, traveler information Planning models, traffic simulation models Transportation project programming, institutional 24 2, , ,000 Economics, human factors 24 1,500 Industrial or organizational psychology, human factors, administrative management, legal, emergency medical service Institutional, communication/public relations, education Finance, Institutional, operations, funding and programming, policy 48 3, , ,500 30

34 Topic and Project 3-3.4: Personnel Requirements for Conducting Effective Traffic Incident, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response Research Expertise Needed Labor management, operations Duration Budget (Months) ($K) 24 2, : Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations 3-4.2: Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists 3-4.3: Systems for Tracking Hazardous Material Movements Nationwide 3-5: Incorporating Weather Information into Traveler Information and Agency Operation Functions 3-5.1: Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions 3-5.2: Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions 3-5.3: Use of Road Weather, Safety and Travel Reliability Data to Identify Ways to Improve Travel Time Reliability 3-5.4: Development of Better Mitigation Options for Weather Events 3-6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurring and Non-recurring Bottlenecks 3-6.1: Identification and Evaluation of the Cost- Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion 3-6.2: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual 3-6.3: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design 3-6.4: The Relationship between Recurring and Non-Recurring Congestion 3-7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions Sensor technology, transportation operations Communications, systems design, human factors Hazardous materials, freight movement Weather, communication, information systems Weather, maintenance, administrative/management 60 4, , , , ,500 Weather, administrative/management, information systems, institutional 36 1,500 Geometric design, weather 36 2,500 Design, capacity, simulation, traffic flow theory Design, capacity, simulation, Highway Capacity Manual Design, capacity, simulation, AASHTO Geometric Policy Design, capacity, simulation, traffic flow theory 48 3, , , ,000 31

35 Topic and Project 3-7.1: Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.3: Improving Merging Behavior on Urban Freeways 3-8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability 3-8.1: Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems 3-8.2: Increasing the Credibility of Travel Time Predictions with Travelers 3-8.3: Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market and Its Impact on Public Sector Operational Strategies 3-8.4: Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems 3-9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss 3-9.1: Implementation of Alternative Traffic Operation Strategies 3-9.2: Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques 3-9.3: Simulation and Gaming Tools for Incident Response Research Expertise Needed Human factors, simulated environments, roadway capacity Human factors, simulated environments, education Human factors, education, roadway capacity Communication, market surveys, transportation engineering Communication, information systems Travel information, communication, institutional Information systems, database management, traveler information Institutional, traffic control, incident management Human factors, institutional, incident management, Emergency Medical Services Traffic simulation, incident management Duration (Months) Budget ($K) 24 3, , , , , , , , , ,000 TOTAL 8,800 32

36 F-2: Research Project Definitions Topic 3-1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times Topic Objective: Practices to address the root causes of unreliable travel times are scattered and largely undocumented. A substantial improvement in the effectiveness of programs dealing with the root causes of travel time reliability can be made by compiling current best practices and developing application guidelines for practitioners, who often do not have knowledge of the best available technologies and methods, or how to implement them. In other words, moving the state of the practice (what exists in the field now) up to the level of the state of the art (best practices) will have a major impact on travel time reliability. Project 3-1.1: National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management Objective: To develop a baseline of knowledge from practices in the U.S. and countries outside of the U.S. Scope: Transportation agencies and other agencies that work cooperatively with transportation agencies in the U.S. have largely developed their own internal procedures for dealing with the management of traffic incidents, weather, work zones, and special events. Additionally, many other countries have a long history of addressing these sources of reliability in their own ways. There is no standard practice in these areas and agencies are often left to develop their own practices. The experiences and practices of foreign countries offer great potential for application in the U.S. Their strategies are often good examples of outside the box thinking with regard to how U.S. agencies develop operational strategies. For example, northern European countries routinely deal with harsh winter weather conditions and their strategies may be helpful to U.S. agencies. Also, the use of variable speed limits and lane control in other countries may be enlightening. This project is seen as providing a foundation for many of the other projects in the Reliability Research Program. Tasks: Note there will be two Tracks for this project: national and international. Each of the tasks below will be repeated for each Track. (a) Literature review to identify promising strategies in each category (traffic incidents, weather, work zone, and special events) by country of origin. (b) Identification of countries and agencies for field visits. Selection of the countries should strongly consider a geographic spread (e.g., European and Asian countries) (c) Field visits to selected countries and agencies and documentation of practices in terms of: 1. Institutional setting 2. Implementation costs 33

37 3. Technologies used 4. Evaluation of impacts NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities 5. Applicability of practice to U.S. conditions, particularly with regard to institutional barriers that may be encountered (d) Prepare a Final Report. Relationship to Other Projects: This project should be initiated immediately after the F-SHRP program is established. Most of the other projects in the Reliability Research Program will benefit from the knowledge gained here. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This project provides precursor work on which other Travel Time Reliability projects can build. The product is a report. Project 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices Objectives: (1) Develop and maintain a repository of current best practices and F- SHRP results; (2) provide synthesis, assessments, and summaries of current best practices for use by practitioners; and (3) develop specific products that meet practitioner needs; and (4) develop delivery/outreach mechanisms. Scope: This project will develop a mechanism for assembling, assessing, and disseminating information on the current best practices in these four categories. The scope will include both the establishment of a formal knowledge repository as well as its operation. A design/build approach to project development is envisioned. The Outreach Program will also assemble the research results from the Reliability Research Program and will actively disseminate these results into practice. In fact, the Outreach Program will be a major mechanism for implementing research results from other projects in the Reliability area into practice. Tasks: (a) Establish Expert Panel to guide development and operation of the Outreach Program (b) Design procedures for obtaining information Surveys of agency practice In-depth case studies for highly promising practices Research results from other F-SHRP activities (c) Design evaluation procedures for obtained practices (d) Design and develop products tailored to specific needs of practitioners. This may involve improving the products developed from F-SHRP reliability research projects. Recognize that there may be different levels of sophistication required for areas of different sizes and funding requirements. 34

38 Also, consideration must be given to the needs of both transportation and nontransportation agencies involved in implementing Operational strategies. (e) Design information management system that will be the basis of outreach activities and product development. (f) Design procedures and products for actively disseminating information. Some of the mechanisms that will be employed include: development of training programs, peer-to-peer exchanges, acting as intermediaries between agencies and the private sector, and on-call expert advisors to respond to practitioners needs. (g) Implement Outreach Program and develop information management system (after design approval) (h) Operate Outreach Program (i) Develop training and outreach programs to actively disseminate the knowledge base contained in the Outreach Program. Conduct pilot training courses (as needed) in at least three states. Investigate different methods for disseminating products. Develop a process for annually updating the training and outreach programs. Relationship to Other Projects: Project (National and International Scans) will tie directly into first phases of this project by providing the initial information base. This project will interact directly with other projects in the Reliability Research Program, both providing information as background to other projects and accepting research results. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 60 months; $5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product is the information management system to support outreach along with the processes for obtaining, assessing, and disseminating the information. Proactive outreach efforts, including training and peer-to-peer activities are also envisioned. Topic 3-2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability Topic Objective: Travel time reliability is a new concept to the transportation profession. Many of the fundamental concepts are still being developed such as the relative contribution of different sources to overall reliability and practitioners are not well versed in data and methods to measure travel time reliability. Further, the expected impacts of mitigation strategies aimed at improving reliability have not been adequately quantified, which greatly hinders the incorporation of these strategies in transportation planning and programming activities. Project 3-2.1: Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring Objectives: (1) To define what data are needed to implement Operations strategies and performance monitoring; (2) develop common definitions for required data; (3) 35

39 identify data collection requirements (coverage, frequency, accuracy); (4) identify alternative business models for collecting, managing, and processing the data. Scope: Information on system performance in real-time is at the core of implementing Operational strategies. The same information can also be used in a historical sense to develop performance monitoring statistics. Recent Federal efforts on specifying the so-called INFOstrutcure and the data gap for traveler information systems have taken a big step toward identifying data requirements for Operations. Performance monitoring has also been advanced by efforts such as FHWA s Mobility Monitoring Program. However, it is clear that these efforts are built around the current state of the practice; by the time the F-SHRP program is implemented, the situation is expected to change. As Operational strategies become more sophisticated and performance monitoring becomes more detailed data requirements are expected to increase. Specifically, several applications on the short-term horizon can be identified as driving the need for more intricate data: Tasks: Real-time predictive models that forecast short-range traffic conditions rather than just simply providing a snapshot of current conditions (e.g., the expected queue build-up in 15 minutes from an incident that just occurred) Customized traveler information, including alternative and dynamic route guidance Decomposition of delay into its component sources for performance monitoring purposes Integrated freeway/arterial traffic control as well as cross-jurisdictional traffic control. (a) Identify specific Operational strategies for which data requirements will be determined. Include traffic incident management, weather events, work zones, evacuations, traveler information, ramp meter control, traffic signal control, and lane control as major categories, as well as others identified by the contractor. Decompose the major categories into more detailed applications as necessary (e.g., incident detection, verification, and response activities). (b) Identify the conditions that need to be measured for performance monitoring. Include short-term monitoring for adjusting Operational controls as well as long-term monitoring for planning and programming purposes. (c) For each application, review both existing software as well as algorithms from the literature to determine required data items. Review existing and emerging standards for data definitions and formats. Revise data definitions and formats to be consistent with the needs of the applications, including cross-walks between different definitions and formats. (d) For each application, determine the required data accuracy, extent of coverage, frequency, and timeliness of the data. 36

40 (e) Examine several alternative models of data collection and use from deployments around the country. Evaluate the models in terms of cost to the public agency, type and quality of services provided, and implementation details. (f) Produce a Final Report for the project. Relationship to Other Projects: This project will feed directly into Project Project as well as all of the traveler information projects under Topic 3.8 will also use the results. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.2 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The Final report will help to guide the deployment of Operational strategies and will set the framework for the monitoring program under Project Project 3-2.2: Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability Objectives: (1) Develop mobility metrics (measures) for recurrent and non-recurrent delay and events (e.g., work zones and traffic incident characteristics); (2) establish data collection and analysis programs to support mobility and reliability monitoring. Scope: Local monitoring programs are essential for providing feedback to practitioners on the effectiveness of their programs and for future planning. A National monitoring program is needed to help guide future Federal investments and for determining progress of the F-SHRP program in general. This project will develop a complete set of metrics for measuring mobility and reliability. The metrics will have the following characteristics: Geographic: applicability to segment, corridor, sub-area, regional, and levels Source: applicability to recurrent and non-recurrent sources; non-recurrent sources will include sub-metrics for contributing factors to reliability (traffic incidents, work zones, weather, special events, traffic control, and inadequate capacity). State and local agencies are increasingly using of data from ITS and other Operations sources for performance monitoring and evaluation. One specific example is the Intelligent Transportation Infrastructure Program funded by FHWA, but many agencies are also performing these functions on their own. The project will make maximum use of these activities and will accommodate local needs as well as the need for performance monitoring at the national level. Tasks: Phase 1: Design (a) Convene an Expert Panel to guide the design of the monitoring programs. The Expert Panel should be composed of personnel from state and local agencies who have a stake in local data collection and use of the data for local 37

41 purposes. The Expert Panel will help to ensure that data collection and management requirements do not overburden local agencies. (b) Develop common definitions for congestion, mobility, reliability, and delay by conducting outreach to the transportation community, elected officials, and the public. (c) Identify appropriate statistical metrics for measuring congestion, mobility, reliability, and delay at several geographic and time scales, as well as for individual contributing factors. (d) Identify the methods required to support the development of the metrics. analytic procedures for dealing with these issues. Fully specify issues of data quality and data processing and develop analytic procedures for dealing with these issues. (e) Design prototype monitoring programs at the National, state, and metropolitan levels. Identify three states in which to implement monitoring systems. Include all major metropolitan areas within the states as well as any statewide activities. Phase 2: Implementation (f) Develop the software needed to implement the monitoring systems at the state and metropolitan levels. The software will be developed in such a way that it can be customized with minimal effort to other agencies. The software be developed using tools, operating systems, and programming languages commonly available at transportation agencies. At a minimum, core algorithms will be identified and developed as open source code for easy transferability. Consideration will be given to developing open source code for the software. (g) Develop software to support a National monitoring program based on using information from state and metropolitan systems. Relationship to Other Projects: Phase 1 of this project will provide input to the remainder of the projects under this Topic. This should be a joint project with Strategic Focus 4 (Capacity) and perhaps for all of F-SHRP. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 60 months; $3 million (including incentive grants to local areas) Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product of Phase 1 will be definitions and metrics for use by transportation agencies. Phase 2 will develop software that can be adapted for use by transportation agencies and to support a National monitoring system. It is anticipated that the National system will be used to monitor the progress toward F-SHRP goals for Strategic Focus Areas 3 and 4 (Reliability and Capacity). 38

42 Project 3-2.3: Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Improvement Strategies Objectives: To develop technical relationships between improvement strategies and reliability performance metrics. Scope: Little is known about how various strategies aimed at improving reliability quantitatively affect delay and travel time variability. This project will quantify the effects that reliability improvement strategies have on the performance metrics identified in Project The results of this study will be used elsewhere in the Reliability Research Program as well as for stand-alone use by practitioners. The primary use will be to establish the technical relationships for use in Project Tasks: (a) Develop a typology of reliability improvement strategies for further study. The taxonomy should include the major categories of traffic incident management, work zone management, special event management, physical capacity increases (including traffic signal control), and weather management. (Traveler information will not be included; the impacts of traveler information are being studied under a Project 3-8.1). Under each of these main categories, the contractor will define improvement types indicative of practice (e.g., incident detection, capital strategies, incident verification, and incident response) for further study. Also identify the performance metrics that will be affected by each strategy. (b) Conduct a literature review on the relationship between improvement types and travel time reliability measures (c) Develop an experimental design to define the measurement levels for field data collection. For example, determine what the base congestion levels should be for each of the measurements taken to study traffic incident management effects as well as controlling for other background effects such as the number of lanes and other forms of operational control. The experimental designs will vary depending on the improvement strategy being studied. (d) Based on the experimental design, develop a field data collection plan to support the research into the relationships. Take maximum advantage of existing data collection (e.g., TMC-derived data). (e) Collect field data (f) Develop statistical relationships between the strategies and performance metrics. (g) Construct Application Guidelines for applying the relationships Relationship to Other Projects: This project feeds directly into Project Some of the data to be used in this study are expected to be generated by Project However, it is also expected that more detailed research-grade data will have to be collected specifically for this project. 39

43 Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $2 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The Application Guidelines will be the main product of this research. Project 3-2.4: Incorporating Reliability Estimation into Planning and Operations Modeling Tools Objectives: (1) To add the capability of producing reliability metrics as output to planning and operations models and (2) to determine how travel demand forecasting models can use reliability estimates to produce revised estimates of travel patterns. Scope: The models in common use by operations and planning personnel do not currently include estimates of reliability as part of their output. If reliability concerns are to be part of the transportation investment decision process, these models must have the ability to estimate reliability as a function of highway and traffic conditions. This is significant for both planning future improvements and evaluating current deployments. The models to be considered include: existing travel demand forecasting (TDF) models; traffic simulation models; emerging models (e.g., TRANSIMS, FHWA s Next Generation of Simulation Models); the ITS Deployment Analysis System (IDAS) model; and real-time performance prediction models. The work will proceed by developing open source code for incorporation into wide variety of models, including those supported by the private sector. Additionally, travel demand forecasting models do not currently account for the effect of travel time reliability on travel patterns. There is some evidence that travelers make their choices of trip time, mode, and route by considering travel time reliability. By adding a reliability component to the travel decision process, more accurate estimates of trip patterns can be made. Meeting this second objective will depend highly on successfully addressing the first. Accordingly, the tasks for this second part of the research will be specified by the contractor after the completion of the first part. Tasks: Part 1: Reliability Estimates as Output to Planning and Simulation Models (a) Review the work completed by Projects and Develop Conceptual Plans for incorporating the relationships into each selected model. (b) Develop Test Plans for applying the models. The Test Plans should be based on using actual highway networks from metropolitan areas and with the participation of state and/or MPO personnel from these areas. (c) Identify specific models (software products) to be included in the study. This will include one TDF model, one microscopic traffic simulation model, and one macroscopic traffic simulation model. Consideration will be given to using the Highway Capacity Manual in lieu of a formal macroscopic model. (NOTE: The contractor may need to obtain the source code for the selected models, depending on the approach taken in the Conceptual Plans. For 40

44 example, a post-processor approach would not require access to source code, just to network files.) (d) Develop software to implement the Conceptual Plans. The software will be developed, to the extent possible, in open source format so that it can be easily adapted to other software products. (e) Implement the Test Plans on the software. Report findings to F-SHRP. Revise software and re-test, as needed. (f) Conduct case studies for each software product in the metropolitan areas identified in Task (b). The case studies should include typical scenarios encountered by the participating agencies. These could include 20-year forecasts of traffic and highway re-design. Part 2: Incorporating Travelers Use of Reliability in Travel Demand Forecasting Models (g) Use the results of Tasks (a) through (f) as a basis for developing a Study Plan. Propose how the contractor will study how reliability affects trip generation (including timing of trips) and the choice of destinations, modes, and routes. Fully specify data collection requirements, including household surveys that may be piggybacked on planned surveys by local agencies. (h) Upon approval of F-SHRP, undertake the tasks specified in the Study Plan. Relationship to Other Projects: This project relies on the completion of Project Research Period and Funding Requirement: 48 months; $2 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: Software is the main product of this project. Software may take the form of: revised source code for specific modeling products, open source code for adaptation to other products, and stand-alone software meant to be used in conjunction with existing modeling products. Project 3-2.5: Incorporating Mobility and Reliability Performance Metrics into the Transportation Planning and Programming Processes Objective: To determine how performance metrics can be used to develop short- and long-term strategies addressing mobility and reliability. Scope: It is important to move beyond the mere reporting of performance to incorporating performance measures into the transportation investment process. However, the technical procedures for doing so have not been developed and the effect on traditional capital expenditures has not been determined. This study will make use of cooperative case studies to determine the best procedures for accomplishing this. In these studies, the contractor will work as an extension of agency staff in working out the technical details of the project. Tasks: (a) Identify two state DOTs and one MPO in which to conduct detailed case studies. The states and MPO must already have ongoing performance 41

45 monitoring systems or be capable of quickly adapting the software developed in Project (b) Working cooperatively with the state DOTs and MPO, develop performance targets for both general mobility and reliability. Assess the impact on users of deviations from the targets. Target to an area that has an extensive 511 system since its usage by travelers is a measure of value. (c) Develop procedures for linking changes in performance metrics to specific mitigation strategies (e.g., traffic incident management, work zone management). (d) Document how the use of performance metrics fits into the short-range programming process for transportation projects. Identify points where the strategies selected via performance measures conflict with those from the traditional programming process. Assess the effects on the annual budget, expenditure of funds by type of improvement, and the priority ranking of projects. (e) Identify the tradeoffs in capital vs. operating expenditures that arise from using mobility and reliability performance measures in the programming process. Examine both the short-range and long-range effects on transportation budgets and user costs of shifting funds from capital improvements to operations-oriented strategies. Relationship to Other Projects: Requires that Phase 1 of Project be completed first. Depending on the availability of data, this project may require that Phase 2 of Project be completed also. It may also require that the procedures from Project be completed first. This should be a joint project with Strategic Focus Area 4 (Capacity). Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $2 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product of this project will be documented case studies of the how the agencies incorporated performance metrics into their programming processes. Project 3-2.6: Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability Objectives: (1) To determine quantitatively how highway system users value travel time reliability and (2) to develop guidance for using measures of reliability when preparing cost-benefit analyses and planning for highway operational improvements. Scope: There has been only a limited amount of research on how highway system users value travel time reliability. The research that has been done suggests that users value the variability in travel times more than expected or normal travel times. However, the research appears to have assumed that any variability in travel time is completely unexpected, which may not be the case. (Some travelers may build in buffers to accommodate a degree of variability.) Further, different types of travelers may value travel time reliability differently. Finally, the emergence of just- 42

46 in-time (JIT) delivery raises important issues about how travel time reliability is valued by these operations compared to other types of freight operations. Tasks: (a) Conduct a review of the literature on the valuation of travel time in general plus the valuation of travel time variability by highway users. Document differences in valuation by type of highway user (e.g., commuter, freight interests, emergency responders). (b) Design a research approach for determining how users value travel time reliability. While stated preference surveys are a useful tool for this purpose, consideration should be given to using other mechanisms either on their own or in combination with state preference surveys. Data from facilities with congestion pricing may be useful in this regard. The approach should distinguish both expected and unexpected travel time variations planned for by the different user groups. Variability should be defined by one or more of the reliability metrics developed in project (c) Administer the research approach; develop technical relationships. (d) Develop Application Guidelines for using the relationships in traditional economic analyses of highway investments, such as benefit-cost analysis. (e) Demonstrate the Application Guidelines by conducting economic analyses of three example highway improvements: (1) geometric improvements only, (2) operational improvements only, and (3) combination of geometric and operational improvements. Relationship to Other Projects: This project relies on the completion of Projects and Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The products of this research are: (1) quantified relationships for the valuation of travel time variability and (2) guidelines for applying the relationships in benefit-cost analyses. Topic 3-3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations Topic Objective: Most of the mitigation strategies focused on improving travel time reliability are oriented to the operation of the highway system rather than to expanding highway physical capacity. Operational strategies require that many different units of transportation agencies work cooperatively. For example, effective work zone management implies that construction, maintenance, safety and operations personnel all have a stake in the outcome. More significantly, many operational strategies, particularly traffic incident management, require strong cooperation from many different types of agencies. These agencies have not traditionally worked together because their missions heretofore have been separate. Project 3-3.1: Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies 43

47 Objective: To identify mechanisms and organizational structures which promote intra- and inter-agency cooperation in a wide variety of operations including: traffic incident management programs, regional ITS architectures, 511 and other traveler information systems, weather systems, cross-jurisdictional traffic control, and data sharing (real-time and archived). Scope: This project will take a comprehensive look at the institutional settings in which Operations programs are conducted. The project will consider such questions as: Agency objectives and priorities How does Operations fit into a transportation agency s overall program? How is the Operations concept sold by its champions to agency upper management? What incentives exist for interagency cooperation? How are performance measures and standards used to monitor progress? Organizational roles and responsibilities for Operations Which agencies must be involved in the various aspects of Operations (e.g., law enforcement, fire and emergency response, transportation, towing for incident management)? What are the legal requirements governing each agency s role in Operational strategies? What are the different chains of command, especially at high interest incident scenes (e.g., hazmat)? How are liability concerns addressed? How is crossjurisdictional traffic control achieved? Human and financial resources -- How are funds allocated to Operations activities? How are personnel rewarded for successful activities? Establishing benchmarks and performance standards for gauging the effectiveness of Operations programs What self-assessment tools can be developed? Should formal accreditation procedures be used? Barriers to effective interagency communications during events What communications technologies, standards, and procedures will allow interoperability between agencies involved in Operations? What emerging activities can be used to advance agency communications (e.g., a common radio system, sharing aerial surveillance information, recent advances in using common computer-aided dispatch systems)? Professional values, culture, and conventions What are the differences in the cultures of participating agencies? What opportunities exist for cross-training agency personnel? What changes can be made in agency cultures to promote operations? The study will be conducted via a series of in-depth case studies of Operations programs to uncover both what has worked effectively in these cases plus what could potentially work but has not yet been tried. The results of the case studies will be applied in an experiment with a transportation agency actively involved in several aspects of Operations; additional nontransportation agencies will also be involved for activities such as traffic incident management and weather response. The 44

48 contractor will serve as resource in this experiment to guide the participants in the application of the case studies results. (NOTE: F-SHRP will assign an independent evaluator for this experiment.) It is expected that the contractor will be assemble a multidisciplinary team to conduct the project. Team members must include personnel with experience in: senior management within transportation agencies; managing multiple aspects of Operations (including traffic incident management programs, cross-jurisdictional traffic control, and weather response); tort liability; emergency response (police, fire, and/or EMS); and organizational or industrial psychology. It is expected that a discipline such as organizational/industrial psychology or other discipline geared to examining private sector corporate cultures will play a prominent role in the study. Tasks: (a) Identify four transportation agencies that have established active Operations programs from around the country for in-depth case studies. The areas should include two metropolitan areas of different sizes and one area that is strictly rural in nature or both urban and rural. With regard to traffic incident management programs, they must involve formal relationships between different public agencies (e.g., transportation, police, fire) as well as the private sector (towing companies). (b) Conduct case studies of each area. Define the history of each program, noting how it was initially developed and justified as well as how it is funded. Examine both formal and informal relationships between the agencies. Observe and report how the agencies respond to traffic incidents, weather, special events, and routine congestion. Examine the culture of each participating agency and how it promotes or hinders cooperation. Examine how upper management of each agency and elected officials view incident management, both in general and in each particular program. How is performance measured and reported, and is it used in reward structures? Have formal performance goals been established. Note any resource sharing among agencies? What local legislation and operating policies either promote or hinder Operations activities (towing, clearance, transport of victims)? Document tort liability cases that have occurred in the past or are currently in litigation; examine how these affect agency relationships and Operations practices. How is coordination achieved among agencies are there formal teams in place or it is achieved on an ad hoc basis. (c) Report case studies to F-SHRP. (d) In concert with F-SHRP, develop strategies for overcoming each of the shortcomings identified in the case studies. Include model legislation and memoranda of understanding where appropriate. Provide recommendations on equipment and standards improvements. Compile into a best practices compendium. Also develop a set of benchmarks and performance standards that agencies can use in comparing their programs against what is considered to be best practice. 45

49 (e) Select agency that did not participate in the original case studies for applying the best practices. (f) Work with the selected agency to institute the best practices. Serve as advisor/consultant/facilitator. (g) Participate in the independent evaluation. Working with the evaluator, revise the best practices compendium. (h) Develop an education/outreach program as well as a training program based around the best practices compendium. The target audiences should include upper and mid-level management in agencies routinely engaged in Operational strategies. Relationship to Other Projects: This project is seen as the flagship project for this Topic. It will be a major undertaking and will serve as the basis for other projects under this Topic. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 48 months; $3.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The documented case studies will serve as a resource for other projects under this topic. The best practices compendium will be an intermediate product to be used as the basis for the education/outreach and training programs. Project 3-3.2: Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations Objective: To demonstrate the benefits of improved transportation operations to decision-makers in both transportation and nontransportation agencies. Scope: Transportation professionals engaged in Operations have expressed their frustration over trying to sell their programs to upper management in an era of increased competition for limited funds. Operational deployments are often not as visible as traditional capital improvements and do not have the immediate impact of major capacity expansion projects. On the other hand, Operational improvements can be implemented quicker and more inexpensively without the disruptions caused by major capital projects (including the negative impact of work zones over an extended period of time). This project will promote the benefits that Operational improvements can have on system users. Because a strong need exists for immediate outreach to decision-makers, this project will be developed in two phases. The first phase should develop a product within 9 months of project start and can be less sophisticated than the final product. Also, it is expected that the final product can take advantage of the results of other research projects in promoting its message. Tasks: (a) Develop several alternatives for packaging the education program. Include multimedia presentations, video, face-to-face training, and various 46

50 combinations. Consideration must be given to personnel from both transportation and nontransportation (e.g., enforcement, emergency response, weather, and specialized hazmat) agencies. (b) In conjunction with F-SHRP select the best packaging alternative for the shortterm and long-term products. (c) Develop storyboards for presentations. Draw on benefits information derived from Topic 3-1 projects. Emphasize graphic presentations of actual traffic situations/scenarios that can be alleviated with Operational strategies (e.g., major traffic incidents, severe weather, evacuations). Include testimonials from senior transportation agency managers and directors as well as supportive elected officials. (d) Develop prototype of education program/media. (e) Demonstrate the prototype to various groups of senior management and elected officials. Include individuals who are considered to be supporters as well as skeptics of Operational strategies. (f) Revise prototype based on feedback from demonstrations. Produce final product. Relationship to Other Projects: Requires sound benefits information from Topic 3-1 projects. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The education program is the product of this research. It is expected that graphical demonstrations will be a major component. Project 3-3.3: Highway Funding and Programming Structures to Promote Operations Objective: To identify methods to plan, program, and finance Operational improvements aimed at improving travel time reliability. Scope: Funding for Operational improvements must compete with other aspects of transportation agency budgets. Although the initial capital outlay for Operationsoriented projects are often modest compared to traditional expansion projects, funding to sustain the annual maintenance of Operational strategies can be substantial. This represents a major change in how the projects are programmed; operations and management (O&M) costs must be considered simultaneously with initial capital costs. Further, Operational improvements have not been ingrained in the short-range programming and long-range planning processes. Identifying Operations projects at these levels of consideration are crucial for raising their visibility and securing funding. This project will consider funding issues in a very broad sense and will examine how existing sources of revenue can be maximized for Operational use. 47

51 Tasks: NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities (a) Select eight state transportation agencies for in-depth investigation. In these states, also select a metropolitan planning organization to gain local perspective. (b) In each agency, conduct reviews of the planning, programming, and funding structures and identify how Operations projects are developed in and included these contexts. (c) Interview Operations staff in these agencies to determine their current and future funding needs. Document difficulties in obtaining both capital and O&M funding as well as how Operations staff provide input to the ongoing planning, programming, and funding processes. (d) Conduct a national survey to determine how Operations improvements are funded within the context of normal agency operations. Identify innovative funding mechanisms that have been used to support Operations, such as dedicated portions of fuel taxes and non-fuel tax means. (e) Develop incentives and draft requirements for including Operations in the planning and programming processes (e.g., requiring an Operations component in Long-Range Transportation Plans and Transportation Improvement Programs). (f) Draft model legislation and regulations for use by Congress and state legislatures in establishing Operations funding mechanisms and planning/programming requirements. Relationship to Other Projects: Project serves as input to this study. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The model legislation, funding mechanisms, and regulations are the primary products of this research. Project 3-3.4: Personnel Requirements for Conducting Effective Traffic Incident, Work Zone, and Special Event Management Objective: To identify and promote the personnel traits and organizational structure which enhance job performance in traffic incident, work zone, and special event management. Scope: Attracting and retaining qualified and motivated personnel is one of the keys to success in managing Operations-oriented programs. The background, training, and professional development of Operations personnel all must be considered when crafting Operations programs. This is especially true because of the different nature of Operations programs compared to traditional transportation agency activities. Operations staff will have a more direct interface with the public and deal directly with safety and security concerns. In particular, the safety and security aspects of incident response, work zone operation, and traffic control for special events dictate 48

52 special requirements for Operations personnel that have not been typically considered by transportation agencies. The study will consider the needs of several different types of personnel including supervisors, field crews, and command-andcontrol staff. Tasks: (a) Identify and select traffic incident management programs in three metropolitan areas and one rural area for in-depth study. The programs must involve both transportation and nontransportation agencies and have formal cooperative agreements in place. At least one program must include the private towing industry. The three metropolitan areas must cover a broad range of operations types as distinguished by different agency personnel vs. private sector/contract personnel. For example, there will be different structures for courtesy patrols, employee certification, and the use of auxiliary personnel for incident management (e.g., fire police in some Eastern states). (b) Interview field personnel engaged in incident management from each participating agency to determine: Level of education and technical training Professional duties and responsibilities Psychological profiles Views on professional development (e.g., reward structures, job performance assessment) (c) Interview management personnel to determine their views on the above items. Include the development of job descriptions and career path considerations. Compare with the expectations of field personnel. Develop a composite sketch of existing personnel characteristics and internal structures for addressing employee issues. Recommend improvements to the current system. (d) Repeat Tasks (a) through (c) for work zone and special event management. Select one transportation agency for each of these activities. The same agency may be used for both and also may be one of those reviewed for incident management. (e) For incident management only, review training programs geared to each agency s personnel, including those given at police and fire academies. Note opportunities for enhancing the programs with regard to: Improving traffic flow at incident scenes Traffic incident clearance activities Hazardous material incident activities Communication and coordination strategies 49

53 Reducing total incident duration through improved scene management strategies Responder safety Cross-training/joint training of agency personnel (e.g., providing a piece of fire training to police and transportation personnel) (f) Outline a traffic incident management certification training program, including standards and procedures. The goal of this certification is to provide incident responders with a comprehensive perspective on incident management beyond what they are now trained in from their individual agency s perspectives. The certification training should combine the best of the programs identified in Task (e) as well as the additional training needed to provide incident responders with a base understanding of total incident management. Identify the best mechanisms for delivering the certification training (e.g., academies vs. independent training). Relationship to Other Projects: Project serves as input to this study. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $2 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The products of this research include reports recommending the personnel structures for traffic incident, work zone, and special event management employees. The certification training program for incident management is another research product. Topic 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response Topic Objective: Certain aspects of Operational strategies to address traffic problems use technology to aid responders. Traffic incident management strategies in particular use technologies to clear incident scenes. These include data collection for fatal crashes, clearance of involved vehicles, cargo offloading, and spill remediation. Advanced technology to address these functions offers the potential for dramatically reducing response time. Since many of the strategies involve the private sector (truck equipment manufacturers, carriers, and the towing industry), joint publicprivate initiatives will be explored wherever possible in the projects undertaken in this Topic. Special Notes: (1) Most of the projects under this Topic require the cooperation of agencies involved in incident and work zone management. Contractor contact with agencies will be coordinated through F-SHRP to avoid duplication and to identify areas/agencies that can facilitate multiple projects. (2) Since the projects under this Topic involve the development of equipment and new technologies, it is envisioned that the contractor arrangements will be in the form of public-private partnerships involving equipment manufacturers, software developers, and others in the private sector. Project 3-4.1: Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations Objective: To develop and test low-cost technologies for monitoring traffic and roadway conditions in real-time as an aid to Operational strategies. 50

54 Scope: Monitoring of traffic conditions in real-time is a crucial component of Operational response strategies. When ITS deployment originally was initiated, inductive loop detectors imbedded in pavement were the predominant technology used to monitor vehicle speeds, volumes, and (indirectly) roadway density. In the past decade, increasing use has been made of nonintrusive technologies such as video image processing, radar, and acoustic devices to collect the same data. These are termed nonintrusive because the devices are mounted on the side of the roadway or overhead, thus avoiding the damaging effects of traffic and the maintenance difficulties with loops. Some areas are using data from probe vehicles (usually toll-tag equipped) to generate travel times. Despite these advances, a number of issues still remain that must be addressed if Operational strategies are to reach their full potential: Tasks: Capital, installation, and maintenance costs there is a need to reduce these costs so that greater deployment can be achieved. Coverage instrumentation is usually done on only highways of great interest. However, knowledge of traffic conditions on alternative routes as well as the entire system is necessary for sophisticated Operational strategies to have an effect. Signalized highway conditions point-based detectors provide adequate data for freeway performance but are not very useful on signalized highways where most delay occurs at the signal itself. Data types point-based detectors provide spot speeds yet travel times over highway segments are more useful for many Operational strategies (e.g., traveler information) Probe vehicle shortcomings unless a substantial portion of the fleet is equipped as probes, accuracy may be a problem; roadside readers need to be placed at relatively short distances to provide the level of detail required; volumes are not collected (these are expected to be required for advanced short-term predictive algorithms). (a) Conduct a literature review of emerging technologies in other sectors of the economy that could be effectively applied to highway surveillance. Seek input from the international scans conducted in Project (b) Select 1-2 technologies with promise for overcoming the limitations cited in the Scope. Consider roadway-based, vehicle-based, and remote sensing-based technologies. (c) Develop each technology into a deployable prototype. (d) In conjunction with a state DOT, design a field test of the technology(s). The field test should cover a range of traffic and climatic conditions. Both freeways and signalized highways should be considered; this may mean seeking the help of a local transportation agency as well, in order to ensure signalized highway coverage. 51

55 (e) Evaluate the field test. Comparisons in the measurements to traditional technologies must be done. Also note the costs and procedures required for installation and maintenance. (f) Based on the evaluation, develop an Implementation Plan for how the technology(s) can be incorporated into practice. Relationship to Other Projects: The results of this project have implications for several other projects including 3-2.1, 3-2.2, and all of the projects under Topic 3.8 (Traveler Information). However, these projects may be undertaken independently since they do not directly depend on the results found here. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 60 months; $4 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: Prototype equipment for roadway surveillance and the Implementation Plan are the primary products of this research. Project 3-4.2: Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists Objective: To develop technologies that can instantaneously communicate information to motorists in rapidly changing conditions at incident and work zone scenes. The main purpose of these technologies is to reduce the occurrence of secondary crashes at incident scenes and primary crashes in work zones. Scope: Circumstances can change rapidly at work zone scenes and particularly at incident scenes. Traffic control must constantly adapt to changing conditions at the scene. Foremost among these is the rapid upstream propagation of a queue caused by a sudden lane blockage. The unexpected end of queue is a particularly dangerous situation and the cause of many secondary crashes. Innovative and standardized traffic control at these scenes is also required to improve traffic flow, reduce secondary crashes, and preserve responder safety. Motorist rubbernecking is another source of unnecessary delay and possibly secondary crashes at incident scenes as well. Tasks: (a) Conduct literature review of methods and technologies used to address: Traffic control in work zones and incident scenes, including advance warning and advice to motorists Communication of queue position and state Rubbernecking Responder safety (b) Conduct interviews with agencies using or designing new technologies to address these issues. (c) Identify new technologies that can be used to address these issues. Perform functional design and cost estimates. 52

56 (d) Develop prototypes, including public / private partnerships. (e) Develop testing and deployment protocols for real-world testing. (f) Test prototypes in real-world settings. Look for opportunities to combine the tests with other deployments. (g) Report findings, including recommendations for improving the technologies and application guidelines. Relationship to Other Projects: This project will have ramifications for Focus Areas 1 (Renewal) and 2 (Safety), and therefore may be undertaken as a joint project. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 60 months; $4 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product of this research is new technology that can be used at work zone and incident scenes. Project 3-4.3: Systems for Tracking Hazardous Material Movements Nationwide Objective: To take advantage of hazardous material movement information developed for homeland security for transportation purposes. Scope: Knowledge of the amount and movement of hazardous materials, with certain high visibility exceptions, has always been very limited. This has sometimes led to confusion at crash scenes about which materials are involved and ineffective response planning. Recent national security concerns have raised the level of interest in hazardous material movements as these pose as targets for external threats. It is likely that hazardous material tracking will become a facet of the homeland security activities. The scope of this project is determine how to tap into this information and use it for transportation purposes including identifying specific hazardous materials involved in traffic incidents as well as determining flow patterns so that local agencies can be prepared to respond. NOTE: The development of a completely new or stand-alone system for tracking hazardous materials is not envisioned. Rather, the intent is to leverage national security efforts in this area for routine hazardous material response purposes. Tasks: (a) Conduct a review of homeland security efforts in hazardous material tracking. Include a technology assessment as well as the level of cooperation needed by carriers. Determine which classes of hazardous materials should be included. (b) If the results of the feasibility study are positive, work cooperatively with homeland security personnel to identify how access to hazardous material data may be obtained. (c) Develop a functional design for the information system that would be needed to track hazardous material movements based on the system(s) used for homeland security. Include the needs of hazardous material responders in the system design. 53

57 (d) Develop detailed system design for deploying the system nationally. Include options for operation of the system. (e) Develop a rapid prototype of the full system based on the detailed system design. (f) Develop an Operations Plan for fully deploying the system. Relationship to Other Projects: None. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 48 months; $1.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The products of this research are: (1) a prototype information system and (2) an operations plan for deploying the system nationally. Topic 3-5: Incorporating Road Weather Information into Traveler Information, Agency Operations and Highway Improvements Topic Objective: Bad weather is the cause of some of the most significant travel delays for all transportation modes. Responding to significant weather events is also one of the most significant problems for public sector agency operations. A more effective response to significant weather events not only improves reliability, but the public s widespread general interest in weather means that better transportation system performance during these periods has the potential to create significant public support. Weather events are uncontrollable from a design standpoint (e.g., no rational design can prevent a major snowfall and consequent disruption of the roadway system), but the size and duration of the resulting disruptions can be mitigated, significantly improving transportation system reliability. To cost effectively achieve these improvements in operational reliability during weather events requires significant advances in the following: the sensing of both weather conditions and resulting pavement conditions; the near-term forecasting of those conditions; new treatment options that enhance operational performance; traveler notification systems that both warn of imminent foul weather conditions and guide traveler actions in response to those expected conditions; and the measurement and utilization of the benefits that can be obtained from more effectively incorporating weather information into all aspects of roadway management and operations. Special Note: Perhaps this topic area, more than any of the other reliability improvements, requires coordination with outside groups such as the National Weather Service, as well as cooperation among operations, maintenance, safety, and design groups within transportation agencies. Substantial leveraging of research funds can be obtained by working with research efforts under way within these groups. Project 3-5.1: Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions 54

58 Objective: One of the most significant problems associated with identifying and responding to adverse weather conditions is understanding where and when adverse weather causes hazardous travel conditions and/or travel delays. Weather conditions change dramatically over time and from one location to another. The extensive geographic coverage of transportation facilities and constantly changing environmental conditions make the collection of up-to-date, location specific environmental data both difficult and expensive. The objective of this effort will be to improve the accuracy of current weather and pavement condition 8 measurements, while dramatically decreasing the cost of that data collection effort. Scope: This research effort will investigate various alternatives for cost effectively measuring weather conditions and pavement temperatures. The expected approach is to develop a robust, transferable system to combine four different approaches to collecting weather and pavement condition information. The four measurement techniques include use of a) location specific, in-ground sensors, b) mobile sensors placed on maintenance vehicles, c) remotely sensed data collected via satellite and/or low cost remotely piloted aerial vehicles, and d) thermal mapping. The research will determine the conditions under which each type of data collection technology is most cost efficient, and how to cost effectively combine the data from these disparate sources into a more comprehensive understanding of current conditions. This research effort should also support and cooperate with the sensor technology development undertaken by groups such as the National Weather Service (NWS), National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Consortium on Remote Sensing, and the FHWA Weather Management Program. Tasks: (a) Drawing on information from Topic 1 (literature review, scan of websites, etc.), this task will identify current practices for collecting weather and pavement condition information and research being conducted that can improve the availability of this information. This effort will be specifically aimed at developing an up-to-date understanding of the types of data that can be collected (precipitation, fog formation, snow accumulation, ice formation), the geographic coverage afforded by each technique, the frequency with which updates are available, and the costs for collecting those data. The various strengths and weaknesses of the four major data collection methodologies (point sources, vehicle mounted mobile sources, remote sensing from aerial sources, and thermal mapping) will then be summarized, as will the potential for improvement given emerging technologies. (b) The second task will be to develop a more complete understanding of how existing data collection efforts can be combined into a single source, where two or more data sources may provide conflicting measurements of the existing condition at a given location (e.g., a vehicle-based sensor and an aerial-based sensor report different temperatures for a location, which value 8 In this section, the term pavement condition refers only to the temperature of the pavement and its subgrade, as well as the composition of material currently on the pavement s surface, including the concentration of deicing chemicals and the presence of snow or ice. 55

59 should be used?) Starting points for this effort will be the FORETELL and Washington rweather projects, as well as various ongoing ITS data fusion efforts. (c) The third task will investigate the development of data formats, database structures, and communication protocols that facilitate and support the fusion of data from these disparate sources. Only by combining data from these sources will it be possible to obtain the geographic coverage, site-specific precision, and timeliness of data collection needed to significantly improve agency response to adverse weather conditions. This task, too, will start from existing FORETELL and rweather work, along with work performed by the NWS to create fused, multi-sensor databases. (d) The fourth major task will develop a reporting format and corresponding query response procedures that allow standardized access to the fused data sets developed in the second and third tasks. Standardized output (via XML or a similar technique) will allow a wide variety of analytical procedures to access, understand, and consequently use the available fused data resources. (d) The last task will be to produce the documentation that allows widespread use of the developed database structure, its formats, and the communications and query protocols. Relationship to Other Projects: The results of this project will feed all other efforts within Topic 3-5, as the fused database will provide the base knowledge required to make the decisions necessary to improve reliability. The project itself will build on early RWIS work performed as part of the FORETELL and rweather projects, but will both standardize and generalize those efforts so that they can be more widely adopted. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $1.5 million. Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product will be documentation that describes what weather and environmental data can be collected and at what cost. It will provide clear guidance on which data collection techniques should be used for particular conditions (e.g., mountainous terrain versus plains), and how to fuse data from multiple sources, since multi-source datasets, collected through the efforts of multiple agencies, are critical for reducing data collection costs. In addition, the project will develop a prototype customizable database that will allow any state to fuse weather and pavement condition data into a single data resource, regardless of the initial source of those data. The developed database structure will then allow access to those data for any set of authorized activities. Project 3-5.2: Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions Objective: While current weather and pavement condition information is needed to direct maintenance activities and operational decision making, having accurate shortterm forecasts of both weather and pavement conditions allows an operating agency to undertake preventative actions, pre-position its resources, and prioritize its 56

60 maintenance and operational actions to achieve maximum system reliability and cost efficiency. Scope: The proposed near-term forecasting research will focus on two different areas: support of improved near-term weather forecasting and forecasting of nearterm pavement conditions. Weather forecasts are needed at both the macro (region wide) and micro geographic scales. These forecasts are needed as inputs to pavement condition forecasts, since pavement condition is a function of existing and future environmental conditions. Considerable work is being done in this area by other agencies (notably the National Weather Service.) The F-SHRP weather forecasting research will focus on determining the appropriate role(s) for transportation agencies in support of these efforts. (Based on existing NWS research plans, it may also require funding of additional research aimed at forecasting localized conditions which are both hazardous and detrimental to transportation system reliability, such as fog formation or dust storms.) The second area of research will be the development of improved pavement condition forecasts, given current travel conditions and forecast weather conditions. This research will include improvement of ice or fog formation forecasts, as well as forecasts of other unsafe driving conditions. It will also seek to improve the ability to forecast concentrations of deicing chemicals, given their initial application rate and actual (or forecast) current and predicted environmental conditions. The objective is to provide better information for incorporation by decision support systems that provide guidance on the prioritization and use of limited agency resources. Tasks: (a) The project will identify the key weather elements that need to be forecast. (b) Drawing on information from Topic 1 (literature review, scan of websites, etc.), the project will identify ongoing research into meteorological forecasting at the geographic and temporal scales needed by transportation agencies. (c) On the basis of that research and the findings from existing RWIS efforts, the project will develop guidance on the appropriate role for transportation agencies at both the national and state levels in supporting the improvement of weather forecasts in timeframes and geographic scales required to meet transportation agency needs. (Potential support should include, but not be limited to, access to weather data collected by transportation agency devices, the funding of increased computing resources that allow forecasting to occur as needed by transportation agencies, and funding for development of improved forecasting algorithms. For example, improving the ability to forecast fog formation given data available at a ground-based weather station near a fog prone stretch of highway.) Specific attention should be paid to the differing roles transportation agencies may need to play when they operate facilities in areas with significant terrain versus areas where terrain plays a relatively modest role in creating micro-climates. An output of this research task should be guidelines (and model agreements) for inter-agency cooperation in the area of joint weather sensing and forecasting. 57

61 (d) The project will identify the pavement conditions that need to be forecast, the factors that affect those forecasts, and the data sources that can be collected and used to assist in making those forecasts. (e) Drawing on information from Topic 1 (literature review, scan of websites, etc.), Research Task and task (b) above, the project will identify potentially fruitful research approaches for forecasting pavement conditions and pavement chemical concentrations, given current weather conditions, the current status of pavement conditions, and forecasts of future weather conditions. (f) The project will develop and test approaches for forecasting pavement conditions and chemical concentrations. One possible approach uses fuzzy set control theory combined with a neural net algorithm, along with conventional forecasting approaches, to compare and adjust conventional forecasts on the basis of observed errors. This approach is specifically designed to learn and account for the site-specific effects that are not easily measured by area-wide environmental measurements and/or modeling. (These site-specific effects include such micro-climate variables as the effects of shading, wind cover, or the effects of vertical and horizontal roadway curvatures on water run-off rates.) When such approaches are used in addition to conventional forecasting algorithms, significant improvements in site-specific forecast accuracy may be possible. (g) If the tests are successful, the project will develop an implementation guide and software documentation that allow the forecasting process to be widely adopted around the country. (h) The project will produce a final report and procedure documentation for the tasks described above. Relationship to Other Projects: The database developed in Task will be a key input to the forecasting procedures developed, refined, and tested in this task. This research will also need to be closely coordinated with ongoing federal and state efforts to improve weather forecasts and to enhance winter maintenance activities and other weather related safety improvements, such as fog and dust storm warning systems. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $2.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This effort will produce several key outputs. The first key product will be improved forecasting algorithms. The second will be improved forecasts for weather and site-specific travel conditions. Dramatic improvement in the quality of forecasts for both weather events and resulting pavement conditions should allow much more efficient deployment of agency resources in response to weather events, and consequent improvement in transportation system reliability and safety, along with decreased resource utilization requirements. 58

62 Project 3-5.3: Use of Road Weather, Safety and Travel Reliability Data to Identify Ways to Improve Travel Time Reliability Objective: The objective of this effort is to combine weather information with travel reliability and safety data to create new analytical tools that identify the locations and causes of significant weather related safety and travel reliability problems. The intent is to provide better guidance for applying limited funds in ways that provide the greatest improvements to travel reliability. Scope: The project will develop tools and procedures to link weather information, safety data, operational (travel and travel reliability) data, and geometric data. Modern analytical techniques can then be applied to the combined data to identify problem locations, and the root causes of problems at those locations. This will allow for the design of appropriate improvements to mitigate or otherwise limit the frequency, significance, and duration of weather related delays and safety concerns. Tasks: (a) The first task will be to develop weather data archives specifically tailored to improve our understanding of weather s effects on travel reliability. The archive should be an extension of the data collected under Task Design of the data archive will depend on the availability of data and a review of potential analyses that can be performed with the data. (b) The second task will be to fuse the weather archives with travel reliability, roadway geometry, and safety data obtained from existing and new ITS sources. (c) The third task will be to use modern statistical and data mining techniques to identify the key weather, roadway, and safety related factors that cause or magnify delays during weather events. (d) The fourth task will be to develop reports that describe the interaction of the disparate variables that cause significant delays. This will lead to the development of counter-measures and mitigation strategies that will increase travel reliability. This task will also provide reliable estimates of the size and value of delays caused by adverse weather conditions at specific locations. (e) The final task will produce reports that describe the software developed, the analysis procedures used, and steps needed to obtain and analyze the data. Relationship to Other Projects: This project will combine the weather information collected in Task with travel reliability data collected as a result of Task and safety data already maintained by states. The results from the analyses performed with those data will help feed work such as that proposed in Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $1.5 million. Products, Benefits, and Implementation: Three major products/benefits will result from this research. The first product will be a model for a database and analysis process that allow the identification and prioritization of areas and features that cause unreliable travel during weather events. The second product will be the outcome of 59

63 those initial analyses, which may provide new insight into weather related delays and the improvements that should significantly limit the size and scope of those delays. The third product will be the calculation of actual delays caused by weather at the specific locations studied and a description of the costs of those delays to the public. Project 3-5.4: Development of Better Mitigation Options for Weather Events Objective: The objective of this project is to identify roadway design, operating, and maintenance practices that can reduce travel time reliability problems caused by weather events. Scope: A variety of methods are available for improving operations in adverse weather conditions. Some techniques are the product of currently practiced design treatments such as wider shoulders, larger drainage areas, and pavement markings and signs that can be used in areas identified as particularly susceptible to weather problems. Other techniques, such as variable speed limits, roadway illumination, and motorist information, are more oriented toward operations, and their benefits are less well understood. This task will evaluate the relative merits of these alternative approaches, as well as explore the potential for applying new technologies and/or operational approaches to achieve significant improvements in travel reliability and safety. Tasks: (a) The first task will be to search the available literature to develop a taxonomy of transportation agency responses to adverse weather conditions, with the goal of supporting the sharing and transfer of those techniques that can cost effectively increase travel reliability while improving safety. (b) The second task will be to solicit innovative new ideas and technologies (or new applications of existing technologies) that hold promise for improving travel reliability and safety during adverse weather events. New ideas include, but are not limited to, new decision support software, roadway clearance technologies, vehicle guidance technologies, and motorist information technologies. (c) A selected set of the ideas proposed in Task b above will then be funded for further development and testing. (d) The best techniques observed in Task a and the techniques with the greatest potential from Task c will then be evaluated to clearly identify the costs and benefits of their application. The evaluation will also identify the conditions required to make these techniques successful. (e) Implementation guidelines describing the best of the ideas studied in Task a and the most promising technologies developed in Task c will be written to support the expansion of these techniques. 60

64 Relationship to Other Projects: This project will draw on projects in topic areas 3-1 and 3-3. The research activity should be coordinated with projects in the Safety areas. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $2.5 million Products, Benefits and Implementation: This project looks to both encourage and empower the deployment of existing technologies and practices that enhance travel reliability in the face of adverse weather. It will also support the development of innovative new technologies that enhance operations during those events. The intent is to provide guidance on what technologies to deploy, as well as how to deploy them and under what conditions deployment make sense. Topic 3.6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurrent and Non- Recurrent Bottlenecks Topic Objective: This topic has the objective of improving highway design practice to mitigate the impact of recurrent and non-recurrent congestion. The focus is on two parts of the design process: capacity analysis, and facility design. (Forecasting demand is dealt with in Topic 3.2). Current highway design practice treats capacity as a constant unvarying number. The facility is designed to accommodate the predicted demand at a target level of service assuming a single value for the capacity of the facility. The designer in essence considers only recurrent congestion in the design (not recognizing that capacity will vary due to incidents). The designer has no information to evaluate the tradeoffs of providing excess capacity to accommodate non-recurrent congestion. In addition, designers do not currently have guidance on the incorporation of features to facilitate incident management and work zone management into the design. The incorporation of off-facility crash investigation sites and other features to support incident management can reduce the capacity impacts of non-recurrent congestion and the delays associated with it. Project 3-6.1: Identification and Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion Objective: To develop a list of promising facility design feature and evaluate their cost-effectiveness for reducing delays dues to incidents, work zones, weather, special events, and other causes of non-recurrent congestion. Scope: There are many design features that have been tried out in different urban areas, which, if incorporated into our standard design practices, could potentially reduce non-recurrent delay. Crash investigation sites, pull-outs, median crossovers, and paved shoulder bypass lanes could speed up the arrival of emergency equipment at an incident or reduce the time it takes to re-open the travel lanes on a facility. There are also design features, such as median crossovers and wide paved shoulders that can make it possible to keep more traffic moving in work zones by enabling the use of contraflow lanes. There are also facility design features that can reduce the delays due to weather and special events. Many of these features are not currently included in standard highway design practices because of their perceived costs and the lack of quantified information on the cost savings to the facility operator and the general public over the life of the project. The problem is to identify the full range of 61

65 these features, develop more cost-effective designs for these features, and to quantify their cost effectiveness. Tasks: (a) Best Practice Review. Identify best practices in United States, Europe, and Asia to assemble a list of potential non-recurrent congestion design features for freeways and non-freeways. Review literature to inventory any available information on the cost effectiveness of these design features. (b) Generate Design Features. Form focus group(s) of emergency management personnel, construction experts, and highway design experts (could be separate groups) to review current design practices and brain-storm list of possible design features to reduce delays due to incidents, work zones, weather, special events, and other causes of non-recurrent congestion. Such features might include: pullouts, enforcement areas, wide paved shoulders that can serve as emergency equipment bypass lanes, flexible median breaks, chain check areas, snow and salt storage areas, crash investigation sites, video surveillance, call boxes, street lighting. Separate design features concepts should be developed for urban freeway, rural freeway, rural highway, and urban arterial street facilities. Different terrain types should be considered as well: level, rolling hills, mountainous. Different climates should be considered: Arctic, Subarctic, Temperate, subtropical, and tropical. The measures should address needs and conditions in Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Continental United States. The groups should also consider highway design features that eliminate sharp changes in horizontal and vertical alignment which could increase the stability of traffic flow as it approaches capacity. This could include removing sharp curves, enhancing visibility, channelizing traffic flow more effectively, reducing speeds (calming). (c) Refine Designs: Refine the design features generated by the focus groups. Combine into functional alternatives according to likely range of construction/maintenance/operation cost (High, medium, low) and local level of on-going investment in traffic congestion management. (High construction cost features are more likely to be cost effective in areas where there already is or will be a high level of investment in traffic management systems, such as freeway service patrols.) (d) Prototype Designs: Prepare prototypical conceptual designs for each design group alternative. These prototype designs will consist of plans and crosssections with approximate dimensions so that quantity estimates can be made for cost estimation purposes. A range of right-of-way widths, soil conditions, climate conditions, and heavy vehicle volumes typical of urban areas in the United States will be assumed for the purpose of developing prototypical designs. Since there are a large number of possible combinations of traffic, soil, and climate conditions, 6 to 10 cities in the US will be selected that adequately span the range of possible US conditions. The prototypical 62

66 designs and cost estimates will then be prepared for projects in those example cities. (e) Cost Estimate: Estimate impact on construction cost ranges of new facility for each design group alternative and each example city. Estimate range of costs to retrofit features onto an existing facility for two alternative conditions: sufficient right of way, insufficient right of way. The cost ranges will reflect likely ranges in traffic conditions, soil conditions, and climate conditions for the example cities in the United States. (f) Estimate Effectiveness: Estimate the likely effectiveness of each investment level of design improvements at reducing delay for different levels of agency commitment to emergency management services, maintenance, and operations. (e.g. a design feature that supports incident management will probably have a much greater effectiveness if an aggressive incident management program will be in place to use it). The effectiveness should also be estimated for different demand conditions (volume/capacity ratio is regularly greater than 1.0, v/c ratio is regularly near capacity, v/c ratio is regularly under capacity), different terrain types (flat rolling, mountain), different heavy vehicle volumes, and different climates (arctic, subarctic, temperate, subtropic, and tropic) for the example cities selected in the previous tasks. (g) Prepare guidebook on the cost-effectiveness of different design improvements for reducing non-recurrent congestion for new projects and for retrofitting existing facilities under different prevailing demand conditions, different climates, different types of terrain, and different levels of incident management. Relationship to Other Projects: None identified. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 48 months; $3.5 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research produces information that can be used to update highway design practices, which will result in savings in nonrecurrent delay. The key implementation step is to get the results of this research into the national guidebooks for highway design practice. Project 3-6.2: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual Methods Objective: To develop data on the impacts of the differing causes of non-recurrent congestion on highway capacity and to incorporate this information into the performance measure and level of service estimation procedures contained in the Highway Capacity Manual. Scope: The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) is the main tool of designers for determining the appropriate size of a facility to meet future demand levels. The HCM however currently provides the results of a limited number of primarily foreign studies on the impacts of weather and work zones on freeway capacity. No 63

67 information is provided at all for other facility types or for other causes of nonrecurrent congestion. The methodologies contained in the HCM for predicting delay, speed, queuing, and other performance measures for alternative highway designs are not currently sensitive to incident management techniques and other operation/design measures for reducing non-recurrent congestion. Tasks: (a) Literature Review: Conduct review of literature on the frequency and capacity impacts of work zones, weather, collisions, breakdowns, debris, and other incidents on highway capacity and how current and future incident management, work zone management and other measures for reducing nonrecurrent congestion can reduce the impact of non-recurrent congestion on facility delay, speed, queuing, and capacity. (b) Data Collection: Supplement the published literature with data collection from selected instrumented test sections around the United States for a variety of freeway, conventional highway, and urban street facilities. Collect data on frequency, duration, and capacity impacts of causes of non-recurrent congestion (collectively called events ) and how various design and management strategies can reduce the effects of non-recurrent congestion. (c) Develop methodology for predicting probability of occurrence and duration of events that are essentially random (incidents, weather, etc.) occurring during peak seasons, peak hours and off-peak hours during the year as a function of the facility type, area type, terrain type, and other characteristics of the facility and its environs. The methodology should be sensitive to changes in operational strategies (e.g. incident management, work zone design, etc.) (d) Develop methodology for estimating capacity reduction as a function of event type and duration by season of year, day of week, hour of day. (e) Develop methodology for predicting impacts on speed and delay of each event type that incorporates the probability of occurrence and duration of each event type. (f) Develop methodology for predicting the effectiveness of various design and management strategies for reducing non-recurrent congestion. (g) Prepare draft sections on the effect of non-recurrent congestion and the effectiveness of non-recurrent congestion management strategies for the urban arterials, signalized intersections, unsignalized intersections, freeway basic sections, freeway merge sections, freeway weaving sections, and freeway facilities chapters of the Highway Capacity Manual. (h) Final Report (brief summary of study procedures and results) Relationship to Other Projects: Topic 3-10 projects provide valuable input to this research project. Research project provides valuable input to this project by identifying potential design feature options for reducing non-recurrent congestion. The HCM then needs to address the analysis of those features. Research Project

68 provides valuable input to this project on the prediction of non-recurrent congestion as a function of recurrent congestion. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $2.75 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research produces updated sections to the premier highway operations analysis document in the U.S., the Highway Capacity Manual. Project 3-6.3: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design Objective: To develop design guidance on the facility design features that support the reduction of delays due to incidents, work zones, weather, and other causes of non-recurrent congestion and get this guidance into standard practice. Scope: The AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design of Highways and Streets is the main document used by state DOT s and other public agencies to develop design guidelines for freeways, conventional highways, and urban streets. This book provides guidance on the appropriate dimensions of highway facilities. However, this book does not currently identify nor provide guidance on the placement and dimensions of facilities designed to support incident management and to reduce the impacts of work zones. Tasks: (a) Review results of Project and identify cost-effective design features for incorporation in AASHTO Policy Guide. (b) Develop information on the identification of design hour volumes to reflect non-recurrent congestion effects. (c) Produce Interim report identifying potential design features from Research Project for reducing non-recurrent congestion and assessing their relative cost-effectiveness. Take into account context sensitive solutions. (d) Review Interim report with appropriate AASHTO panels and obtain comments. (e) Develop prototype designs, dimensions, and cross-sections for recommended design features per AASHTO guidance. (f) Prepare draft sections for AASHTO Policy Guide on design features for reducing non-recurrent congestion. Circulate to relevant AASHTO panels for review and comment. (g) Final Report Relationship to Other Projects: Topic 3-10 projects and Research Project provide valuable input to this research project. Research Project 3.6-2, HCM Update, provides valuable analytical tools for quantifying the cost-effectiveness of the proposed design changes. 65

69 Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $2.75 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research produces a policy guide for the design of facility features to enhance incident management and work zone management. Project 3-6.4: The Relationship between Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Congestion Objective: To determine the synergistic relationships between recurrent and nonrecurrent congestion and how the benefits of measures to reduce non-recurrent congestion are increased when recurrent congestion is present. Scope: It is well known that an incident occurring during rush hour will have much greater impacts on delay than an incident occurring during off-peak hours. The benefits of incident management strategies and other strategies to reduce nonrecurrent congestion will vary greatly depending upon the time of day when they occur. It is important therefore to take this effect into account in the estimation of benefits of all of the other research program projects to reduce non-recurrent congestion Tasks: (a) Select Analysis Scenarios. There are an infinite number of possible combinations of incidents, weather, work zones, special events and recurrent congestion. This task needs to take these infinite possibilities and condense them to a set of reasonable and useful scenarios for considering the synergistic effects of recurrent and non-recurrent congestion. One approach for bounding the problem is to select a set of a dozen or so prototypical cities, and facility types for the analysis. The facility types would include freeways and non-freeways. Cities would be selected for a broad range of climatological types. Each combination of facility type in each city is then analyzed under a series of varying demand conditions. Each specific combination of facility type, city, and demand condition becomes an analysis scenario. (b) Gather data for prototype sections. Data would include design geometry, signal control parameters (if applicable), and demand. Model calibration data (travel time or speed) would be gathered as well. (c) Select analytical tool. A simulation model or other traffic operations model will be selected for predicting delay under various recurrent and nonrecurrent congestion scenarios. (d) Calibration. The analytical tool will be calibrated against field data for each prototype test facility. (e) Perform Experiments. The analytical tool will be run under different demand and incident/work zone/weather scenarios to estimate delay on each prototype section under the different scenarios of recurrent and non-recurrent conditions. 66

70 (f) Evaluation: The experimental results will be reviewed and evaluated. Summary statistics and linear/non-linear relationships will be developed for predicting how non-recurrent congestion is a function of recurrent congestion under different scenarios combining climatological, incident management, and other factors. (g) Final Report: Relationship to Other Projects: Topic 3-1, and 3.2 projects provide valuable input to this research project. In particular, Project 3.2-2, Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability is closely aligned with this study. Project provides the data to conduct this research, and in turn, this study will provide the analytic relationships necessary in the long-term for monitoring purposes. This project provides input to 3.6-2, HCM Update. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 month; $1 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research produces a methodology for estimating non-recurrent congestion under varying recurrent congestion levels. The results will be useful to research project 3.6.2, HCM update. Topic 3-7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions Topic Objective: Drivers either over-react or under-react to unusual environmental and roadway conditions, especially in bottleneck areas. For example, drivers will under-react to poor visibility conditions (like fog or dust storms), driving too fast and increasing the chance of causing massive chain reaction collisions. Drivers will over-react to interesting conditions on the roadside (like activity in work zones, emergency vehicles on the opposite direction of the freeway, etc.), slowing down to give themselves more time to take in the show. The purpose of the research recommended under this topic is to identify undesirable driver behaviors that increase non-recurrent congestion, the conditions that cause them, and measures for modifying these behaviors to reduce delay and congestion. Project 3-7.1: Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues Objective: To identify and quantify the causes and effects of inappropriate driver response in the bottleneck conditions caused by: adverse weather conditions, roadside activity, incident scenes, and traffic queues. Scope: Drivers often fail to respond appropriately to adverse weather conditions or activity along the roadside (such as work zone activity, and emergency vehicle responses). They either fail to slow down sufficiently to correct for the poorer visibility and stopping distance conditions under poor weather or when in a work zone, or they slow down too much to get a look at interesting construction or emergency response activity not on the roadway (rubbernecking). Secondary crashes 67

71 can often be traced to driver inattention at incident scenes or in queues caused by a primary incident. Tasks: (a) Literature Review: Obtain and review published literature on the rubbernecking effects of work zones and emergency vehicle responses. Review literature on the response of drivers to adverse weather conditions (speed changes and headway changes). Review psychological literature on the factors affecting human attention to tasks. (b) Data Collection: Collect data on the frequency with which adverse weather and roadside distractions occur and measure their impact on facility capacity and delay on an annual vehicle miles traveled basis. For this Task, there is a great opportunity for synergy with other data collection efforts. Therefore, the contractor should work cooperatively with ongoing NHTSA studies of driver behavior as well as any relevant studies under the Safety area of F- SHRP to collect field driver behavior data. It is expected that some project funds may be leveraged for this effort. (c) Develop experimental program for identifying factors affecting driver response to changes in the driving environment. This may consist of driving simulators with various experimental protocols. One factor that should be expressly considered is the influence on age on driver performance under the study conditions. (d) Perform simulator experiments of visual and aural factors affecting driver response to weather, work zones, incident scenes, queues, and other roadside distractions. To the extent possible opposite direction rubbernecking (drivers traveling in the direction not directly affected by the roadway condition) should be studied. (e) Final Report quantifying the factors affecting driver attention to the driving task under adverse weather conditions and/or roadside distractions, their impacts on facility capacity and operations, and the desired response of drivers to these situations. Relationship to Other Projects: Must precede Research Project Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $3 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research will produce an enhanced understanding of the factors that cause inappropriate driver and a quantification of their impacts on facility operations and capacity. Project 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues Objective: To identify and quantify the potential effectiveness of various measures to reduce inappropriate driver response to adverse weather conditions and roadside activity. 68

72 Scope: Drivers often fail to respond appropriately to adverse weather conditions or activity along the roadside (such as work zone activity, and emergency vehicle responses). They either fail to slow down sufficiently to correct for the poorer visibility and stopping distance conditions under poor weather or when in a work zone, or they slow down too much to get a look at interesting construction or emergency response activity not on the roadway (rubbernecking). Tasks: (a) Literature Review: Review literature on countermeasures that have been tried to reduce inappropriate driver response to adverse weather and roadside distractions. (b) State of the Practice Review: Identify agencies employing advanced measures to improve driver response to adverse weather and roadside distractions and interview them to determine the cost and effectiveness of the measures employed. (c) Develop potential program of measures, such as driver education, training, changeable message signs, in-vehicle information systems, vehicle guidance, and visual barriers. (d) Develop experimental program for measuring the effectiveness of proposed measures to improve driver response. This may consist of driving simulators with various experimental protocols. Include in the simulator experiments to include the effects of potential countermeasures such as queue warnings, variable speed limits, and lane control. (e) Perform simulator experiments of proposed counter-measures. (f) Final Report quantifying the cost-effectiveness of measures to improve driver performance under adverse weather conditions and roadside distractions. Relationship to Other Projects: Must follow Research Project Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $3 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: This research will produce a compendium of measures for reducing inappropriate driver response to weather and roadside conditions. Project 3-7.3: Improving Merging Behavior on Freeways Objective: This research will perform an international scan for best practices in encouraging smoother merging behavior at lane closures, lane drops, at entrance ramps, and when changing lanes. Field research will be undertaken to assess the effectiveness of various candidate strategies to improve merging effectiveness. Scope: Secondary incidents occur at the tail of the queue as freeway drivers reach it unexpectedly and are unable to decelerate quickly enough. Recent research has indicated that there are several advantages to encouraging drivers approaching a lane closure to queue in all lanes and then take turns at the merge point: it shortens the 69

73 queue, increasing safety; it diminishes speed differentials within the queue, also improving safety; it allows for smoother merging, improving both capacity and safety; and it lessens driving stress, because there are behavioral guidelines established. However, this strategy has not been thoroughly tested, especially under congested urban conditions. Research on the causes of driver stress in congestion identified a driving behavior that has an enraging effect on the most normal driver: perceived queue-jumping at freeway lane drops. Signs telling of a closing lane result in polarizing drivers: approximately 75% report moving quickly into the lane(s) that continue through the constriction, while the other 25% intentionally drive in the closing lane, moving faster since most vehicles have vacated it, and cutting in at the head of the queue. Both sets of drivers are convinced they are driving correctly. In fact, there appears to be some reason to believe that driving in all lanes and zipping at the merge point results in higher capacity and lower driving stress for both sets of believers. Research needs to be done to determine the range of applicability and means of encouraging this behavior. Tasks: (a) Survey nationally and internationally the use of the Late Merge or Zipper Merge to determine best practices, drawbacks and limits to applicability, particularly in urban areas. (b) Test feasibility for lane closures on multilane freeways in urban areas, with regard to appropriate signing, overhead lane control, pavement markings, including evaluation of lane changing, lane use, speed differentials, and merging capacities. Also include in the study a driver education program aimed at improving merging behavior. (c) Evaluate safety impacts as well as the capacity (throughput) impacts. (d) Develop a technical report presenting evaluation results. (e) Identify means of re-educating drivers to improve merging behavior, if this strategy is determined to be widely applicable. (f) Develop materials for public outreach. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $3 million Products, Benefits, Implementation: Technical evaluation of optimal merging strategies will be definitive in the report. Benefits will be confidence in implementation of positive traffic control strategies to diminish uncertainty and irritation in congested driving environments, as well as improve safety and throughput. 70

74 Topic 3-8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability Topic Objective: Providing timely and accurate traveler information in terms of delay expectations and alternative routes is an effective means of reducing delay to travelers. Traveler information is particularly effective for addressing the out-of-the-ordinary events characterized by the sources of unreliable travel times (e.g., traffic incidents, work zones, weather, and special events.) However, a number of problems have hindered the advancement of traveler information strategies and products beyond a rudimentary form. Among these problems are: data quality; system coverage; integration of data sources (e.g., roadway monitoring, incident, and work zones); currency of data (e.g., providing what happened 15 minutes ago); market penetration; and information delivery devices. There is much debate in the transportation profession concerning the impact that traveler information has on system performance, including reliability. Past studies of traveler information have largely been inclusive due: (1) to the difficulty in analyzing the effects at the system level; (2) limited numbers of participants; (3) incomplete or dated traveler information; and (4) ineffective information delivery devices. To deal with this uncertainty, the F-SHRP Reliability Research Program is recommending that a precursor study (Project 3-8.1) be done prior to the remaining research to determine if exploring traveler information further would be fruitful. If it is found not be to a productive area, the project budgets for the remaining research can be re-programmed. Project 3-8.1: Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems Objective: To quantify the system performance effects (total delay and travel time reliability) of providing traveler information through a variety of media. Scope: Despite several evaluations of deployed traveler information systems in the U.S. and in other countries, little is known about the impact that traveler information has on travel patterns and congestion levels. Much of the current information comes from simulations based on limited data and assumptions about how travelers respond to information. There is a strong need to determine what the true impact traveler information has on congestion levels and the associated reliability of travel times to determine if the public sector should be actively engaged in providing traveler information as an Operations strategy. This study will involve extensive field evaluations of already-deployed traveler information systems. Because traveler information disseminated in several forms, it is anticipated that three levels will be studied: 1. Dynamic message signs (DMS) 2. Highway advisory radio (HAR) 3. Traveler-based devices (hand-held, in-vehicle, or both) NOTE: This project will entail extensive data collection both in terms of measuring corridor and system-level traffic conditions on specific days and tracking the patterns of users. It is expected that the project will leverage other data collection efforts underway, including safety-related studies of driver behavior being conducted by NHTSA and the F-SHRP Safety area. It is also expected that the project will involve the private sector to some degree, especially Information Service Providers. The 71

75 involvement of automakers may also be appropriate if they are pursuing the travel information market and their systems are not proprietary. The study will also expand on current efforts to quantify the benefits and other impacts of traveler information systems. These include a series of evaluations (conducted by the ITS Joint Program Office) of traffic information web sites in San Antonio, Seattle, Phoenix, and Los Angeles to assess (1) the impact of traffic information on traveler decisions, (2) market penetration of ATIS services (and related customer segmentation), and (3) customer satisfaction with online traffic information services. This effort also includes several surveys using the Puget Sound Regional Council Travel Panel (1) to measure use and impact of advanced traffic and transit information services on the greater Seattle population over time, and (2) to develop market segments for advanced traffic information service customers according to their use of information and technology. It is also expected that transportation agencies will be actively involved, especially those that are currently disseminating traveler information. Their cooperation may be required if any experiments are to be conducted for the project (e.g., not providing traveler information on selected days as means for comparison). Tasks (a) Conduct literature review of past studies dealing with traveler information, especially those that try to gauge the system-level travel time impacts. (b) Identify two metropolitan areas and one statewide system for in-depth study. The statewide system may be based on a public 511 system. The metropolitan systems to be studied can include any combination of public/private relationships for the examination of traveler-based devices, but it is expected that DMS and HAR systems will be exclusively publicly-operated. Coordination with FHWA-sponsored model deployments or field operational tests dealing with travel information is essential, and it is expected that some project funds will be leveraged for data collection. Key factors in selecting areas for study are: The existence of other relevant research projects in the area that may leveraged for data collection, particularly studies of driver behavior and tracking Number of current users of traveler information services The amount of surveillance coverage being used to generate traffic condition data (including travel times, incidents, weather conditions, and work zones) The existence of surveillance data on primary alternate routes (e.g., signalized arterials running parallel to freeways) The freshness of the data being transmitted to users Market penetration of advanced information delivery devices 72

76 Level of congestion in the area (metropolitan areas should have a substantial amount of congestion) Beyond traffic incidents, the expected number of adverse weather events, work zones, and special events that affect traffic conditions (c) Develop a study design for identifying the impacts that disseminating traveler information has on specific corridors and systemwide travel conditions. The study design should include: Detailed tracking of traveler information users through the use of GPS devices or through travel diaries Specific experiments that should be undertaken to cull out the effects of traveler information Monitoring of traffic conditions through available surveillance data and any supplemental data that needs to be collected, especially on primary alternate routes that are not covered by electronic traffic monitoring Microscopic traffic simulation experiments (if deemed appropriate) using the data collected for the study (c) Implement data collection; run experiments. It is expected that the data collection phase will be months long. (d) Analyze data collected for the study. (e) Produce Final Report. Relationships to other projects or F-SHRP areas: As mentioned the data collection for this project may be combined with other efforts including those in the F-SHRP Safety area. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $3 million Products and benefits: The results of this project will determine if the remainder of the projects under this Topic should be undertaken. That is, F-SHRP will determine, based on the study s findings, whether sufficient payoff exists in traveler information (from a public sector viewpoint) to warrant further investment in research. In addition, the results of the study can be combined with those of Project to provide practitioners with evaluation relationships for estimating the impacts of proposed traveler information deployments. Project 3-8.2: Increasing the Credibility of Travel Time Predictions with Travelers Objective: To identify the human factors requirements necessary to provide travelers with information that is timely, understandable and credible. Many events that impact travel times in a transportation system are not unexpected (work zones, special events, etc.). Travelers, armed with information about how the events will impact future travel times, can make adjustments to their trip choices to 73

77 accommodate these changes. Ultimately, this information reduces the unknown variability in their travel times as well. The extent to which both of these results are achieved depend directly on whether the information reaches the traveler, is understood, and is considered credible. Scope: Investigation of the influences of information accuracy and credibility upon traveler decisions and behaviors will most likely require more advanced theoretical constructs regarding decision-making behavior than have typically been used in operational settings. The fact that existing transportation systems are highly volatile and difficult to control from an experimental standpoint suggests that laboratory analyses will most likely be the primary investigative approach utilized. Tasks: (a) Determine how accurate and precise predictions of travel times or travel time changes due to future predicted events need to be in order to affect interpretation and behavioral changes. (b) Determine how predicted travel times or travel time changes for future events should be conveyed to travelers to facilitate credibility and behavioral responses (information format issues, how far in advance information is required to affect a change from unexpected travel time variability to expected travel time increase). (c) Determine the appropriate audience(s) for predicted travel time information (most likely differing depending on the day and time of day that such predicted events occur), and determine how to best provide the information to those audiences (technologies). Relationships to other projects or F-SHRP areas: The success to which this research effort can be successful is dependent upon the parallel effort (described elsewhere) to better estimate the effects of predictable events upon travel times. The fact that many of the predictable events are due to private-sector roadway construction and maintenance activities implies a direct relationship to the F-SHRP focus area on accelerating infrastructure renewal. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $1 million Products and benefits: The results of the results will have immediate benefit to travelers, both in terms of improved decision-making capabilities (resulting in improved efficiency and reduced loss production time currently associated with travel time variability) and in improved public sentiment for transportation agencies who are providing this information. Implementation of the products will occur through their adoption and application in the various traveler information sources (both public and private) that exist in a given region. 74

78 Project 3-8.3: Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market and Its Impact on Public Sector Operational Strategies Objective: To determine how the traveler information market is evolving in terms of technologies, private sector provision of data, market penetration, etc., and to define the public sector s roles and expectations for traveler information as a means of Operational response. Scope: Advanced Traveler Information Systems are entering their second decade of existence as integral components of urban and rural transportation systems around the United States. ATIS technologies and applications will continue to evolve and improve. The private sector continues to develop technologies that promise to bring better traveler information faster, more cheaply and more conveniently to the public. Public agencies will continue to invest in these systems, and the public will clearly benefit from these investments. For the public sector, ATIS is a beneficial and relatively low-cost reuse of information needed to manage and operate complex transportation systems. Freeway incident management systems for example, reduce emergency response times, potentially saving lives and decreasing the severity of accidents but the same information can also help reduce non-recurrent congestion impacts. Timely and accurate traveler information allows individuals and businesses to avoid congestion, which saves travel time, increases safety and reduces stress. This results in a more efficiently and effectively utilized transportation system, which benefits the agencies that manage the transportation system. This project will determine what the potential is for ATIS in improving travel time reliability, how information should be collected and disseminated, and most importantly, what roles the public and private sectors should have in the next level of ATIS deployments. The study will also build on the recent 511 initiatives, which are expected to affect the traveler information market over the next few years. It also will examine the potentially dominant role of auto makers in providing traveler information, either independently or in conjunction with the public sector. Tasks: (a) Review current and past ATIS deployments. Examine their technical and institutional features. (b) Examine current and propose future business models, which describe the roles and responsibilities among partners in the ATIS enterprise. Business models should include all aspects of ATIS operations including collection, fusion, and dissemination of data. (c) Explore both the state-of-the-practice in the approaches and technologies used in data collection, fusion and dissemination, as well as emerging technologies that offer promise. (d) Examine the emerging role of automakers and their services (e.g., OnStar) in providing traveler information. 75

79 (e) Conduct an assessment of the near-term (through 2010) of the ATIS market and demand for ATIS services. Estimate the public sector s financial involvement in the various business models defined. (f) Determine the feasibility of conducting a field test in a metropolitan area that incorporates all of the aspects of the ATIS market studies in previous tasks. Evaluate the area s potential in terms of deployed infrastructure (both surveillance and information delivery) and maturity of the traveler information market. (g) Design the field test, including the experimental design and evaluation procedures. The field test is expected to be designed as a joint public-private partnership. (h) Evaluate and report on the results of the field test. Revise the operational model for future ATIS deployments. Relationship to Other Projects: This project is closely tied to other projects under this Topic. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 24 months; $2 million ($1 million for separate funding of the field test). Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The field test will lead to a model of deploying ATIS in the near-term. Project 3-8.4: Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems Objective: The objective is to provide guidance to transportation agencies and information service providers in fusing, packaging, and presenting information on traffic, weather, incidents and work zones that are affecting travel conditions. Scope: Traveler information systems in their current state are somewhat disjointed, in that oftentimes the various sources of data (e.g., freeway traffic conditions, arterial traffic conditions, work zones, incidents) are maintained and disseminated by different agencies through different channels. Thus the scope of this project will focus on the fusion of multi-source data that is relevant to traveler information systems. Both planned and unplanned events will be considered. A key constraint to this effort is the recognition that better information about system conditions will likely affect traveler trip choices. Changes in trip choices, in turn, will affect the accuracy of predictions regarding the impacts of these events upon travel times. The extent to which this symbiotic relationship (or its result) can be effectively estimated will significantly influence the level of success of this effort. Tasks: (a) Review current practices for data fusion and dissemination in traveler information systems. Pay particular attention to coordination activities between highway and other modes of travel. 76

80 (b) Investigate existing and potential sources of traveler information and document the relative cost and ease of collecting such data. Include all data that could possibly have an influence on travel behavior in terms of route choice, departure choice, mode choice, destination choice, and trip postponement. Special attention should be paid to extreme events such as weather and evacuations. Examples of data include: current and expected highway system conditions; weather conditions; route guidance; transit opportunities; current transit activity; and special events. Also investigate dissemination methods and technologies; consider both wire and wireless formats for dissemination. (c) Review previous survey research or conduct additional survey research to ascertain and prioritize data needs for traveler information. (d) Determine effective methods of using the data identified in previous Tasks to predict and communicate the impact of these events on both present and future travel times. This may involve modifications of existing predictive travel behavior tools, and the linking these modified tools to real-time data (i.e., hardware-in-the-loop simulation) to continuously calibrate and validate predictions. It may also include the development of historical databases that capture the relationship between event impacts, information availability, and traveler trip choice changes. (e) Recommend data fusion practices to collect, merge, and present relevant data in traveler information systems. Develop a detailed system architecture for implementing the recommended data fusion practices. (f) Investigate new technologies for disseminating traveler information, such as 511, Radio Data System Traffic Messaging Channel (RDS-TMC), or new in-car communication systems. Determine the potential (and likely) reach of these new technologies and the cost of providing information via them. (g) Develop education and training material to improve traveler response to adverse weather conditions. This involves developing material to both inform the public of newly deployed traveler information services, help them use those services, and train them to make better traveling decisions based on those services. Relationships to other projects or F-SHRP areas: This project will draw upon the findings of a previous project within this topic area ( Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market ). There are also several other projects that will be addressing specific data sources, such as incident data, predictive travel time data, work zone data, etc. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $2 million Products and benefits: The product is a report that provides guidance on data fusion practices. Given this guidance, transportation agencies and information service providers may be better equipped to provide a more comprehensive and usercentered view of travel conditions for their particular route or commute. 77

81 Topic 3-9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Topic Objective: There are a variety of operating strategies that can mitigate congestion problems caused by disrupted traffic flows. The disruptions might be planned actions by transportation agencies maintenance or construction activity or they might include unplanned events such as weather or crashes. Many of these ideas are not innovative, but their deployment is nonetheless sporadic and uneven. The research effort will examine typical barriers to implementation and identify good practices. The project tasks will examine the techniques for changing traffic control, operations procedures and other traffic control elements. Project 3-9.1: Implementation of Alternative Traffic Operation Strategies Objective: This project will seek to identify the good practices and the methods used to move them to implemented strategies emphasizing the reliability improvements that can be achieved. Scope: Using traffic control devices and different operation plans to gain improvements in travel conditions are relatively widely used strategies. Many areas, however, only take advantage of these strategies in relatively major or crisis events, or they only use a few of the many potential strategies. The urban areas where these are more fully deployed have an operations focus, and many have developed institutional structures and public expectations that differ from other cities. Tasks: (a) Use the literature review and scan of websites from Topic 1 to identify promising traffic control or alternative equipment deployment strategies. These should also include the aspects of the institutional structure that encourages or mandates each strategy. Also identify barriers to implementation. (b) Use information and experiences from Task (a) to identify a set of best practices for a set of significant strategies (some examples follow). Information should include identifying the situations or events for deployment, and any situations that should be avoided. Examples of significant strategies include the following. (Note that strategies related to incident scene and queue management are covered in Project ) 1. traffic signal re-timing in response to weather and other extreme events 2. patrol officer deployment as traffic control 3. implementation of communication plans for interagency cooperation 4. roadway or ramp closure or reversal 5. variable speed limits 6. incident management equipment deployment (both predeployment of equipment and matching appropriate equipment to the needed response) 78

82 7. pre-planned diversion plans (both temporary and permanent) 8. alternate route guidance, especially considering truck and hazardous material restrictions 9. contracting methods to ensure operations and maintenance coordination (including incentives, inspection, and enforcement activities related to contractor performance) (c) Identify the potential benefits from implementation of each type of strategy. This can include travel time reliability, travel time savings, energy or emissions savings, crash reductions and other benefits. (d) Develop field tests of each strategy identified in Task (b) in conjunction with transportation agencies (e) Conduct field tests (f) Produce a final report with a user s guide or best practices manual. Relationship to Other Projects: This project will relate to projects in Topics 3-2, 3-6, and 3-7 as well as projects in the Renewal and Safety F-SHRP programs. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 48 months; $4 million Products, Benefits, and Implementation: The product is a report that will describe ideal deployment strategies and situations, the institutional structures needed to make them happen and the benefits that can be derived from them. Project 3-9.2: Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques Objective: To make improvements in the way in which incident scenes are responded to and managed by police, fire, emergency management and transportation personnel. Scope: Incident scenes can be confusing and dangerous places, for both motorists and responders. The situation is compounded by the fact that multiple agencies are involved with responding to traffic incidents, particularly major ones. It is imperative that as response to an incident progresses, safety and positive guidance are both enhanced. This is a function of the details of how the incident scene is managed, both in terms of what actions responders take and traffic control. In addition, safety concerns must be balanced against the need to clear the scene or to optimize traffic control (e.g., transport of victims, safety of responders, fatal crash investigations). This project will focus on all of these issues. Tasks: (a) Working with incident responders, develop a checklist of actions taken by responders during the course of five types of incidents: (1) lane-blocking incidents involving a noninjury crash or disabled vehicle, (2) crashes involving multiple severe injuries (no fatalities), (3) crashes involving one or more fatalities, (4) crashes involving fuel spills from large trucks, (5) crashes involving the release of hazardous cargo from large trucks, and (6) crashes 79

83 involving the release of nonhazardous cargo. Include in the checklist such actions as establishing on-scene command chains, positioning of vehicles, traffic control, first responders actions, and data collection Pay particular attention to the sequence of actions undertaken. (b) For each item in the checklist, propose one or more techniques that will improve the way in which the action can be undertaken more efficiently. Consider both the effect on total clearance times and responder safety. Also consider the implementation of alternative incident command systems for different situations. For each technique, estimate the amount of time and personnel needed to undertake it. (c) Working with incident management personnel from three metropolitan areas and one rural area, review the proposed techniques. Identify techniques that are considered to be too onerous on responders either in terms of time or costs. (d) Based on the review in Task (c), develop standard protocols for managing incident scenes for each type of incident. Identify potential liability concerns with the protocol and the necessary steps to overcome them. (e) Working with one metropolitan incident management program, institute the new protocols. Work with the area to ensure the protocols are correctly applied. (f) Evaluate the effectiveness of the new protocols instituted in Task (e). (g) Develop a training program for getting the protocols into everyday practice. Include stand-alone training aids for incident responders. Relationships to other projects or F-SHRP areas: Project is very closely related but focuses on technologies rather than procedures. Projects and are somewhat related. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $1.8 million Products and benefits: The main product of this research is the training program built around the recommended protocols for managing incident scenes. The benefits of instituting the protocols will be reduced incident durations, improved responder safety, and reduced secondary crashes. Project 3-9.3: Simulation and Gaming Tools for Traffic Incident Response Objectives: (1) Develop a graphical simulation model, which may incorporate a core simulation model such as CORSIM of VISSIM that can be used to portray the various events that occur during the occurrence and response to incidents, and (2) from the knowledge base constructed for the simulation, develop and expert system that could be used as a tool for incident responders. Scope: Using real world data, typical incidents occurring in queue backups on freeways should be categorized for severity, and probabilities developed for each 80

84 type. These tools, simulation and probability, can be developed into a gaming tool for use in incident management workshops for responders. Key incident events will be identified, including alternative forms of response and their consequences, for inclusion into a simulation/gaming tool. The final tool will be capable of simulating multiple types of incidents, including extreme ones. The effects of choices made by responders, including the type and duration of their response, will affect the sequence of events in the tool. (The proposed tool will follow the logic of the computer game SimCity in which users responses lead to alternative futures.) Maximum use should be made of existing traffic simulation software to provide the detailed traffic impacts of alternative actions, that is, the contractor should not redevelop traffic simulation procedures as part of this project. NOTE 1: This project shall use rapid prototyping as a software development strategy. The contractor will be required to demonstrate prototypes at selected points during the project. NOTE 2: The contractor will coordinate with any relevant software development projects undertaken by FHWA such as enhancements to the QuickZone software for studying work zone impacts. Tasks: (a) Develop the knowledge base needed to develop the event simulation software. This will involve the construction of an intricate decision tree that chains together actions and their consequences. Probabilities may be appropriate for some events and their effects simulated randomly. (b) Obtain archived video of queue backups from incidents for use in validation of simulation models. Also use the video to decompose incidents and the response to incidents into a sequence of discrete choices. (c) Develop techniques to validate models and provide credibility to graphical display. Select optimum model for further development for gaming tool. (d) Working with a state DOT, obtain helicopter coverage of queue backup under real world incident conditions. (e) Provide simulation to run side by side with real world video as proof of concept. (f) Obtain freeway crash database across multi-state sample. (The FARS and CODES datasets may be useful.) Sort for rear-end collisions and severity. Develop probabilities of secondary crashes and severity. (g) Working with incident responders, develop scenarios for use in gaming. Develop game to illustrate dynamically the effects of chosen incident management strategies for a given simulated incident. The scenarios should include overlays of events such as pre-existing congestion, adverse weather, evacuations, etc. (h) Provide means for teams to compete with one another to keep the total public cost lowest, given potential crashes upstream, potential crashes involving 81

85 responding equipment, cost of clearance equipment, cost to noninvolved drivers in delay, cost of retrieved loads, etc. (i) Upon completion of the simulation software, develop an expert system that uses the same knowledge base as an aid for incident responders. Relationships to other projects or F-SHRP areas: The simulation and gaming tool could be used in numerous other project areas to test and illustrate the impact of various incident management strategies and policies. Research Period and Funding Requirement: 36 months; $3 million Products and benefits: The products are a computer simulation/gaming tool and accompanying user s manual. The gaming tool could be used in educating policy makers regarding the value of investment in effective traffic incident response and quick clearance policies. It could be used in training incident responders on the effects of actions taken in the field on safety upstream. It could be used to debrief responders after a major incident, to improve quality of response. It could be used by traffic management centers to improve their response plans for incidents. The key lies in successful validation of the chosen model. F-3: Prioritization of Reliability Research Projects Due to the uncertainty of funding, a priority ranking of projects is offered for consideration. Instead of assigning ranks to individual projects, three tiers were defined and used to group the projects: 1. The Vital Few Projects these projects have the greatest potential to affect transportation practice and should be funded by some program or agency even if the F-SHRP program does not exist. 2. Critical Projects these projects fill major knowledge gaps in transportation operations and should be considered first if the full amount of expected funding is not available to F-SHRP. 3. Supporting Projects these are the remaining projects from the Research Plan that should be included if F-SHRP is fully funded. Table F.2 shows the priority listing of the research projects. 82

86 Table F.2. Prioritization of Reliability Research Projects The Vital Few Projects Project Budget ($K) 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices 5, : Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring 1, : Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies 3, : The Relationship between Recurring and Non-Recurring Congestion 1, : Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3, : Implementation of Alternative Traffic Operation Strategies 4,000 Critical Projects National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-2.2: Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability 3-2.3: Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigation Strategies TOTAL 17,700 1,500 3,000 2, : Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability 1, : Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations 1, : Highway Funding and Programming Structures to Promote Operations 1, : Personnel Requirements for Conducting Effective Traffic Incident, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-5.1: Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions 2,000 1, : Development of Better Mitigation Options for Weather Events 2, : Identification and Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion 3-6.2: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual 3-6.3: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design 3,500 2,750 2,750 83

87 Project NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Budget ($K) 3-7.3: Improving Merging Behavior on Urban Freeways 3, : Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems 3, : Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques 1,800 Supporting Projects 3-2.4: Incorporating Reliability Estimation into Planning and Operations Modeling Tools 3-2.5: Incorporating Mobility and Reliability Performance Metrics into the Transportation Programming Process TOTAL 33,800 2,000 2, : Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations 4, : Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists 4, : Systems for Tracking Hazardous Material Movements Nationwide 1, : Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions 2, : Use of Road Weather, Safety and Travel Reliability Data to Identify Ways to Improve Travel Time Reliability 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 1,500 3, : Increasing the Credibility of Travel Time Predictions with Travelers 1, : Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market and Its Impact on Public Sector Operational Strategies 2, : Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems 2, : Simulation and Gaming Tools for Incident Response 3,000 TOTAL 28,500 84

88 G. MANAGEMENT OF THE RESEARCH NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities G-1: Basis of Cost Estimates Table G.1 presents the assumptions used in estimating the project costs. Three general cost categories were used: person-hours, other direct costs, and specialized equipment. Four labor categories were used: Senior Professional, Research Associate, Technician, and Support. Average labor rates for each category were selected to reflect the average labor costs incurred over the sixyear duration of the F-SHRP program and assuming that the program would begin in G-2: Contracting Requirements Special contract requirements for individual projects have been noted in project scopes in Section F. In some cases, it may advantageous to combine projects with similar scopes/purposes and issue single contracts for them. Potential bundling of projects into single contracts include: Project (Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigation Strategies) and Project (Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems) these projects have similar scopes in that they are documenting the effects that operational strategies have on system performance and users. However, traveler information was identified as both important and complex enough to warrant its own project. Projects (Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues) and Project (Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues) logical sequence of research into the problem and identification of effective countermeasures. Project (Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists) and Project (Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques) these projects have similar scopes in that they both deal with management and control of incident scenes. However, Project deals with the consequences of an incident (queues) while deals with the scene itself. Project (Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions) and Project (Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions) logical sequence of research into the problem and identification of better forecasting methods. Project (Identification and Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion) and Project (Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design) logical sequence of research into the problem and identification of effective countermeasures. Project (Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual) and Project (The Relationship between Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Congestion) logical sequence of research into the problem and identification of better analysis methods. (Project is the predecessor project.) 85

89 Table G.1. Basis of Project Cost Estimates Topic and Project 3-1: Improving the Knowledge Base for Addressing the Root Causes of Unreliable Travel Times National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices 3.2: Improvements in Data, Metrics, and Analytic Methods for Measuring Reliability 3-2.1: Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring 3-2.2: Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability 3-2.3: Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigation Strategies 3-2.4: Incorporating Reliability Estimation into Planning and Operations Modeling Tools 3-2.5: Incorporating Mobility and Reliability Performance Metrics into the Transportation Programming Process 3-2.6: Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability 3-3: Overcoming Institutional Barriers to Effective Transportation Operations 3-3.1: Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies 3-3.2: Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations 3-3.3: Highway Funding and Programming Structures to Promote Operations Duration (Months) Senior Professional Person-Hours Research Associate Technician Support Staff Other Direct Costs ($K) Special Equipment Costs ($K) Budget ($K) 24 4, $500 $0 $1,500 Special Equipment Type 60 7,000 2,400 12, $600 $1,000 $5,000 Hardware/Software 24 2,500 2, $280 $0 $1, ,000 1,000 3, $500 $700 $3,000 Hardware/Software 24 1,500 2,800 2, $170 $700 $2,000 Field Data Collection 48 2,000 4,500 4, $220 $100 $2,000 Software 24 5,000 3,600 1, $200 $0 $2, ,300 4,200 1, $150 $0 $1, ,300 4, $750 $0 $3, , , $200 $750 $1,500 Multimedia Materials 24 3,200 3, $340 $0 $1,500 86

90 Topic and Project 3-3.4: Personnel Requirements for Conducting Effective Traffic Incident, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-4: Development of Advanced Technologies to Improve Operational Response 3-4.1: Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations 3-4.2: Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists 3-4.3: Systems for Tracking Hazardous Material Movements Nationwide 3-5: Incorporating Weather Information into Traveler Information and Agency Operation Functions 3-5.1: Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions 3-5.2: Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions 3-5.3: Use of Road Weather, Safety and Travel Reliability Data to Identify Ways to Improve Travel Time Reliability 3-5.4: Development of Better Mitigation Options for Weather Events 3-6: Highway Design Practices to Mitigate the Impact of Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Bottlenecks 3-6.1: Identification and Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion 3-6.2: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual 3-6.3: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design 3-6.4: The Relationship between Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Congestion Person-Hours Other Special Duration Senior Research Support Direct Equipment Budget (Months) Professional Associate Technician Staff Costs ($K) Costs ($K) ($K) 24 3,600 5, $350 $0 $2,000 Special Equipment Type 60 2,500 2,500 6, $750 $1,500 $4,000 Prototypes 60 2,500 2,500 6, $750 $1,500 $4, ,200 2,000 5, $300 $500 $2,000 Hardware/Software 24 3,000 3, $300 $0 $1, ,100 4,100 5, $500 $0 $2,500 Specialized Equip 36 1,800 2,800 3, $300 $0 $1, ,000 2,700 4, $300 $850 $2,500 Specialized Equip 48 4,000 5,000 4, $900 $1,000 $4,000 Field data collection 36 4,300 4,300 1, $1,000 $0 $2, ,300 4,300 1, $1,000 $0 $2, ,600 2, $325 $0 $1,000 87

91 Topic and Project 3-7: Improving Driver Behavior Under Extreme Environmental and Bottleneck Conditions 3-7.1: Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.3: Improving Merging Behavior on Urban Freeways 3-8: Improved Traveler Information to Enhance Travel Time Reliability 3-8.1: Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems 3-8.2: Increasing the Credibility of Travel Time Predictions with Travelers 3-8.3: Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market and Its Impact on Public Sector Operational Strategies 3-8.4: Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems 3-9: Traffic Control and Operational Response to Capacity Loss 3-9.1: Implementation of Alternative Traffic Operation Strategies 3-9.2: Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques 3-9.3: Simulation and Gaming Tools for Incident Response Duration (Months) Senior Professional Person-Hours Research Associate Technician Support Staff Other Direct Costs ($K) Special Equipment Costs ($K) Budget ($K) Special Equipment Type 24 2,500 3,400 3, $500 $1,000 $3,000 Field data collection 24 2,500 3,400 3, $500 $1,000 $3,000 Field data collection 36 2,500 3,400 3, $500 $1,000 $3,000 Field data collection 36 2,500 3,500 3, $500 $1,000 $3,000 Field data collection 24 2,000 2, $250 $0 $1, ,000 2, $250 $0 $1, ,000 1,900 5, $300 $500 $2,000 Hardware/Software 48 3,000 4,800 5, $500 $1,500 $4,000 Field Data Collection 36 2,000 2,000 1, $150 $750 $1,800 Field Data Collection 36 1,500 1,500 9, $300 $1,000 $3,000 Hardware/Software TOTAL $80,000 Labor Rates Sr. Prof. Res. Assoc. Technician Support $ $ $ $

92 G-3: Coordination with Other F-SHRP Areas NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities As indicated in several of the project descriptions, there is substantial overlap with other F-SHRP areas. This overlap may be characterized in three ways: 1. Data Sharing. Several projects should be able to use the same data bases for research. In some cases, it may be necessary to supplement data collection planned in one project so that another project s needs can be met. Examples of data sharing include: Reliability Project (Monitoring Programs). Data collected under this project should be useful to several projects in the F-SHRP Capacity Program. Driver behavior data collected under the F-SHRP Safety Program. A major effort under Safety in the collection of highly detailed driver behavior data. Reliability Project requires this type of data also. 2. Joint Projects. The F-SHRP Capacity Program has several projects which may be conducted as joint projects with the Reliability Program, and vice-versa. This may involve expanding the scope of an individual project to account for another Area s requirements, but it also should mean that a similar project in one Area may be cancelled, thereby conserving funding resources. A preliminary list of joint projects with the F-SHRP Capacity Program includes those in Table G Work Zone Management Projects Under the Renewal Program. Several of the projects under the Renewal Program of F-SHRP deal with construction and management techniques that have the potential to reduce the duration and impacts of work zones. Special consideration should be given to ensuring that travel time effects are explicitly considered in the scopes of these projects. This coordination is required because work zones are a major influence on travel time reliability. The research team has not identified any projects that deal specifically with work zones under the assumption that Renewal Program will cover the topic more comprehensively. There may be overlap with other programs such as FHWA, NCHRP, or others. The research team attempted to identify as many of these as possible, but there is no certainty that long-term research plans will be funded by any group. The individual research project oversight panels and supporting staff should investigate other related projects as part of the research scope development. 89

93 Table G.2. Potential Joint Projects Between the Reliability and Capacity Areas of F-SHRP Reliability Program Area Project (Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring) Project (Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability) Project (Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigation Strategies) Project (Incorporating Reliability into Modeling Tools) Project (Incorporating Reliability into Transportation Planning and Programming) Project (Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability) Project (Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations) Capacity Program Area Project (Improving Our Understanding of Highway Users and Factors Affecting Demand) Project (Improving Our Understanding of Transportation System Performance) Project (Understanding the Contribution of Operations, Technology, and Design to Meeting Highway Capacity Needs) Project (Developing and Applying a Decision- Support Tool for Integrated Systems Planning and Project Development) Project 4-3.4: (Ensuring Support for Highway Capacity Projects by Improving Collaborative Decision-making) Project (Improving Our Understanding of Interactions between Capacity and Economic Systems) Project (Improving Our Understanding of Transportation System Performance) Project (Applying Location and Tracking Technologies to Collect Data for System Planning and Project Development) 90

94 H. IMPLEMENTATION H-1: Expected Research Products In developing individual projects in the Reliability Research Plan, strong consideration has been given to the development of products that will have a direct influence on transportation practice. Table H.1 shows that a wide variety of products is envisioned, based on the nature of the research undertaken. Table H.1 also shows the intended audiences for the products. In some cases, a project produces more than one product. These include: Predictive Models and Methods methods for estimating the impact of mitigation strategies on travel time variability and for forecasting future trends in travel time variability. Information Systems ongoing data bases that promote the improvement of travel time reliability. Software including modifications to existing software and development of new software products; may include newly developed predictive models and methods. Application Guidelines users manuals for applying new procedures. Multimedia Education and Specialized Training designed to meet the needs of practitioners and to foster the findings of specific research in practice. New Technologies new or improved devices that have passed through testing procedures. Integration with Existing Standards and Design Guides revisions to current standards and standard practices. Test Beds and Demonstration Projects specifying how to implement research findings in real-world settings; may be in project scope (as specified in Section F) or F-SHRP may decide to issue additional projects; evaluation must be a component. Model Legislation draft language that may be easily modified for use by individual state legislatures. Knowledge Management assembling and disseminating knowledge gained during the research, either based on determining current based practices (both national and international) or original research into a topic. Improved Field Techniques and Operations Practices new or improved methods for planning, implementing, and evaluating Operational strategies. Research reports will also be generated for most of the projects. For some projects, a report is the only tangible output form the research, even though it may encompass one of the product categories above (e.g., a predictive method or an improved field method). However, as noted in many of the project scopes, even in cases where the intent of the research is just to study a phenomenon or situation, provisions have been made to test or showcase the recommendations in real-world settings. This approach helps to address the problem that many past research projects have had 91

95 Table H.1. Research Products and Implementation Issues Product Relevant Projects Intended Audience Impediments to Implementation Predictive Models and Methods 3-2.3, 3-2.4, 3-2.6, 3-5.2, 3-6.4, When documented in research reports, models and methods are notorious for just sitting on the shelf ; Outreach Program must take an active role in promoting the results and integrating them with other products Information Systems 3-1.2, 3-2.2, 3-4.3, Generally geared to working staffs in transportation agencies (those that implement strategies, Additional information products will be developed from the IS s; active marketing of these products must be achieved Software 3-2.2, 3-2.4, perform analysis, etc.) Entry of new software into the market is often difficult since existing products are entrenched; private vendors may fight public sponsorship of software products Application Guidelines 3-2.3, 3-2.5, 3-2.6, Same situation as for Predictive Models and Methods Multimedia Education and Specialized Training 3-3.2, Senior management in both transportation and nontransportation agencies New Technologies 3.4-1, Equipment manufacturers; agency personnel responsible for purchasing new equipment Integration with Existing Standards and Design Guides Test Beds and Demonstration Projects 3-2.1, 3-6.2, 3-6.3, ITS data dictionaries (3-2.1 and 3-8.4); Highway Capacity (potentially) Manual (3-6.2); AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design (3-6.3) 3-2.6, 3-3.1, 3-8.3, 3-9.1, (varies with focus of individual projects) Model Legislation Senior management of agencies and state legislatures Knowledge Management Improved Field Techniques and Operations Practices 3-1.1, 3-1.2, 3-5.1, 3-7.1, 3-8.2, 3-8.3, , 3-2.5, 3-3.3, 3-3.4, 3-5.3, 3-5.4, 3-6.1, 3-7.2, 3-7.3, 3-9.1, All staff levels in transportation and nontransportation agencies Generally geared to working staffs in transportation agencies (those that implement strategies, perform analysis, etc.) Public relations/marketing products must be digestible by senior management Market must be capable of supporting private investment in equipment production; buyers must be convinced of the value; production costs must be reasonable Development must be made with full cooperation of sponsoring organizations Tests/demonstrations must be widely advertised to attract attention; results must be widely circulated Legislation must be championed on a case-by-case basis Active outreach must be achieved to move the knowledge base into practice 92

96 with implementation the reports sit on a shelf with only limited application by small number of ambitious practitioners. By field testing or showcasing the research results in a demonstration project, two things can be achieved: 1. additional insight into how the results can be implemented by agencies, thus creating more usable future products; and 2. the testing phase itself is a way to advertise and demonstrate the research results. H-2: Implementation Procedures Use of the National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices Project 3-1.2, National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices, will be a major mechanism for implementing research results and products. This project will develop the support system for disseminating best practices culled from both past work and F-SHRP reliability research. As designed in this Plan, the Outreach Program is an aggressive proactive effort, not a passive repository of information. Some of the mechanisms that will be employed by the Outreach Program to achieve this proactive stance are: development of training programs, peer-to-peer exchanges, acting as intermediaries between agencies and the private sector, and on-call advisors to respond to practitioners needs. Establishing Agency Relationships Operations is somewhat unique to the transportation profession in that multiple units within transportation agencies as well as nontransportation agencies are frequently involved in implementing strategies. Examples of nontransportation agencies that need to be involved in Operations include: Incident management (enforcement, emergency response, and specialized hazmat agencies); Special events (event organizers); weather conditions and forecasting (weather services, both private and governmental); and evacuations (enforcement and emergency response agencies as well as homeland security). It is crucial to the success of Operations in general and the Reliability Research Program specifically that interagency cooperation is established and fostered. Projects (Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies) and (Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations) were explicitly designed to deal with these issues. Also, Project (National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices) includes provisions for supporting with nontransportation agencies. However, as the results and products of these projects won t be known until close to the end of the Program and a strong need exists to establish these relationships at the beginning of the program F-SHRP should undertake a special effort aimed at bringing agency representatives together. One suggestion is the formation of one or two Interagency Expert Task Groups that would provide review and guidance to F-SHRP at periodic points during the conduct of research projects where interagency involvement is required. The Interagency Expert Task Groups can also serve as a resource for researchers for developing contacts outside of the transportation industry. 93

97 At this point, it is recommended that two Interagency Task Groups be formed: one focused strictly on weather issues and one with a focus on broad Operations matters and should include enforcement, emergency response, specialized hazardous material response, and weather. Both Groups would include personnel from transportation and nontransportation agencies. The Weather Interagency Expert task Group would provide consultation on the four projects under Topic 3-5. The Operations Interagency Task Group would provide consultation on the following seven projects (not all projects need to be reviewed, just those that involve both transportation and nontransportation agencies): Project National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management Project 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices Project 3-3.1: Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies Project 3-3.2: Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations Project 3-4.2: Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists Project 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues Project 3-8.4: Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems It is recommended that the Expert Task Groups be formed very early in the F-SHRP Program, at least early enough so that they are in existence by the time that contractors are selected. Other Implementation Mechanisms F-SHRP personnel should also seek additional help in implementing Reliability Research results. A number of mechanisms currently exist for doing so: Training Courses FHWA s National Highway Institute maintains an ongoing program of training course development and delivery. Software the McTrans Center at the University of Florida and AASHTO under the AASHTOWare program offer various levels of support and distribution for software. Existing TRB and AASHTO Committees will need to be directly involved in at least Projects and which deal with revisions to the Highway Capacity Manual and AASHTO design standards. Costs of Implementation The cost to transportation and nontransportation agencies to implement the research findings depends on the exact nature of the results. Table H.2 presents preliminary information on the effort required to implement Reliability Research results. It is expected that these costs will be more precisely defined during the conduct of individual research projects. 94

98 Table H.2. Required Agency Actions to Implement F-SHRP Reliability Research Project National and International Scans of Best Practices in Traffic Incident, Weather, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-1.2: National Outreach Program for Transportation Operations Practices 3-2.1: Data Requirements for Operations and Performance Monitoring 3-2.2: Establishing National and Local Monitoring Programs for Mobility and Travel Time Reliability 3-2.3: Analytic Procedures for Determining the Impacts of Reliability Mitigation Strategies 3-2.4: Incorporating Reliability Estimation into Planning and Operations Modeling Tools 3-2.5: Incorporating Mobility and Reliability Performance Metrics into the Transportation Programming Process 3-2.6: Quantifying the Costs of Travel Time Reliability 3-3.1: Institutional Architectures for Implementation of Operational Strategies 3-3.2: Public Official and Senior Management Education Program on the Benefits of Improved Transportation Operations 3-3.3: Highway Funding and Programming Structures to Promote Operations 3-3.4: Personnel Requirements for Conducting Effective Traffic Incident, Work Zone, and Special Event Management 3-4.1: Advanced Surveillance Technologies for Operations 3-4.2: Technologies to Communicate Traffic Control and Queue Propagation to Motorists 3-4.3: Systems for Tracking Hazardous Material Movements Nationwide 3-5.1: Improvement in Knowledge of Existing Weather and Pavement Conditions 3-5.2: Improved Forecasting of Near-Term Weather and Pavement Conditions Implementation Actions and Cost Implications May be some resistance to using other country s practices because of differences in base conditions; costs will vary depending on what practices are recommended Designed to make implementation easy, but agencies must allow their personnel training time; costs will vary depending on what practices are recommended Possible implication is that additional types of data and/or more coverage may be required; potentially high equipment and maintenance costs Requires dedication of personnel to operate state/local program; most data would come from existing sources; provision for incentive grants included in project budget May require modifications to state procedures and software for impact analysis If procedures are imbedded in existing tools, then implementation costs are minimal Potentially large impacts on agency procedures and mindset ; actual implementation costs should be small, but changes to process may take time May require modifications to state procedures and software for impact analysis Potentially major impacts on agency procedures and internal structure; case study should be able to document implementation costs and other impacts Actual implementation costs should be minimal Potentially large impacts on agency procedures and mindset ; actual implementation costs should be small, but changes to process may take time Potentially large implementation costs as agencies adapt additional training to meet requirements and upgrade qualifications of personnel (labor costs) Implementation costs will depend on the nature of the technology; costs include both capital and M&O; may replace or augment existing technologies with better quality data and/or more coverage Since these technologies do not currently exist, implementation costs are potentially very high Implementation costs are low if a central system is maintained beyond the life of F-SHRP Implementation requires changes to existing state databases and software Implementation requires changes to existing state databases and software 95

99 Project 3-5.3: Use of Road Weather, Safety and Travel Reliability Data to Identify Ways to Improve Travel Time Reliability 3-5.4: Development of Better Mitigation Options for Weather Events 3-6.1: Identification and Evaluation of the Cost- Effectiveness of Highway Design Features to Reduce Non-Recurrent Congestion 3-6.2: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the Highway Capacity Manual 3-6.3: Incorporation of Non-Recurrent Congestion Factors into the AASHTO Policy on Geometric Design 3-6.4: The Relationship between Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Congestion 3-7.1: Quantification of the Causes and Effects of Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.2: Measures for Reducing Inappropriate Driver Response to Adverse Weather, Roadside Distractions, Traffic Incident Scenes, and Queues 3-7.3: Improving Merging Behavior on Urban Freeways 3-8.1: Delay and Reliability Impacts of Traveler Information Systems 3-8.2: Increasing the Credibility of Travel Time Predictions with Travelers 3-8.3: Near-Term Analysis of Traveler Information Market and Its Impact on Public Sector Operational Strategies 3-8.4: Real-Time Data Fusion to Support Traveler Information Systems 3-9.1: Implementation of Alternative Traffic Operation Strategies 3-9.2: Advanced Queue and Traffic Incident Scene Management Techniques 3-9.3: Simulation and Gaming Tools for Incident Response Implementation Actions and Cost Implications Implementation requires changes to existing state databases and software Implementation costs are potentially large as the results may affect current design practices and deployment of new technologies No implementation costs associated with this project; these are incurred in Projects and May require modifications to state procedures and software for impact analysis May require modifications to state design procedures; implementing designs in the field may be more costly than before May require modifications to state procedures and software for impact analysis No implementation costs associated with this project; these are incurred in Project Implementation costs likely to be significant since new technologies and practices are likely outcomes Implementation costs likely to be significant since new technologies and practices are likely outcomes May require modifications to state procedures and software for impact analysis Upgrading the quality and timeliness of traveler information could prove to be costly; hopefully, other Reliability projects can contribute to holding down costs (e.g., 3-2.1, 3-4.1) Implementation costs unknown at this point; will depend on the degree to which private sector will absorb operating costs May require modifications to state procedures and software for traveler information dissemination Potentially major impacts on agency procedures deployment costs; field tests should be able to document implementation costs and other impacts Implementation costs limited to software purchase and personnel training 96

100 I. SCHEDULE AND BUDGET NCHRP Project Interim Planning Activities Figures I.1 through I.5 display the project schedules and budgets for the Reliability Research Program. These may be used in coordinating the development and release of research contracts. 97

101 Figure I.1. Summary Reliability Research Plan Schedule 98

102 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule 99

103 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 100

104 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 101

105 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 102

106 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 103

107 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 104

108 Figure I.2. Detailed Reliability Research Plan Schedule (Cont d) 105