Globalization-related changes in transport activity in Thailand

Transcription

1 Globalization-related changes in transport activity in Thailand Global Forum on Transport and Environment in a Globalizing World Guadalajara, Mexico 1-12 November 28 Deunden Nikomborirak Boonwara Sumano Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)

2 Outline of Presentation 1. Thailand Globalization Indicators Investment (capital) 1.1 Trade (consumption) 1.2 Intra-industry trade (production) 1.3 Investment (capital) 1.4 Employment (labour) 2. Globalization and Transport Activities 2.1 Transport and GDP 2.2 Transport of Goods 2.3 Transport of Passengers 2.4 Sum up: Transport Activities Conclusions Findings and Policy Recommendations

3 1. Thailand s Globalization Indicators

4 1.1 Trade Thailand is increasingly integrated to the global economy. Trade to GDP ratio increased from 172 to 28 during % Exports and imports of goods and services as percentage of GDP at prices in 1998 and Goods 172 Service Source: National Economic and Social Development Board and the Bank of Thailand.

5 1.2 Intra-industry Trade (top 3 exports) Bi Trade Value Source: Apiyuk Amnuaykarnchanasilpa (28), Thailand s Intra-industry Trade, Office of Industrial Economics

6 1.3 Investment FDI contributed to 8.49 per cent of GDP in 26 % Inward Foreign Direct Investment of Thailand as percentage of GDP at 1988 prices in National Economic and Social Development Board and the Bank of Thailand.

7 1.4 Labour Inflow of foreign labors as a percentage of total workforce, Persons Foreign Foreign:Thai % 8, 7, ,.14 65,78 63,682 69, , 4, , , 2, 29,79 28,797 35, ,.2 Ministry of Labor National Statistics Office

8 Sum up During Thailand has been increasingly integrated into the global trade, investment and labour market. However, intra-industry trade trend is inconclusive. Foreign trade contributed to 27 per cent to GDP in 26 compared with 172 per cent in 1998; FDI to 8.49 per cent of GDP in 26, less than the postcrisis figure of 11.6 per cent in Foreign labour share increased from.9 per cent of work force in 21 to.19 per cent in 27.

9 2. Globalization and Transport Activities

10 2.1 Transport GDP Transport contributes to slightly increasing share of GDP from 9.55% in 1998 to 1.6 % in 26. Air and Sea Transport expanded much more rapidly than GDP % Transport GDP share p Transport Average Growth Land Air Sea GDP Average Growth Source: National Economic and Social Development Board

11 2.2 Goods Transport

12 Volume of Domestic Goods Transport road, rail and air mostly declined/stabilized during transportation by river and sea (coastal shipping) increased continuously during this period Thousands of Tons , , ,976 4, Thousands of Tons 7 434,918 44,18 435,147 43, , , ,453 39,88 48,582 49,838 51,965 56,92 57,891 61,55 62,319 37,49 8,364 9,264 9,171 8,776 8,889 1,521 12,883 11,76 11,579 11, Ministry of Transport, Thailand Road Rail Water Air 2 1

13 Transport modes Tons of goods transported/litre of petrol Road Train River/ Sea Air 2 Thailand Japan USA Train River/Sea Road UK

14 Kilo Tons Oil Equivalent (KTOE) Kilo Tons Oil Equivalent (KTOE) Fuel usage by mode of transport 25 Land Water Air Rail ,58 18, , , ,442 16, , ,29 17, , ,314 3,289 2,856 3,38 3,88 3,74 3,467 3,59 3,646 4, ,236 1,48 1,67 1,689 1, Ministry of Transport, Thailand 2

15 No change in composition of domestic transport mode during 2-27 Year 2 Air Year 27 Air Road % Rail 2% % Rail 2% 87% Water 11% Road 86% Water 12% Ministry of Transport, Thailand

16 Volume of Goods Transported internationally Volume of air transport declined reflecting changing composition of trade products towards lighter, higher-value products Water transport almost doubled in volume Land transport increased more than fourfolds from a very small base Thousands of Tons 25, 2,22 Thousands of Tons 211,6 2,5 2, 183, ,95 2, 15, 114, ,166 1, , ,227 15, ,89 1, ,898 1,358 1,77 1,5 1, 5, , 5 2,82 6,567 5,563 6,9 7,491 9,28 1,357 12,36 11,388 12, Ministry of Transport, Thailand Land Transport Water Transport Air Transport

17 Volume of Goods transported through Thai major ports* Millions of Tons General goods Containers Ministry of Transport, Thailand * Bangkok Port and Lam-Chabang Port

18 Volume of Goods Transported Internationally by Mode of Transport Year 2 Air 1% Year 27 Air % Land 4% Land 6% Water 95% Water 94% Ministry of Transport, Thailand

19 Conclusion Domestic transport : marginal rise in the share of water transport and continued underutilization of rail transport due to lack of competition in the sector. International transport: rise in the share of road transport due to increased regional trade facilitated by rapidly developed road network. Sea transport is boosted by containerization. Rail transport, however, remain negligible.

20 2.3 Passenger Transport

21 International tourists arrivals to Thailand by mode of transport Year 2 Year 27 Land 14% Land 15% Air 84% Sea 2% Air 83% Sea 2% Tourism Authority of Thailand

22 Number of Passengers Transported by Land Rising cross-border land transportation due to increased trade and travel within the region, resulting from better infrastructure and increased trade and investment. Persons (Thousands) Domestic International ,84 1,878 1,961 1,787 1,852 11,364 11,585 11, ,989 12, ,151 1,255 1,348 2,289 2,762 1,96 1,781 2,18 2, Ministry of Transport, Thailand

23 Number of Passengers Transported Domestically by Rail Despite increasing in the number of passengers transported by land, transportation of passenger by rail declined continuously and so becoming negligible. Persons (Thousands) 6 54,439 55,213 56,749 55,5 53,216 5,228 49,77 48, ,286 45, Ministry of Transport, Thailand

24 Number of Passengers Transported by Air the vibrant domestic aviation industry beginning in 23 is due to market liberalization that gave rise to low cost airlines. Persons (Thausands) Domestic International 3, 25, 21,794 21,522 24,111 26,614 2, 15, 1, 15,979 16,241 14,955 14,835 15,732 15,598 8,75 8,511 7,582 6,678 7,267 7,916 9,496 9,543 11,5 11,976 5, Ministry of Transport, Thailand

25 2.4 Sum up: Transport Activities

26 Cummulative Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 2-27 CAGR (%) Land Rail Water Air Volume of Goods Transported Domestically Volume of Goods Transported Internationally Value of Goods Transported Internationally Number of Passengers transported Domestically Number of Passengers transported Internationally Fuel Usage by mode of transport General Goods Containers Volume of Goods transported through Thai major ports CAGR (%) Number of International tourists arrivals to Thailand 6.6

27 3. Conclusions

28 Findings/Recommendations Globalization and Transport Activities 1. Globalization has contributed to rapid growth in the volume of international transportation of goods and passengers with the exception of air freight transportation. 2. Liberalization policy and development of transport infrastructure are other major contributors to transport activities growth. 3. Institutional/regulatory constraints can distort efficient composition of transport modes.

29 Policy Recommendations How to minimize environmental impact of increased transport activities Regional infrastructure development plans should give priority to the development of an efficient rail transport system. Domestic transport policy should give greater attention to the development of rail and river and coastal shipping services. Road transport services (haulage) should be made as efficient as possible in order to ensure fuel efficiency.

30 THANK YOU