OECD WORKING PARTY ON TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES STATISTICS 2016

Transcription

1 OECD WORKING PARTY ON TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES STATISTICS 2016 Eurostat BOP WG April 2016 Fabienne Fortanier Head of Trade Statistics OECD Statistics Directorate

2 Overview of presentation WPTGS: background WPTGS 2016: key topics of discussion and main conclusions A. Methodology B. TiVA Spotlight: balanced international merchandise and services trade statistics 2

3 WPTGS main program of work Mandate Strategy Develop statistics to answer policy questions regarding globalization and global value chains Address data integration and consistency in compilation and methodology nationally and internationally Organi sation Organizational innovations Joint sessions with WGIIS Special topic workshops Informal Reflection Groups (IRG) Bilateral Trade Asymmetry Meetings 3

4 Key topics of 2016 WPTGS meeting A. Methodological issues in trade in goods and services Merchanting, goods for processing, Factory-less Goods Producers More detailed services data (geo, MoS, affiliated trade) BOP adjustments to merchandise trade (& their geographical impact) B. Trade in Value Added Development of balanced (asymmetry-reconciled) trade in G+S Integrating FDI (income) into TiVA (jointly with WGIIS) Linking trade and business statistics (TEC, STEC, and beyond) to better account for firm heterogeneity in GVCs (workshop) 4

5 WPTGS 2016: main conclusions (A) Continued exchange on, and wider dissemination of, OECD country practices on measuring complex global production arrangements (merchanting, manufacturing services) IRG exchanged practices > chapter to MSITS compilation guide New focus on identifying Factory-less Goods Producers and their related merchanting/manufacturing services transactions A new focus (IRG) on better measuring BEPS-related flows that allow MNEs to shift profits across borders FDI (income), services (particularly those related to IIP), leasing of capital goods, SPE trade in goods, 5

6 B. Trade in Value Added TiVA aims to increase our understanding of the process of globalization by providing insights into the value added created by each country and industry in the production of goods and services that are traded and consumed worldwide TiVA s work horse: Inter-Country Input-Output Table (ICIO) The ICIO traces input-output relationships across industries AND countries Constructed by combining National Supply and Use / Input-Output tables AND international trade data 6

7 ICIO: integrating national data Country A Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Country B Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Country C Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Taxes less subsidies on products Cif-fob adjustments Value added Labour compensation Operating surplus Taxes less subsidies on production Output Country A Country B Country C Final Demand Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Country A Country B Country C Directly taken from the national IO or SUT table: 1. Intermediate domestic use; 2. Value added, output per ind.; 3. Final demand (EXCL exports) Constructed from balanced international trade flows: 4. Exports, broken down by partner country and INTERMEDIATE end use 5. Exports, broken down by partner country (B and C), and FINAL end use 6. Imports for intermediate use, by partner country and importing industry -> total imports by industry (columns) taken from the National IO/SUT table, broken down by partner 7. Imports for final use, by partner country and exporting industry -> ibid.6 7

8 WPTGS discussions: mainstreaming TiVA (1) Improve data quality and timeliness Started the official data collection of SUTs among OECD, accession countries and key partners (including China) Collaborate with countries to improve national data quality and timeliness Continued upgrading of OECD-WTO TiVA compilation methods Improve level of detail (firm heterogeneity) OECD Expert Group on Extended Supply and Use Tables OECD Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Services Statistics (WPTGS) (on linked business and trade statistics) Ongoing secretariat work to provide proofs of concept and methodological support 8

9 WPTGS discussions: mainstreaming TiVA (2) Increase country coverage e.g. via regional partnerships: APEC, Eurostat, IPEA-UNECLAC, UNESCWA, UNECA and develop the tools and mechanisms to ensure consistency between regional initiatives and TiVA, via the collaborative and transparent production of public goods : Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (in which trade asymmetries are reconciled) Estimated trade in services statistics (in which missing values are estimated and asymmetries reconciled) Develop the integrated international economic accounting framework of tomorrow 9

10 WPTGS 2016: main conclusions (B) Release of newly developed international benchmark datasets on balanced international merchandise and services trade Development of a report on best practices for linking trade and business statistics to develop TEC, STEC and new indicators on the role of SMEs and MNEs in Global Value Chains Trade and investment (with WGIIS): aligning data from different conceptual frameworks; and development of integrated statistical country notes Organize workshop on Regional TiVA Initiatives (next WPTGS) 10

11 SPOTLIGHT: BALANCED INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE TRADE AND SERVICES TRADE STATISTICS 11

12 Schematic overview: constructing a balanced merchandise trade dataset Data preparation Module A: Data collection and harmonization Module B: Conversion to a common valuation (FOB) Data adjustment Module 1: Adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports Module 2: Adjustments for Swiss non-monetary gold Module 3: etc. Trade balancing Module C: Balanced bilateral trade by HS 6-digit product and CPA 12

13 Balanced merchandise trade statistics (2) Key characteristics of our approach: Transparency: Each data point in the final balanced table can be traced back to both original sources and the exact calculations that were made. Modularity: Each step in the construction of a balanced merchandise trade database can be seen as an individual modules, which may be updated separately if new or better insights, methods or data become available. Collaboration: builds on work with statistical offices as well as with other international organizations, making insightful and visible the contributions of each to different components of the overall system Long-term perspective: The project has a long time-horizon. It is iterative and versioned, and is improved and extended incrementally in the years to come. 13

14 Current status and next steps Version 1 to be released after the March 2016 WPTGS Years (HS 2007) Including adjustments for CIF-FOB, HK re-exports, Swiss nonmonetary gold (reducing global cumulative bilateral asymmetries with 20%) Accompanied by short country reports with top 10 asymmetry priorities Documentation: Fortanier & Sarrazin (2016) Balanced Merchandise Trade Statistics, V1, OECD: Paris (STD/CSSP/WPTGS(2016)18). Miao & Fortanier (2016) Estimating CIF-FOB margins, OECD: Paris (STD/CSSP/WPTGS(2016)8). 14

15 Current status and next steps Next steps: Next release (fall 2016) to include HS 2012 data and adjustments for Singapore re-exports Incorporate feedback from WPTGS bilateral asymmetry meetings Intensify collaboration with other IOs and regional initiatives via creation of Advisory Board on balanced trade data 15

16 Schematic overview: constructing a balanced services trade dataset 16

17 First results world data The data set for partner world contains nearly complete series of export and import of trade in services by EBOPS category for 191 countries, from 1995 to % of all trade between is specified by EBOPS category. Series for 132 (121) countries are completed for imports (exports) Around one third of the data points in dataset are estimated values 17

18 First results bilateral data An total increase of over four million data points in the bilateral dataset Around 370,000 to 400,000+ available data points each year, with a much more even spread across time Number of bilateral data-points per year 18

19 First results bilateral data Share of services exports geographically specified, by EBOPS category, before and after the inclusion of estimates (2010) 19

20 Next steps Complete gravity estimations for other EBOPS categories Balancing the data focusing on the reduction of trade asymmetries Conversion to CPA Building on the results of the WPTGS bilateral asymmetry meetings, and the WPTGS Informal Reflection Group on more detailed services trade Developing a matrix according to EBOPS

21 Thank you 21