RETAIL SALES SURVEY. Indeks (rebase 2010)

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Lee Ross
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1 RETAIL SALES SURVEY April 0 The Retail Sales survey conducted in April 0 revealed that retailers reported weaker annual sales growth in April 0 on the month earlier, reflected by decelerated growth from.% (yoy) on March to.% (yoy). Survey respondents confirmed that the slowdown affected several commodity groups, most notably other goods, for which growth contracted more deeply by -.% (yoy), especially clothing. Regionally, retailers in Denpasar reported the highest annual RSI growth in April 0, while the lowest RSI growth was recorded by respondents in Banjarmasin. Respondents predicted annual retail sales to accelerate to.% (yoy) in May 0, with the gains affecting a number of commodity groups, particularly information and communications equipment (.%; yoy), followed by other household equipment (.%; yoy). The survey also disclosed that retailers predicted inflationary pressures to build in July 0 on growing public demand during the approach to Eid-ul-Fitr and the school holidays, evidenced by a -month Price Expectations Index (PEI) of.0, up from. last month. Real Sales in April 0 Retailers reported weaker annual sales growth in April 0. Retailers reported weaker annual sales growth in April 0, reflected by a Real Sales Index (RSI) of. (Graph ), with growth decelerating from.% (yoy) on March to.% (yoy) (Graph ). Respondents confirmed the slowdown affected several commodity groups, most notably other goods, for which growth contracted more deeply from -.% (yoy) last month to -.% (yoy), especially clothing (-.0%; yoy). Indeks (rebase 0) Graph. Real Retail Sales Index * ** *) Preliminary figure **) Projected Holy Fasting Month Methodology The Retail Sales Survey has been conducted monthly to acquire early information concerning GDP trends from a private consumption perspective. The Retail Sales Survey was first conducted in September and in January 0 the survey involved 00 retailers as respondents using purposive sampling in ten cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin and Denpasar. The index is calculated using commodity and city weights, where commodity weights based on the Input-Output Graph (I-O). table, Performance while city weights based of Real on the Sales share of household Growth consumption in Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) to household consumption in Gross Domestic Product GDP. Currently, panel respondents are grouped according to seven KBLI (Indonesian Standard Industrial Classification) established in 00. The real index presented with 0=0 as the base year (previously 000=0). Meanwhile, general price projections calculated by using the balanced score method (net balance + 0) using city weights according to the Cost of Living Survey (SBH).

Graph. Performance of Real Sales Growth (%) Growth (%, mtm) Growth (%, yoy) 0

2 Graph. Performance of Real Sales Growth (%) Growth (%, mtm) Growth (%, yoy) *** *) Preliminary figure **) Projected Fasting month Furthermore, retailers acknowledged that food sales growth slumped from.% (yoy) to.% (yoy) on April 0. In contrast, however, non-food sales were observed to experience stronger growth, accelerating from.% (yoy) to.% (yoy) (Graph ). Robust non-food sales growth was said to primarily experienced by cultural and recreational goods, which reversed the -.% (yoy) contraction reported last month to record positive.% (yoy) growth on the back of children s toys and sports equipment. In addition, spare parts and accessories also recorded solid growth, accelerating from.% (yoy) in March 0 to.% (yoy) in April 0. Graph. Real Sales Annual Growth (YoY) of Food & Non Food Commodity Groups Graph. Real Sales Annual Growth (YoY) of Motor Vehicles Spareparts and Fuels Commodity Groups (%, yoy) * **. (%, yoy) * ** -.0 Food Non Food Motor Vehicles Sparepart and Accessories Automotive Fuels Graph. Real Sales Annual Growth of Information & Comm. and Other Household Equipment Commodity Groups Graph. Real Sales Annual Growth of Cultural & Recreation and Other Goods Commodity Groups

On a monthly basis, respondents reported a downtick in retail sales. In April 0, the Real Sales Index (RSI) recorded growth of 0.% (mtm), down from.0% (mtm) the month earlier.

3 On a monthly basis, respondents reported a downtick in retail sales. In April 0, the Real Sales Index (RSI) recorded growth of 0.% (mtm), down from.0% (mtm) the month earlier. Retailers corroborated the decline in monthly sales growth, in particular affecting information and communications equipment, for which growth decelerated from.% (mtm) to 0.% (mtm) on weaker sales of electronics (audio/video devices). Table. Real Retail Sales Index by Categories Table. Growth (y-o-y) of Real Retail Sales Index Table. Growth (m-t-m) of Real Retail Sales Index

Real Sales Expectations for May 0 Respondents predicted retail sales to rebound in May 0. Respondents predicted annual retail sales to accelerate.% (yoy) in May 0 with Real Sales Index (RSI) of 0.

4 Real Sales Expectations for May 0 Respondents predicted retail sales to rebound in May 0. Respondents predicted annual retail sales to accelerate.% (yoy) in May 0 with Real Sales Index (RSI) of 0. (Table ), with the gains affecting a number of commodity groups, most notably information and communications equipment (.%; yoy), followed by other household equipment (.%; yoy). Retailers predicted a number of commodities to enjoy growth in positive territory, including spare parts and accessories (.%; yoy) as well as food, beverages, and tobacco (.%; yoy). On a monthly basis, respondents predicted RSI growth of.% (mtm) in May 0, up from 0.% (mtm) in the previous period. Retailers expected the surge to have a bearing on the majority of commodity groups, especially other goods (.%; mtm), driven by clothing (.%; mtm). Retailers predicted stronger sales due to growing public demand during the approach to Ramadhan. Regional Real Retail Sales In April 0, retailers in Denpasar reported the strongest annual RSI growth. Regionally, retailers in Denpasar reported the highest annual RSI growth in April 0 at.% (yoy), followed by Bandung at.% (yoy), while the lowest RSI growth was recorded by respondents in Banjarmasin at -.% (yoy) (Table ). In May 0, however, retailers in Bandung predicted the strongest annual RSI growth at.% (yoy), followed by Denpasar at.% (yoy), while the weakest growth was again predicted by retailers in Banjarmasin at -.% (yoy). Table. Real Sales Index by City

Table. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City Table.

Retailers predicted inflationary pressures to build in July 0.

demand during the approach to Eid-ul-Fitr and the school holidays, evidenced by a -month Price

Meanwhile, respondents predicted that inflationary pressures would subsequently subside in the next six

5 Table. Annual Growth (y-o-y) of Real Sales by City Table. Monthly Growth (m-t-m) of Real Sales by City Price Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Retailers predicted inflationary pressures to build in July 0. Retailers predicted inflationary pressures to build in the next three months (July 0) on growing public demand during the approach to Eid-ul-Fitr and the school holidays, evidenced by a -month Price Expectations Index (PEI) of.0, up from. last month (Table ). Meanwhile, respondents predicted that inflationary pressures would subsequently subside in the next six months (October 0), indicated by a drop in the corresponding Price Expectations Index (PEI) from. last period to.0 (Table ). Graph. Expectations on Prices for the Upcoming Three Months Graph. Expectations on Prices for the Upcoming Six Months

Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Retailers were increasingly optimistic that sales would pick in the next three months.

6 Sales Expectations for the Upcoming Three and Six Months Retailers were increasingly optimistic that sales would pick in the next three months. Retailers were optimistic that sales would pick in the next three months (July 0) as public demand spiked, reflected by an upswing in the -month Sales Expectations Index (SEI) from. the month earlier to. (Table ). Retailers were particularly upbeat on sales due to the seasonal spike in public demand during Eid-ul-Fitr, which this year coincides with the school holidays. In contrast, respondents acknowledged that sales would probably subside in the next six months (October 0). Table. Expectations for Prices and Sales

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