Which 750" ml bottle of coke would you pick?

Transcription

1 Which 750" ml bottle of coke would you pick?

2 You have recognized the variability of the 750" ml coke pop bottle process! What are the sources of the variability? Which process is the more variable?

3 You have recognized the variability of the 750" ml coke pop bottle process! What are the sources of the variability? Pop filling process! Which process is the more variable?

4 You have recognized the variability of the 750" ml coke pop bottle process! What are the sources of the variability? Pop filling process! Bottle manufacturing process! Which process is the more variable?

5 You have recognized the variability of the 750" ml coke pop bottle process! What are the sources of the variability? Pop filling process! Bottle manufacturing process! Which process is the more variable? The bottle manufacturing process is much more variable than the pop filling process. The higher meniscus (pop level) is probably the result of a blemish in the bottle!

6 Do you as a customer really care about the variability?

7 Do you as a customer really care about the variability? No! Does Coke care? Measure very accurately the liquid content of a large number of coke bottles! On the real line put an x for each value. ie:...x..x...x...x...x...x.x.x...x...x... ml {real line} What does the graph look like when your done?

8 Measure very accurately the liquid content of a large number of coke bottles! On the real line put an x for each value. Result: ml {real line} What does this graph tell you about the content of all the coke bottles?

9 Measure very accurately the liquid content of a large number of coke bottles! On the real line put an x for each value. Result: ml {real line} What does this graph tell you about the content of all the coke bottles? Only the minimum and maximum.

10 To help us better understand how the values are distributed, draw a curve (called a distribution) over the real line so that its height represents the concentration of values on the real line below. Also draw the distribution so that it encloses one square unit. Since the A line is twice as long as the B line, the concentration of values near A is twice the concentration near B. This distribution implies only one point of concentration at A. What is the common name for this unique point of concentration?

11 Many processes that attempt to achieve a common value have this symmetrical bell shaped distribution. What is the name of this distribution? Where is the mean?

12 Where is 750 compared to the mean (recall the values being studied are the content of 750" ml coke bottles)? a] 750 is left of the mean. b] 750 is to the right of the mean. c] The mean is 750. But first answer the question: What is the maximum % of the time that you would tolerate your best friend lying to you?

13 If you answer was c] then a quick look should tell you what % of the Coke customers were lied too. 50% Remember, for a properly constructed distribution the area above an interval is the proportion (or probability) that a value falls in an interval. Does our society allow coke to lie 50% of the time. How is a lying % controlled?

14 How is a lying % controlled? ans: by our judicial system when the truth in advertising law is enforced. Does our society allow Coke to lie 50% of the time. ans: No. Similar processes have been tested in the courts and juries have set a 10-20% guideline, up about 5% from 20 years ago. What should Coke try to do?

15 Reduce the variability of its filling process! If you wished you could now only lie to 5% of their customers or......move the mean to the left.

16 Now Coke is only giving away.5 ml per 750 ml bottle. Annual savings:.5 x.005 x 4,500,000,000 = $11,250,000 every year, forever! Is it expensive to reduce variability. Yes but it can be potentially worthwhile.

17 What statistical tools would Coke need? 1] Distribution 2] Mean 3] Measure of Variability 4] Method of finding Interval Probabilities.{area} Before After

18 If we can manufacture parts for the filling machines in space outside the presence of gravity then the reduced variability may easily cover the manufacturing costs!