LESSONS FOR EMERGING MARKETS FOUR ACTIONABLE INSIGHTS FOR RETAILERS

Transcription

1 LESSONS FOR EMERGING MARKETS FOUR ACTIONABLE INSIGHTS FOR RETAILERS

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3 INTRODUCTION In parts of North America and most of Western Europe, the retail sector has reached a saturation point. Opening new stores in these markets does not lead automatically to an increase in bottom line results. Under these conditions, retailers have had to change their approach to maintain year-on-year growth on sales and profitability, for example, by becoming more cost efficient and wringing greater profits out of the same volume of sales (see our report The Rise and Rise of Cost Reduction ), or by investing in commercial capabilities to enhance like-for-like sales. Meanwhile, in developing economies, some retailers are following in the footsteps of those original retail pioneers, mirroring the same pattern of rapid growth and expanding real estate. But the world is not the same place as it was when the likes of Tesco, Carrefour, Walmart, and Edeka made their first billions. With globalization and digitalization, markets are maturing in a very different consumer environment, where they are both hindered and helped by the internet, international competition, and collaborations. Innovation and local customization are thriving in places like China and India, but also in lesser-known markets like Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic. In this article, we provide a short guide to the top lessons for retailers in emerging markets and those mature retailers looking to expand on the international stage. 1. Bigger isn t always better: Smaller formats can win, too 2. Online is a necessity, not an option 3. Consolidation should always be on the table 4. Don t forget the basics 3

4 1. BIGGER ISN T ALWAYS BETTER: SMALLER FORMATS CAN WIN, TOO In countries like France and the UK, retailers grew rapidly by building huge real estate portfolios of giant out-of-town hypermarkets, and then raced to buy up space on the high street to offer convenience formats in every neighbourhood. While there is some demand for super- and hypermarkets in emerging markets, the fastest-growing format is the smaller convenience store size, of under 3,000 sq ft. In Russia, this scenario is being played out by Pyaterochka (owned by X5), Magnit, and Dixy, which are pushing out a vast number of discount-style convenience stores that target small but frequent shops and offer low prices. The approach lent itself to rapid expansion, because the stores were small, light on capital expenditure, and easy to open, with a basic product range (see Exhibit 1.) Between 2012 and 2016, the three main retailers collectively opened over 13,000 new stores, more than doubling the number of modern retail stores in Russian grocery. Exhibit 1: Magnit, X5, and Dixy store growth in Russia ,000 12, % 8,000 4,000 0 Source: Planet Retail 105% 113% Magnit X5 Dixy Small formats are also hugely successful in India, where most of the populations grocery needs are served by small local stores; and in Poland, the discount format Biedronka a banner of Portuguese retailer Jeronimo Martins is leading the market. These smaller formats are nimble enough to win share from the international behemoths of hypermarket retailing by tailoring themselves to serve local demand and having adaptive supply chains. 4

5 2. ONLINE IS A NECESSITY, NOT AN OPTION In the West, most of the big retailers had a strong physical presence before adding an online channel into the mix. Retailers in emerging markets will likely not have this luxury and will have to adapt themselves accordingly. For example, in China, Alibaba, JD, and Yihaodian built their own logistics networks supporting their online businesses an expensive choice, but one that gives them full control of the end-to-end customer experience. Similarly, shoppers in the more remote places outside Kazakhstan s main cities are keen to adopt online shopping opportunities, if the technology and infrastructure can be provided to support it. Retailers in Kazakhstan have proven to the rest of the world that cash-on-delivery is a viable payment solution for online orders. Lack of flexible payment options is often a barrier to people who are not able to access banking services or who prefer to pay in cash, for whatever reason, such as distrust of online payment systems. (For more on this, read our recent report, Digital Equality: Three steps to better serve low-income consumers online. ) In developing countries, mobile phones and tablets have leapfrogged desktop computers and laptops in enabling people to get online. Meanwhile in developed countries, use of mobiles and tablets to access the internet is increasing, particularly among people with lower incomes. Successful retailers are investing in excellent mobile shopping sites that are customized to browsing and making purchases on a small screen. In India, the grocery market alone is worth over 600 billion. But this huge consumer market is regulated by laws aimed at limiting competition from international retailers. However, regulations in India do permit foreign businesses to operate via online marketplaces, allowing consumer goods to go where stores cannot. Businesses taking advantage of this, like UK clothing retailer MISSguided and US brand The North Face, are helping customers become familiar with their brands, so as internet access increases and infrastructure challenges reduce, they are well-positioned to win market share. Those who are watching and waiting for legislation to change are already a step behind. 5

6 3. CONSOLIDATION SHOULD ALWAYS BE ON THE TABLE Consolidation will always be a feature in retail. Such consolidation may be on a small scale and local, as in the case of the Future Group in India bringing local, family-owned stores (kiranas) currently serving 98 percent of the country s grocery needs into their Aadhaar (rural) and KB s Fair Price (urban) franchises. Or it may be national, as we are seeing in Poland, where a highly competitive and fragmented market the top five leading grocers account for less than 50 percent of the market is being shaped by those retailers who are actively pursuing a strategy of integrating franchise concepts and local banners. Merger activity in Poland will continue in the coming years, driving centralization and efficiency. In such retail environments, the winners will likely be those businesses that actively drive consolidation early on and can quickly and efficiently integrate businesses to streamline commercial and operational activities like category management, purchasing, or logistics. In mature markets, we also expect to see more mergers and acquisitions, as shown in the Netherlands. Two national companies combined when Jumbo bought C1000, and more recently, Albert Heijn merged with Belgian supermarket Delhaize. In addition to national and international consolidation, it is important for retailers to keep an open mind about cross-sector acquisition and merger, such as UK grocer J Sainsburys purchase of general merchandise retailer Argos. It may prove to be a canny way to future-proof their business in the face of a local market, confronting falling grocery margins, loss of share to hard discounters, rising food inflation, and fickle consumer confidence. 6

7 4. DON T FORGET THE BASICS In the end, success in retail comes down to customers satisfaction with prices and product offering. To meet these expectations, a retailer must have strong commercial capabilities. In particular, they should consider reducing complexity and cost in their operations. For example, promotions are becoming a retail plague in the Czech Republic. Over the past years, the fight for customers and market share has led to a flood of promotional activities by almost all the supermarkets in the country. In the Czech Republic, we see half of the sales made will be products on promotion, rising to 80 percent for some categories like poultry or beer during certain times and in certain stores. The grocers may believe they are positioning themselves as low cost, but as a result, customers no longer trust the original shelf prices and will only make purchases on promotion. This is driving a vicious cycle of more and more promotions that damage the business. Pricing, promotions, and product assortment are among the most powerful levers that a retailer can use to improve financial performance: It is therefore essential to manage them actively, and to ensure senior management retains visibility and control of key decisions. With dozens of buyers making hundreds of decisions every day, the stakes are high, with millions riding on choices made by relatively junior personnel. Ensuring that corporate strategy is cascaded down into individual product categories and that the buying teams have the tools they need to make the right decisions can transform a retailer s financial performance. CONCLUDING REMARKS The cornerstones of successful grocery retail are the ability to adapt to new and changing environments and developing the right formats and related capabilities in a cost-effective way. To succeed in emerging markets, domestic and international retailers should not only look to customize their businesses to the specific challenges and opportunities of each region, but also be open to learn new ideas from markets and experiences half a world away. 7

8 ABOUT OLIVER WYMAN Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting that combines deep industry knowledge with specialised expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organisation transformation. In the Retail practice, we draw on unrivalled customer and strategic insight and state-of-the-art analytical techniques to deliver better results for our clients. We understand what it takes to win in retail: an obsession with serving the customer, constant dedication to better execution, and a relentless drive to improve capabilities. We believe our hands-on approach to making change happen is truly unique and over the last 20 years, we ve built our business by helping retailers build theirs. CONTACTS JAMES BACOS Global Retail Practice Leader james.bacos@oliverwyman.com CHRIS BAKER North American Retail Practice Co-Leader chris.baker@oliverwyman.com WAI-CHAN CHAN Asian Retail Practice Co-Leader wai-chan.chan@oliverwyman.com BERNARD DEMEURE French Retail Practice Leader bernard.demeure@oliverwyman.com RICHARD McKENZIE Asian Retail Practice Co-Leader richard.mckenzie@oliverwyman.com MARÍA MIRALLES CORTÉS Iberian Retail Practice Leader maría.miralles@oliverwyman.com SIRKO SIEMSSEN European Retail Practice Co-Leader sirko.siemssen@oliverwyman.com FREDERIC THOMAS-DUPUIS North American Retail Practice Co-Leader frederic.thomas-dupuis@oliverwyman.com NICK HARRISON European Retail Practice Co-Leader nick.harrison@oliverwyman.com Copyright 2016 Oliver Wyman. All rights reserved.