Removing Variables. In order to address the variables associated with bolting in subsea and splash zones, it is

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1 Ian MacMoy The National Academy of Science Work Shop on SubSea Bolting in Oil and Gas April 10, 2017 Removing Variables (S) Fifty years ago, we defined a catastrophe as an event that takes the lives of 10,000 or more people. Today we define a catastrophe as a train derailment, a plane crash, or an oil spill. Especially, one where life has been lost and our environment is put in danger. How did we get from 10,000 dead to an oil spill? Our definition of a catastrophe has been changed by variables that change our minds. What are these variables? They are elements that are liable to vary, or change that leaves us with questions. Not knowing what our risk is, leads us to wonder what we leave to critical results. So, we get better at what we do. We participate in discussions like this, we enumerate the facts, we define the variables, then we remove the variables we can, so that we do not let failure or catastrophes set in. In order to address the variables associated with bolting in subsea and splash zones, it is necessary to identify and rank the significant contributors based on what is known about the system, the materials involved and the possible stress caused by internal processes and under various environmental conditions. Each of these characteristics may vary over a range of operating conditions. In any process or operation, various failure modes may be developing that could each produce a catastrophe.

2 2 (U) What can we do to manage the risk of Hydrogen Embrittlement? Minimize hydrogen from coating processes, design better coatings and select materials with low susceptibility to hydrogen embrittlement failure. Salim Brahimi (Hydrogen Workshop ASTM F16) On fasteners we Test for variables, we Monitor for variables, but why have we not removed variables? Testing, is the checks and measures we use in processing to qualify performance, quality, or reliability against the variables we know exist in practice (in the field). We only test those variables we can account for and we are usually reactive to only certain fields of knowledge that we deal within. Monitoring, is the observance of known variables over time and measuring changes in environment and/or processes. Removal, is where we remove the known variable completely from causing any harmful reaction at all. With electroplating we have attached testing to make sure we pre-bake ASTM B849 for stress relief and we post-bake with ASTM B850 for hydrogen embrittlement, we extend the time frame to 8 hours post bake and attach rules that expand to all dimensional forms under 20E. We established ASTM F519 to account for any hydrogen embrittlement left at all. But, once you have exposed the substrate to an acid, or harsh chemical the potential is there. There is no taking back the exposure to risk, we can only reduce the hydrogen potential with bake out. Why take the risk in the first place? Why not remove the chance of hydrogen embrittlement from occurring at all and use other services that have a history of 0% risk? Only after we have eliminated the variables from causing critical failure, should we begin testing for inadequacies in variables that are non-critical. Instead of removing the variables in plating, we standardize more testing and enforce more rulings and add stricter regimens in order to cover our bases with the mounting

3 3 risks. A designer knows he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away. -Antoine de Saint-Exupery (C)Here are examples of what testing we have to follow on subsea fasteners, which incorporates and makes references to ASTMs, ISOs, API nominal standards and the specifications of the manufacture. ASTM A320 / A320M - 15a Standard Specification for Alloy-Steel and Stainless Steel Bolting for Low-Temperature Service ASTM A Standard Specification for Carbon Steel Track Bolts and Nuts A01.01 ASTM F Standard Specification for Convection Oven Gas or Electric F26.02 ANSI/ ASME B Edition, 2003 (Unified Inch Screw Threads (UN and UNR Thread Form) ASTM B Standard Practice for Operating Salt Spray (Fog) Apparatus ASTM B 322 Standard Guide for Cleaning Metals Prior to Electroplating ASTM B 633 Standard Specification for Electrodeposited Coatings of Zinc on Iron and Steel ASTM B 695 Standard Specification for Coatings of Zinc Mechanically Deposited on Iron and Steel ASTM D 610 Standard Test Method for Evaluating Degree of Rusting on Painted Steel Surfaces (Adjunct to SSPC-VIS 2) ASTM D Standard Practice for Commercial Packaging ASTM D (2012) Standard Test Method for Indicating Oil or Water in Compressed Air ASTM D Standard Practice for Assessing the Solvent Resistance of Organic Coatings Using Solvent Rubs ASTM D (2012) Standard Test Method for Evaluating Adhesion by Knife D01.46 ASTM A370 Standard Test Methods and Definitions for Mechanical Testing of Steel Products, 2013 Edition ASTM B849 Standard Specification of Pre-Treatments of Iron or Steel for Reducing Risk of Hydrogen Embrittlement, 2013 Edition ASTM B850 Standard Guide for Post-Coating Treatments of Steel for Reducing Risk of Hydrogen Embrittlement, 2009 Edition ASTM E18 Standard Test Methods for Rockwell Hardness of Metallic Materials, 2014 Edition ASTM E45 Standard Test Methods for Determining the Inclusion Content of Steel, 2011 Edition ASTM F436 / F436M - 16 Standard Specification for Hardened Steel Washers Inch and Metric Dimensions ASTM A193 Standard Specification for Alloy-Steel and Stainless Steel Bolting Materials for High Temperature or High Pressure Service and Other Special Purpose Applications ASTM A194 Standard Specification for Carbon and Alloy Steel Nuts for Bolts for High Pressure or High Temperature Service, or Both ASTM A563 Standard Specification for Carbons and Alloy Steel Nuts ASTM B183 Standard Practice for Preparation of Low-Carbon Steel for Electroplating ASTM B633 Standard Specification for Electrodeposited Coatings of Zinc on Iron and Steel ASTM D5402 Standard Practice for Assessing the Solvent Resistance of Organic Coatings Using Solvent Rubs ASTM D7190 Nondestructive Measurement of Dry Film Thickness of Nonmagnetic Coatings Applied to Ferrous Metals and Nonmagnetic, Nonconductive Coatings Applied to Non-Ferrous Metals

4 4 ASTM F1470 Standard Practice for Fastener Sampling for Specified Mechanical Properties and Performance Inspection ( applies to the receiving inspect at the supplier s facility, usually applicable for outsourced large volume of nuts.) American Petroleum Institute (API) API Q1 Specification for Quality Management System Requirements for Manufacturing Organizations for the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industry API 20E Alloy and Carbon Steel Bolting for Use in the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries API 20F Corrosion Resistant Bolting for Use in the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries International Organization for Standardization (ISO) ISO 9001 Quality Systems - Model for Quality Assurance in Design, Development, Production, Installation and Servicing ISO 9002 Quality Systems - Model for Quality Assurance in Production, Installation and Servicing National Association of Corrosion Engineers (NACE) NACE MR0175 Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries Materials for use in H2S- Containing Environments in Oil and Gas Production (ISO 15156) Other References ASTM E566 Standard Practice for Electromagnetic (Eddy-Current) Sorting of Ferrous Metals ASTM E709 Standard Guide for Magnetic Particle Testing ASTM F436 Standard Specification for Hardened Steel Washers ASTM F788 (1982) Standard Specification for Surface Discontinuities of Bolts, Screws and Studs, Inch and Metric Series. (1982) ASTM F812 Standard Specification for Surface Discontinuities of Nuts, Inch and Metric Series (C)Are we better off with these tests? If we keep the variables and add on testing to check for critical failures will we have another blowout? Looking for answers outside our own backyard to see why places like the North Sea have not been as problematic is a good idea. DNV-GL headquartered in Norway, specified thermal diffused zinc (ASTM A1059 and ISO 13811) as a viable solution for both topsides and sub sea fastener applications in their 2012 JIP- (Guideline for Specification, Design and Assembly of Offshore Bolted Joints). The conversion system does not seem to have the potential to cause hydrogen embrittlement (0%) and the friction co-efficiency remains the same due to no heavy coatings or dry lubricants being applied. The only variables are substrate, time and temperature. There are other potential applications we need to ask questions about that might just remove the question of hydrogen embrittlement all together. (E) No plan of Operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force. Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke

5 5 One aspect that needs mentioning is the measurement of technical authority and responsibility for abstract thought in the field and in the supply chain. We need to expect more from our supply chain vendors. In battle it is the Generals who strategize the war to come, they are not the hands on field commander dealing with issues in the field. That is left up to the captains and colonels who deal with abstract knowledge of the plans and know the ends and outs of the battle field. This is called Command Intelligence, or (CI). We need our Engineers to be our Generals and we need to make our vendors our captains and our colonels, and our technical authority on the services they provide. In order to do this we will not be able to rely solely on testing, but on the abstract knowledge of those in our supply chain. We have to have both the reduction of variables and our captains and our colonels directing the plan of optimization. The more tests we encompass the more rules will be made and laws will need to be enforced by government. Then applicators will start going to jail because someone zinc plated a part instead of zinc phosphating it. I know that sounds like a wild step up, but there is a reason I stay away from the nuclear industry. They have already moved to this point, because of the seriousness of what was at stake. Maybe we just need to treat a failure like a catastrophe. (S) I was looking for a new coating system to apply to fasteners about five years ago, and found one that said it could go 30,000+ salt spray hours (ASTM B117) without red rust. They sent me the testing, measurements, pictures every 1,500 hours from the laboratory. This was from a laboratory which all of the major producers and I had used several times. I was filled with wonder and amazement. Until I went to the lab to see if they could perform another test and

6 6 found that they not only did not know how to properly set up the Salt Fog Cabinet, but they had not turned it on in many years. Their certification had been riding on the individual who had left two years ago and before the 30,000+ salt spray test had been finished. Always Trust that the right thing is being done, but Verify that it has been. President Ronald Reagan SUMMARY 1. We have to agree that an oil spill is a catastrophe. 2. We have to agree that the more variables we add the better chance of something going wrong. Look for solutions that do not incorporate more testing and more risk. 3. Keep your friends close and your friends with the potential to be an enemy, closer. Vendors that carry risk and deal with variables need to be part of the team. (Captains & Colonels) 4. Removing the variables of hydrogen embrittlement in our fasteners, would be like turning our weakest link into our strongest reliable points. Because what can go wrong, will go wrong. - Arthur Bloch

7 7 Acknowledgements Cecil Moon with Fitter Welding Services, INC. Ivan Gutierrez with Oil and Gas Corrosion UK Doxsteel Fasteners Jim Pettigrew with OESI API sub committees

8 8 References and Work Cited DNV-GL 2012 JIP- (Guideline for Specification, Design and Assembly of Offshore Bolted Joints) Brahimi, Salim, Hydrogen Embrittlement Some Theory. IBECA Technology Corporation, ASTM F16 Workshop on Hydrogen Embrittlement, Anaheim, California, 2015 Heath, Chip and Dan. Made to Stick: why some ideas survive and others die. New York: Random House, (e.g. Print) (e.g.print) Garrick, B.John. Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks. London: Elsevier, Kumamoto and Henley, Hiromitsu and Ernest. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists. New Jersey: IEEE Press, (e.g.print) Schlesinger Paunovic, Mordechay and Milan, Modern Electroplating 5 th edition. New York: A John Wiley & Sons, INC. PUB., (e.g. Print) Garrick and Dykes, John Garrick and Andrew Dykes. Enhancing Corrosion Decisions with the Aid of the Risk Sciences. NACE International Corrosion Conference in San Antonio, (Speech and Expo) ASTM F API 20E "Alloy and Carbon Steel Bolting for use in the Petroleum and Natural Gas Industries, August 2012 First Edition ; applies when required or invoked by other standards. 7. ASTM A370 Standard Test Methods and Definitions for Mechanical Testing of Steel Products, 2013 Edition 8. ASTM B633 Standard Specification of Electrodeposited Coatings of Zinc on Iron or Steel, 2013 Edition 9. ASTM B849 Standard Specification of Pre-Treatments of Iron or Steel for Reducing Risk of Hydrogen Embrittlement, 2013 Edition 10. ASTM B850 Standard Guide for Post-Coating Treatments of Steel for Reducing Risk of Hydrogen Embrittlement, 2009 Edition 11. ASTM E18 Standard Test Methods for Rockwell Hardness of Metallic Materials, 2014 Edition 12. ASTM E45 Standard Test Methods for Determining the Inclusion Content of Steel, 2011 Edition 13. ASTM F1137 Standard Specification for Phosphate/Oil Corrosion Protective Coatings for

9 Fasteners, 2011 Edition 14. ASTM F1470 Standard Practice for Fastener Sampling for Specified Mechanical Properties and Performance Inspection, 2012 Edition 15. ASTM F1940 Standard Test Method for Process Control Verification to Prevent Hydrogen Embrittlement in Plated or Coated Fasteners, 2007 Edition 16. ASTM F1941 Standard Specification for Electrodeposited Coatings on Threaded Fasteners 17. ISO EN