Polycrystalline VS Thin-film solar PV plant in-field performance, Southeast Asia

Transcription

1 Polycrystalline VS Thin-film solar PV plant in-field performance, Southeast Asia Setta Verojporn, Mott MacDonald Philip Napier-Moore, Mott MacDonald Xth December 2013 Solar Energy Southeast Asia IMPACT Arena, Bangkok, Thailand

2 Outline Mott MacDonald and Our Experience Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market & Technical Status Methodology Polycrystalline and Thin-film Performance Comparison Key Findings

3 Mott MacDonald and Our Experience Owner s and Independent Engineer roles for more than 1.2 GW of Solar PV plants in Thailand and SE Asia > 700 MW p for Independent Engineer roles > 500 MW p for Owner s Engineer roles In-depth energy yield assessment of Solar PV plants Factory auditor for many Solar PV manufacturers Dedicated Solar team across Thailand, India, South Africa and UK has supported over 3 GW of Solar PV projects globally

4 Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Market Status Global PV production by technology in % 13.5 % % 45.3 % Multi-Si Mono-Si Thin film Ribbon-Si Key influences - crystalline module market domination Maturity of the crystalline modules technologies Massive increase in production capacity leads to significant drop in c-si module prices in the past few years Generally higher efficiency for crystalline modules at Standard Test Condition (STC) Ref : ISE

5 Polycrystalline and Thin-Film Technical Status Highest confirmed module STC efficiencies by technology in % 20% 15% 10% 5% BUT! Thin-film modules are commonly known as the better performing technology at high ambient temperature low irradiance conditions 0% Mono-Si Multi-Si CIGS CdTe a-si Ref: NREL

6 Key Features Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant Thin-film Solar PV Plant Lower Operation Cost Lower Construction Cost Higher STC Efficiency Better LIB Lower PV Module Price Lower Temperature losses

7 Methodology In-field Data > > Validation Analysis Comparison Exercise > Based on the information provided from two solar PV plants in Thailand using: Polycrystalline PV modules Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: the validated performance modelling Plant design assumption Financial parameter assumption

8 In-field Operating Data Parameter Unit Resolution Measuring Device Global Horizontal Irradiance W/m 2 1 minute Horizontal Pyranometer Global Inclined Irradiance W/m 2 1 minute Inclined Pyranometer Inverter Input* kw 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device Inverter Output kw 1 minute Inverter Data Logging Device Ambient Temperature C 1 minute Ambient Temperature Sensor Module Temperature C 1 minute Module Temperature Sensor One-minute time-step resolution, synchronised Seven mostly clear-sky days, immediately after module cleaning These operating data were quality-checked to help ensure that only reliable data was used for further analysis *Not available for Polycrystalline plant due to inadequate uncertainty level of the measurement device at the inverter input

9 Validation Analysis In-field Operating Data Plant Design PV module Laboratory Test Result Validation Analysis + Modelling Error - PV Plant Performance Modelling

10 Validation Analysis Results Solar PV Plants using Calculated Energy compared to actual energy measured at Inverter Level Correlation Coefficient Polycrystalline Module 99.40% 99.49% Thin-film Module % 99.93% Energy output differences are within the margin of error or the metering equipment High correlation coefficient on a one minute basis Good agreement between Mott MacDonald s in-house modelling and actual plant performance under the observed environmental conditions for both plants

11 Methodology In-field Data > > Validation Analysis Comparison Exercise > Based on the information provided from two Solar PV plants in Thailand using: Polycrystalline PV modules Thin-film (Tandem Junction) PV modules Compare polycrystalline and thin-film plant performance at selected four locations in Southeast Asia from: the validated performance modelling Plant design assumption Financial parameter assumption

12 Comparison Exercise Four selected locations for the comparison exercise Manila, Philippines Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Annual GHI (kwh/m 2 ) Annual Average Ambient Temperature ( C) Lopburi* 1, Penang** 1, Banda Aceh** 1, Manila** 1, Banda Aceh, Indonesia *SERL, DEDE and TMD ** Meteonorm v7

13 Key Technical Assumptions Fixed module tilt angle is proposed for each location to maximise the irradiation received by the fixed solar modules in each location Similar PV module installation capacity Similar AC:DC Ratio of 1:1.22 Similar shading losses (entailing a greater land area for the thin film plant) Certain section of DC cable length for the thin-film plant is assumed to be twice that of the polycrystalline module PV plant due to the larger area required for thin-film module installation Similar central inverter model, AC cable size, and transformer model; No soiling losses, plant outages or grid outages; Land is not limited; and Durability of the plant to perform for a project lifetime of 25 years

14 Technical Comparison Results Normalised modelling results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location) Equivalent performance to polycrystalline plants line 0.98 Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh, Indonesia Manila, Philippines Performance Ratio* Accumulated Energy over 25 Year *Before taken into account degradation rate

15 Performance Comparison Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant Thin-film Solar PV Plant Higher STC Efficiency Better LIB Lower Temperature losses

16 Financial Parameter Assumptions Financial Parameters Polycrystalline PV module installed plants Thin-film PV module installed plants PV module price (USD/Wp) EPC Price excluding PV modules (USD/Wp) Total EPC Price (USD/Wp) CAPEX* (USD/Wp) OPEX (USD/kWp) OPEX Escalation Rate 4% 4% Discount Rate 10% 10% *Total EPC Price is assumed to be 80% of CAPEX

17 LCOE Comparison Results Normalised LCOE results of thin-film plants (relative to polycrystalline plants at each location) Equivalent LCOE to polycrystalline plants line Lopburi, Thailand Penang, Malaysia Banda Aceh, Indonesia Manila, Philippines *Before taken into account degradation rate

18 Performance Comparison Polycrystalline Solar PV Plant Thin-film Solar PV Plant Lower Operation Cost Lower Construction Cost Higher STC Efficiency Better LIB Lower PV Module Price Lower Temperature losses

19 Key Findings Thin-film PV module technology, based on this analysis, is considered competitive in terms of technical and economic performance at least in the Southeast Asia region. To select the best performing PV module technology for any specific site, Mott MacDonald continues to recommend a dedicated study employing where feasible a combination of available climatic conditions PV module laboratory test results in-field data from previous operating plants.

20 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION