OPERATION ANALYSIS OF LARGE SCALE SOLAR POWER GENERATION IN THAILAND

Transcription

1 Sept.4-6, 2013, Guangzhou, China OPERATION ANALYSIS OF LARGE SCALE SOLAR POWER GENERATION IN THAILAND Presented by Worrapong Wonglimamornlert Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) 1

2 QUESTIONS Q1 : What are the impacts of large PV power generation to power grid? Q2 : How are the investment outcomes through the currently Feed-in tariff? 2

3 AGENDA 1) Overview 2) Methodology 3) Technical Experiences 4) Financial Aspects 5) Opportunities and Risks 6) Conclusion 3

4 THAILAND ELECTRICITY SUPPLY INDUSTRY 2-10 MW MW PPA PPA VSPPs EGAT Gen IPP SPP EGAT Transmission System MEA End User PEA End User Direct Customers G O V E R N M E N T 4

5 1) OVERVIEW The Renewable and Alternative Energy Development Plan for 25 per cents in 10 years (AEDP: ) Source : 5

6 1) OVERVIEW Status of Thailand s Solar PV Generation Operating 546 MW Proposal 938 MW PPA Signed 1,400 MW Accept 7 MW Source : ERC, (2013) SPP and VSPP database 6

7 1) OVERVIEW Case Study : Lopburi Solar Project Capacity 73 MWdc 55 MWac Location Lopburi Province : Central Thailand PV Type Thin film PV panel Power Purchase Agreement Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand (EGAT) 7

8 1) OVERVIEW Case Study : Lopburi Solar Project 8

9 1) OVERVIEW Substation Switching Diagram PV Incoming Source : Transmission Operation Planning Department, Power System Control and Operation Division, EGAT 9

10 2. METHODOLOGY Technical Experiences Flicker Harmonic Voltage Unbalance Voltage Variation Financial Aspects Capacity Factor Internal rate of return (IRR) Comparison of Feed-in tariff 10

11 3. TECHNICAL EXPERIENCES Protocol for Grid Connection Connection Code Grid Code Service Code PRC-PQG-01/1998 (Thailand s Industry standard) 11

12 3. TECHNICAL EXPERIENCES Flicker Harmonic Short-term Severity value (Pst) Limit CBD March April May June July Pst values is fairly high due to the change in direction of power flow from (+) to (-) around 6-7 A.M., and from (-) to (+) around 3-6 P.M. but the values are not exceeding the standard. Order Limit March April May June July Harmonic Current (A) Order Order Order Order Order Order Harmonic currents are not exceeding the standard, but the 5 th and 7 th orders are significant due to the natures of power-electronic of PV power generation. 12

13 3. TECHNICAL EXPERIENCES Voltage Unbalance Limit CBD Voltage Unbalance (%u) March April May June July Voltage unbalances occur due to the change in direction of power flow from (+) to (-) around 6-7 A.M., and from (-) to (+) around 3-6 P.M. but the values are not exceeding the standard. Voltage Variation Upper Limit Lower Limit Voltage variations occur due to the change in direction of power flow and the fluctuation but the values are not exceeding the standard. 13

14 4. FINANCIAL ASPECTS Tariff = (Whole Sale Rate x Energy) + (Ft Rate x Energy) + (Adder rate x Energy) Adder (Baht/kWh) Supporting period Fuel Adder ($/kwh) (Years) VSPP SPP Wind power - Install capacity <= 50 kw Install capacity > 50 kw Solar Power - PV Type 8.00/ / / Source : T. Sawai. Solar adder: Thailand s lesson learned Whole sale rate Ft Rate : Electricity price EGAT sale to PEA, MEA : Uncontrollable costs that relate to power generation Tariff Rate Peak Period Off-Peak Period Baht/kWh $/kwh Baht/kWh $/kwh Whole Sale Ft Rate Remark : 1 $ = 30 baht : Tariff rate at June

15 4. FINANCIAL ASPECTS Results from case study Assumptions : Capacity = 55 MW Energy output = 99,935, kwh/year Capital cost = $203 million (Estimated cost from Operating period = 25 years Term of contract = 5 years and renewal Results : Capacity Factor : 20.68% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) :14.43%. 15

16 4. FINANCIAL ASPECTS Comparison of Feed-In Tariff (FIT) Country Total MW 2012 W/capita Feed-in tariff ($) Support period (Years) Germany 32, Italy 16, Czech Republic 2, Thailand Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Source: EPIA. Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaic (Belgium, 2013) 16

17 5. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Opportunities Green Energy Trend Global warming issues Global PV Price Trend Cost declined since 2009 Government Support Adder rate Income tax exemption 17

18 5. OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Risks Operational risks PV Panel Degradation around 1 % per year Community Relations Ground wires losses Agricultural area impact Solar glint and glare hazard Regulatory Legal and Political Policy risks Adjusted Feed-in tariff 18

19 6. CONCLUSION The Large PV has the impacts to Thailand s Power Grid but not exceed the protocol. The Adder rate is the most successful incentive mechanism to increase PV penetrations PV together with other distributed generation are expected to be significant in the future power network planning. 19

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