The Causal Relationship among Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Saving and Economic Growth in Jordan during the Period ( )

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1 Ieraioal Joural of Busiess ad Maageme; Vol., No. 1; 2015 ISSN E-ISSN Published by Caadia Ceer of Sciece ad Educaio The Causal Relaioship amog Foreig Direc Ivesme, Domesic Savig ad Ecoomic Growh i Jorda durig he Period ( ) Aif Issa Baarseh 1 & Izz Eddie N. Aazeh 1 1 Faculy of Admiisraive ad Fiacial Scieces, Philadelphia Uiversiy, Jorda Correspodece: Aif Issa Baarseh, Faculy of Admiisraive ad Fiacial Scieces, Philadelphia Uiversiy, Jorda. aif_baarseh@yahoo.com Received: November 3, 2014 Acceped: December 8, 2014 Olie Published: December 20, 2014 doi:.5539/ijbm.v1p73 URL: hp://dx.doi.org/.5539/ijbm.v1p73 Absrac The research aims a aalyzig he causal relaioship amog Foreig Direc Ivesme, Domesic savig ad Ecoomic Growh i Jorda durig he period ( ). The Co-iegraio Tes of Johase shows ha foreig direc ivesme ad domesic savig are i he log ru relaioship wih real icome growh i Jorda. Whereas, he impac of foreig direc ivesme o ecoomic growh is saically sigifica while he impac of domesic savig is o saisically sigifica o ecoomic growh i he log ru i Jorda. The resuls of error correcio model show ha: ECT (Error Correcio Term) is %, egaive ad saisically sigifica a α= 1% which meas ha he shor ru values of GDP coverge i's log ru equilibrium level by % speed of adjusme every year by coribuio of Foreig Direc Ivesme (FDI) ad Domesic savig (DS) i Jorda. Grager Causaliy Tes show ha foreig direc ivesme i Jorda is oupu ad savig drive which meas ha if icome ad savig icreases, Jorda will arac more foreig direc ivesme. Keywords: causal relaioship, ecoomic growh, foreig direc ivesme, domesic savig 1. Iroducio Jorda is a coury which is classified as oe of 20 couries ha follow UNCTAD (world ivesme repor 2013) bechmar of ivesme. i s highly ope for aracio of iflows of foreig direc ivesme, he mea reaso for iflow or he opeess of he foreig direc ivesme (FDI) of he compay is he icrease i he liberalizaio ad he privaizaio i he coury, i addiio o may oher facors lie ivesme ecouragemes legislaios, joiig he world rade orgaizaio (WTO). FDI is a impora eleme for developig ecoomies o oly because of icreasig supply of capial, bu also helpig huma capial formaio wih echology rasfer. Salahuddi e al. (20) say ha he effec of FDI o growh is a heoreical ad empirical fac ad affecs growh i 2 ways: Firs: i coribues o growh by capial accumulaio which helps i corporaio of ew ipus io he producio chaels of he coury, herefore producio ca be improved by foreig echology rasfer. Secod: owledge rasfer helps o improve labor raiig, ad sill acquisiio. Tag e al (2008) also sae ha FDI helps couries o overcome heir capial shorages ad whe here is a high ris area, or whe he domesic ivesme is limied. Louzi. B ad Abadi. A (2011) foud ha FDI iflows do o exer ad idepede ifluece o ecoomic growh i Jorda. O he oher had, here are some sudies i lieraure ha show he relaioship bewee domesic savig (DS) ad ecoomic growh, heoreically associaio amog domesic savig (DS) ad icome was explaied by Harrod (1939) ad Domar (1946) models: which sa if here is a high level of savig i a coury, i provides fuds for firms o borrow ad ives. Ivesme ca icrease he capial soc of a ecoomy ad geerae ecoomic growh hrough he icreases i producio of goods ad services. Alguacil e al (2004) ivesigae he role of DS i coribuig o ecoomic growh by Solow s (1956) ype growh model which saes higher savig causes ecoomic growh. Rexford Abaidoo (2012) showed ui-direcioal causal relaioship ruig from gross regioal savig growh o GDP growh i Sub-Sahara Africa. The casual relaioship bewee FDI ad DS is also ivesigaed i he lieraure (Salahuddi e al., 20) sae he fac ha FDI ad DS have bi-direcioal relaioship, bu sroger from DFI o 73

2 DS from he prospecive of Bagladesh. Tag e al (2008), sae ha FDI has a sigifica effec o icreasig DS i he case of Chia which has a high rae of ecoomic growh. Al. Abdulrazag ad Baaieh (2007), shows ha a posiive relaioship rus from FDI o e domesic savig i Jorda. 1.1 Objecives of he Sudy The aim of his research is o aalyze he aure ad he direcio of he causal relaioship amog FDI, DS ad Ecoomic Growh i he case of Jorda which is oe of he aracive Foreig Ivesmes i he Middle Eas Regio. 2. Lieraure Review Empirical evidece from differe couries suggess ha FDI ad DS play a impora role i coribuig o ecoomic growh. The relaioship bewee FDI ad Ecoomic growh is cosiderably ivesigaed i he lieraure. Edogeous growh models are also used by researchers. The model which is esablished by Boreszai e al. (1998) show ha ecoomic growh is composed of (FDI, huma capial, Gov expediure, domesic savig, iflaio rae), hey fid posiive effec of FDI iflows o ecoomic growh, while FDI ad DS have a complemeary relaioship. Tag e al. (2008) used vecor auo-regressive model (VAR) o ivesigae he relaioship amog (FDI, domesic ivesme, ad ecoomic growh) i case of Chia, ad foud a complemeary impac of foreig direc ivesme o local ivesme, meaig ha (FDI simulaes local ivesmes ad his causes a high ecoomic growh i case of Chia). Louzi. B, Abadi. A. (2011) resul shows ha FDI iflows do o exer a idepede ifluece o ecoomic growh, ad also he impac of domesic ivesme o he growh rae of GDP is foud o be posiive. Alhasaweh Mohaad (2013) sudy cofirms he srog ad posiive relaioship bewee ecoomic growh of Qaar ad FDI iflows. Regardig he lieraure reviews ha are relaed o he relaioship bewee domesic savig ad ecoomic growh ad he relaioship bewee FDI ad DS, here are umber of sudies: Solow s growh model (1956) shows he relaioship bewee savig ad ecoomic growh. Algyacil e al (2004) suppored Solow s growh model (1956) ad saed ha: higher savig level causes capial accumulaio ad capial accumulaio icreases GDP. i heir sudy, hey used yearly figures for Mexico for ( ), ad Grager Causaliy Tes are carried ou o see he relaioship bewee savig ad growh. ad hey foud he a causal relaioship from savig o growh i he Mexico s ecoomy. Moha (2006) resul suggess ha he ecoomic growh rae Grager causes growh rae of savig i 13 couries by sudyig he relaioship bewee he domesic savig ad ecoomic growh for various ecoomies, bu he mai coclusio of he sudy is ha icome class of a coury does play a impora role i deermiig he direcio of causaliy. Al-Abdulrazag ad Baaieh (2007) ivesigae empirically he causal relaioship bewee foreig direc ivesme FDI ad e domesic savig i Jorda over he period ( ), he ulimae goal of he paper is o aswer he quesio of wheher he FD iflow is a complemeary of subsiue o domesic savig i Jorda. The empirical resul of he sudy show ha FDI is a complemeary raher ha subsiuive, ha is a posiive causal relaioship rus from FDI o e domesic savig. Odhiambo (2009) explais he imporace of savig for ecoomic growh ad saes ha whe here is a icrease i savig domesic ivesme grows ad a growh i domesic ivesme leads o a icrease i real icome, especially i he developig couries. Also he fids bidirecioal causaliy bewee DS ad real icome growh i he case of Souh Africa. Salahuddi (20) aemps o ivesigae he log ru relaioship bewee foreig direc ivesme ad gross domesic savig i he case of Bagladesh, Johase coegraio ad error correcio mehods are employed, he fidig suggess ha here exiss boh log ru ad shor ru relaioship bewee foreig direc ivesme ad gross domesic savig i Bagladesh. 3. Mehodology ad Daa The daa ses used are aual figures for he period of ( ) ad variables are: gross domesic produc (GDP), foreig direc ivesme (FDI), ad domesic savig (DS). The daa obaied from aual repors ad yearly saisical series ( ) of he ceral ba of Jorda (CBJ) ad deparme of saisic (DOS) i Jorda. GDP figures are i curre prices JD, while FDI ad DS are i perce of GJP, all variable are rasformed io aural logarihm o capure growh effecs. I his research, hree ypes of aalysis were employed, firs: Augmeed Dicey Fuller (ADF) 1981, o es uie roo of he FDI, DS, ad GDP. Secod: Johase ad Juselius (1990) es were employed o assess he log ru equilibrium relaioship bewee GDP ad is possible deermias of DS ad FDI. Third: Grager-Causaliy Tes was applied i order o ideify he direcio of causaliy bewee variables i his research. 74

3 The prese research suggess ha FDI ad DS migh be deermias of GDP, herefore he fucioal relaioship i his sudy ca be show as follows: GDP = F(FDI, DS) (1) Where GDP real icome is a fucio of foreig direc ivesme (FDI) ad domesic savig (DS). he equaio (1) ca be expressed i Logarihmic form as follows (o capure growh impacs). L GDP = β0 + β1 l FDI + β2 l Ds +ε (2) Where: a period, l GDP is he aural log of real icome, l FDI is he aural log of he foreig direc ivesme variable, l DS is he aural log of Domesic Savig ad Ԑ is error erm, he co-efficie of β1 ad β2 gives us elasiciies of FDI ad DS variables respecively i he log erm period (Kaircioglu, 20). 3.1 Ui Roo Tes Augmeed Dicey -Fuller Tes (ADF) is carried ou o es he saioary of series ad o deermie he possible co-iegraio ad he level of iegraio bewee variables. Eders (1995) suggess ha we should sar oes for ui roos for he mos geeral model (by icludig red ad iercep) ha is: P 1 2 y I 2 Δy y (3) 0 Where y is he variable, : red, a: iercep, Ԑ: Gaussia whie oise ad p: he lag level. The ADF es focuses o -saisics ad -es for λ, he Null hypohesis is ha he series is o-saioary: rejecig of his Null hypohesis, meaig ha he co-efficie is sigificaly differe from Zero, if series is o-saioary a level (we accep H0), he we ae he firs differece o mae i saioary, if series is saioary, he i s called I(0), bu if i s o saioary i s called I(1). 3.2 Co-Iegraio Tes Co-iegraio amog variables should be esed ad he validiy of he log ru equilibrium relaioship should be ideified i his research Trace Tes of he Johase Approach was used o es he co-iegraio which suggess ha series mus be i he same order of iegraio, I(1) or I(2) if hey are o I(0). The Johase Trace Tes helps o ideify he umber of co-iegraig vecors (or relaioship) bewee variables a leas oe coiegraig vecor is eeded i order o have co-iegraio amog variables(awad, Talip ad Mahadi Mali 2011). The Johase ad Juselius (1990) approach allows us o esimae co-iegraig vecors bewee he se of regressors ad a depede variable, ad i is coemporary approach o avoid he problems which arise from Egel ad Grager (1987) mehodology. The Johase mehodology ca be expressed i he followig VAR model: X = II1X II X - + µ +e (for =1,..T) (4) Where X, X-1, X- are vecors of level ad lagged values of P variables respecively which are I(1) i he model. II1, II are co-efficie marices wih (P P). A dimesio, µ is a iercep vecor ad e is a vecor of radom error (Kaircioglu e al., 2007). The umber of Lagged values is deermied by he assumpio ha error erm are o auo-correlaed, he ra of II is he umber of co-iegraig vecor (i.e.r) which is deermied by esig wheher is Eige values (λi) are saisically sigifica, Johase ad Juselius (1990) propose ha usig he Eige values for compuaio of Trace saisics (Kaircioglu, 2007). The race saisics λrace ca be compued by he followig formula : λrace = -T l (1- λi), i = r+1,..,-1 (5) Ad he ull hypohesis are: H0: V=0 H1: V 1 H0: V 1 H1: V 2 H0: V 2 H1: V Error Correcio Model ad Grager Causaliy Tes There is a assumpio ha he real icome i Equaio (2) may o immediaely adjus o is log ru 75

4 equilibrium level followig a chage i ay of is deermias (Kaircioglu, 20) hece, discrepacy bewee he shor ru ad he log ru level of icome ca be ivesigaed by he followig error correcio model: IGDP o 1 IGDP - j 2 IFDIi- j 3 IDSi- j 4 1 (6) Where Δ shows a chage i he GDP, FDI ad DS are variables ad ε -1 is he oe period lagged error correcio erm (ECT), which is ae from Equaio (2), he ECT i Equaio (6) show how fas he disequilibrium bewee he shor ru ad he log ru values of depede variable is elimiaed each period he expeced sig of ECT is egaive (Kaircioglu, 20) : Grager causaliy where employed i his research i order o esimae he direcio of causaliy amog he variables, Grager heory implies ha, error correcio models are eeded o Augme he simple causaliy ess wih he Error Correcio Mechaism ad are composed of he residuals preseaio ca be lie he followig Equaios: IY C o IX C o i IY - i 2 IFDIi- j i IX i iect 1 (7) Yi IX- i i IY i i IX i iect 1 (8) Where Y ad X are series of cosideraio ad Φ i ad φi are he co-efficie of ECT-1 ha deoes he Error Correcio Term i boh models, Δ idicaes firs differece of he variables i equaio (7), X (idepede variable) Grager causes Y (Depede variable if Φ i is saisically sigifica. i Equaio (8) (Y idepede variable) Grager causes X (depede variable) if φi is saisically sigifica, F-saisic is used o es he joi ull hypohesis of αi, δi =0 ad es is employed o esimae he sigificace of he Error correcio coefficie. 3.4 Empirical Resuls The ui roo es for saioary of he variables is ivesigaed by he ADF, Table 1 show ha all variables were due o ess for ui roo a heir level forms ad firs differece. Table 1. Saioary es (ui roo es) ADF Saisical (level) variable (ADF) Ti Lag (ADF) Tw Lag (ADF) T Lag L GDP (0) (0) (0) l FDI (0) (0) (1) l DS (0) (0) (0) saisical (firs differece) variable (ADF) Ti lag (ADF) Tw lag (ADF) T Lag Δl GDP * (0) * (0) ** (1) Δl FDI * (0) * (0) * (0) Δl DS * (1) * (1) * (0) Noe. GDP represes real gross domesic produc, FDI is he foreig direc ivesme iflows, DS is he domesic savig, all of he series are logarihmic, Ti sads for he mos geeral model wih a iercep ad red, Tw 1is he wih a iercep bu wihou red, T is he oe wihou iercep ad wihou red, Numbers i parehesis are opimum lags of ADF es, ui roo ess were performed from he mos geeral o he mos resriced model as also suggesed by Eders (1995). *represes he rejecio of he ull hypohesis a alpha 1 perce, ** a alpha 5 perce ad *** a alpha perce respecively ; ess were carried i E-views Johase Co-Iegraio Resuls Johase Co-iegraio ess ca be oly used for hose o- saioary variables which are iegraed wih he same order of d : i his research all hree variables were foud as I(1) ad he ess were employed o GDP, FDI ad DS i order o search for possible Co-iegraio amog hem, i our proposed model depede variable is GDP while DS ad FDI are idepede variables, ad he Johase es i his research icludes 3 hypohesis: firs: he ull hypohesis which saes ha here are o co-iegraio vecors amog variables. Secod: he aleraive hypohesis saes ha he umber of co-iegraio vecors are less ha or equal o oe ad he hird oe is ha: vecors are a mos wo. 76

5 Accordig o es resuls i able 2: race saisics i he firs hypohesis are greaer ha criical value a alpha 5 perce: herefore he firs ull hypohesis ca be rejeced a his level which suggess ha here is a leas oe co-iegraig vecor, ad herefore a log ru relaioship could be iferred bewee real GDP ad is Explaaory variables of FDI ad DS i Jorda. Table 2. Johase es for co iegraio Hypohesized Eige value Trace saisic 1 perce criical 5 perce criical value NO. of CE (s) value Noe * * A mos A mos Noe. Trace Tes idicaes 1 co iegraig equaio (s) a he 5%; * deoes rejecio of he hypohesis a he 5% level of sigifa. 3.6 Error Correcio Model Resul ad Level Co-Efficies Accordig o Co-iegraio resuls, log ru vecors were foud bewee GDP ad is regressors, i he ex sep, we eed o esimae he level (or log erm co-efficie) of he model of GDP= F(FDI, DS) ad is ECM(Error correcio mechaism) i order o esimae shor erm co-efficie ad error correcio erm (ECT). Table 3 shows he level equaio resuls ad ECM resuls, i his research differe lag level were ried uil 7 (Pidyc & Rubifeld, 1991) shor erm co-efficie ca be see i able (3) shor erm co-efficie of FDI are o saisically sigifica a α levels, also shor erm co-efficie of DS are o saisically sigifica i geeral bu oly a lag 7, shor erm effec of DS o GDP is saisically sigifica a α = 0.05 which meas ha if DS icreases by 1%, GDP of Jorda decreases by % i he shor erm. Table 3. Error correcio model, level equaio Co iegraig Eq Coi Eq 1 (-1) LFDI (-1) (0.6011) [ ] LDS (-1) ( ) [ ] C Error correcio D () Coi Eq ( ) [ ] D ( (-1)) D (LFDI (-1)) D(LDS(-1)) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-2)) D (LFDI (-2)) D (LDS(-2)) ( ) (0.030) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-3)) D (LFDI(-3)) D(LDS(-3)) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-4)) D (LFDI (-4)) D (LDS(-4)) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-5)) D (LFDI (-5)) D (LDS(-5)) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-6)) D (LFDI (-6)) D (LDS(-6))

6 ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] D ( (-7)) D (LFDI (-7)) D (LDS(-7)) ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] R- squared Adj. R- squared sum sq. resids S.E. equaio F- saisic Log lielihood Aaie AIC Schwarz SC Mea Depede S.D depede Aaie iformaio crierio Schwarz crierio Table 3 shows ha ECT is %, Negaive ad saisically sigifica a α=0.01, he figure shows ha shor ru values of GDP coverge o is log ru Equilibrium level by % speed of adjusme every year by he coribuio of FDI ad DS. Also from level Equaio figures we ca see ha whe FDI icreases by 1%, GDP icreases by % i log erm ad is saisicall sigifica a α = 0., o he oher had whe here is a icrease i DS by 1 %, GDP decreases by % i he log erm, bu is o saisically sigifica. 3.7 Grager Causaliy Resuls Afer co-iegraio ad ECM aalysis are doe ad co-iegraio vecors foud bewee variables, Grager Causaliy Tes mus be applied as meioed before. Table 4 shows he resul of Grager Causaliy Tes, he resul shows ha here is a sigle causaliy ruig from Ds o FDI, from GDP o FDI ad from GDP o DS. They are all because of he fac ha he ull hypohesis of o causaliy ca be rejeced a a give level of α values i Table 4, Ay bidirecioal causaliy could o be observed amog variables. Table 4. Grager causaliy es Excluded Chi- sq Prob. Df Excluded Chi-sq Prob. df LDS * LFDI *** LDS ** ** LDS *** *** Noe. *, **, ad ***, represe Prob values a 8, 9, ad lag level respecively; Abou he opimal lag selecio i order o mae sure ha resul are o sesiive o he opimum laglegh selecio, I prefer aleraive lag leghs from 1 o sice he NO' os observaio are saisfacory (See pidyc ad Rubiheld 1991). 4. Coclusio The resul of his research show ha a log relaioship bewee real GDP ad is explaaory variables of FDI ad DS, so i suggess ha FDI ad DS are i he logerm equilibrium relaioship wih he real icome (Ecoomic growh i Jorda). The resuls of Error Correcio Model show ha: I). Error Correcio Term (ECT) is % egaive ad saisically sigifica a α =0,01, which meas ha he shor ru values of GDP coverge o is log ru equilibrium level by % speed of adjusme every year by he coribuio of FDI ad DS i Jorda. II). he log ru erm (level equaio) shows ha he impac of FDI o ecoomic growh is saisically sigifica whereas he impac of DS is o saisically sigifica o ecoomic growh i Jorda. The log ru Grager Causaliy Tess have show ha here is a sigle causaliy ruig from DS o FDI, from GDP o FDI ad from GDP o DS, ad his research refers o a moveme i DS precedes a moveme i FDI, while a moveme i GDP precedes a moveme i FDI ad DS. These resuls show ha FDI ad DS are oupu (GDP) drive i Jorda. 78

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