USING A MAP OF SHORT TERM STATISTICS IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING BUSINESS SURVEYS

Transcription

1 Jacek Kowalewski Cetral Statistical Office of olad Statistical Office i ozań USING A MA OF SHORT TERM STATISTICS IN THE ROCESS OF ORGANIZING BUSINESS SURVEYS Short-term statistics (STS) ivolves collectig, processig ad providig timely ad multi-discipliary iformatio i the area of ecoomy. I olad STS is maily coducted through the DG-1 survey, which is a large survey (coverig over 30,000 eterprises) coducted o a mothly basis over a short period of time, with a complex system of data processig (likage of data from other surveys, geeralizatio ad coversio of data ito fixed prices). The eed to reduce the respodet burde ad the developmet of ew iformatio ad statistical techologies call for a cocerted effort aimed at optimizig the orgaizatio of statistical surveys. Oe example of such a effort is the developmet of a map of short-term statistics coceived as a tool eablig the creatio of a itegrated ad ordered kowledge about the survey. 1. A map of a system of statistical surveys A map of a system of statistical surveys should be uderstood as a geeralized, itegrated ad order descriptio of the orgaizatio of statistical surveys cotaiig the followig elemets: Basic iformatio about surveys cotaiig: survey scope, target populatio, survey frequecy, survey admiistratio date, data collectio methods, survey implemetatio. A descriptio of iput data (X) sources ad forms of data; iput variables, quality assessmet criteria (umber of refusals, missig data, error estimates). A descriptio of survey results 1 (Y) i.e. the format (raw data, adjusted seasoally or o a workig day basis, tred), form of presetatio (idicator, absolute value), date ad place of releasig data or makig them available. A descriptio of the trasformatio of iput data ito results, which is essetial for further, more i-depth aalyses. It ca be depicted as show i Fig. 1. Trasformatios ca vary ad a estimate of a output variable y i is obtaied by trasformig oe or more iput variables X y i f (X ) (1) Oe way of describig iterrelatios betwee variables, which is useful for purposes of aalysig the whole system, is to preset them i the form of a matrix of trasformatios M. Fig. 1. The process of data trasformatio 1 A iterestig (ad very extesive i its ow right) discussio of the defiitio of statistical surbeys ad their results ca be foud i e.g..: [Sudgre 2003] ad [Stefaowicz 2007], 1

2 where m ij 1 0 m m j... m1 M... m ij m m m1... mj... mm, whe iput variable x i is used to estimate the value of variable y j, otherwise (2) 2. A map of short-term statistics Accordig to the above defiitio, A map of short-term statistics (MSTS) is a iformatio system, which describes ad orders key elemets related to survey orgaisatio ad the distributio of results produced by short-term statistics. Fig. 2. Characteristics of the map of short-term statistics Cosiderig the high iformatio value of short-term idicators, they are produced ot oly for Eurostat, but are also available for atioal istitutios, such as the govermet ad the cetral bak, ad for fiacial markets, where they are used to aalyse the coutry s curret ecoomic situatio ad make decisios about ecoomic ad fiacial policies. 2

3 New orders Domestic ew orders No-domestic ew orders New orders to the euro zoe Turover Domestic turover No-domestic turover Domestic turover to the euro zoe Sold productio at costat prices - prelimiary results Sold productio at costat prices - fial results Sold productio at curret prices Labour productivity at curret prices Labour productivity at costat prices Q u e s t i o a i r e DG-1 C-01 Fig. 3. Destiatios for short-term data The map of short-term statistics cotais iformatio about level of detail required by differet users ad release dates. It is also a kid of guide of GUS publicatios. The kowledge about users of statistical iformatio is a ecessary prerequisite for a i-depth aalysis ad assessmet of their iformatio eeds, which provide the ratioale for possible chages i survey orgaisatio to meet users requiremets. Iput variable Output variable Net reveues from the sale of products Net reveues from the sale of products to the euro zoe Net reveues from the sale of products for the o-domestic market Net reveues from the sale of goods ad materials Net reveues from the sale of goods ad materials to the euro zoe Net reveues from the sale of goods ad materials for the o-domestic market Value of maufactured products ot classified as sales Received ew orders Received o-domestic ew orders Received ew orders to euro zoe Excise tax o goods ad materials Excise tax o products of ow productio Subsidies Avarage paid employmet rice idices of sold productio (previous moth=100) rices of the sale of represetative products ad services (excludig VAT ad excise taxes) i the previous moth rices of the sale of represetative products ad services (excludig VAT ad excize taxes) i curret moth The value of the sale of represetative products ad services (excludig VAT ad excize taxes) Fig. 4. art of the Matrix of variables - maufacturig 3

4 3. Usig the map of short-term statistics i the process of survey aalysis A map of a system of statistical surveys is useful ot oly because it brigs order to a certai body of kowledge, but also because by itroducig additioal parameters it ca serve various aalyses coected with the process of producig ad distributig statistical iformatio. For this reaso it is ecessary to determie for each output variable y i certai characteristics, as show i Fig. 5. Fig. 5. Assigig characteristics to a output variable For short-term statistics, the followig assumptios have bee adopted as to the criteria: riority (weight) 3 categories of output iformatio have bee distiguished. The largest weight has bee assiged to data, which are to be estimated i order to comply with iteratioal obligatios or atioal regulatios. The lowest priority has bee give to supplemetary iformatio. Release date output values have bee adopted o the basis of data release practices that have bee i use so far, which are described i MSTS. The cost of obtaiig a variable has bee calculated by decomposig the total cost of a survey (as described i the Survey rogramme of ublic Statistics) by meas of a matrix of trasformatio M. As a result of calculatios, supplemetary iformatio has bee obtaied about the process of implemetig surveys i short-term statistics. A few isights are worth highlightig: I the DG-1 ad C-01 surveys, 62 iput variables are used to produce aually over 450,000 reports coverig 9 topic areas, 72 output variables ad over 100,000 released figures. Average mothly wage is the largest output variable group, which cosists of 19,500 figures. relimiary results (for Average employmet ad Average wage) are available as early as the 16 th busiess day followig the ed of the moth. 49% of variables used are mothly data, which accout for 96.5% of all values estimated i the two surveys. Additioally, 2/3 of mothly output variables have the highest priority. The average cost per oe report is LN 42, but the average amout ecessary to estimate oe value is as much as LN 185, with cosiderable discrepacies betwee the cost of differet output variables (Base amout beig the most expesive oe, with the cost of estimatig oe value amoutig to as much as LN 400,000, ad Average employmet beig the least expesive, with the cost of estimatig oe value at LN 3). The maximum cost of estimatig a sigle output variable, uderstood as a group, has bee calculated for the Idicator of producers prices o the domestic market to be LN 1.6 millio. To estimate Sales of costructio-assembly productio by types of buildig, as may as 14 iput variables are required. The same umber of iput variables are used oly oce to calculate output variables, while 6 iput variables are used to estimate quarterly or aual data. 4

5 4. Summary I the moder world of iformatio society public statistics ot oly has to provide reliable ad up-todate iformatio about the socio-ecoomic situatio of the coutry, but also be able to quickly respod to the chagig eeds of users of statistical data. Chages are also required to make use of moder telecommuicatio techologies ad ew sources of data. For this reaso, ew surveys eed to be adapted to respod to chagig coditios. A map of statistical surveys is a tool, which ca be useful for studyig these processes because: - it provides essetial, itegrated iformatio about implemeted surveys, which helps to idetify ed users ad release dates, ad describes relatioships betwee differet variables. I other words, the map provides a quick aswer to questios about what, where, whe ad how. - it has a motivatioal aspect statistical surveys are usually highly complex processes, require the ivolvemet of large groups of employees ad a precise divisio of tasks. This ofte leads to the isolatio of activities ad lack of awareess of the overall purpose of idividual tasks. The map of statistical surveys offers a wider view of the idea of aalysis ad data release, raises the awareess of the sigificace of the results ad the overall purpose of the survey. I the ed, it provides a aswer to the questio of who ad what the survey is coducted for, which is ecessary to justify the eormous expese of time ad moey required to obtai ad process all the iformatio. - it help to coduct i-depth aalyses. Give certai assumptios, the map helps to precisely determie the cost of obtaiig differet variables, quickly idetify iput variables ecessary to obtai high priority iformatio, possible delays i data release dates. - it ca help to optimize surveys. A matrix of trasformatios with precisely described ad quatified criteria is a ecessary prerequisite to determie the optimal way of data processig i statistical surveys, which ca be obtaied by solvig a problem i mathematical modellig. - it ca be useful to itegrate statistical forms. Bibliography [1] Sudgre B., 2003, Developig ad Implemetig Statistical Metadata Systems. A Network of Excellece for Harmoisig ad Sythesisig the Developmet of Statistical Metadata, EROS roject Number IST , [2] Stefaowicz B., 2007, Iformacyje systemy zarządzaia. rzewodik. Szkoła Główa Hadlowa, Warszawa 5