Limits to Growth v Finite Mineral Resources:

Transcription

1 Dr Gavin M Mudd Environmental Engineering, Monash University Limits to Growth v Finite Mineral Resources: Revisiting the Assumptions December 21 th Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering & Science, Auckland, New Zealand 4 th eng.monash.edu.au/enveng

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3 Latrobe Valley Field, Victoria Yallourn Hazelwood Loy Yang /3

4 Presentation Overview 1972 Limits to Growth Counter Arguments Basics of Mining Data 11 Case Studies coal, iron ore, platinum group metals (PGMs) Pearls of Wisdom /4

5 The Infamous Limits to Growth In 1972, young scientists published a best seller on the real sustainability challenges: Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome LtG examined trends in population, resource use, pollution, consumption, economics, LtG included the World3 model a systems dynamics linking these aspects of the modern world and projecting to 21 LtG predicted global collapse by 25 under business as usual /5

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7 Peak Oil: The Inevitable Decline Energy Watch Group, 27 /7

8 Counter Argument: LtG wrong? Many industries and researchers attacked LtG, arguing they were overly pessimistic or their 5 th decimal place was kinda wrong The essence of the counter argument is that human ingenuity will always find a way to solve problems, even before they arise (!) Technology and economics especially will allow corrections to address these issues Mining industry particularly critical /8

9 Mining Data 11 Unlike financial regulation, there is actually an abundance of production data on minerals and metals over time Most data is contained mineral/metal, but other critical data can be compiled too ore grades (%Cu, g/t Au), waste rock, ore types, mine type (open cut v underground), remaining economic resources Ironically, mineral production now is greater than ever before for almost everything /9

10 LtG v Coal #1 Annual Black Coal Production (raw) (Gt/year) Australia Canada USA World China Black & Brown Coal Resources (Gt) Economic Resources - Black Inferred Resources - Black Economic Resources - Brown Inferred Resources - Brown Australia (only) /1

11 LtG v Coal #2 1 Australia (only) 9 QLD NSW TAS Proportion Derived by Open Cut Mines (%) Black & Brown Coal Black Coal (only) Overburden:Coal (Raw) Ratio (m 3 :t) WA SA VIC Australia by State /11

12 LtG v Iron Ore # Canadian Production 4 35 Economic Resources Inferred Resources Iron Ore Production & Exports (Mt) USA Global Production Global Exports Australia Iron Ore Resources (Gt) /12

13 LtG v Iron Ore #2 7 1 Iron (%Fe) Silica (%SiO 2 ) Iron Ore Grades (%Fe) Australia Brazil Canada China Sweden USA USA (raw ore) USSR/Russia World (estimated) Ore Quality 1.1 Manganese (%Mn) Phosphorous (%P) Moisture (%) Alumina (%Al 2 O 3 ) /13

14 LtG v Platinum Group Metals #1 5 35, US$/kg PGM United States 3, 1998 US$/kg PGM 25, Annual PGM Production (t) Price (US$/kg PGM) 2, 15, 1, 5, Russia 1 South Africa Canada /14

15 LtG v Platinum Group Metals #2 8 Mine & Concentrator 8 Bafokeng-Rasimone Lebowa Unit GHG Emissions (t CO2-e/kg 4E PGMs) Mine, Concentrator & Smelter y = 14.97x R 2 =.387 Unit GHG Emissions (t CO2/kg PGM) Potgietersrust Rustenberg Marula Implats Amandelbult Union Zimplats Lonmin Ore Grade (4E g/t) /15

16 Pearls of Wisdom Despite its critics, LtG has proven itself against the test of time basic assumptions have proven reasonable at a global level For most minerals substantial economic resources remain (though some are less certain) The major long-term constraint on mineral resources will be environmental (or even social) (or even social): energy, greenhouse emissions, water, land use, demand, recycling /16

17 Acknowledgements Vicky Adin,, Assoc. Prof. Carol Boyle & the NZSSES Conference crew Colleagues in mining research (esp. D Giurco,, L Mason, T Prior, S Mohr, various CSIRO folks) CSIRO Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster Numerous papers behind this research just me if interested /17