Introduction Materials scarcity in general, exponential growth

Transcription

1 Materials scarcity Energy Day Eindhoven University of Technology September 16, 2010 Dr. A.M. Diederen, MEngSci Tel: Mob: P.O. Box 45 NL-2280 AA Rijswijk TNO Defence, Security and Safety Physical Protection & Survivability Rijswijk, The Netherlands Contents Introduction Materials scarcity in general, exponential growth Energy scarcity means metals scarcity Energy scarcity as central constraint Resources: quality versus quantity Uneven geographic distribution and depletion Consequences of metals scarcity Technology: wishful thinking is not a strategy Metals scarcity interferes with energy transition Adaptation framework Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope Opportunities Conclusions 2

2 Materials scarcity: what matters is productionrate Production quantity exponential growth Most important limits: - depletion of resources of higher quality and with better accessibility - energy scarcity - lack of capital A B Time 3 Exponential growth Growth Doubling [% per year] time [years]

3 Examples (primary production per year) gold Source: ASPO 5 Energy scarcity probability? probability? circa 2030 Source: The Olduvai Theory, Richard C. Duncan, 1989 and

4 Elements of the Earth s crust: the bulk is out of reach 0.1% by mass < 0.1% by mass 7 extremely energy intensive to extract Source: Exploring the resource base Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, 2001 Lower ore grades require huge amounts of energy to concentrate metals from Energy Ore grade (%) 8 Source: Ore grade, metal production and energy, Page & Creasy, J. Res. USGS, 1975

5 Decreasing ore grades, illustrated by the case of Australia Source: The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future, Mudd, October Constant ore grades but less favourable locations still more energy needed for concentration example: copper copper ore grade the production of 1 ton of copper is associated with 250 tons of solid waste (Monash University, 2007) 10

6 The Earth s crust is so big is true and at the same quite useless information See next slide out of reach due to energy scarcity 11 Exploration of major mineral deposits and the Law of diminishing returns low expectations of yet to be discovered major deposits, Raw Materials Group Graph: Raw Materials Group, Sweden 12

7 In the USA primary production of most US peak production metals peaked before the 1980s Ag Mn Bauxite Hg Sb Sr As Sn Iron ore Li W Cr Co Nb* Ta* Ti conc In Mg comp Cd Zn Pb Th Ga Si Al Be Mo Ba Ge V Hf REM Zr Re Bi* Ni Cu Au Source: Chris Clugston, Continuously less and less, October Europe and the USA have already depleted a significant part of their useful resources Source: Magnus Ericsson (Raw Materials Group),

8 Consequences of metals scarcity Metals scarcity and energy scarcity reinforce one another this is a reinforcing feedback loop Transition towards sustainable economy is not feasible w.r.t. timeliness and scale without extreme measures so we need balancing feedback loops 15 What does this mean (globally)? Globally we ll loose, regionally there will be winners Access to resources: by owning them by buying them (with real purchasing power) or by barter by force Current / Short term demand > supply: precious metals (Ag,Au,most platinum group metals), most rare earth metals (lanthanides), a number of minor metals (Ga,Ge,In,Te), tungsten group metals (W,Ta,Zr,Nb,Mo),.. Long term demand > supply: all metals except Elements of Hope (include Fe,Al,Mg) 16

9 Technology softens the consequences, don t expect miracles Timeliness? (think in decades, not years) Economic scaleability? Technology has to abide with the laws of thermodynamics! Solutions increase risks and efforts related to next level of problems Are we making the right choices? 17 Metals scarcity interferes with energy transition Scientific American, November 2009 false sense of security! Requires around 3 million tons of neodymium; current annual production rate: 18,000 tons replace ALL fossil fuels by 2030 using: 490,000 1MW tidal turbines + 5, MW geothermal plants ,300MW hydroelectric plants + 3,800,000 5MW wind turbines + 720, MW wave converters + 1,700,000, MW rooftop photovoltaic systems + 49, MW concentrated solar power plants + 40, MW photovoltaic power plants 18

10 Metals scarcity interferes with energy transition replace ALL fossil fuels by 2030 using: 490,000 1MW tidal turbines + 5, MW geothermal plants ,300MW hydroelectric plants + 3,800,000 5MW wind turbines + 720, MW wave converters + 1,700,000, MW rooftop photovoltaic systems + 49, MW concentrated solar power plants + 40, MW photovoltaic power plants Requires around 90,000 tons (net) of gallium and 500,000 tons (net) of indium (2µm CIGS panels) or around 800,000 tons (net) of tellurium (2µm CdTe panels) or around 17,000 tons (net) of ruthenium (dye-sensitized panels) 19 Current annual primary production rates (estimates): gallium: around 100 tons indium: around 600 tons tellurium: around 450 tons ruthenium: around 40 tons Holistic view: high-tech enables us to dig our hole even deeper semiconductor & nanomaterial manufacturing: 1, ,000 MJ/kg conventional manufacturing: 1-10 MJ/kg 20 Source: Gutowski et al, Thermodynamic analysis of resources used in manufacturing processes, 2009

11 Adaptation framework with intrinsic benefits, applicable to energy as well as metals 1. Use less (involves human behaviour and managed austerity ) 2. Longer life 3. Re-use and recycle H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements 4. Substitute Na Mg Al Si Elements of Hope 5. Product and K Ca Fe process (re)design Ti Cr Mn Cu all other elements: 6. Buffers B F Ar Br Critical elements Frugal elements Source: Global Resource Depletion, Managed Austerity and the Elements of Hope (2010), ISBN Simplification and optimization instead of performance maximization yield huge leverage w.r.t. energy and materials input 22

12 Use existing knowledge and experience from a less abundant era ( re-search ) example: low alloy steel from the 1930s Source: SPF Works, USA Strong permanent magnets without exotic metals? MnAlC Graph: Matthias Katter, Industrial development of materials for sustainable development (magnets + magneto-caloric materials), September

13 Solar panels without exotic metals? replace transparent conductor by aluminium grid amorphous silicon without exotic doping Picture: PowerFilm 25 Conclusions We are facing energy shortages (demand exceeding supply) on a global scale Energy scarcity means metals scarcity, which in turn aggavates energy scarcity This in turn restricts the materialization of a new infrastructure needed to harvest diluted energy sources like sunshine and wind due to issues w.r.t. affordability and availability A viable adaptation framework should include a focus on the most abundant elements or the Elements of Hope together with using less (also in an absolute sense) or Managed Austerity This means vast opportunities for using the leverage of a selective retreat from performance maximization 26