Estimation of Body Costs

Transcription

1 Primary Materials Extraction Materials Refining & Processing Effluent/Waste Parts Fabrication Subassembly/ Component Manufacture Vehicle Assembly Vehicle Distribution, Sale & Use Vehicle Disposal Resources/Raw Materials Estimation of Body Costs Spreadsheet provided Lotus 12 version Excel version Basic Elements 4 key body components Roof Rear Floorpan Quarter Panel Inner Quarter Panel Outer Material Options Steel Aluminum SMC Steel Aluminum SMC Roof OK OK OK Rear Floorpan OK OK OK QP Inner OK OK NOK! QP Outer OK OK OK Material choices for key components propogate throughout entire BIW

2 Top-Level Spreadsheet Overview Four criteria components Body line inputs Model output summaries Material costs Criteria Component Input Specification of component material is the sole input Collects necessary inputs from the "Inputs" Sheet and moves it to the appropriate process model: Stamping for steel and aluminum SMC molding for SMC

3 Quarter Panel Inner CANNOT Be SMC Selecting SMC will generate errors! Body Line Inputs Basic Parameters Production Volume Wage Rate, Benefits and Overhead Capital Accounting Assumptions

4 Model Outputs Cost & mass of criteria parts BIW Cost and mass Material & part type distribution Model Outputs (continued) Cost summaries

5 Problem: Which Materials? Vehicle BIW Composition is at your discretion Decision variables to consider Vehicle Mass Vehicle Cost Recycling Targets Fuel Consumption/Vehicle Efficiency Production Volume Other factors Cost to operate Cost to recycle Operating Cost Effects Focus on Fuel Economy Repair Is A Secondary Effect Data Is Limited, and Highly Proprietary Insurance Agencies Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Depends Upon Vehicle Mass - F=ma Vehicle Aerodynamics - Wind resistance Vehicle Tires/Drivetrain - "Rolling" resistance Complex to predict Driving cycles

6 "First Principles" Mass/MPG Calculation Mile Per Gallon MPG = (Mass) Vehicle Mass (pounds) Rule Of Thumb Rule A 10% Reduction In Mass... Yields A 5% Increase In Fuel Economy So, If A Baseline 111 lb Vehicle Gets 21.6 mpg... MPG = (mass) Miles Per Gallon Rule "First Principles" Vehicle Mass (pounds)

7 Third Calculation - DeLuchi Some Scaling Modifications: Mass = FE FE Miles Per Gallon Vehicle Mass (pounds) 500 DeLuchi 10-5 Rule "First Principles" Rules of Thumb For Revenue & Landfill Expenses Cost of Landfill --- $120/ton Value of Ferrous Scrap --- $100/ton Value of Mixed Nonferrous Scrap --- $900/ton Separation Efficiencies % of ferrous recovered 90% of nonferrous recovered rest goes to landfill Dismantlers Get Some Off Before The Shredder: 50% of the Iron 80% of the Stainless 50% of the Aluminum 25% of the Copper 50% of the Glass 50% of the Rubber This is a function of the kinds of parts made of these materials. For the purposes of this analysis, use the regressions to calculate the costs of the baseline vehicle. Then use the top 4 bullet facts to look at the impact of changes in the vahicle material composition.

8 Baseline Vehicle Material Composition Plastics Aluminum Copper 49.5 Zinc 20.0 Lead ---- Other Ferrous 68.5 Iron Carbon Steel HSS 24.0 Stainless 1.0 Glass 85.0 Rubber 14.5 Fluids Other 8.0 Total "Unrecyclable" "Nonferrous" "Ferrous" "Unrecyclable" Estimated Costs of Recycling Processing Assumptions: Cost of Hulk - approx. $50 70 ton/hr shredder 8 hrs/day operation 4 hrs/day maintenance Transportation Costs - $0.10/ton/mi Regression: Cost / Vehicle Cost = F N U Processing Cost $20 $0 ($20) ($40) ($60) ($80) Regression Estimate Model Results Where: F = Car Ferrous Mass (lbs) N = Car Non-Ferrous Mass (lb) (not including lead) U = Car Unrecyclable Mass (lb) ($100) ($120) Sample #

9 Ferrous Metal Revenue - Estimated Assumed $100/ton shredded steel scrap Standard Processing $120 $100 Regression Results From Cost Model Where (all in pounds): F = total ferrous mass of car N = total nonferrous mass (net of battery lead) U = total mass of unrecyclable Result:-in dollars per vehicle F N U = Ferrous Revenue Ferrous Metal Revenue $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Regression Estimate Model Result Sample # Non-Ferrous Metal Revenues - Estimated More Detailed Estimate $60 Recovery Rates of Aluminum, Copper, and Zinc Different $50 Overall Mixed Metal Scrap Value Assumed At $0.45/lb Result-Dollars per vehicle: Revenue = Al Cu Zn Nonferrous Revenue $40 $0 $20 Where : Al = total aluminum in car Cu = total copper in car Zn = total zinc in car Note: Aluminum companies are being pressed to offer higher scrap values! $10 $ Regression Estimate Model Result Sample #

10 Landfill Cost Estimate Assumptions: Landfill Cost - $120/ton Separations Not 100% Efficient Results: Landfill Cost Per Vehicle Cost = F N U Where: F = Car Ferrous Mass (lbs) N = Car Non-Ferrous Mass (lb) (not including lead) U = Car Unrecyclable Mass (lb) Landfill Expense $10 $0 ($10) ($20) ($0) ($40) Regression Estimate Model Results ($50) Sample Analysis of Problem Necessary Analyses Costs of Production Costs of Operation Costs of Recycling Variations Production Volume Material Costs Lower Aluminum Costs? Variations in Scrap? Note Analysis Tops Out at One Assembly Plant - ~250,000/yr Third shift is expensive

11 Spreadsheet Mechanics Starting Assumption: You all already know how to do sensitivity analysis in spreadsheets (Data Table????) Online Resource To Remind You Supplied On WWW Site How To Do A Data Table When Varying Multiple Inputs? e.g., Four material specifications at a time? Scenario Table Construction Combined With VLOOKUP() Case # Rear FP QP Inner QP Outer Roof Scenario - 250,000 BIW/year $1,500 BIW Cost $1,400 $1,00 $1,200 $1,100 $1, $ Mass (lbs)

12 Scenario - 50,000 BIW/year $4,000 BIW Cost $,500 $,000 $2,500 $2, $1, Mass (lbs) Comparison of Scales 50,000/yr 250,000/yr $4,000 $4,000 BIW Cost $,000 $2, BIW Cost $,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1, $ Mass (lbs) $ Mass (lbs)