Recycling Strategies in Automotive Industries
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1 Recycling Strategies in Automotive Industries Frank R. Field, III Eighteen Year Effort at MIT to Study the Strategic Implications of Materials and Materials Processing Choices MIT Department Of Materials Science & Engineering Center For Technology, Policy & Industrial Development Emphasis: Application Of Analytic Methods To Detailed Case Studies Drawn From Current Strategic Industrial Issues Objective: Competitive Position Of Materials Evaluation Of Materials Processing Technologies Analysis Of Strategic Opportunities And Threats Evaluation Of The Promise/Limits Of Materials, Processes & Designs Slide 1-2 May, 2001
2 Methodological Approach Methodological Approach: Development Of Engineering And Economic Based Tools For Evaluation Of Alternatives In Advance Of Full Blown Development Technical Cost Modeling Lifecycle Cost And Emissions Tracking Decision Analysis Techniques Systems Dynamics Modeling Systems Approach to Strategic Decisionmaking Multiple Objectives Must Be Considered Simultaneously Interactive Effects Between Individual Process/Material Choices Functional Equivalence Needed for Meaningful Comparisons Synthesis Of Results Into A Description Of Materials Competitiveness Vehicle Recycling - A Recurring Automobile Issue Depending on How You Look At It, This Is The Second (or Third) Time Around Well-Established Vehicle Recycling Infrastructure Economics Of Infrastructure Dominated By Shredder Economics Recovery of Scrap Metals, Particularly Ferrous Metals Policies Driven By A Conventional View Of Recycling Loss Old Car Dismantler Hulk Parts Large Castings Battery Catalytic Converter Shredder Steel Scrap Heavy Blend Nonferrous Separator Aluminum Zinc Red Metals Processing Gain Slide 3-4 May, 2001
3 Overview: Latest Version of Recycling Goals By 2006, Re-use/recycle 80% of vehicles by weight Re-use/recover 85% of vehicles by weight Design for 85% recyclability and 95% recoverability By 2015 Re-use/recycle 85% of vehicles by weight Re-use/recover 95% of vehicles by weight Automakers are to integrate as much recycled material into car as possible Problem: How To Reconcile These Objectives With Other Environmental Goals? Changes In Automobile Materials - in type and quantity Pounds/average vehicle 4,000 3,000 2,000 Other Ferrous Non-ferrous Plastics 1, Year Other Ferrous NonFerrous Plastics Pounds/average vehicle 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Year Source: AMM WWW site Slide 5-6 May, 2001
4 Shredder Economics - Versus Vehicle Material Content US Average Vehicle Material Content Pounds/Car US Shredder Economics $20/Ton Tipping Fee $/ton Ferrous Scrap Other Ferrous Non-ferrous Plastics Nonferrous Ferrous Feedstock Processing Vehicle Model Year Vehicle Model Year Recycling An Economic Activity With Many Participants Last User? Old Car Parts Used Parts Market Waste Dismantler Shredder Hulk Scrap Steel Ferrous Scrap Market Landfill NF Blend Non-Ferrous Separator Al, Cu, Zn Non-Ferrous Scrap Market Slide 7-8 May, 2001
5 Implications Of "Increased Recycling" For Existing Infrastructure Last User New Markets? Old Car Parts Used Parts Market Product Dismantler Waste New Processors Waste Shredder Hulk Scrap Steel Ferrous Scrap Market NF Blend Landfill Non-Ferrous Separator Al, Cu, Zn Non-Ferrous Scrap Market Another Recycling Market - Beverage Cans Cans Recovered Cans Produced Recycling Rate 120% 100% Cans (billions) % 60% 40% Recycling Rate 20 20% % Year Slide 9-10 May, 2001
6 So, Again, What Are The Goals? By 2006, Re-use/recycle 80% of vehicles by weight Re-use/recover 85% of vehicles by weight Design for 85% recyclability and 95% recoverability By 2015 Re-use/recycle 85% of vehicles by weight Re-use/recover 95% of vehicles by weight Automakers are to integrate as much recycled material into car as possible Problem: How To Reconcile These Objectives With Other Environmental Goals? Issues In The Expansion Of Recycling Technological Separation Is Difficult & Expensive Separation Is Key To (Re)Processing Efficiency and Product Quality Ferrous, Nonferrous, and Polymeric Materials ALL Subject To These Limitations Economic Primary Materials Markets Focus Upon Purity/Quality Of Material Secondary Markets Balance Costs Of Purification Against Market Demand Ceiling On Price - Virgin Material Or Ores/Feedstocks Markets Reflect Tension Between Product Value & Separation Expenses Political Unacceptability Of Disposal & Thermal Recovery Unwillingness To Levy Fees On (Last) Vehicle User Slide May, 2001
7 Pending European Issue: Compliance Costs Which technologies are necessary for achieving regulations cost-effectively? Radical technologies are more costly at existing benefits However, at higher standards, incremental change may end up costing more Cumulative cost Cost Curves for Incremental and Radical Scenarios Incremental Radical Benefits Incremental vs. Radical Scenarios Incremental Method "End-of-pipe" Technology Emphasis recovery Infrastructure Existing New Investment Minor Market Secondary plastics market Radical Industry consolidation Mass dismantling, vertical integration New with SME's exiting Major Secondary parts market Slide May, 2001
8 Recovery or More Dismantling? Cumulative Cost/Vehicle $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Cost of Recovery and Dismantling Options Recovery Dismantle Dismantle w/ IDIS 0% 50% 75% 85% 90% 95% 100% % recovery Conclusions From a recycling perspective, current infrastructure, with additional NF separation, can reach 80% recycling with today's vehicle material mix, if... Shredders and NF separators operate BAT A secondary market for plastics arises Current secondary metals and hulk prices improve However, additional investment will be needed for higher recycling/recovery levels of 85%-95% investments around $220 million Dismantling path may require $1.2 to $1.9 billion depending on retrofitting or greenfield sites Consolidation of facilites may require $1.1 to $2.4 billion in new investments Slide May, 2001
9 Conclusions (continued) Radical scenario of facilities consolidation may not be cost effective at any recovery level, unless More parts are recovered for re-use to supplement higher cost of additional dismantling Infrastructure in place to collect materials and/or resale/remanufacuture parts Outside subsidy likely necessary Otherwise, recovery is the most cost-effective scenario, unless Stakeholders are willing to encourage dismantling by providing subsidies of $50-$150 per vehicle to maintain a profitable industry Conclusions, Generally "You Can't Push A Rope" Recycling Goals Cannot Be Just About Technology Forcing Governments Have Key Roles That Cannot Be Achieved By Industry Monitor The Operation Of The Recycling Industry Guarantee Access To Secondary Markets For Credible Players Assure Flow Of Used Vehicles Into Secondary Markets Remove Market Distortions Favoring Virgin Materials Provide Flexibility To Private Sector Participants In The Market Avoid Prescribing Or Proscribing Specific Technical Arrangements Assure The Economic Viability Of The Overall Recycling System Individual Elements Within The System Slide May, 2001
10 Industry Has A Key Role As Well Principle: Act To Improve Product Recyclability Promote Material Labeling And Information Standards Develop New Fastening Technologies That Simplify Disassembly Remove Industry Barriers To Use Of Appropriately Reconditioned And Remanufactured Components Choose Materials That Improve Vehicle Recyclability Ease Of Species Segregation Employ Secondary Materials Support R&D Into Secondary Materials & Processing Technologies Develop Design Tools Supporting Evaluation of Alternatives Slide May, 2001
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