Economic Futures for the Auckland Region

Transcription

1 Economic Futures for the Auckland Region Dr Catherine Murray University of Auckland Business School 15 th September 2009

2 Outline of Presentation Introduce the Economic Futures Project (ARC) and the Economic Futures Model (Market Economics) Explain how the Economic Futures Model works Identify any synergies with transport modeling and transport sector

3 Economic Futures project - background Identify a range of potential economic futures for the Auckland region 2 Parts - Part 1: Knowledge Base for scenarios development (December 2008) - Part 2: Scenarios for economic development (April 2009) Development of 3 scenarios, and modelling to 2031 Modelling undertaken by Market Economics Ltd; Qualitative data and evidence collected from industry and stakeholders by the ARC calibrate the model against real world observations.

4 Economic Futures Model its purpose Not a crystal ball A planning tool: feeds into the land use and transport models Holistic: economic, social and environment assessment of medium to long term futures Attempt to integrate fragmented and incomplete datasets particularly link between economic and environmental datasets Goods Labour Society Economy Funded by FRST Environment

5 Economic Futures Model its scope Based on multi-regional input-output table capturing impacts in the study area, other regions and nationally Scenario model which traces the implications of growth by 48 economic sectors and households over time Establishes a business-as-usual scenario of future economic growth based on business and population demographics, export trends and existing interdependencies

6 How does the EFM Work? Comparative Static Multi-Regional Input-Output Table Household & export projections for all goods and services consumed under each scenario Economy growth rates Key socio-economic measures: output, value added, employment, businesses, occupations Key environmental measures energy by type, emissions by type, land use, solid waste, ecosystem services

7 Industries How does the EFM Work? Industries Final Demands Study Area Rest of Region Rest of New Zealand Study Area Rest of Region Rest of NZ Gross Output Study Area Rest of Region Rest of NZ Primary Inputs Gross Input Input-output analysis invented by Wassily Leontief in the 1930s Tracks inter-industry financial flows within an economy Based on these flows, changes in final consumption are evaluated

8 Structure of Economic Futures Model Consumption Population effect Age structure Base year ratios of FTEs to output by industry Base year occupation structure by industry Consumption profile base year Exports base year Export growth rates Household final demand Export final demand Total final demand Input-Output Framework Labour productivity Total output by industry Employment by industry Employment by occupation by industry GFKF base year GFKF final demand Value added by industry GFKF growth rates Base year ratios of value added to output by industry

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10 Industry Classification: Transport (ANZSIC 96) Road freight transport Long distance bus transport Short distance bus transport Taxi and other road passenger transport Rail transport International sea transport Coastal water transport Inland water transport Scheduled international air transport Scheduled domestic air transport Non scheduled air and space transport Pipeline transport Transport not elsewhere classified Road Transport Other transport services eg travel agency, road freight forwarding Water and Rail Transport Air transport services and storage

11 Exports within the EFM

12 Review of model User friendly Robust for ARC s purposes, especially with qualitative data Good short to medium term futures Export growth based on national level time-series projections Assumes inter-industry linkages remain constant across time Ignores price change effects

13 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS?